PAUP Business Land

Summary of Land Demand by Activity and PAUP Supply

Prepared for: Independent Hearing Panel

Date: March 2016

Status: Draft

PAUP Business Land

Summary of Land Demand by Activity and PAUP Supply

Independent Hearing Panel

Date of this version: 18/03/2016
Report author(s):

Rodney Yeoman Market Economics

Ting Huang Auckland Council
Greg Akehurst Market Economics

Disclaimer
Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability of the information contained in this report,
neither Market Economics Limited nor any of its employees shall be held liable for the information, opinions and
forecasts expressed in this report.

www.me.co.nz

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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... 6
INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................10
BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................... 10
OBJECTIVES ...................................................................................................................................... 11
REPORT STRUCTURE ........................................................................................................................... 11

STAGE 1: INDUSTRY GROWTH AND ACTIVITY ............................................12

1.1

STAGE 1.1 PROJECT GROWTH BY BUSINESS SECTOR.................................................................... 12

1.2

STAGE 1.2 BUSINESS SECTORS TO PAUP ACTIVITY..................................................................... 14

1.3

STAGE 1 RESULTS .............................................................................................................. 17

STAGE 2: LIGHT INDUSTRY EXISTING ACTIVITY ..........................................19

2.1

STAGE 2.1 EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS OF LIGHT INDUSTRY ..................................................... 19

2.2

STAGE 2.2 PRIMARY RESEARCH OF THE LIGHT INDUSTRY ZONE ..................................................... 20

2.3

STAGE 2.2 RESULTS ........................................................................................................... 22

STAGE 3: MARKET OUTCOMES..................................................................24

3.1

STAGE 3.1 LAND USE INTENSITY BY SECTOR AND ZONE ............................................................... 24

3.2

STAGE 3.2 LAND USE DEMAND BY SECTOR AND ZONE ................................................................ 26

3.3

STAGE 3.3 PAUP LAND USE CAPACITY BY SECTOR AND ZONE ...................................................... 29

3.4

STAGE 3.4 LAND USE OUTLOOK BY PAUP ZONE....................................................................... 40

3.5

STAGE 3 FINDINGS............................................................................................................. 51

Figures
FIGURE 4-1: MAXIMUM THEORETICAL FLOORSPACE - COMMERCIAL ZONES PAUP 2013 TO 2015 ...................... 34
FIGURE 4-2: MAXIMUM THEORETICAL FLOORSPACE INDUSTRIAL ZONES PAUP 2013 TO 2015 ........................ 34
FIGURE 4-3: METROPOLITAN CENTRE ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ........... 42
FIGURE 4-4: TOWN CENTRE ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ........................ 43
FIGURE 4-5: LOCAL CENTRE ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ........................ 44
FIGURE 4-6: NEIGHBOURHOOD CENTRE ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ......... 45
FIGURE 4-7: MIXED USE ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ............................ 46
FIGURE 4-8: GENERAL BUSINESS ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT .................. 47
FIGURE 4-9: BUSINESS PARK ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ....................... 48
FIGURE 4-10: HEAVY INDUSTRY ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ................... 49
FIGURE 4-11: LIGHT INDUSTRY ZONE OUTLOOK TO 2026: DEMAND AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT .................... 50

Tables
TABLE 1-1: REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY AEFM INDUSTRY, 2013-2041 (MEDIUM AND HIGH) ..... 13
TABLE 1-2: PROJECTED RETAIL PAUP ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 2013-2041 ....................................... 15
TABLE 1-3: PROJECTED OFFICE PAUP ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT 2013-2041 ................................................... 15
TABLE 1-4: PROJECTED FOOD AND BEVERAGE PAUP ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT 2013-2041 ................................ 15
TABLE 1-5: PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL PAUP ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT 2013-2041 ............................................. 16
TABLE 1-6: PROJECTED FACILITIES AND OTHER PAUP ACTIVITY TYPE EMPLOYMENT 2013-2041 ........................ 17
TABLE 2-1: FIELD AND DESKTOP SURVEY BY LOCAL BOARD - PERCENTAGE OF LAND AREA BY USE ........................... 21
TABLE 3-1: AVERAGE FAR FOR PAUP ACTIVITY TABLE 1, 2 - LOCAL BOARD GROUP ......................................... 25
TABLE 3-2: AVERAGE WSR BY PAUP ACTIVITY TABLE AND LOCAL BOARD GROUP ............................................ 25
TABLE 3-3: LAND DEMAND PAUP ACTIVITY TABLE 1, 2 - 2026 HECTARES PER ANNUM ..................................... 29

TABLE 3-4: VACANT LAND BY PAUP ACTIVITY TABLES AND LOCAL BOARD GROUP ............................................ 32
TABLE 3-5: VACANT POTENTIAL LAND BY PAUP ACTIVITY TABLES AND LOCAL BOARD GROUP ............................. 33
TABLE 3-6: CONTEMPORARY SCENARIO POTENTIAL FLOORSPACE (000 M2) BY PAUP ACTIVITY ZONE AND LOCAL
BOARD GROUP .................................................................................................................................. 36
TABLE 3-7: MINOR BUSINESS AREAS POTENTIAL FLOORSPACE (000 M2) BY PAUP ACTIVITY ZONE AND LOCAL
BOARD GROUP CONTEMPORARY SCENARIO* ......................................................................................... 37
TABLE 3-8: FUZ LAND BY PAUP ACTIVITY TABLE AND LOCAL BOARD GROUP HECTARES ..................................... 38
TABLE 3-9: FUZ FLOORSPACE BY PAUP ACTIVITY TABLE 1 AND 2 ................................................................. 39

Executive Summary
This report has been produced to provide an abridged summary of the technical study
undertaken for the Independent Hearing Panel (Panel) on the planned provision of business
zoned land in the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan (PAUP). The Panel, upon hearing the
evidence and submissions in the Business zoning Topics (Topic 051-054), prepared a number
of key questions for Council. These matters required further economic analysis with a
particular focus on the Light Industry zone.
The questions (including sub-questions) were arranged as follows;
1. Question 1: What is the forecast growth by business sector for activities that are
likely to be focused on business zoned land, including Light Industry zoned areas?
And how are these activities provided for in the Activity Tables by zone?
2. Question 2: What is the proportion of business sector types that exist within Light
Industry zones (i.e., analysis showing the spectrum of existing activities from light
industrial production activities to commercial activities)?
3. Question 3: In light of the above, how do the PAUP provisions meet the projected
need for zoned opportunity, by zone? How does the supply of PAUP land compare to
future demand by business sector?
This report provides a description of the summary of results developed in the technical study
to address the Panels three questions. In this executive summary we provide a brief outline
of these results.
Question 1: What is the forecast growth by business sector for activities that are likely to be
focused on business zoned land, including Light Industry zoned areas? And how are these
activities provided for in the Activity Tables by zone? Findings
The first question from the Panel is addressed in Section 2 - Industry Growth and Activity.
The following key findings were made,

It is important to note that a large proportion of employment in the Auckland

economy is currently located in areas outside of the business zones covered by the
PAUP Activity Tables 1 and 2. The economic forecasts indicate that 36% of expected
growth in employment could be located in non-business zones, with net additional
employment of between 52,000 (Medium) to 65,000 (High) by 2026. The
employment in areas covered by the PAUP Business zones could grow by 101,000
(Medium) or 133,000 (High) by 2041.

Most growth in employment is expected in economic sectors that generally prefer to

locate in commercial zones (or in non-business zones). The forecasts indicate that
almost half of the growth in employment is expected in four industries, health,

professional services, retail and education. It therefore follows that most demand
for business floorspace will be focussed in commercial zones.

Third, employment in construction and wholesale sectors are also expected to grow
strongly and these industries tend to locate in industrial zones. These industries
tend to be land extensive, so we expect that demand for industrial zoned land will
likely grow (including Light Industry zone).

Finally, looking in detail at the PAUP Activity Tables we find that much of the growth
in employment in business zones will be located in a small number of the PAUP
Activity types (see list of nine PAUP Activity types below). These PAUP Activity types
are generally more enabled within commercial zones in PAUP Activity Table 1
rather than Activity Table 2. This indicates that most of the growth in employment is
expected to locate within the commercial zones (Activity Table 1).

Results from the modelling process show that most of the growth in employment in these
zones is expected to be located in the following PAUP Activity types,

Offices greater than 500m2 GFA per site: This activity accounts for 16% of
expected growth in employment. With net additional employment of between
23,000 (Medium) or 29,000 (High) by 2026.

Industrial activities: This activity accounts for 7% of expected growth in

employment. With net additional employment of between 11,000 (Medium) or
14,000 (High) by 2026.

Offices up to 500m2 GFA per site: Accounts for 5% of expected growth in

employment. With net additional employment expected to be between 8,000
(Medium) or 10,000 (High) by 2026.

Offices up to 100m2 GFA per site: This activity accounts for 4% of expected
growth in employment. With net additional employment of between 5,000
(Medium) to 7,000 (High) expected by 2026.

The core retail PAUP Activity types1 account for 5% of expected growth in
employment. With net additional employment of between 7,000 (Medium) to
9,000 (High) expected by 2026. The balance of retail growth is located outside these
business zones e.g. the Central City Zone, or outside of PAUP business zoned land.

Healthcare facilities and Hospitals PAUP Activity types accounts for 4% of

expected growth in employment. With net additional employment of between
6,000 (Medium) to 7,000 (High) expected by 2026.

These nine PAUP Activity types combined represent two thirds of the expected growth in
employment within the PAUP zones governed by the PAUP Activity Tables.
1

Retail up to 200m2 GFA per tenancy, Retail exceeding 200m2 per tenancy and up to 450m2 GFA per tenancy
and Retail greater than 450m2 GFA per tenancy.

Question 2: What is the proportion of business sector types that exist within Light Industry
zones (i.e., analysis showing the spectrum of existing activities from light industrial
production activities to commercial activities)? Findings.
The second question from the Panel is addressed in Section 3 Light Industry Existing
Activity, below. The following key findings were made,

First, the EDA suggests a close match in most locations between Light Industry zoned
land and industrial activities that the zoning would be expected to accommodate.
The spectrum of activities in the Light Industry zone is mostly related to industrial
production activities. However, the analysis also suggested that there are outliers
which have a wider spectrum of activity, in particular a significant share of
commercial or non-industrial activities. The EDA identified 75 meshblocks in the
Light Industry zone as potential outliers for further research to understand why they
differed from the majority, and to determine whether zoning changes need to be
considered. The properties in these outliers made up about 14% of all the 8,087
parcels in Light Industry zones.

Second, the primary research collected data for approximately 91% of all properties
in the Light Industry zone. We have conducted a field survey covering properties in;
each of the potential outlier meshblocks, other meshblocks that were contiguous to
the outliers and some other meshblocks of particular interest identified through the
hearing process. In total, the field survey covered 58% of all properties in the Light
Industry zone. We have also supplemented the field survey data with a desktop
survey, in which we collected data for 33% of Light Industry zone properties.
We consider that the primary research confirms that there is a strong match
between the Light Industry zone and industrial activity (83% of land use is industrial,
retail 8%, other 6%, office 3%). However there are some meshblocks that are
outliers with a wider spectrum of activities, i.e. with a higher proportion of nonindustrial activity. But when these outliers are placed within their specific
geographic context the mismatch is not as apparent given the activities that occur
in surrounding areas.

In conclusion, a small percentage of the Light Industry zone (15% of meshblocks) has
significant amounts of non-industrial activity. However these outliers should be viewed in
their local context.
The thorough survey of Light Industry zone shows that much of the activity in these zones is
industrial in nature, with the bulk of activity occurring down driveways and off the main
streets. While generally, there may be a narrow strip of non-industrial activity (retail/office
etc.) along the main roads there are large areas of industrial activity in behind, on the side
streets and down long driveways.

This makes sense because if retail and other non-industrial services are seeking to locate in
industrial areas, they will do so on the main transport routes where there visibility is highest.
This should not influence the view that the vast majority of these areas are industrial in
nature (83% on average).
There is very little evidence that Light Industry zones within the region are infiltrated with
non-industrial activities and therefore limited evidence to support rezoning on the basis of
existing uses not matching the zoning provisions.
We consider that the IHP has to consider the unusual activity in the outliers alongside the
more standard activity in the local areas, in their determinations.
Questions 3: In light of the above, how do the PAUP provisions meet the projected need for
zoned opportunity, by zone? How does the supply of PAUP land compare to future demand
by business sector? Findings
The third question from the Panel Is addressed in Section 4 Market Outcomes. The
following key findings were made,

Generally, there is sufficient vacant and vacant potential land in the industrial zones
to accommodate expected demand, with most areas having over 13 years of land
under both the medium or high growth forecasts (i.e. enough supply until after
2026). In detail, there is a longer term supply (over decade and half), across most of
the Local Board Groups for Light Industry and Heavy Industry zones.

Generally, there is sufficient development potential in the commercial zones to

accommodate expected demand. In most cases the forecast demand can be
accommodated even if the market is assumed to be frozen at historic levels of
development intensity (i.e. Contemporary scenario).

There are some instances where demand exceeds the historic level of development
intensity if projected into the future. In these case the market will need to increase
development intensity beyond historic levels (mostly in Urban Central and across
Auckland in the Neighbourhood Centre zone).
However, the increase in
development intensity is well below the large amount of enabled development
provided by the PAUP rules (generally less than 20% of the PAUP enabled
development).

This study has also assessed the demand and supply of commercial and industrial
land over the time horizon of the Auckland Plan. We compared the medium and
high economic forecasts to 2041 and the supply provided in the PAUP zones and the
FUZ (as suggested by the FULSS). The results indicate that in most zones and
locations demand for commercial space and industrial land is not expected to exceed
development potential as enabled by the PAUP and FUZ to 2041. We find that
potential exists within the PAUP to facilitate growth and that the PAUP will not be a
constraint to economic growth in the short to medium term.

Introduction
This report has been produced to provide a summary of results from the
technical study2 undertaken for the Independent Hearing Panel (IHP) on the
planned provision of business zoned land in the Proposed Auckland Unitary
Plan (PAUP).
The technical study was conducted with the primary goal of answering the
IHPs questions related to the following matters:
The proportion of existing activities in the Light Industry zone on the
spectrum from light industrial production to commercial activities; and
The extent to which the PAUP business zone provisions (supply) meet
the projected need (demand) for business land/space/opportunity, by
business zone.
The reader should refer to the technical study for detailed description of the
methods applied to obtain the results presented in this summary report.

Background
In line with establishing an evidence base for the PAUP, Auckland Council commissioned
research on the demand and supply of business land in Auckland. The aim of that work was
to provide an assessment of whether the zoning in the PAUP was commensurate with the
existing and growth needs of businesses.3
Towards the conclusion of the Topic 051-054 hearings, the IHP requested that the Council's
economists, Ms Fairgray and Mr Akehurst, be recalled. Ms Fairgray4 and Mr Akehurst were
asked a number of questions by the Panel that required further economic analysis on the
type and nature of existing activity in the PAUP business zones, and the degree to which
growth projections could be disaggregated and aligned with zone provisions to ensure
growth was appropriately accommodated. While the focus is on Light Industry zones, all
business zones will be covered.5

Yeoman, R. Huang, T. and Akehurst, G. (2016) PAUP Business Land: Further Analysis for Independent Hearings
Panel.
3
See evidence presented to the IHP by Mr Akehurst, Ms Fairgray and Mr Nunns on Topic 051-054 and Topic 013,
3.1 Commercial and Industrial Growth. Also see background report Nunns, .P (2014) PAUP Business Growth:
Analysis of projected floorspace demand and modelled plan-enabled capacity
4
Mr Yeoman and Ms Huang have replaced Ms Fairgray.
5
Auckland Council (2015) 051-054 - Auckland Council Memorandum 2 (Revised Economic Analysis of Light
Industry Zone).

10

Objectives
The questions (including sub-questions) were arranged as follows;
1. Question 1: What is the forecast growth by business sector for activities that are
likely to be focused on business zoned land, including Light Industry zoned areas?
And how are these activities provided for in the Activity Tables by zone6?
2. Question 2: What is the proportion of business sector types that exist within Light
Industry zones (i.e., analysis showing the spectrum of existing activities from light
industrial production activities to commercial activities)?
3. Question 3: In light of the above, how do the PAUP provisions meet the projected
need for zoned opportunity, by zone? How does the supply of PAUP land compare to
future demand by business sector?

Report Structure
The report utilises the structure of the IHP request and the technical study, with the
following sections;
1. Stage 1: Industry Growth and Activity
2. Stage 2: Light Industry Existing Activity
3. Stage 3: Market Outcomes
4. Further/Other Analysis
Each of these sections provide an abridged description of the analysis undertaken and
focuses on the findings. The report then provides a summary of the findings in the final
section.

In this report the term economic sectors was specifically developed to match the PAUP Activity types. There
are a total of 201 economic sectors used in the following concordance, relationships and modelling discussed
from Section 2 onwards.

11

Stage 1: Industry Growth and Activity

The first set of questions are,
What is the forecast growth by business sector for activities that are
likely to be focused on business zoned land, including Light Industry
zone areas? And how are these activities provided for in the Activity
Tables by zone?
These questions have been assessed in two sub steps,
establish a set of economic projections for all of Auckland (see Stage
1.1)
develop a link between the economic projections and the PAUP Activity
Tables (see Stage 1.2).
These two steps allow us to understand how the economy is expected to grow
and how this growth translates to activities defined in the PAUP Activity
Tables.

1.1

Stage 1.1 Project growth by business sector

The purpose of this part of Stage 1 is to update the projections for the Auckland economy
and business sectors. 7 The projections were developed using the Auckland Economic
Futures Model (AEFM)8, which is an economic model of the Auckland Economy that provides
projections of employment, GDP and other key metrics across 48 industries9. The same
AEFM was used in the previous study of business land demand, however this particular study
utilises the latest model developed in late 2015.
The projections show the following,

Employment in Auckland is expected to grow by 145,000 (Medium) to 182,000

(High) by 2026 (end of the PAUP) which is equivalent to growth of 22% to 28%
compared to 2013. The annual growth rate is expected to range between 1.6% and
1.9% per annum over this period.
Employment in Auckland is expected to grow by 274,000 (Medium) to 363,000
(High) by 2041 (over the horizon of the Auckland Plan) which is equivalent to growth
of 42% to 56% compared to 2013. The annual growth rate is expected to decrease
over the longer term, with growth ranging between 1.0% and 1.3% per annum
between 2026 and 2041.

The previous research on business land utilised models and data from 2013.
Market Economics (2014) Economic Future Model.
9
It segments the Auckland economy into 48 sectors based on ANZSIC coding and projects growth in each sector.
The sum of the sectors is the total economic group anticipated for Auckland Region.
8

12

Much of the growth in employment is expected in industries that generally prefer to

locate in commercial or non-business zones. The projections indicate that almost
half of employment growth is expected in four industries, health, professional
services retail and education.
However, employment in construction and wholesale sectors is also expected to
grow strongly and these industries tend to locate in industrial or non-centre zones.

Table 1-1: Regional Employment Projections by AEFM Industry, 2013-2041

(MEDIUM and HIGH)
Employment: ECs Projections [ECs]
Industry
Horticulture & fruit growing
Sheep, beef cattle & grain farming
Dairy cattle farming
Poultry, deer & other livestock farming
Forestry & logging
Fishing & aquaculture
Agri, forestry & fishing support svcs
Mining, quarrying, exploration & support svcs
Oil & gas extraction
Meat & meat product manuf
Dairy product manuf
Other food manuf
Beverage & tobacco product manuf
Textile & apparel manuf
Wood product manuf
Pulp, paper product manuf
Printing
Petroleum & coal product manuf
Chem, polymer & rubber product manuf
Non-metallic mineral product manuf
Primary metal & metal product manuf
Fabricated metal product manuf
Transport equipment manuf
Machinery & equipment manuf
Furniture & other manuf
Electricity generation & supply
Gas supply
Water, sewerage, drainage & waste svcs
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation & food svcs
Road transport
Other trans & support, postal & storage svcs
Air & space transport
Info media & telecommunications
Finance
Insurance & superannuation funds
Auxiliary finance & insurance svcs
Rental, hiring & real estate svcs
Ownership of owner-occupied dwellings
Prof, scientific, technical, admin & support svcs
Central govt admin, defence & public safety
Local govt admin
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation svcs
Personal & other svcs
Industry Total

2013
3,006
439
382
378
321
57
724
321
6
2,634
1,437
10,140
2,822
4,234
2,648
1,536
4,503
219
8,863
2,977
2,186
8,249
4,495
10,639
3,643
1,176
131
2,583
34,759
53,081
62,704
43,152
9,581
16,080
6,527
17,489
15,279
6,250
6,291
10,768
0
106,576
23,597
6,883
54,151
63,443
10,990
21,806
650,156

Medium
2026
2041
3,667
4,238
474
504
407
428
427
459
445
417
72
86
943
1,083
410
468
0
0
2,854
2,976
1,515
1,561
12,138
13,630
3,107
3,268
4,421
4,631
3,706
3,004
1,830
1,810
5,353
5,998
269
307
10,976
12,721
3,664
4,121
2,689
3,042
10,075
11,536
5,323
5,956
14,785
18,344
4,348
4,909
1,579
1,969
174
216
3,492
4,392
44,964
53,407
64,272
73,992
81,121
97,557
49,164
53,765
11,479
12,929
18,980
21,359
7,435
8,040
20,049
21,794
19,152
22,383
7,781
9,030
7,839
9,120
13,925
16,817
0
0
127,849
143,483
29,560
34,871
8,625
10,173
58,897
63,435
85,343
116,754
13,190
14,522
26,007
28,789
794,775
924,294

High
2026
2041
3,844
4,644
488
537
419
456
443
493
487
473
76
95
996
1,189
431
510
0
0
2,930
3,152
1,554
1,652
12,624
14,734
3,234
3,518
4,596
4,998
4,277
3,538
1,913
1,984
5,599
6,561
282
336
11,564
14,047
3,864
4,537
2,837
3,349
10,606
12,709
5,568
6,512
15,972
21,033
4,535
5,347
1,653
2,156
182
236
3,647
4,789
47,481
58,805
67,750
81,961
84,532
106,174
50,858
57,874
12,069
14,249
19,837
23,344
7,763
8,781
20,935
23,791
20,055
24,558
8,125
9,872
8,203
9,992
14,552
18,381
0
0
134,322
158,080
30,731
37,820
8,965
11,029
61,828
70,626
88,863
126,964
13,727
15,736
27,162
31,393
832,379 1,013,015

High

Medium
2013 - 2026

22%
8%
7%
13%
39%
26%
30%
28%
-100%
8%
5%
20%
10%
4%
40%
19%
19%
23%
24%
23%
23%
22%
18%
39%
19%
34%
33%
35%
29%
21%
29%
14%
20%
18%
14%
15%
25%
24%
25%
29%
0%
20%
25%
25%
9%
35%
20%
19%
22%

2013 - 2041

41%
15%
12%
21%
30%
51%
50%
46%
0%
13%
9%
34%
16%
9%
13%
18%
33%
40%
44%
38%
39%
40%
33%
72%
35%
67%
65%
70%
54%
39%
56%
25%
35%
33%
23%
25%
46%
44%
45%
56%
0%
35%
48%
48%
17%
84%
32%
32%
42%

2013 - 2026

2013 - 2041

28%
11%
10%
17%
52%
33%
38%
34%
0%
11%
8%
24%
15%
9%
62%
25%
24%
29%
30%
30%
30%
29%
24%
50%
24%
41%
39%
41%
37%
28%
35%
18%
26%
23%
19%
20%
31%
30%
30%
35%
0%
26%
30%
30%
14%
40%
25%
25%
28%

54%
22%
19%
30%
47%
67%
64%
59%
0%
20%
15%
45%
25%
18%
34%
29%
46%
53%
58%
52%
53%
54%
45%
98%
47%
83%
80%
85%
69%
54%
69%
34%
49%
45%
35%
36%
61%
58%
59%
71%
0%
48%
60%
60%
30%
100%
43%
44%
56%

13

1.2

Stage 1.2 Business sectors to PAUP activity

The second assessment in Stage 1 was to analyse, at a detailed level, the concordance
between projected business sector growth and the PAUP Activity types (as shown in the
PAUP Activity Tables for business zones), with a focus on the Light Industry zones.10 This
assessment seeks to provide a better understanding of the (at times) ambiguous relationship
between proposed zoning and projected land use.
We established a concordance table that reflects the relationships between; PAUP Activity
types and AEFM business sectors. The concordance tables enable the distribution of AEFM
projected employment growth within each business sector, to different PAUP Activity types.
In summary,
1) Rural and Special Zones: The n/a PAUP Activity type represents less than 2% of
employment in the Auckland Region. The model indicates that employment in this
PAUP activity type was around 15,000 in 2013 and could grow to 18,000 (Medium)
or 19,000 (High) by 2026 (the lifespan of the PAUP). By 2041 (Auckland Plan period),
employment in this PAUP activity could grow to 20,000 (Medium) or 22,000 (High).
2) Home Based: In total the home based relationship accounts for 20% of
employment in the Auckland Region. The model indicates that employment in this
PAUP Activity type was around 131,000 in 2013 and could grow to 161,000
(Medium) or 168,000 (High) by 2026. By 2041, the employment in this PAUP activity
could grow to 192,000 (Medium) or 210,000 (High).
3) Retail Activity: In total, the retail relationships account for 9% of employment in the
Auckland Region. The model results indicates that employment in the core retail
PAUP Activity types (first three in Table 1-2) was around 25,000 in 2013 and is
expected to see strong growth to either 32,000 (Medium) or 33,000 (High) by 2026.
By 2041, the employment in these PAUP Activity types could grow to 38,000
(Medium) or 40,000 (High).
The model indicates that employment in the supermarket retail PAUP Activity types
(next four in Table 1-2) was around 13,000 in 2013 and could grow to 17,000
(Medium and High) by 2026. By 2041, the employment in these PAUP Activity types
could grow to 20,000 (Medium) or 22,000 (High).
Seen in Table 1-2 other retail PAUP Activity types show minimal employment growth
in the future.

10

The Activity Tables can be found on the Auckland Unitary Plan Independent Hearings Panel website, 051-054 Auckland Council CLOSING REMARKS - Annexure A.pdf.

14

Table 1-2: Projected Retail PAUP Activity Employment Growth 2013-2041

Office Activity: In total, the office relationships assigned 27% of employment in the
Auckland Region. Employment in the core office PAUP Activity types (first three in
Table 1-3) was around 174,000 in 2013 and is expected to grow strongly to 2026 and
on to 2041. Employment in the accessory office PAUP Activity types was around
4,000 in 2013 and is expected to show minimal growth to 2026 and on to 2041 (from
5,000 to 6,000).

Table 1-3: Projected Office PAUP Activity Employment 2013-2041

4) Food and Beverage Activity: In total, the food and beverage relationships assigned
4% of employment in the Auckland Region.
Employment in the Food and Beverage PAUP Activity types (first two Table 1-4) was
around 19,000 in 2013 and is expected to grow strongly to between 21,000
(Medium) or 22,000 (High) by 2026. The employment in these PAUP Activity types
could grow to 23,000 (Medium) or 25,000 (High) by 2041.
The model indicates that employment in the Drive-through restaurants PAUP activity
was around 2,000 in 2013 and is expected to grow by 2,000 by 2041.

Table 1-4: Projected Food and Beverage PAUP Activity Employment 2013-2041
PAUP Activity Description
Food and beverage up to 120m2
Food and beverage
Drive-through restaurant

2013
1,097
17,821
1,713

Medium
2026
2041
1,239
1,355
20,134
22,018
1,935
2,116

High
2026
2041
1,282
1,459
20,827
23,700
2,002
2,278

15

5) Industrial Activities: In total the industrial activity relationships allocated 12% of

employment in the Auckland Region. Employment in the core industrial PAUP
Activity type was around 47,000 in 2013 and is expected to grow to between 57,000
(Medium) and 60,000 (High) by 2026 and on to 60,000 (Medium) or 72,000 (High) by
2041.
Employment in the other industrial PAUP Activity types (Table 1-5) was around
39,000 in 2013 and is expected to grow to around 48,000 (Medium) to 50,000 (High)
by 2026. and on to 55,000 (Medium) or 60,000 (High) by 2041.

Table 1-5: Projected Industrial PAUP Activity Employment 2013-2041

PAUP Activity Description
Industrial activities
Light manufacturing and servicing
Trade suppliers
Wholesaler
Repair and maintenance services
Storage and lock-up facilities
Warehousing and storage
Show homes
Waste management facilities
Industrial laboratories

2013
46,847
8,815
11,632
5,234
5,075
1,249
6,363
34
838
183

Medium
2026
2041
57,286
65,151
10,511
11,806
14,552
17,148
6,297
7,250
5,991
6,632
1,468
1,651
7,621
8,736
43
52
1,130
1,422
225
252

High
2026
2041
60,441
71,843
11,056
12,940
15,187
18,708
6,638
8,031
6,257
7,232
1,534
1,805
8,021
9,652
46
57
1,180
1,550
236
278

6) Facilities Activities and Other Activities: In total, the facilities activity relationships
allocated 8% of employment in the Auckland Region. Employment in the education
PAUP Activity types (middle of Table 1-6) was around 14,000 in 2013 and is expected
to grow rapidly to between 16,000 (Medium) or 17,000 (High) by 2026 and on to
17,000 (Medium) or 19,000 (High) by 2041.
Employment in the health PAUP Activity types (Table 1-6) was around 18,000 in 2013
and is expected to grow to around 25,000 (Medium) or 26,000 (High) by 2026 and on
to 34,000 (Medium) or 37,000 (High) by 2041.
Employment in the remaining facilities PAUP Activity types was around 16,000 in
2013 and is expected to grow to around 20,000 (Medium) to 21,000 (High) by 2026
and on to 24,000 (Medium) or 26,000 (High) by 2041.

16

Table 1-6: Projected Facilities and Other PAUP Activity Type Employment 20132041
PAUP Activity Description
Recreation facility
Community facilities
Conference facilities
Entertainment facilities
Education facilities
Tertiary education facilities
Healthcare facilities
Hospitals
Justice facilities
Emergency services
Funeral directors' premises
Retirement villages
Supported residential care
Visitor accommodation and boarding houses

1.3

2013
2,644
2,238
1,846
643
5,621
8,595
14,070
4,224
334
3,532
139
656
3,195
1,252

Medium
2026
2041
3,174
3,495
2,675
3,002
2,086
2,281
772
850
6,198
6,676
9,477
10,207
18,941
25,912
5,686
7,779
408
482
4,316
5,092
164
182
883
1,208
4,301
5,884
1,414
1,546

High
2026
2041
3,303
3,787
2,790
3,267
2,158
2,455
804
921
6,506
7,432
9,949
11,364
19,722
28,178
5,921
8,460
424
522
4,487
5,522
172
198
919
1,313
4,478
6,398
1,463
1,665

Stage 1 Results
IHP Question 1
What is the forecast growth by business sector for activities that are likely to be
focused on business zoned land, including Light Industry zone areas?
Note that a large proportion of employment in the Auckland Economy is located outside of
the business zones covered by the PAUP Activity Tables 1 and 2 (37% in 201311).
Answers

11

A proportion of businesses will choose to locate in non-business zones and that this
observed locational choice is likely to continue in the future.
The results from the forecasts indicated that the non-commercial/industrial PAUP
zones are expected to continue providing locations for a significant proportion of
employment in Auckland in the future.
36% of expected growth in employment could be located in City Centre Zone,
Home based business and n/a PAUP activity types, with net additional
employment of between 52,000 (Medium) and 66,000 (High) by 2026 (101,000 and
134,000 by 2041).
Most growth in employment is expected in economic sectors that generally prefer to
locate in commercial zones (or in non-business zones).
Almost half of the growth in employment is expected in four industries; health,
professional services, retail and education. It therefore follows that most demand
for business floorspace will be focussed in commercial zones.
However, employment in construction and wholesale sectors are also expected to
grow strongly and these industries tend to locate in industrial zones. These
industries tend to be land extensive, so we expect that demand for industrial zoned
land will likely grow (including Light Industry zone).

In 2013 15% was in City Centre zone, 20% in home based and 2% in n/a.

17

IHP Question 2;
And how are these activities provided for in the Activity Tables by zone?
Answers

Much of the growth in employment in the business zones governed by the PAUP
Activity Tables will be located in a small number of the PAUP Activity types (see list
of nine PAUP Activity types below).
These PAUP Activity types are generally more enabled within commercial zones in
PAUP Activity Table 1 rather than Activity Table 2. This indicates that most of the
growth in employment is expected to locate within the commercial zones (Activity
Table 1).
Most of the growth in employment in these zones is expected to be located in the
following PAUP Activity types,
o Offices greater than 500m2 GFA per site: 17% of growth to 2026. Net
additional employment between 25,000 and 32,000.
o Industrial activities: 7% of growth. Net additional employment between
10,000 and 14,000 by 2026.
o Offices up to 500m2 GFA per site: 5% of growth. net additional
employment between 8,000 and 10,000 by 2026.
o Offices up to 100m2 GFA per site: 4% of growth in employment. Net
additional between 6,000 and 7,000 by 2026.
o The core retail PAUP Activity types12 account for 5% of growth. With net
additional employment of between 7,000 (Medium) to 9,000 (High)
expected by 2026.
o Healthcare facilities and Hospitals PAUP Activity types accounts for 4% of
growth. Net additional between 6,000 and 7,000 expected by 2026.

These nine PAUP Activity types combined represent two thirds of the expected growth in
employment within the PAUP zones governed by the PAUP Activity Tables.

12

Retail up to 200m2 GFA per tenancy, Retail exceeding 200m2 per tenancy and up to 450m2 GFA per tenancy
and Retail greater than 450m2 GFA per tenancy.

18

Stage 2: Light Industry Existing Activity

The IHPs second question reads.
What is the proportion of business sector types that exist within Light
Industry zones (i.e., analysis showing the spectrum of existing activities
from light industrial production activities to commercial activities)?
To answer this question we have undertaken an exploratory data analysis and
primary research to identify the spectrum of existing activities that occur in
areas zoned Light Industry in the PAUP.
The resulting data from the research surveys was used to produce a profile of
activities within the Light Industry zones by geographic location within
Auckland.

2.1

Stage 2.1 Exploratory Data Analysis of Light Industry

The exploratory data analysis established a preliminary understanding of the potential
spectrum of activities in these areas. Secondary data (land use and economic activity) was
used to produce a set of activity profile indicators for Light Industry zones. These indicators
highlighted locations within Auckland that had unusual profiles, i.e. exhibit high levels of
non-industrial activity (such as retail, offices and services). Each of the unusual areas was
marked as an outlier warranting further investigation.
Two existing secondary data sets were used;

Rateable property floorspace by use types13, and

Employment by sector and meshblock14.

These are proxies as there are no existing datasets that record actual activities within land
parcels or even zones. Neither employment nor floorspace use data applied in the technical
study provide a complete picture of activity occurring in the Light Industry zone.15
The indicators developed suggest that there may be a very weak link between commercial
activities and the Light Industry zone. This result was to be expected as the planners who
defined the Light Industry zone were intending to capture areas which were predominantly
industrial in nature. The results suggest a reasonably strong match between Light Industry
zone and industrial activity.

13

PropertyIQ (2014) Floorspace and Use Database

Statistics New Zealand (2014) Business Demography Statistics
15
At best these data sets provide an indication, the results presented in this EDA acting as a guide to activity.
The following discussion provides a summary of the datasets used, potential issues and the methods applied to
establish the indicators.

14

19

However, the indicators did identify outliers with significantly higher levels of commercial
activity. These areas were investigated further to understand the potential range of activity
that is occurring.
There were 75 outlier meshblocks - 20% of the all Auckland meshblocks that have Light
Industry zoned land.

2.2

Stage 2.2 Primary Research of the Light Industry Zone

The second step was to undertake primary research to establish a new data set that provides
detail of actual on the ground activity within the Light Industry zone. The exploratory data
analysis does not constitute evidence of the distribution of land use within the Light Industry
zones.
The primary research developed a new data set that appraised actual land use activities in
the Light Industry zone.
Two primary research techniques were used; a field survey and a desktop survey. Both used
the same method, i.e. each property in the Light Industry zone being viewed (either in the
field or using images) and then coded to a broad activity type.16 This data was recorded
spatially in GIS software and has been linked directly to the Auckland Council property
database.
The detail of geographic areas covered by the surveys is not displayed in this summary
report. However, in summary the primary research collected data for 91% of all properties
in the Light Industry zone.
In this summary report we focus on the final results of all the primary research (i.e. field
survey and desktop survey).17 The results have been displayed using the following
extractions, Percentage of Existing uses18, Ward level19 and Land Area20
Table 2-1 displays the results by ward. The results for the entire primary research show
higher levels of industrial activity (Auckland average of 83% of land) than the field surveys of
outliers. Retail is the largest non-industrial use of land in the field survey (8%), followed by
Other (6%) and Office (3%).
We note:

16

In the technical study we have opted for a practical solution, using six broad codes for activity. Industrial, retail,
office, mixed, other and vacant.
17
The reader can find detail results in the technical study that focus on meshblocks that were indicated as
outliers in the EDA and results from the entire field survey.
18
Excludes vacant parcels.
19
More detailed spatial definitions would introduce significant volumes of results and detail which is not
necessary for this summary report.
20
See technical study for a discussion on the most appropriate metric for understanding land use by activity.

20

The majority of Local Boards (15 of the areas) had low shares of land used for nonindustrial activities in Light Industry zone (approximately 20% or less).
Data collected in the primary research shows that Upper Harbour, Kaipatiki and
Puketapapa had medium-low shares of land used for non-industrial activities in Light
Industry zone (20% to 30%).
Data collected in the primary research shows that Papakura had medium shares of
land used for non-industrial activities in Light Industry zone (30% to 40%).
Data collected in the primary research showed that the Devonport-Takapuna and
Albert-Eden had large-medium shares of land used for non-industrial activities in
Light Industry zone (40% to 50%).
Data collected in the primary research showed that only the Waitemata had a large
share of land used for non-industrial activities in Light Industry zone (more than
50%).

Table 2-1: Field and Desktop Survey by Local Board - percentage of land area by use
Local Board

Industrial

Office

Retail

Other

Mixed

Rodney

82%

0%

7%

8%

2%

Hibiscus and Bays*

99%

0%

1%

0%

0%

Upper Harbour

74%

9%

9%

6%

3%

Kaipatiki

72%

2%

23%

3%

0%

Devonport-Takapuna

54%

10%

16%

14%

6%

Henderson-Massey

82%

1%

8%

8%

1%

Waitakere Ranges*

92%

0%

5%

4%

0%

Waitemata

28%

10%

50%

13%

0%

Whau

86%

2%

5%

6%

1%

Albert-Eden

53%

0%

20%

27%

0%

Puketapapa

77%

2%

17%

1%

3%

Orakei

89%

1%

2%

7%

0%

Maungakiekie-Tamaki

88%

4%

4%

3%

1%

Howick

85%

4%

8%

2%

1%

Mangere-Otahuhu

89%

0%

3%

8%

0%

Otara-Papatoetoe

81%

3%

7%

9%

0%

Manurewa

92%

0%

5%

3%

0%

Papakura

64%

1%

28%

7%

1%

Franklin
Auckland Region

86%

0%

11%

1%

2%

83%

3%

8%

6%

1%

*EDA indicated no outliers in these Local Board areas

The results from the primary research show a strong match between Light Industry zone and
industrial activity. However, 15% of meshblocks that have relatively high levels of nonindustrial use. This small proportion of meshblocks could be viewed as outliers, with activity
in them more closely related to non-industrial activity.
In many instances outliers are located proximate to other more normal meshblocks with
higher levels of industrial activity. It is therefore logical to assess groupings of meshblocks

21

rather than individual outliers in isolation. Notwithstanding the noted concern, the technical
study provides a list of meshblocks that may be viewed as outliers (58 meshblocks).

2.3

Stage 2.2 Results

IHP Question 2
What is the proportion of business sector types that exist within Light Industry zones
(i.e., analysis showing the spectrum of existing activities from light industrial
production activities to commercial activities)?
Answers;

There is a close match in most locations between Light Industry zoned land and
industrial activities that the zoning would be expected to accommodate. The
spectrum of activities in the Light Industry zone is mostly related to industrial
production activities.

There are some outliers which have a wider spectrum of activity, in particular a
significant share of commercial or non-industrial activities occurring.

75 meshblocks were identified in the Light Industry zone as potential outliers for
further research to understand why they differed from the majority, and to
determine whether zoning changes need to be considered. The properties in these
outliers made up about 14% of all the 8,087 parcels in Light Industry zones.

The primary research conducted in this study collected data for approximately 91% of all
properties in the Light Industry zone.
The results show,

the outlier meshblocks do have a high proportion of Light Industry zone land used by
non-industrial activities (avg. 36% of land). Retail is the largest non-industrial use of
land in the outlier meshblocks (22%), followed by Office (7%) and Other (5%).
the entire field survey which included areas contiguous to the outliers shows larger
levels of industrial activity (avg. 75% of land). Retail is still the largest non-industrial
use of land in the field survey (13%), followed by Other (6%) and Office (4%).
the entire primary research shows much higher levels of industrial activity (avg. 83%
of land used for industrial activities in Light Industry zones). Retail is still the largest
non-industrial use of land in the field survey (8%), followed by Other (6%) and Office
(3%).

The primary research confirms that there is a strong match between the Light Industry zone
and industrial activity. However there are some meshblocks that are outliers with a wider
spectrum of activities. When these outliers are placed within their specific geographic
context the mismatch is not as apparent.

22

A small percentage of Light Industry zone (15% of meshblocks) have large amounts of nonindustrial activity. However these outliers should be viewed in their local context.
While it might appear that the Light Industry was infiltrated by significant amounts of nonindustrial activity, this is not the case. There may be a narrow strip of non-industrial activity
(retail/office etc.) along the main roads in light industrial areas there are large areas of
industrial activity in behind, on the side streets and down long driveways.
Retail and other non-industrial services are seeking to locate on the main transport routes
where there visibility is highest. This should not influence the view that the vast majority of
these areas are industrial in nature (83% on average).
There is very little evidence that Light Industry zones within the region are infiltrated with
non-industrial activities and therefore limited evidence to support rezoning on the basis of
existing uses not matching the zoning provisions.

23

Stage 3: Market Outcomes

The third question is,
In light of the above (Stages 1 and 2), how do the PAUP provisions meet
the projected need for zoned opportunity, by zone?
How does the supply of PAUP land compare to future demand by
business sector?
Four steps have been taken to answer the IHPs questions;
land use observed in Auckland is assessed by zone to develop a set of
metrics that measure land use intensity (Stage 3.1).
the land use intensity metrics developed in Stage 3.1 are used in to
convert employment growth (Stage 1.2) into demand in terms of land
area (Stage 3.2).
the supply of land and floorspace is established for the PAUP zones and
the Future Urban Zone (Stage 3.3).
Finally, demand and supply of land is compared to determine whether
provisions in the PAUP are sufficient to meet current and likely future
needs of the economy (Stage 3.4).

3.1

Stage 3.1 Land use Intensity by Sector and Zone

Land is used more intensively in some locations than others due factors such as land value,
access to regional infrastructure, population demand, accessibility, etc. This affects the rate
at which employment in each business sector may translate into land or floorspace
requirements in each location. In addition characteristics of the business sector itself have a
strong influence on the volume of land area required to cater for growth.
We establish existing built form requirements and workspace ratios (taking into account
both floorspace and land, and the relationship between floorspace and land by sector) by
various categories based on empirical data.
We use two metrics,
1. Floor Area Ratio (FAR). This is a measure of the degree of intensity to which land is
utilised (described below). Specifically, it is the amount of built floorspace divided
by land area for each parcel, and,
2. Workspace ratio (WSR). This is a measure of the amount of built floorspace per
employee. It is a measure of the level of intensity of floorspace usage by industry.

24

FAR is highest for the more central (older) areas. The observed higher utilisation in Urban
Central area is likely to be driven by the higher land values (and rents) which mean that
businesses must utilise land more intensively in this area.
Urban North, Urban South and Urban West have similar FAR for both commercial (ranging
from 0.35 to 0.38) and industrial (ranging from 0.25 to 0.33) zones.

Table 3-1: Average FAR for PAUP Activity Table 1, 2 - Local Board Group

Local Board Group

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Activity
Table 2
Industrial

Urban Central

0.66

0.43

Urban North

0.35

0.32

Urban South

0.37

0.25

Urban West

0.38

0.33

Rural North

0.23

0.14

Rural South*

0.22

0.11

* excludes Glenbrook Steel Mill from Heavy Industry

WSR were lowest for urban Local Board Groups and highest in PAUP Activity Table 2
(industrial).
Urban Central and Urban North areas have a much lower average WSR in both commercial
zones (Activity table 1) and industrial zones (Activity table 2) than elsewhere, showing
floorspace in these areas is used more intensively than in the other Local Board grouping
areas due to the higher land rents and prices.

Table 3-2: Average WSR by PAUP Activity Table and Local Board Group

Local Board Group

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Activity
Table 2
Industrial

Urban Central

42

Urban North

39

82
94

Urban South

62

107

Urban West

54

127

Rural North

66

172

Rural South*

58

144

* excludes Glenbrook Steel Mill from Heavy Industry

To understand whether the PAUP provisions meet the needs of the economy we must
translate employment forecasts into demand for land.
The empirical data on current land use intensity, floorspace to land area ratio, shows the
following,

At the regional level, land use intensity (FAR) tends to be higher in the commercial
zones (Activity Table 1) relative to industrial zones (Activity Table 2). The utilisation
of land is greater in the commercial zones at around 0.50 compared to 0.40 in the
industrial zones,

25

Land use intensity is highest for the more central (older) areas. The Urban Central
area has an average FAR of 0.66 in the Commercial zones and 0.43 in the industrial
zones driven by land values,
Urban North, Urban South and Urban West have similar FAR for both commercial
(approx. 0.40) and industrial (approx. 0.30) zones,
Land use intensity of commercial centres zone tends to increases with scale (i.e.
Metropolitan > Town > Local > Neighbourhood),
In commercial non-centre zones (Mixed Use, General Business and Business Park)
FAR tends to vary significantly across Auckland, 0.11 to 0.69, and
Land use intensity for the Light Industry and Heavy zone was similar across the
urban local board group areas (0.30 to 0.40).

Empirical data on current floorspace intensity, employment per square metre of floorspace,
shows,
Regionally, floorspace intensity (WSR) in the commercial zones (Activity Table 1) was
56m2 per employee. Floorspace in industrial zones (Activity Table 2) was less
intensively used, with median WSR of 101m2 per employee,
WSR were lowest for urban Local Board Groups and highest in PAUP Activity Table 2,
The average WSR for Urban Central and North were around 40m2 per employee for
commercial zones and 90m2 per employee for industrial zones lower than the rest
implying more intensive use than in the other Local Board group areas, related to
higher land rents and prices,
Rural Local Board Groups had an average WSR of around 60m2 per employee for
commercial and over 140m2 per employee for industrial,
Urban West and South local board Groups had an average WSR of around 60m2 per
employee for commercial and 110m2 per employee for industrial,
WSR tended to decrease with scale of the commercial centre zones (i.e.
Metropolitan < Town < Local/Neighbourhood),
Intensity of floorspace use in the non-centre commercial zones (Mixed Use, General
Business and Business Park) is not consistent, e.g. General Business 22m2 to 68m2.
The WSR for the Business park zone was the lowest relative to any of the other
zones.
Intensity of floorspace use in industrial zones was lowest in the Heavy Industry zone
(114m2 per employee). Light industry had a WSR of approximately 90m2.

The FAR and the WSR are used in the following section to convert demand in terms of
employment to demand in terms of zoned land area.

3.2

Stage 3.2 Land use Demand by Sector and Zone

PAUP activity employment forecasts (Stage 1.2) are combined with land use intensity results
(Stage 3.1) to establish demand for land by zone and location in Auckland.

26

There are two key assumptions; that land and floorspace intensity (utilisation) remain
constant over the forecast period and that all of the future growth in employment generates
need for new floorspace (and land).
However, land and floorspace utilisation rates are not fixed. In a high growth city rates of
utilisation will increase through time as the city intensifies. These changes in intensity can
be driven by either increases in the scale of built form on business land or more efficient use
of the existing floorspace within those buildings.
These assumption have two important consequences;
1. Future growth in employment is likely to require less land than is currently observed
in Auckland. In other words, the vacant or vacant potential land could be used
more efficiently in the future. The amount of land required/demanded is likely to be
less than estimated in this study.
2. Existing land (and floorspace) could accommodate more employment and economic
activity than is currently observed. The amount of economic activity within existing
buildings and land could increase in the future, such that growth in employment is
likely to be accommodated in existing areas. This means that employment growth
will not all manifest as demand for vacant land (or floorspace).
These aspects are important and the processes are real, however we have not modelled the
potential implications of changes in land and floorspace utilisation. Changes in utilisation
rates are likely to result in less demand for land (and floorspace).
The estimates in this study should be viewed as conservative, as they are likely to
overestimate the need for new zoned land.
Notwithstanding these consequences, it is prudent for the Council to zone more land than is
needed (in absolute terms) to ensure that the economy is not unnecessarily constrained by
land shortages, or price rises as land becomes scarce.
We note that demand modelling has incorporated changes in floorspace use efficiency to a
certain extent (in new developments). WSR in commercial areas has been decreasing over
the past two decades, with businesses utilising space more efficiently. Some researchers
suggesting that the decrease over the past two decades could be as large as 1.5% per
annum.21 In this study we have assumed that the WSR for commercial zones decreases by
0.5% per annum. Industrial WSR has been assumed to remain constant at the current level.
In this study we have allocated growth according to a projection of the existing economic
structure. This projection model assumes that growth is distributed pro rata across the
geography of Auckland according to the existing structure of employment.
This distribution assumes that the economy will be focused on existing areas of activity. This
projection is a simple estimation method for understanding the distribution of growth.
While there are alternative methods for forecasting the geographic spread of demand
21

CBRE (2012) NZ Office Worker Space Average.

27

growth, the known methods require substantial amounts of time which mean they could not
be utilised in this study.
Note that the projection does not take into account the supply or capacity for growth in an
area. Some economic sectors are able to locate in many places within Auckland and that a
simple projection - pro rata distribution does not capture this fact. Demand for additional
commercial and industrial zoned land could be accommodated in other areas across
Auckland. For example, the pro rata distribution suggests that there is demand for industrial
zoned land in the Urban Central (the Isthmus) area. However, in reality this local demand
should be viewed as a regional demand with much of this demand being equally satisfied
by land in other areas.
Growth Forecasts 2026 horizon of the PAUP
Annual demand for commercial and industrial zoned land by 2026 is expected to range
between 120 (Medium) to 150 (High) hectares per annum (see Table 3-3). The majority of
demand for land is expected to be located in industrial zones, with annual demand between
64 (Medium) to 82 (High) hectares per annum. Commercial zones are expected to attract
additional demand for land of 53 (Medium) to 67 (High) hectares per annum.
In terms of geographic location the following could occur,

Commercial Zones: The majority of demand for commercial land could be directed
towards Urban Central, Urban North and Urban South Local Board Groups, with
combined land demand ranging between 39 (Medium) to 49 (High) hectares per
annum. There could also be little growth in the rural and Urban West areas, with
combined land demand ranging between 11 (Medium) to 14 (High) hectares per
annum. The previous Auckland council business study did not measure demand
according to zone, so it is not possible to compare the results to this previous work.22
Industrial Zones: The majority of demand for industrial land could be directed
towards Southern areas of Auckland (Urban and Rural), with more than half of the
total land demand being expected to locate in these areas (demand between 33
(Medium) to 43 (High) hectares per annum). There could also be strong demand for
land in Urban Central and Urban North, with combined land demand ranging
between 19 (Medium) to 25 (High) hectares per annum. We note that the
forecasted demand for industrial land ranges from 61 (Medium) to 79 (High)
hectares per annum. This is higher than the annual rate of vacant land take-up
observed in Auckland over the past five years.23 The previous Auckland Council
business study suggested a demand for industrially zoned land to sit at
approximately 50 ha per annum.24

22

Nunns .P (2014) PAUP Business Growth: Analysis of projected floorspace demand and modelled plan-enabled
capacity.
23
CBRE (2014) report suggests annual take-up of industrial land did not exceed 60 ha between 2009 and 2013.
24
See pg. 13 Table 1 of Nunns .P (2014).

28

The annual demand for commercial and industrial zoned land by 2041 is expected to
decrease compared with the period to 2026, and range between 93 (Medium) to 120 (High)
hectares per annum (details in Technical Report).

Table 3-3: Land Demand PAUP Activity Table 1, 2 - 2026 hectares per annum
Local Board
Group

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Activity
Table 2
Industrial

Medium Growth - Land Demand (ha p.a.)

Urban Central

17

12

Urban North

11

Urban South

12

31

Urban West

Rural North

Rural South
Total

51

61

High Growth - Land Demand (ha p.a.)

3.3

Urban Central

21

15

Urban North

13

10

Urban South

15

40

Urban West

Rural North

Rural South
Total

63

79

Stage 3.3 PAUP Land use Capacity by Sector and Zone

Development capacity or supply of business zoned land in the PAUP zones and the FUZ have
been modelled and assessed by Auckland Council. Key metrics have been developed from
these models.
Auckland Councils Capacity for Growth Study (CfGS) models capacity within each PAUP zone
across Auckland.25 The model identifies existing vacant sites and sites where building
coverage appears unusually low (vacant potential), then establishes a range of estimates of
capacity. The CfGS provides an estimate of Theoretical, Contemporary and Modified
theoretical capacity.
In summary the CfGS,

25

Estimates enabled capacity using the Maximum Theoretical scenario - a measure of

the potential development that is theoretically possible. That is the building envelop
according to the zone rules is developed fully (maximum height etc).
Provides a capacity measure termed the Contemporary scenario.
The
Contemporary scenario estimates the capacity that could occur if the sites were

Auckland Council (2015) Proposed Zones (Adopted December)

29

developed to the same level as the market has already delivered in similar and
proximate zones/locations. The Contemporary scenario can be viewed as ex post
scenario, which implicitly assumes new PAUP urban form rules will have no effect on
the market outcomes (i.e. intensity of development remains unchanged, as if the
PAUP did not exist).
In addition, the 2013 CfGS model had an ex ante scenario called the Modified theoretical,
due to time constraints it was not possible for this scenario to be reproduced in the 2015
CfGS.
We are aware that the residential development modelling for the PAUP has incorporated
another measure of capacity, referred to as feasible capacity.26 The feasible capacity uses
an additional financial restraint test to establish whether the development of a site would be
viable in terms of a business proposition (i.e. requirement for a return). The modelling of
feasibility in residential development can be established by testing a small range of potential
development options (less than 20 options). Even with this small number of options the
modelling of feasibility of residential zones has been a protracted and passionately argued
process.27
Unlike residential developments, the estimation of feasible capacity for commercial and
industrial land is much more complex and problematic. This is because there are numerous
diverse development options and/or uses that could occur on any given piece of business
land. These numerous development options and final uses can have very different
development costs and rents (returns) that result in large numbers of potential outcomes,
each of which would need to be tested. We consider that while modelling feasibility of
business land development may be theoretically possible, in practice the application of such
a model to all properties in Auckland would be an intractable problem.28
In addition, the rate at which the measures of feasibility change over time is impossible to
predict with any certainty as feasibility relates to underlying economic conditions. This
means that tomorrows feasibility has the potential to be very different to todays. Projecting
that with any certainty over 15 or 30 years is impossible.
Therefore, we consider the Contemporary scenario is a useful proxy for minimum level of
commercial feasibility. The use of these similar locations indirectly incorporates the past
market realties and actual development economics associated with developing business
land.
For these two reasons we have relied on the Cotemporary capacity measure from the CfGS
as the minimum measure of current supply. The results from the CfGS are displayed in the
following section.
26

Auckland Council Developable Capacity (ACDC) model

As of late February 2016 the ACDC model was still being developed/debated subject to expert conferencing
concurrent to this report.
28
Given the large number of alternative development options available and the large number of properties in the
commercial and industrial zones this modelling would take a substantial amount of time and effort to solve and
add little in terms of understanding.
27

30

We note CfGS Contemporary scenario models development potential on vacant and vacant
potential parcels in business areas which excludes,

Minor business areas, isolated business parcels (corner shops and other spot
zonings). This covers 794ha (483 ha industrial, 311 commercial) of PAUP zoned
business land (9% of total)
PAUP Precincts, which includes special areas or structure plans. Covers 83ha of
business land plus 108ha of business precinct. A high level estimate of capacity is
provided.
Parcels in business areas that do not have vacant or vacant potential are not
modelled in the Contemporary scenario. This means 54% of business land is
deemed to have no development potential.
Future Urban Zone, that provides for greenfield land for business development.
However, we have utilised the Future Urban Land Supply Strategy to produce an
estimate of capacity.

We note that in the future (approx. 2026) a new Unitary Plan is likely to be developed. This
new plan may include rule and zone changes that will enable other supply. For this reason
the FUZ should not be viewed as the only new source of supply after 2026.
In the subsections we provide summary results for the following,

3.3.1

CfGS potentially developable Business Land (for business areas),

CfGS potentially developable floorspace (for business areas),
Potential capacity in the minor business areas (estimate of developable land and
floorspace),
Potential capacity in the PAUP Precincts (estimate of developable land and
floorspace), and
Potential capacity in the FUZ (estimate of developable land and floorspace).

CfGS Developable Business Land

The following definitions are provide in the CfGS technical report,

29
30

Vacant Land: land that is on parcels that are wholly vacant (i.e. there are no
buildings located on the parcel)There are two distinct types of vacant business
parcels, the first being a business zoned parcel that is an empty lot and the second
being a business parcel that while it has no buildings located on it is currently used
for other purposes. 29
Vacant Potential Land: is land that has an unusually large vacant area or percent
vacant area, when compared to other parcels of similar generalised zoning within a
similar location.30 The potential land (on these parcels) is equal to a proportion of
the parcel that does not have an existing structure, i.e. excludes land in the parcel
that has an existing building.

pg. 81, Balderston, K. et al. (2014).

pg. 86, Balderston, K. et al. (2014).

31

We note that neither of these measures include potential redevelopment of properties that
are fully covered with existing buildings. It is likely that for some properties the PAUP rules
will enable greater intensity of use, e.g. increased height envelope. The CfGS does not
model this type of redevelopment.
For example, the Town Centre zone has less than 30% properties coded Vacant or Vacant
Potential. This means that the CfGS only models the potential development in a small part
of this zone (i.e. 30%). The majority is not modelled implying it has no capacity. That is not
realistic, meaning that the CfGS understates actual development capacity. We note that this
same issue occurs in the other centre zones.
Vacant Land
In Table 3-4, the vacant business land is seen to be distributed across the city, and;

there are 344 ha of commercially zoned vacant land and 1,047 ha of industrial zoned
land vacant in Auckland.
most of the vacant industrial land is located in Urban South (332 ha) and Rural South
(402 ha). These two areas make up over 70% of vacant industrial land in PAUP zones
The Urban North and Urban South have the most vacant commercially zoned land,
with 90ha and 111ha respectively. Together these areas represent 58% of the total
vacant land in commercial zones.

Table 3-4: Vacant Land by PAUP Activity Tables and Local Board Group

Local Board Group (hectares)

Urban Central

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Activity
Table 2
Industrial

63

82

Urban North

90

101

Urban South

111

332

Urban West

52

75

Rural North

19

56

Rural South
Total

402

344

1,047

Source: Auckland Council (2016) Capacity for Growth Study Business Areas

Vacant Potential Land

As seen in Table 3-5, the vacant potential business land is distributed across the city, and;

there are 472 ha of commercially zoned vacant potential land and 1,730 ha of
industrial zoned land termed vacant potential in Auckland.
most of the industrial vacant potential land being located in Urban South (899 ha or
51% of the industrial total).
The Urban Central and Urban North have the most vacant potential commercially
zoned land, with 138 ha and 119 ha respectively (55% of the total).

32

Table 3-5: Vacant Potential Land by PAUP Activity Tables and Local Board Group

Local Board Group (hectares)

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Urban Central

138

Activity
Table 2
Industrial
227

Urban North

119

214

Urban South

100

899

Urban West

66

194

Rural North

24

66

Rural South
Total

25

131

472

1,730

Source: Auckland Council (2016) Capacity for Growth Study Business Areas

3.3.2

CfGS Maximum Theoretical Business Floorspace

The PAUP zoning rules enable a large amount of floorspace to be developed. However given
demand and supply constraints it is very unlikely that all enabled capacity will be developed
in the life span of the PAUP (2026) or the Auckland Plan (2041).
The extent of the zones has changed since the previous CfGS was used by experts in Topics
051-054 Centre Zones, Business Park and Industry zones, Business activities and Business
controls. The previous CfGS was developed using zoning rules and geographic extent as set
out in the 2013 PAUP. While the CfGS used in this study was developed using the most
recent zoning rules and the geographic extent as set out in the 2015.31 We have not
attempted to classify or understand all the nuances of the changes in rules and zone
geographies between the PAUP in 2013 and the current position in 2015.
The changes between 2013 and 2015 have significantly increased Maximum Theoretical
development beyond the level presented to it in the hearing on Topics 051-054.
Under the new PAUP zoning provisions, there is increase from 38.5 million m2 (2013) to 44.7
million m2 (2015) commercial floorspace a 16% increase. Most of the increase is located in
the Urban Central (up 41%) and the Rural areas (North up 155% and South up 47%).

31

Auckland Council (2015) Proposed Zones (Adopted December)

33

Figure 3-1: Maximum Theoretical Floorspace - Commercial Zones PAUP 2013 to

2015
50,000

Urban Central
Urban West

Urban North
Rural North

45,000

1,900
2,579

Floorspace (000 m2)

40,000
35,000
30,000

Urban South
Rural South

1,491
1,013

7,096

7,732
11,168

25,000

10,248

20,000
15,000

10,272
9,768

10,000
5,000

11,680

8,272

PAUP 2013*

PAUP 2015**

Source: *Balderston, K. and Fredrickson, C. (2014). Capacity for growth study 2013
**Auckland Council (2016) Capacity for Growth Study Business Areas

Under the new PAUP provisions, the amount of industrial floorspace that could be built has
increased from 181.6 million m2 to 213.7 million m2 in 2015 - an 18% increase. Most of it
located in the Urban Central (up 20%) and North Shore (up 31%).

Figure 3-2: Maximum Theoretical Floorspace Industrial Zones PAUP 2013 to 2015
250,000

Urban Central
Urban West

Urban North
Rural North

Floorspace (000 m2)

200,000

150,000

20,701
6,586
20,591

Urban South
Rural South

23,909
6,929
23,189

94,632
100,000

50,000

81,507

20,917

27,502

31,265

37,570

PAUP 2013*

PAUP 2015**

Source: *Balderston, K. and Fredrickson, C. (2014). Capacity for growth study 2013
**Auckland Council (2016) Capacity for Growth Study Business Areas

The PAUP zones and rules enable a substantial amount of floorspace to be built, well in
excess of any needs or demands of the market in the planning horizons (2026 or 2041). The

34

changes to the PAUP zones and rules since 2013 (and the Topics 051-054 hearings) have
increased the amount of enabled floorspace even further.
The maximum theoretical floorspace is so vast that the market will not develop to this level
of intensity in the planning horizons. In our view, the level of potential development based
on the existing level of development (Contemporary scenario) plus a forward looking
assessment that factors in increases in intensity (ex ante scenario) are more appropriate
measures.

3.3.3

CfGS Potential Business Floorspace

The Cotemporary scenario from the CfGS is used to establish a realistic minimum level of
floorspace development that could be achieved by the market over the planning horizons of
the PAUP (2026) and Auckland Plan (2041).
This scenario represents the range of developments that are feasible under past market
conditions (supply and demand). This scenario is an ex post projection, i.e. how much
development would the market choose in the future if past market conditions (supply and
demand) continue into the future?
While we can be confident that the Contemporary scenario is unlikely to eventuate, it still
provides a relevant base line for understanding the least amount of potential development
that could occur in Auckland.
Potential floorspace by Local Board Group by PAUP Activity Table 1 and 2 was generally,

Urban Central, South and North had the highest level of potential commercial
floorspace, with over 600,000 m2 of floorspace potential in each. In total the PAUP
commercial zones allow around 2.7 million m2 of floorspace in Auckland.
Overall potential industrial floorspace of 6.0 million m2 of floorspace in Auckland.
Large areas of industrial zoned floorspace are potentially available in the Urban
South (3.2 million m2) and Central (1.2 million m2). The Urban North and West also
have more than half a million square metres of floorspace in the industrial zones.

35

Table 3-6: Contemporary Scenario Potential Floorspace (000 m2) by PAUP Activity
Zone and Local Board Group

Local Board Group (000 m )

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Activity
Table 2
Industrial

Urban Central

947

1,184

Urban North

753

677

Urban South

638

3,206

Urban West

234

672

Rural North

109

158

Rural South
Total

67

136

2,747

6,033

Source: Auckland Council (2016) Capacity for Growth Study Business Areas

3.3.4

Minor Business Areas

The minor business areas include 794 hectares of PAUP business zoned - 9% of the total. Of
the minor business areas most land is zoned industrial (483 hectares) with commercial (311
hectares). It is clear that there is likely to be some development potential in these areas.
The minor business areas have not been modelled in the CfGS in the past, therefore
potential is estimated below. The assumed proportion of vacant and vacant potential land in
the minor business areas is the same as that observed in the CfGS results (by zone and Local
Board Group). This provides a broad estimate of vacant and potential vacant land (138 ha in
commercial zones and 236 ha in industrial).
Estimates of development potential in the minor business areas are based on applying rates
of development intensity from the CfGS for the Contemporary scenario, by zone and Local
Board Group, to convert the vacant and vacant potential estimates into potential floorspace.
In total the minor business areas could allow an additional 351,000 m2 in the commercial
zones and 591,000 m2 in the industrial zones. This is equivalent to 17% of the CfGS
development potential in the commercial zones and 11% of the CfGS industrial zones (shown
in Table 3-6).

36

Table 3-7: Minor Business Areas Potential Floorspace (000 m2) by PAUP Activity
Zone and Local Board Group Contemporary Scenario*

Local Board Group (000 m )

Urban Central

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Activity
Table 2
Industrial

29

Urban North

208

Urban South

46

561

Urban West

Rural North

20

Rural South
Total

40
351

23
591

When assessed individually these business areas are minor, however when taken
collectively they represent a significant proportion of business land in the PAUP. The
estimates presented in this study, suggest that minor business areas could collectively
provide an additional 10% to 20% of the potential developable floorspace.

3.3.5

PAUP Precincts
Due to complexity and limited time, the CfGS did not model the effects of PAUP precincts.
The exclusion of the precincts from the CfGS creates two limitations,

there is some PAUP business land that falls within precincts. The precincts either
add or remove capacity from the PAUP zones.
there are a number of precincts that currently have no PAUP business zones. In
these precincts there is likely to be some provision for business zoning. Specifically,
there are business precincts and comprehensive precincts that have no
underlying business zoned land.

While we are unable to quantify the effect of the first limitation, it is possible to estimate the
scale of the second.
In total, there are 18 business precincts with land area 108 hectares that could be expected
to include some business land. There are also 43 comprehensive precincts with land area
of 9,990 hectares that could include some business zoning.
We have estimated the potential scale of the business land in these precincts, but have not
attempted to estimate the development potential in the precincts. We have applied the
same ratio of business land to other zones observed in the PAUP (i.e. 1.7% of all Auckland
land is business land). If that ratio is maintained in these precincts then we could expect 173
ha of additional business land.

3.3.6

Future Urban Zone

As part of the PAUP process Auckland Council has produced a scale, timing and release
strategy for the FUZ termed the Future Urban Land Supply Strategy (FULSS) to provide

37

clarity and certainty. The FULSS identifies a 30 year sequential release of future urban land
and seeks to assist in the continued supply of greenfield land for development.32
The FULSS highlights 11,000 hectares of rural land identified for future urbanisation. This
area could potentially accommodate 110,000 dwellings and 50,500 jobs. We have assumed
that the capacity in the FUZ commercial and industrial zones have the same land use
intensity as observed in the Local Board Group areas (see FAR and WSR analysis in section
4.1) in which they fall.
The FUZ allows for,

a significant area of land zoned for industrial activities. The FULSS suggests that one
third of the industrial land could be located in the Urban South and West (approx.
495 ha). While the remaining 875 hectares could be located in the Rural North and
South.
The FULSS suggests that 220 hectares of commercial zoned land could be provided
in the Rural North and South. There may also be another 75 hectares of commercial
zoned land in Urban South and West.

Table 3-8: FUZ Land by PAUP Activity Table and Local Board Group hectares

Local Board Group

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Urban Central

Urban North

Urban South

Activity
Table 2
Industrial
-

65

190

Urban West

10

305

Rural North

177

543

Rural South
Total

41

333

293

1,370

The FULSS also provides information about the potential range of commercial zones
provided in each part of the FUZ. The FULSS identifies the broad areas in the FUZ that may
have Town Centre33, Local Centre34 and Neighbourhood Centre35 zones (see Appendix 2 of
the FULSS).

32

This Strategy deals exclusively with Greenfield land, outside the 2010 Metropolitan Urban Limit, which is
identified as future urban zone in the PAUP. Standalone areas identified in Map 1 are not included in this Strategy
with the exception of Hingaia. Dairy Flat, south of Bawden Road, Postman Road (Dairy Flat) and Puhinui, while
not zoned future urban in the notified PAUP, have been included in the Strategy for the purposes of prudent
planning. Changes to the PAUP regarding the extent of the Rural Urban Boundary, after the PAUP process is
complete, will be reflected in an updated Strategy.
33
The FULSS suggests four additional Town centres, two in Opaheke-Dury-Karaka and one in both PaeretaPukekohe and Silverdale-Dairy Flat-Wainui.
34
The FULSS also suggests twelve new Local centres, with one additional Local centre in each of the areas
Takanini, Paereta-Pukekohe, Kumeu-Huapai-Riverhead, Whenuapai-Redhills and Warkworth. The
Opaheke-Dury-Karaka area could include three new Local centres and Silverdale-Dairy Flat-Wainui could
include four.

38

Total potential business floorspace that could be developed in the FUZ exceeds 3.2 million
m2. Most of the additional floorspace is located in the Light Industry zone (2.6 million m2).
The majority of the commercial zone floorspace is expected to be located in the Rural North
(nearly half).

Table 3-9: FUZ Floorspace by PAUP Activity Table 1 and 2

Local Board Group

Activity
Table 1
Commercial

Activity
Table 2
Industrial

Urban Central

Urban North

Urban South

241

451

Urban West

28

962

Rural North

326

780

Rural South
Total

77

360

672

2,552

Note: Assumes that employment in FULSS has the same workspace ratio
as existing activity in the current zones

3.3.7

Stage 3.3 Findings

The CfGS provides information about potential supply that is facilitated by the PAUP rules
and zones (supply over the lifespan of the PAUP, i.e. up to 2026). While the FULSS provides
information about potential additional supply (in the FUZ) that could be enabled after 2026.
However, we note that in the future (approx. 2026) a new Unitary Plan will be developed.
This new plan may include changes to rules and zones that will potentially enable other new
supply. For this reason the FUZ should not be viewed as the only new source of supply after
2026.
In summary,

35

there are 344 hectares of commercial zoned land and 1,047 hectares of industrial
zoned land identified as vacant.
there are 472 hectares of commercial zoned land and 1,730 hectares of industrial
zoned land identified as vacant potential.
The change in PAUP provisions between 2013 and 2015 has generated a significant
increase in overall capacity (approx. 16%). The 2013 CfGS results presented in Topic
051-054, have been superseded by the results presented in this report.
The scale of enabled capacity is vast and is unlikely to be developed by the market in
the planning horizon.

The FULSS includes one Neighbourhood centre in Warkworth.

39

Development scenarios provide a more realistic assessment of the achievable

development in Auckland. The contemporary scenario indicates that PAUP
commercial zones allow 2.7 million m2 of floorspace to be developed. While the
industrial zones allow around 6.0 million m2 of developable floorspace.

The CfGS model does not model 9% of business land (in minor business areas). Estimates of
the development potential in these areas suggest that an additional 10% to 20% of
developable floorspace is available.
The CfGS does not model precincts. In some instances precincts are likely to include
additional provision for business land (beyond the underlying PAUP zones). We estimate
that precincts could add 173 ha of business land not included in the PAUP zones.
The results from the FULSS for commercial and industrial indicates,

3.4

a significant area of land zoned for industrial. One third of this in the Urban South
and West (approx. 495 ha). While the remaining 875 hectares could be located in
the Rural North and South.
The FULSS suggest 220 hectares of commercial zoned land could be provided in the
Rural North and South. There may also be another 75 hectares of commercial
zoned land in Urban South and West.

Stage 3.4 Land use Outlook by PAUP Zone

The technical study compares the demand for each PAUP zone (Stage 3.2) with the
floorspace capacity within each zone (Stage 3.3). It identifies in which zones anticipated
demand exceeds supply or where surplus supply exists.
The outlook assessment for commercial zones has been undertaken using floorspace
demand and supply. This is because supply in commercial zones is more closely related to
built form that can be developed on a property than land area. In contrast the outlook
assessment for industrial zones has been undertaken using land area demand and supply.
This is because supply in the industrial zones is more closely related to the land area.

3.4.1

Outlook 2026 Business Land and Floorspace

In the following graphs forecast demand (medium and high) is compared with the potentially
developable floorspace or land (based on the Contemporary development scenario and 20%
of Maximum Theoretical development).
In brief, demand is depicted by;

Medium Growth forecast, as represented by the blue line.

High Growth forecasts, as represented by the orange line.

40

Commercial capacity (developable floorspace) is represented using the two CfGS scenarios36,

Contemporary, as represented by the grey dotted line.

20% of Theoretical, as represented by the green dotted line.

The graphs of the industrial zones show the Vacant and Vacant Potential land;

PAUP 2013, as represented by the dark blue dotted line.

PAUP 2015, as represented by the yellow line.
PAUP 2015 modified for non-industrial uses, grey dotted line.

If the demand lines (blue and orange lines) do not crossover/exceed the scenarios (dotted
grey and green lines) or Vacant/Vacant Potential (yellow and grey dotted line) then it is likely
that there will be sufficient supply for the horizon of the PAUP (i.e. no shortage by 2026).
In cases where demand exceeds the Contemporary line (grey dotted line), then the market
may need to develop floorspace at a higher intensity than has been observed in the past.
This does not mean that there is a shortage, but rather that past development intensities will
not be sufficient to meet the needs of the market.
In cases where demand exceeds the 20% of Theoretical line (green dotted line), then the
market would need to develop to a significantly higher intensity than has been observed in
the past. Again, this does not mean that there is a shortfall, but rather that current market
operations may not be sufficient to meet the needs of the market in this zone/location.
However, we note that demand in these situations could shift or be satisfied in a number of
other ways which include,

(re)development could occur in the existing zone on properties that are

underutilised (i.e. build up)37,
development could increase beyond the 20% of total Theoretical level. The PAUP
enables a substantial development potential beyond the levels shown in the
scenario and graphs depicted in the following section (generally the PAUP enables
80% more development than is shown in the following graphs),
shift to a different zone in the same location where there is available development
potential,
shift to another location where there is available development potential,
intensification of use in existing buildings.

We consider that these different alternatives could occur to alleviate any perceived shortfall
shown in this study.
Metropolitan Centre Zone

36
37

Note, we have included an estimate for the business land in the minor business areas as described in 3.3.4.
The CfGS2015 does not model development potential on approximately 50% of the zoned business land.

41

Figure 3-3 shows that in most areas demand for floorspace in the Metropolitan Centre zones
does not exceed the level of development suggested by the Contemporary scenario, i.e.
neither the orange or blue line exceeds the grey dotted line.
This result indicates that there is unlikely to be a capacity shortage in the Metropolitan
Centre zone, even if we assume that the market is frozen at the current levels of
development intensity.
The Urban West graph shows that the High Growth forecast (orange) exceeds the
Cotemporary scenario (grey dotted line). This indicates that if growth is high in this area that
the market may be required to develop at a higher intensity than has been observed in the
past. Given the level of additional potential development enabled in this zone we do not
consider that this area would experience a shortage in the lifespan of the PAUP.

Figure 3-3: Metropolitan Centre Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential
Development

400

Urban Central

Urban North

Metropolitan Centre Zone

Metropolitan Centre Zone

600

20% of Theoretical
500

300

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

350

250
200
150
100

0
2013

Contemporary
200

High
Growth

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

Medium
Growth
2016

2021

Urban South

Urban West

Metropolitan Centre Zone

Metropolitan Centre Zone

900

800

800

700

700

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

300

100

50

900

400

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2013

2026

600
500
400
300
200
100

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

Town Centre Zone

Figure 3-4 shows that in most areas demand for floorspace in the Town Centre zones
exceeds the level of development suggested by the Contemporary scenario, i.e. the orange
or blue line exceeds the grey dotted line. This result indicates that in the Town Centre zone,
the market will not be satisfied by historic levels of development intensity.

42

However, in all cases the demand does not exceed the 20% of total Theoretical scenario
(green dotted line). This indicates that if development intensity increases from historic rates
the market could be expected to satisfy demand.
Note that Urban Central graph shows that the High Growth forecast (orange) exceeds the
Contemporary scenario relatively soon (grey dotted line). There is a vast development
potential (95%) above the grey line. Given the level of PAUP development potential enabled
in this zone we do not consider that this area would experience a shortage in the lifespan of
the PAUP.

Figure 3-4: Town Centre Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential
Development
Urban Central

Urban North

Town Centre Zone

450

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

500
400
300
200
100

Urban South

Town Centre Zone

400

700

350

600

300
250
200
150
100

2021

0
2013

2026

300
200

High
Growth

Contemporary

Medium
Growth

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

2016

2021

Urban West

Rural North

Rural South

Town Centre Zone

Town Centre Zone

350

80

100
80
60
40
20

250
200
150
100
50

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2026

70

300

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

400

Town Centre Zone

120

0
2013

500

Floorspace (000 m2)

140

2016

20% of Theoretical

100

50
0
2013

Town Centre Zone

800

Floorspace (000 m2)

600

60
50
40
30
20
10

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

43

Local Centre Zone

Figure 3-5 shows that in most urban areas (except Urban North) the demand for floorspace
in the Local Centre zones exceeds the level of development suggested by the Contemporary
scenario. This result indicates that in the Town Centre zone, the market will not be satisfied
by current levels of development intensity and seek to intensify. However, in these areas
the demand does not exceed the 20% of total Theoretical scenario (green dotted line). This
indicates that if development intensity increases from historic rates the market could be
expected to satisfy demand as there are no constraints imposed by the PAUP to
development (in terms of capacity).
We note that the Urban Central graph shows that the demand forecasts come close to the
20% of Theoretical capacity scenario (green dotted line) by 2026. However, as the name
suggests, the 20% of theoretical capacity implies there is 80% of capacity still available above
the green dotted line. Given the level of PAUP development potential enabled in this zone
we do not consider that even this area would experience a shortage in the lifespan of the
PAUP.
The demand in the rural areas for this zone is unlikely to exceed the level of potential
development suggested by the Contemporary scenario.

Figure 3-5: Local Centre Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential Development
Urban Central
140

Urban North

Local Centre Zone

100

Urban South

Local Centre Zone

80

90

120

60
40

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

80

70
60
50
40
30
20

20

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

Urban West
80

60

2016

2021

40

High
Growth

30
20

0
2013

2026

Medium
Growth
Contemporary
2016

2021

2026

Rural South

Local Centre Zone

50

Local Centre Zone

45
50

60

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

50

Rural North

Local Centre Zone

70

50
40
30
20

40

40
30
20

35
30
25
20
15
10

10

10
0
2013

60

10

10

Floorspace (000 m2)

0
2013

20% of Theoretical

70

80
100

Local Centre Zone

5
2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

44

Neighbourhood Centre Zone

Figure 3-6 shows that in most urban areas (except Urban North) the demand for floorspace
in the Neighbourhood Centre zones exceeds the level of development suggested by either
scenario. This result indicates that in the Neighbourhood Centre zone, the market will not
be satisfied by historic levels of development intensity.
In this zone the 20% of total Theoretical development lies below the current development
intensity line (contemporary scenario). Given the level of PAUP development potential
enabled in this zone we consider that this area would experience a shortage in the lifespan
of the PAUP. The results do indicate that this zone will need to be monitored closely in the
urban areas and resource consents and other mechanisms utilised to ensure the market
continues to provide sufficient capacity to meet growth needs as and when required.
Demand in the Rural North areas for this zone is unlikely to exceed the level of potential
development suggested by the Contemporary scenario, while in the Rural South demand
exceeds the contemporary development line between 2021 and 2026.

Figure 3-6: Neighbourhood Centre Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential
Development
Urban Central

Urban North

Neighbourhood Centre Zone

50

35

45

Urban South

Neighbourhood Centre Zone

45

25
20
15

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

40

30

25
20
15
10

10
5

5
2016

2021

0
2013

2026

14

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

16

12
10
8
6
4

2016

2021

Medium
Growth

20
15

Contemporary

10

20% of Theoretical

35

50

30

40
30
20

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

Rural South

Neighbourhood Centre Zone

60

Neighbourhood Centre Zone

25
20
15
10
5

2
2021

25

0
2013

2026

10

2016

30

Rural North

Urban West
Neighbourhood Centre Zone
18

0
2013

35

Floorspace (000 m2)

0
2013

High
Growth

40

30

35

Neighbourhood Centre Zone

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

45

Mixed Use Zone

Figure 3-7 shows that in most areas (except Urban North) the demand for floorspace in the
Mixed Use zones exceeds the level of development suggested by the Contemporary
scenario, i.e. the orange or blue line exceeds the grey dotted line by or before 2026. This
result indicates that in the Mixed Use zone, the market will not be satisfied by historic levels
of development intensity. However, in all areas (other than Urban Central) demand does not
exceed the 20% of total Theoretical scenario (green dotted line).
This indicates that if development intensity increases from historic rates the market could be
expected to satisfy demand. Higher levels of intensity of development are anticipated for
the mixed use zones especially in and around centres and along high use transport routes.
We note that Urban Central graph shows that the demand forecasts exceed the 20% of
Theoretical scenario (green dotted line). This indicates that the market may be required to
develop at a much higher intensity than has been observed in the past. Significant capacity
still exists above the 20% threshold line so we do not consider that this area would
experience a shortage in the lifespan of the PAUP.

Figure 3-7: Mixed Use Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential Development
Urban North

Urban South

Mixed Use Zone

Mixed Use Zone

Mixed Use Zone

300

20% of Theoretical

400

1000

250

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

450

800
600
400

Floorspace (000 m2)

1200

Urban Central

200
150
100

200

350
300
250
200

High
Growth

150 Contemporary
100

50

Medium
Growth

50
0
2013

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

Urban West
180

Mixed Use Zone

60

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

Rural North

Rural South
Mixed Use Zone

90

80
60
40

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

100

40
30
20
10

20
0
2013

2026

80

50
120

2021

Mixed Use Zone

160
140

2016

70
60
50
40
30
20
10

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

46

General Business Zone

Figure 3-8 shows that in most urban areas (except Urban North) the demand for floorspace
in the General Business zones sits below the Contemporary scenario. Therefore the market
will be satisfied by historic levels of development intensity. In addition, in the areas where it
gets close to or exceeds the contemporary scenario there is significant capacity before the
20% of total theoretical capacity is exceeded.

Figure 3-8: General Business Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential
Development
Urban Central

Urban North

Urban South

General Business Zone

General Business Zone

General Business Zone

500

20% of Theoretical
250

400

120

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

300

450

140

100
80
60
40

Floorspace (000 m2)

160

350
300
250
200
150
100

20

250

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

Contemporary

High Growth

2016

2021

0
2013

Medium
Growth

2026

2016

2021

Urban West

Rural North

Rural South

General Business Zone

General Business Zone

General Business Zone

80

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

100

50

200

150

100

50

180

70

160

60

140

50
40
30
20
10

0
2013

150

50

Floorspace (000 m2)

0
2013

200

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2026

120
100
80
60
40
20

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

47

Business Park Zone

Figure 3-9 shows that demand for floorspace in the Business Park zones does not exceed the
level of development suggested by the Contemporary scenario. There is unlikely to be a
shortage in the Business Park zone, even if we assume that the market is frozen at the
historic levels of development intensity.

Figure 3-9: Business Park Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential
Development
Urban North

Urban Central
140

Business Park

Floorspace (000 m2)

Floorspace (000 m2)

20% of Theoretical

350

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2013

Business Park

400

300
250
200
150

Contemporary

100

High Growth

50
2016

2021

2026

0
2013

Medium
2016

2021 Growth 2026

48

Heavy Industry Zone

Figure 3-10 shows that demand for land in the Heavy Industry zone does not exceed the
level of vacant or vacant potential suggested by the CfGS. This result indicates that there is
unlikely to be a shortage in the Heavy Industry zone, even if we assume that the market is
frozen at the historic levels of development intensity.
It is important to note that Councils position in the PAUP has shifted between 2013 and
2015. In most areas this has meant an increase in the amount of Heavy Industrial land
capacity, except in the Urban North Zone. Changes in this area has seen capacity drop to
very close to high demand growth position by 2026 however the actual numbers here are
very small, easily compensated by growth elsewhere.
Council will be required to monitor growth and uptake of industrial land to ensure land
capacity constraints do not unduly impact on the market. It is especially important in the
case of industrial land due to the long lead times between identification and delivery of land
to market.

Figure 3-10: Heavy Industry Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential
Development
Urban Central
200

Urban North

Heavy Industry Zone

180

Vacant and Vacant Potential (2013)

10

160
140

Land (hectares)

Land (hectares)

Heavy Industry Zone

12

120
100
80
60
40

8
6

Vacant and Vacant Potential (2015)

4

High Growth

Medium
Growth

20
0
2013

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

Urban South
40

400

35

350

30

300
250
200
150

15
10
5

2021

2026

Heavy Industry Zone

20

50
2016

2026

25

100

0
2013

2021

Urban West

Heavy Industry Zone

Land (hectares)

Land (hectares)

450

2016

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

49

Light Industry Zone

Figure 3-11 shows that in most areas the demand for land in the Light Industry zone does not
exceed the available vacant or vacant potential. This result indicates that there is unlikely to
be a shortage in the Light Industry zone, even if we assume that the market is frozen at the
historic levels of development intensity and that a portion of the land is not available for
industrial activities (as was observed in the primary research) over the life of the PAUP.
Note also the increase in the amount of vacant and vacant potential land made available in
the Urban South area (up from 692ha to 1,055ha). This is important give the long lead times
to identify and bring industrial land to market.

Figure 3-11: Light Industry Zone Outlook to 2026: Demand and Potential
Development

160

Urban Central

Urban North

Urban South

Light Industry Zone

Light Industry Zone

Light Industry Zone

350

140

Vacant/Vacant Potential
(2015)

1000
Vacant/Vacant Potential (2015) less non-ind

100
80
60
40

250

Land (hectares)

Land (hectares)

120

Land (hectares)

1200

300

200
150
100

0
2013

250

2016

2021

0
2013

2026

2016

2021

Urban West

Rural North

Light Industry Zone

Light Industry Zone

160

Vacant/Vacant Potential (2013)

600

High
Growth

400
200

50

20

800

0
2013

2026

Medium
Growth
2016

2021

2026

Rural South
250

Light Industry Zone

140
200

150

100

Land (hectares)

120

Land (hectares)

Land (hectares)

200

100
80
60

150

100

40

50

50
20

0
2013

3.4.2

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

0
2013

2016

2021

2026

Outlook 2041 Business Land and Floorspace

Analysis and graphical representation of the key results covering the length of the Auckland
Plan (i.e. to 2041 are contained in the main report at section 3.4.2. Those results are not
presented here as they do not add significantly to understanding the immediate issues facing
the region with respect to industrial land.

50

3.5

Stage 3 Findings
IHP - Question
In light of the above (Stages 1 and 2), how do the PAUP provisions meet the
projected need for zoned opportunity, by zone? How does the supply of PAUP land
compare to future demand by business sector?
Answer;
The horizon of the PAUP has been analysed by comparing medium and high economic
forecasts to 2026 with land supply provided via the PAUP zones. The results indicate the
following,

Generally, there is sufficient vacant and vacant potential land (identified in the
CfGS), in the industrial zones to accommodate expected demand.
Most areas having over 13 years land supply under both the medium or high growth
forecasts.
Generally, there is sufficient capacity in the commercial zones to accommodate
expected demand. In most cases the forecast demand can be accommodated even
if the market is assumed to be frozen at historic levels of development intensity.
There are some instances where demand exceeds the historic level of development
intensity. In these case the market will need to increase development intensity
beyond historic levels (mostly in Urban Central and across Auckland for the
Neighbourhood Centre zone). However, the increase in development intensity is
well below the vast amounts of enabled development provided by the PAUP rules in
all these locations.

This study has also assessed the demand and supply of commercial and industrial land over
the horizon of the Auckland Plan by comparing the medium and high economic forecasts to
2041 with capacity provided in the PAUP zones and the FUZ (as suggested by the FULSS).
The results indicate in most zones and locations demand for commercial space and industrial
land by 2041 is not expected to exceed development potential in the PAUP and FUZ.

51

Further/Other Analysis
We note that while every best effort has been made to address the questions posed by the
IHP, the study may highlight areas in which the IHP may like further information. For
example,
1. Retail Assessment: much of the focus of this report is on the Light Industry zone. It
may be that the IHP requires more detail on other aspects of business land demand
(i.e. retail). We consider that the work undertaken by Ms Fairgray and others on
retail should be viewed as the most detailed available information on this topic.
However, following rezoning capacities will have changed. It is possible to isolate
retail capacity from commercial and report on this separately, if required.
2. Case studies of Light Industry Business areas: another example is the level of detail
presented in the Light Industry survey. The technical study (at 190 pages) did not
attempt to undertake case studies or maps of each individual Light Industry zone
business area. However, while this was not required to answer the IHPs questions
we consider that it may be useful for the panel. As such we will provide a booklet of
maps.
3. Parcel Size Distribution: we also note that in a previous report by Mr Nunns there
was an analysis of parcel size. Mr Nunns report states that It is important to
understand the size distribution of vacant parcels. Some activities, such as
warehousing or large-format retail, may require large sites to operate efficiently. In
addition, large parcels may also be more feasible to develop for smaller-scale
activities due to economies of scale in the development process. Broadly speaking, it
may be the case that large parcels are more market-attractive for development in
some sectors. We agree with this statement, however CfGS information was only
made available in the past few weeks and therefore this type of analysis has not
possible in the timeframes.
4. Detailed Outlook: the panel may wish to have detailed understanding of future
outlook, in terms of demand and supply by particular PAUP Activity types, zones and
business areas. In our view this level of forecasting would not be possible in the
time available (it may not be mathematically tractable). Solving this problem would
require thousands of forecasts, i.e. 9 zones by 50 PAUP Activity types by roughly 440
Business areas which would require 200,000 unique forecasts. Therefore we do not
consider it sensible to undertake this analysis.
In order to deliver timely answers on the IHPs questions, we have not attempted to second
guess further analysis that the panel may wish to undertake or go beyond the scope set out
at the beginning of this assessment. However, as outlined above there are a few areas
where it may be sensible to provide more information requiring further analysis.

52