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Some Applications of Mathematics in Solving Managerial Economics Problems
Some Applications of Mathematics in Solving Managerial Economics Problems
Abstract
Most problems that occur in decision and managerial sciences often require the use of mathematics
for their solutions. Some of the aspect of mathematics used to get the solutions to these problems
includes numerical analysis, statistical estimation, forecasting, game theory, optimization,
simulation, etc. In this paper, techniques of optimization (break-even analysis) and forecasting
(ordinary least-square) were applied to managerial economic problems. The applications of these
mathematics techniques pave the way for the determination of the value of the independent
variables (output level) that maximizes or minimize the value of the dependent variable (profit or
loss). This break-even output level is important because with it managers can maximize profits and at
the same time choose production level (output) that will guarantee the avoidance of waste of scarce
resources.
Keywords: Mathematics; Economics; Optimization; Forecasting; Break-even-analysis
1. Introduction
Mathematics provides a powerful technique of analysis in economics. It is a technique in which we
make certain assumptions regarding the behaviour of variables and their casual interrelationships.
The job of mathematics is to enable the analyst to discover and estimate the phenomena in
quantitative terms. A substantial portion of economic argument and analysis involves the use of
quantitative data and mathematics is very useful (and in many cases essential) in this task. A number
of mathematicians contributed greatly to the use of mathematics in economics. Some of which are:
Augustin Courtnot, a French mathematician. He was a great defender of mathematical method in
economics science. Irving Fisher, a great mathematician of his time. He used mathematics in an
extensive manner, Gustav Cassel and many other (Bhatia, 2006).
Today, mathematical techniques can be used to solve managerial economic problems. These
problems arise from the profit oriented and non-profit oriented organizations. Managerial
economics use economics concepts and decision science techniques to solve managerial problems.
The decision science comprises of mathematical techniques such as numerical analysis, statistical
estimation, forecasting, game theory, optimization, simulation, etc. All these are termed tools and
techniques of analysis.
expenses (variable cost) would lead to an increase in price in the case of monopoly, but not
necessarily equal to the increase in cost.
Courtnot is well known for his solution of the problem of duopoly in which two sellers are faced by
numerous buyers. But it may be noted that Courtnot here makes certain assumptions which are
quite unrealistic-though logically quite valid and acceptable. He assumes that each individual seller
proceeds on the assumptions that his rivals output is constant and that rival will not react to the
action taken by other seller. On this basis, Courtnot is able to maintain that the equilibrium price
here will be higher than when there is a third seller also, and lower than if the two sellers had
combined. It also goes to Courtnot's credit to have obtained a general supply curve for the industry
as a whole. He also shows that the intersection of the general demand curve and general supply
curve would give the determination of price (Bhatia, 2006). Fisher (1867-1943) in Bhatia (2006)
revealed that he removed the element of hedonism from theory of demand. His investigations
adopted an operational theory of cardinal utility. In this theory, a unit of measurement of utility (or
util) is taken as equivalent to the marginal utility of a particular commodity A. Then the marginal
utility of B is measured by considering the amount of B which the consumer is ready to take in place
of one unit of A. The idea of the good being useful or not, good or bad, was not brought in. In spite
of the fact that Fisher; like Edgeworth, also developed the concept of indifference curves, he tries to
measure utility in cardinal terms. And Fisher's work was more advanced than that of his
predecessors. He drew the price and income lines. He also took note of the distinction between
superior and inferior goods as also the substitutability and complementary between goods.
Cassel (1866-1945) in Bhatia (2006) revealed that he was an engineer turned economist and this
materially influenced his thinking and approach. Cassel rejects the marginal utility and its role.
Instead he brings in the concept of scarcity of goods which gives rise to the phenomena of prices.
As noted, Cassel seeks to explain the economic phenomena by a single principle of scarcity. With
unlimited wants and limited supply, there is a need to exchange and price formation comes in to
balance the demand and supply. It is on this basis that he gives us his theory of general equilibrium.
He assumes perfect competition and static economy. In his general equilibrium, the beginning is
made by a set of demand functions. There is one demand functions for each good and its demand
depends upon not only its own price but also prices of other goods which may be its substitutes or
complementaries. In equilibrium, the demand for each good must be equal to its supply and this
gives us another set of simultaneous equation. Cassel then introduced the assumption that supply
depends upon the given quantity of factors of production. For any given period of time there are
certain quantities of specific productive factors available and they have their own "technical
coefficient" (a technical coefficient denotes the amount of a given good which one unit of a given
productive factor helps to produce, in combination with other inputs). The prices of the factors of
production should then be equal to the prices of the goods which they produce. At this stage, he
introduced money. The prices of the factors of production would be nothing but the total income
going to the consumers. Given all these conditions and interdependence, Cassel sets up a system of
equations by assuming that fixed and constant per cent changes occur in production activity. A
solution of the system is then made possible which would give us the set of relative prices. If,
therefore, we are able to specify one price, all the remaining prices get specified. To this end, he
goes ahead to the determination of the value of money. Later in the process also, he dropped
various simplifying assumptions to make his analysis of the general equilibrium more realistic.
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Arabian mathematician al-Khworizimi. The title has been translated as the science of restoration and
reduction, which means transposing and combining similar terms (of an equation). The Latin
translation of al-jabr led to the name of the branch of mathematics we now call algebra.
Nicholson (1997) revealed that many economic models start with the assumption that an agent is
seeking to find the optimal value of some functions. For consumers that functions measure the
utility provided by their purchases; for firms it measures their profits. But in both cases, the formal,
mathematical aspects of the solution are identical.
5. Optimization
For any problem to be solved efficiently there must be a method with which such a problem is
tackled. In managerial or decision sciences there are relevant methods or techniques through which
managerial problems are solved. Such techniques include: numerical analysis, statistical estimation,
forecasting, game theory, optimization, simulation, etc. This paper concerned with the optimization
and forecasting as techniques (methods) through which the problem under discussion will be solved.
Optimization is the technique of finding the value of the independent variable(s) that maximizes or
minimizes the value of the dependent variable (Dwivedi, 2002). The most common objective that
economic analysis seeks to achieve is the goal of maximizing economic advantages (or minimizing
disadvantages). Consumers seek to maximize utility. Firms seek to maximize profits, output level and
minimize costs. In economics, we generally group all minimization and maximisation problems
together under the broad concept of optimization. The economist is frequently called upon to help a
firm maximize profits and levels of physical output and productivity, as well as the use of scarce
natural resources. This is achieved through a technique called break-even analysis. Therefore,
optimization is concerned with maximization of economic advantages such as profits, levels of
output, etc and minimization of economic disadvantages such as cost, loss etc. Maximizing or
minimizing economic functions is the major concern of this paper.
5.1 Optimization: Break-Even Analysis
In traditional theory of firm, the basic objective of the firm is to maximize profit. Maximum profit
does not necessarily coincide with the minimum cost as far as the traditional theory of firm is
concerned. Besides, profits are maximum at a specific level of output which is difficult to know
beforehand. Even if it is known, it cannot be achieved at the outset of production. In real life, firms
begin their activity even at a loss, in anticipation of profit in the future. Break-even analysis is an
important analytical technique used to study the relationship between the total costs, total revenue
and total profits and losses over the whole range of stipulated output. The break-even analysis is a
technique of having a preview of profit prospects and a toll of profit planning. It integrates the cost
and revenue estimates to ascertain the profits and losses associated with different levels of output.
The relationship between cost and output and between price and output may be linear or non-linear
in nature. This paper is considering the relationships that are linear in nature.
5.2 Algebra of Break-Even Analysis
The break-even output can also be calculated algebraically. Although cost volume-profit charts are
often used to portray profit/output relations, algebraic techniques are typically more efficient for
analyzing decision problem. Let
P = Price per unit sold
Q = Quantity produced and sold
TFC = Total Fixed Costs
AVC = Average Variable Cost and
= Profit Contribution
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(1)
Thus, break-even quantity levels are found by dividing the per unit profit contribution by
total fixed costs.
5.3 FORECASTING
Forecasting or prediction is one of the techniques of macroeconomic models. Empirical
macroeconomic model (more commonly called macro econometric models) are used to predict the
future values of key economic aggregates like output, employment, prices, and balance of payments.
More generally, one can consider ability to predict as a by-product of the ability to explain (Ekanem
and Iyoha, 2002). Forecasting is also a technique used for planning. This is achieved through the
information gathered in the past. When this information is analyzed critically, prediction becomes
possible. In recent years, techniques of forecasting future economic events or the values of key
economic aggregates have become more numerous and more scientific. The need for generating
ever more accurate and reliable forecasts has been driven by the knowledge that good forecasts
would invariably improve decision making by both government functionaries and operators in the
private sector. Although there are many techniques for generating economic forecasts, it has been
found that econometric forecasts are generally more accurate and reliable (Ekanem and Iyoha,
2002).
5.4 Forecasting Techniques
The technique of forecasting to be presented in this study is called the Ordinary Least Square (OLS).
Regression technique minimizes the error term with a view of finding the regression equation that
best fits the observed data. So, the problem is how to minimize the error term. The technique that
regression analysis uses to minimize the error term is called the Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
method. It is the sum of the square of the error terms that regression techniques seeks to minimize
and find the values of a and b that produce a best fit line a and b are defined by
)( ) ( )(
( )
( )( )
( )
---------------------------------(2)
----------------------------------(3)
It can therefore be seen that mathematics provides powerful techniques which are been used in
solving managerial economics problems. This will further be proved in the data analysis of this
research work.
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obtained by subtracting total cost (TC) from total revenue (TR) in each month. Note that each carton
is sold at N800.00.
6.1.2 Illustration of Break-Even Analysis Algebraically
The break even output can be calculated algebraically. From equation (1), the break-even
quantity level was given as, (QBE
Where
QBE = break-even quantity
TFC = total fixed cost
P = price per unit
AVC = average variable cost, and
= per unit profit contribution (P-AVC)
From table 2, we can see that
TFC = N20,000
AVC = N600
P= N800 and
c = N2 00
Substituting these values into equation (1), we have
--------------------------------------------------------- (5)
Therefore, the break-even quantity level is 100 units.
6.2 Geographical Determination of Break Even Quantity
The break-even quantity level can also be determined graphically. Below is the graph
showing the relationship between total cost, total revenue and the quantity produced/sold in each
month. The break-even quantity level is determined based on the information given in table 2
above.
Figure 1: Graphical Determination of Break-Even Quantity Level
GRAPH
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The horizontal axis represent output (Q). The vertical axis represents total cost and total revenue
respectively. Since fixed costs are constant regardless of the output produced, they are indicated by
a horizontal line. Variable cost at each output level is measured by the distance between the total
cost curve and the constant fixed cost curve. The total revenue curve indicates the price/demand
relation for the firm product; profits or losses at each output are shown by the distance between
total revenue and total cost curves.
6.2.1 Illustration on Forecasting
Table 3: Registration of Quantity Produced/Sold on cost of Production
Month
Cost of Production
Total Revenue
(N in 000) X
(N in 000) Y
X2
Dec
44
32
1936
Jan
68
64
4624
Feb
92
96
8464
Mar
116
128
13456
Apr
140
160
19600
May
164
192
26896
Jun
188
224
35344
Jul
212
256
44944
Aug
236
288
55696
Sep
260
320
67600
=278560
N = 10
= 1520
=1760
From table three 3, we can see that
N = 10
= 1520
= 1760
= 278560
= 330880
Now by substituting the values of N, , ,
and
we get the value of the constant a and b as follows.
(
)(
) (
)(
)
XY
1408
4352
8832
14848
22400
31488
42112
54272
67968
83200
=330880
( )
(
(
) (
) (
)(
)
)
( )
The constant a = 9258.69 is the intercept; constant b = 1.33 gives the slope of the regression line.
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Now that we have got the numerical values of constant a = 9258.96 and b = 1.33 we can write the
regression equation of the best fit by substituting these values into equation (4) thus.
Y = 9258.69 + 1.33X . (8)
Equation (8) is the estimated regression equation. By substituting the value for X from the observed
data (given in table 3), we can obtain the regression line. Equation (8) is an important and fairly
reliable tool for predicting the approximate quantity produced/sold in response to a given cost of
production. For, example, if managers decide to spend 308 thousand in November (forecast month),
they can predict the approximate quantity to be produced/sold in that month assuming the
response of the buyers in instant as follows.
Quantity to be produced/sold (Nov)
= 9258.69 + 1.33 (308)
= 9258.69+409.64
= 9668.33
Quantity to be produced/sold = 9668 units approximately ..(9)
7. Discussion of Result
From equation (5), the break-even quantity level was obtained to be 100 units. This is the output
level at which total cost equals total revenue. Any quantity below this level if output is profitable
over the whole range of stipulated output. Figure 1 also shows the situation graphically. We saw
from the graph that the break-even quantity level is indicated at a point where the total cost curve
and the total revenue curves intersected. This means that if the firm chooses to provide. Below the
break-even point, he will suffer losses. Conversely, if he chooses to produce above the break-even
point, he will be profitable. Under normal circumstances, no producer will choose to produce below
the break-even point as profit maximization is the primary concern of any business set-up.
The result obtained from equation (9) above show that if the estimated regression equation is
obtained, it will be possible for the firms or managers of such company to forecast the appropriate
future value of the expected future output/total of the revenue as we can see from equation (9). The
future value (output/total revenue) was forecasted to be 9668 units meaning that if managers
decide to spend 308 thousand at cost of production in November, they can expect the output/total
revenue of approximate 9668 units. Multiplying this value by 800 (price per unit), we have 7734400
as the expected or predicted total revenue.
8. Conclusions
Based on the result obtained, it can be seen that mathematics plays an important role in the
solutions of managerial economic problems. Optimization techniques particularly the break-even
analysis was used to determine both algebraically and graphically. This break-even output level is
important because with it managers can maximize profits and at the same time choose production
level (output) that will guarantee the avoidance of waste of scarce resources. Similarly, the
estimated regression equation was obtained. Estimated regression equation is an important and
fairly reliable tool for predicting the future approximate value. The forecasted approximate quantity
to be produced/sold was determined with the help of the regression equation. This was achieved by
substituting for X in the estimated regression equation.
References
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81
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Authors Bibliography
[1]N.D.Oye, receive his M.Tech OR (Operations Research) degree from the Federal University of
Technology Yola- Nigeria in 2002. He is a lecturer in the department of Mathematics and Computer
Science in the same University (for the past 15yrs). At the moment he is a Phd student in the
department of Information Systems in the Faculty of computer Science and Infor-mation systems at
the Univeristi Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia. +60129949511
oyenath@yahoo.co.uk (Corresponding Author).
[2] Z. K. Shallsuku, received his Msc Mathematics degree from the Federal University of Technology
Yola- Nigeria in 2005. He is a Lecturer in the department of Mathematics and computer Science.
FUTY- Nigeria. At the moment he is a PhD student in the department of Mathematics University of
Jos- Nigeria.
zshallsuku@yahoo.com +2348036189202.
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