Round 9.

0 Cooperative Forecast
Results and Methods
By Robert Ruiz, Research Manager and
Pamela Zorich, Planner Coordinator

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Montgomery County, Round 9.0

Cooperative Forecast Participation

Round 1 1976
Round 2 1979
Round 3 1983
Round 3.5 - 1985 Update
Round 4 1987
Round 4.1 1991
Round 5 - January 1994
Round 5.1 - May 1994
Round 5.2 1995
Round 5.3 1996
Round 5.4 1997
Round 6a 1998
Round 6.1 1999
Round 6.2 2000
Round 6.3 2003
Round 6.4 - Never Adopted

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

Round 6.4A 2004

Round 7.0 2005
Round 7.0a 2006
Round 7.1 2008
Round 7.2 2009
Round 7.2A 2009
Round 8.0 2010
Round 8.0a 2011
Round 8.1 2012
Round 8.2 2013
Round 8.3 - 2014
Round 9.0 2016

March 17, 2016

Montgomery County, Round 9.0

Cooperative Forecast Participation

Maryland:
Montgomery County
Bowie
Charles County
College Park
Frederick
Frederick County
Gaithersburg
Greenbelt
Prince George's County
Rockville
Takoma Park

Virginia:
Alexandria
Arlington County
Fairfax
Fairfax County
Falls Church
Loudoun County
Manassas
Manassas Park
Prince William County
District of Columbia

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Montgomery County, Round 9.0

Cooperative Forecasting Process

Regional Econometric
Model Projections
Employment
Population
Households
Reconciliation

Regional
Forecast
Jurisdictional
Small Area
(TAZ)

Local Forecasts
Employment
Population
Households
Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

MONTGOMERY COUNTY
Population and Household
Cooperative Forecasts
Round 9.0

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Population and Household Forecasts

Montgomery County, Round 9.0
1,500,000

Population

1,300,000
1,100,000
900,000
700,000

Households

500,000
300,000

2010*

2015

2020

2025

Source: MNCPPC, Montgomery County Planning Department, Research & Special Projects Division.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

2030

2035

2040

2045

Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

March 17, 2016

Regional Comparison, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast (MWCOG Draft)

Population 2015 - 2045

Fairfax County
Montgomery County

91.4

899.7

District of Columbia
Loudoun County

150.8

City of Alexandria

147.0

56.8%

85.7

35.1%

51.5

City of Frederick

70.4

22.7

City of Rockville

66.3

23.6

City Gaithersburg

67.1

21.7

City of Fairfax

3.7

City of Manassas Park

1.6

35.6%

Absolute Increase 2015 - 2045

32.4%
22.6%
14.8%
11.1%
34.4%

4.5

2015 Population

32.2%

9.6

City of Manassas

City of Falls Church

31.3%

69.0

220.5

Charles County

39.6%

97.6

246.5

Arlington County

36.0%

130.7

363.5

Frederick County

32.9%

141.9

431.8

10.2%
46.9%

315.0

672.2

Prince William County

22.5%

232.8

1,036.7

Prince George's County

25.0%

281.4

1,125.4

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

(Thousands)
Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

March 17, 2016

Regional Comparison, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast (MWCOG Draft)

Households 2015 - 2045

Fairfax County
Montgomery County

Loudoun County

32.5

70.8

Charles County
City of Frederick

27.3

11.4

City of Rockville

26.9

12.7

City Gaithersburg

24.7

11.7

City of Manassas

2.9

City of Fairfax

2.1

City of Falls Church

3.0

City of Manassas Park

0.5

2015 Households

47.7%
79.9%

40.9

53.7

54.7%

46.4

89.5

City of Alexandria

39.0%

38.2

103.6

Frederick County

60.9%

63.7

121.1

Arlington County

47.6%

62.2

141.0

54.4%

145.2

297.1

Prince William County

21.9%

66.5

314.9

District of Columbia

31.8%

113.6

380.2

Prince George's County

37.2%

144.2

403.9

Absolute Increase 2015 - 2045

44.9%
50.2%
53.2%
22.1%
24.8%
58.8%
11.7%

100

200

300

400

500

(Thousands)
Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

March 17, 2016

600

Population Forecast Methodology

AGE COHORT-COMPONENT MODEL
Steps in Age CohortComponent Model:

County Cohort Component Model

Projections 2025-2030
2020 to 2025
Females
NUMBER
AGE
FEMALES SURV RATES
INTERVALS (t) IN 2020
2020

AGE
INTERVALS (t)

SURVIVORS
2025

Add BIRTHS

0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
TOTALS

33,229
32,262
34,537
30,956
30,260
38,478
37,784
38,137
36,708
37,552
37,749
38,174
34,634
28,820
23,119
15,949
10,593
12,336
551,277

0.999089
0.999495
0.998988
0.998128
0.997476
0.996775
0.995631
0.993624
0.989902
0.984393
0.977735
0.967934
0.951412
0.924681
0.881485
0.809356
0.690046
0.420138

0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

34,333
33,199
32,246
34,502
30,898
30,184
38,354
37,619
37,894
36,337
36,966
36,909
36,950
32,951
26,650
20,379
12,908
12,492

MIGRATION
RATES
2.35%
-2.18%
2.98%
-6.87%
-0.69%
37.48%
10.93%
3.43%
0.15%
-0.05%
-1.90%
-4.00%
-6.07%
-5.25%
-0.70%
2.95%
4.10%
1.41%

FEMALES
POPULATION
2025
35,140
32,474
33,207
32,132
30,686
41,497
42,545
38,908
37,950
36,319
36,262
35,433
34,706
31,220
26,463
20,980
13,438
12,668
572,027

Age cohorts by sex

Apply survival rates
Age survivors by
5 years
Add births

Apply migration
rates
Forecasts age by
sex for next 5 years

Repeat for 5-year

increments until
2045
March 17, 2016

Natural Increase, Largest Component of Montgomerys Population Growth

Source: 2000-2014 Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Historical Birth Trends in Montgomery County

SOURCE: Vital Statistics Admin, MD Dept. of Health & Mental Hygiene

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Changing Mix of Residents More Dramatic than Growth

MONTGOMERY COUNTY POPULATION MIGRATION TRENDS

1990-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, 1990-2014

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Montgomery: Magnet for Foreign Born

Foreign born percent of population

342,900
32%

1980

33%

1990

2000

2010

2014

27%
22% 23%
19%
14%

16%

15%

12%

13% 13%

12%

11%

10%
7%

6%

5%
Montgomery County

Maryland

9%

8%

Washington Region

United States

Source: 1980-2000 U.S. Census, 2010 & 2014 American Community Survey, 1 year estimate

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Changing Mix of Residents More Dramatic than Growth

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Thumbprint of the Baby Boomers

Baby Boomers Drive Rise in Age 65+

Percent of Population by Age Group
30%

2000

2014

28%

2045
24%

% of Population

25%
20%

20%

19% 19%

19% 19% 19%

18%

18%
14%

15%

24%

15%

14%
11%

10%

7% 7%
6%

5%
0%
<5

5-19

20-34
35-44
Age Group

45-64

65+

Source: U.S. Census, 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey; draft Round 9.0 Forecast .
Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Household Forecast Methodology

HEADSHIP RATES by HOUSEHOLDER AGE 2015-2045

Households:
Households are calculated by
applying a headship rate to the
household population by age. The
headship rate is the percent of
persons in an age group that are
householders.
The household forecast uses
average headship rates from 2005
to 2014 from the U.S. Census
Bureaus American Community
Survey.
Round 9.0 Forecast
Research and Special Projects Division

Average Headship Rate

2005-2014
Headship
Age
rate
15 to 24 years
0.068
25 to 34 years
0.405
35 to 44 years
0.507
45 to 54 years
0.557
55 to 64 years
0.567
65 to 74 years
0.581
75 and over
0.644

March 17, 2016

Employment Forecast

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Employment Forecasts in Context, Montgomery County

977,163

1,000,000

900,000

800,000
715,100
670,404

At-Place Employment

700,000

644,789

657,354

600,000

681,500

500,000

493,500

A 2010 to 2045 gain

of 188,000 jobs or
38% for Round 9.0

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000
1990

1995

2000

2005

Round 5.2 (1994)

Round 8.0 (2009)

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

2010

2015

2020

Round 6.1 (1999)

Round 8.4 (2014)

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Round 7.0 (2005)

Round 9.0 (2016)

March 17, 2016

Employment Forecasts in Context, COG TPB Region

Transportation Planning Board Area, Employment (in thousands)

6,000.0
5,561.5
5,290.5
5,047.0
5,000.0

4,754.1
4,453.0
4,285.7

4,137.7

4,000.0

4,130.4
3,953.4

3,927.2
3,770.9
3,565.8
3,345.9
3,001.0

3,149.9

3,000.0

2,000.0

1,000.0

0.0
2010

2015

2020

2025

Round 8.4

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

2030

2035

2040

2045

Round 9.0

March 17, 2016

Round 9.0 Employment Forecasts by Jurisdiction

Employment 2015 - 2045

District of Columbia
Fairfax County

244.6

654.1

Montgomery County

163.7

517.8

Prince George's County

63.6

338.6

Arlington County
Loudoun County
Prince William County
Frederick County

106.4

City of Alexandria

106.3

City of Rockville

26.8%

28.5
47.1

City of Frederick

50.1

11.1

22.2%

Charles County

46.6

14.9

32.0%

City Gaithersburg

46.4

20.2

43.5%

City of Manassas

5.3

City of Fairfax

5.8

City of Falls Church

6.6

City of Manassas Park

0.6

44.3%

2015 Employment

32.0%

23.3

72.6

18.8%

78.6%

113.7

144.6

31.6%

75.6%

124.4

164.5

37.4%

33.3%

69.9

209.6

31.0%

247.1

798.3

Absolute Increase 2015 - 2045

20.7%
28.0%
55.0%
12.5%

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

(Thousands)
Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010
Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wages (QCEW) at-place employment
data from the US Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) and the Maryland
Department of Labor, Licensing, and
Regulations (DLLR) are used for a
portion of the 2010 base.

These jobs are covered by

Unemployment Insurance (UI).

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010
Visualization of process to attain total employment:

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010
Wage and salary jobs not covered by unemployment insurance:
a)

Factor of 1.045 applied to covered employment to get total wage and

salary jobs (covered + not covered employment).

b)

1.045 factor is unique to Montgomery County and was developed by

MWCOG using BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly
Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data.

c)

This category of workers includes persons employed by religious

institutions, for example.

The Self-Employed:
a)

Factor of 1.06 applied to calculate the number of self-employed persons

b)

1.06 factor is unique to Montgomery County and was developed by

MWCOG using the Census Bureaus American Community Survey (ACS)
Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010

The non-civilian military employment :

a)

Among sources, includes Department of Defenses (DOD) Base Structure

Report: A Summary of the Real Property Inventory reports that tabulates
military personnel by base.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI
The forecast of future wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance
(UI) is calculated using shift-share analysis
a)

What is shift-share method:

i.

The shift-share method assumes that a local employment

industrys growth is affected by its own local industry trends, as
well as by that industrys historical and expected regional or
national dynamics.

ii.

The shift-share method includes a shift-term that account[s] for

[the] differences between local and reference region growth rates
that cause an industrys employment to shift into or out of a
region (Klosterman, Community Analysis and Planning
Techniques, 1990).

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI
b)

What assumptions and inputs were used in the shift-share analysis

i.

Key assumption is that in the thirty-five year forecast horizon we

will have cyclical booms and busts, but that none of these will be
as exceptionally prolonged and as deep as the 2007 to 2009
recession.

ii.

Inputs include employment estimates change by industry at the

Montgomery County-level and Transportation Planning Board
(TPB) regional-level from 1991 to 2000.

i.

More recent employment data by industry that included the lead

up to, and actual, 2007 to 2009 great recession were not used
since this recession was assessed to be an anomaly.

ii.

Inputs also include TPB regional industry forecasts from IHS

Global Insight

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

480,000

Annual Average Wage and Salary Employment (UI Covered)

Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by

UI
464,833
455,343

460,000

440,000

Wage and Salary Employment trends are improving:

- Avg. Annual Job Growth 91 to 96: 4,325 jobs
- Avg. Annual Job Growth 09 to 14: 2,408 jobs

420,000

400,000

Historical growth:
- Avg. Annual Job Growth 83 to 87: 22,600 jobs

380,000
366,107

360,000

Recession,
3Q1990 to 1Q1991,
8 months

Recession,
1Q2001 to 4Q2001,
8 months

Recession,
4Q2007 to 2Q2009,
18 months

340,000

Payroll Employment (Yearly Avg.)

Source: Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing & Regulation. Tabulated by MNCPPC, Montgomery County Planning Department, Research & Special Projects Division.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI
c)

Wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment outputs:

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI
c)

Wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment outputs:

Employment Change by Sector 2015 2045,

Montgomery County
Professional and Bus. Services

61,000

Natural Resources and Mining 400

-10,000

Information
State Government + Local

33,300

Educational & Health Services

35,400

Leisure & Hospitality

20,400

Other Services

1,400

Financial Activities

16,400

Trade, Transportation, and

29,600

Manufacturing

14,300

Federal Government
-5,200
-20,000

20,000

40,000

60,000

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

Employment Change by Sector 2015 2045,

COG / TPB Planning Area
Professional & Business Services
Construction, Natural Resources,
Information
State & Local Government
Educational & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Financial Activities
Transp., Trade, & Utilities
Manufacturing-3,488
Federal Government
-43,796
-100,000

601,995
91,927
49,022
80,582
82,153
50,178
14,467
8,395
5,915

100,000

300,000

500,000

700,000

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 3: Calculate Non UI, Self-Employed, and Military for Future Years
Visualization of process to attain total employment:

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 4: Reconciliation with MWCOGs Econometric Model

Source: MWCOG Department of Community Planning & Services, Round 8.3 Cooperative Forecasts: Process and
Review presentation, January 17, 2014.

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Methodology, Montgomery County

Step 4: Reconciliation with MWCOGs Econometric Model
Montgomery Countys share of Econometric Model

Draft and submitted forecast

800,000

681,500

600,000
500,000

493,500

300,000
200,000

100,000
0

Share of the MWCOG Econometric Model

At-Place Employment

700,000

400,000

20.0%

728,900

19.0%
18.0%
17.0%
16.0%

16.5% 16.5%

15.0%

16.0% 16.1%

16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%

14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%

2,010

2,015

2,020

2025

Round 9.0 Draft

2030

2035

2040

2045

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Round 9.0

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Allocation

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Forecast Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment

Allocation of
Households,
Population, and
Employment are done
at the Transportation
Analysis Zone (TAZ)
level.
Planning performs
allocations for 321
TAZs
Rockville and
Gaithersburg perform
their own allocations

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016

Forecast Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment

Key Assumptions and Elements Considered

Households
and Population:
Assumptions are made on the
percent of housing units that are
occupied and vacant.
Likewise, assumptions are made
on the average number of
persons per occupied units.
All new households are allocated
to new housing

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

Employment:
Assumptions are made on the
percent of office, retail, and
industrial space that is occupied
and vacant.
Not all office jobs allocated to
new construction. Some jobs
also allocated to existing vacant
space.
The self-employed are
distributed among residential
TAZs

March 17, 2016

Q&A

Round 9.0 Forecast

Research and Special Projects Division

March 17, 2016