AP STATISTICS

6.5 Independence

6.5 Objectives:
! Understand the definition of
independence
! Understand the multiplication rule
for finding probabilities of
independent events
! Be able to find probabilities of
independent events when presented
with either a count or probability
information in a table, formula, or
verbal form.

6.5 Objectives:
! Integrate the concepts of
conditional probability and
independence to correctly analyze and
compute probabilities of and events
! Have a sense that while there is a
technical distinction between sampling
with and without replacement, with
samples where n < 0.05N the practical
outcome of the two sampling
strategies is rarely important

Sometimes the knowledge that one event has

occurred does NOT change our assessment of
the likelihood that another event occurs.
Consider the genetic trait,
hitch hikers thumb, which is
the ability to bend the last
joint of the thumb back at an
angle of 60 or more.
Whether or not an offspring has hitch hikers thumb
is determined by two random events: which gene is
contributed by the father and which gene is
contributed by the mother. Which gene is
contributed by the father does NOT affect which
gene is contributed by the mother

These are independent events.

Independent Events
Two events are independent if knowing that one
will occur (or has occurred) does not change the
probability that the other occurs.
Two events, E and F, are said to be independent
if P(E|F) = P(E).
If P(E|F) = P(E), it is also true that P(F|E) =
P(F).
If two events are not
independent, they are said
to be dependent events.

Independent Events
In terms of dice let A be the event the
white die is a one, and B be the event the
blue die is a one.

So as we would expect, the roll of one die

has no effect on another

Independent Events
What if the white die is showing 1 does
this affect the chance the sum of the
two dice is 3? Let C be the event the
dice sum to 3.

So these two events are not independent

Lets consider a bank that offers

different types of loans:
The bank offers both adjustable-rate and fixed-rate
loans on single-family dwellings, condominiums and
multifamily dwellings. The following table, called a jointprobability table, displays probabilities based upon the
banks long-run loaning practices.
Single Family

Condo

Adjustable

.40

.21

.09

.70

Fixed

.10

.09

.11

.30

Total

.50

.30

.20

P(Adjustable loan) =

.70

Multifamily Total

Bank Loans Continued . . .

Single Family

Condo

Adjustable

.40

.21

.09

.70

Fixed

.10

.09

.11

.30

Total

.50

.30

.20

P(Adjustable loan) =

Multifamily Total

.70

P(Adjustable loan|Condo) =

.21/.30 = .70

Knowing that the loan is for a condominium

does not change the probability that it is an
adjustable-rate loan. Therefore, the event
that a randomly selected loan is adjustable
and the event that a randomly selected loan
is for a condo are independent.

Multiplication Rule for Two

Independent Events
Two events E and F are independent, if
and only if,

Hitch Hikers Thumb

Revisited
Suppose that there is a 0.10 probability that a
parent will pass along the hitch hikers thumb
gene to their offspring.
What is the probability that a child will have a
hitch hikers thumb?
P(H+ from mom AND H+ from dad) =
0.1 0.1 = 0.01

Independent Mutually Exclusive

Mutually Exclusive events cannot be
independent! Well, why not?

Since we know that disjoint events have no

outcomes in common, knowing that one
occurred means the other didnt.
Thus, the probability of the second
occurring changed based on our knowledge
that the first occurred.
It follows, then, that the two events are
not independent.

Ex. For a certain population of employees, the

percentages passing and failing a job competency exam,
listed according to sex, were shown in the accompanying
table. That is, of all the people taking the exam, 24% were
in the male-pass category, 16% were in the male-fail
category, and so forth. An employee is to be selected
randomly from this population. Let A be the event that
the employee scores a passing grade on the exam and M
the event that a male is selected. Are events A and M
independent? How about A and F?

A and M are independent iff

60 40 24
P( A)P( M ) =
=
= P ( A M ) INDEPENDENT

100
100
100

A and F are independent iff P ( A' F ) = P( A')P(F )

40 60 24
P( A')P(F ) =
=
= P ( A F ) INDEPENDENT

100 100 100

Ex. Consider the network given below with three

switches. Suppose that the switches operate
independently of each other and that switch 1
allows a message through with probability 0.88,
switch 2 with a probability of 0.92, and switch 3
with a probability of 0.90. What is the probability
that a message gets through?
1

0.88

0.92

3
0.90

Ex. Divide and conquer. The top half of the

system works only if switch 1 and switch 2 works.
Since the switches are independent:

0.88

0.92

3
0.90

Ex. Our new system now looks like:

top

0.8096

3
0.90

Our reduced system will work if the top

works or if switch 3 works.

Ex. Relays used in the construction of electric

circuits function properly with probability 0.9.
Assuming that the circuits operate independently,
which of the following designs yields the higher
probability that current will flow when the relays
are activated.

System A: For components 1 and 2:

P(1 2) = P(1) +P(2) - P(1 2) = 0.9 + 0.9 - (0.9)( 0.9) =
0.99
For components 3 and 4:
P(3 4) = P(3) +P(4) - P(3 4) = 0.9 + 0.9 - (0.9)( 0.9)
= 0.99
P(1 2) P(3 4)= 0.99*0.99 = 0.9801

System B:
For components 1 and 3:
P(1 3) = P(1)*P(3) = 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81
For components 2 and 4: P(2 4) = P(2)*P(4) = 0.9 * 0.9 =
0.81
P(1 2) P(3 4)= 0.81 + 0.81 - 0.81*0.81 = 0.9639
Therefore, system A is more reliable.

Multiplication Rule for k

Independent Events
Events E1, E2, . . ., Ek are independent if
knowledge that some number of the
events have occurred does not change the
probabilities that any particular one or
more of the other events occurred.

This relationship remains valid if one or more of

the events are replaced by their complement
(not E).

Suppose that a desktop computer system consist of a

monitor, a mouse, a keyboard, the computer processor itself,
and storage devices such as a disk drive. Most computer
system problems due to manufacturer defects occur soon in
the systems lifetime. Purchasers of new computer systems
are advised to turn their computers on as soon as they are
purchased and then to let the computer run for a few hours
to see if any problems occur.
Let
E1 = event that a newly purchased monitor is not defective
E2 = event that a newly purchased mouse is not defective
E3 = event that a newly purchased disk drive is not defective
E4 = event that a newly purchased processor is not defective
Suppose the four events are independent with

P(E1) = P(E2) = .98

P(E3) = .94

P(E4) = .99

Let
E1 = event that a newly purchased monitor is not defective
E2 = event that a newly purchased mouse is not defective
E3 = event that a newly purchased disk drive is not defective
E4 = event that a newly purchased processor is not defective

Suppose the four events are independent with

P(E1) = P(E2) = .98 P(E3) = .94 P(E4) = .99
What is the probability that none of these
components are defective?

(.98)(.98)(.94)(.99) = .89

Let
E1 = event that a newly purchased monitor is not defective
E2 = event that a newly purchased mouse is not defective
E3 = event that a newly purchased disk drive is not defective
E4 = event that a newly purchased processor is not defective

Suppose the four events are independent with

P(E1) = P(E2) = .98 P(E3) = .94 P(E4) = .99
What is the probability that all these components
will run properly except the monitor?

(.02)(.98)(.94)(.99) = .018

Suppose I will pick two cards from a standard

deck. This can be done two ways:
1)Pick a card at random, replace the card, then
pick a second card
2) Pick a card at random, do NOT replace, then
pick a second card.
If I pick two cards from a standard deck
without replacement, what is the probability
that I select two spades?
Are the events E1 = first card is a spade and E2 =
second card is a spade independent? NO

P(E1 and E2) =

P(E1) P(E2|E1) =

Suppose the manufacturer of a certain

brand of light bulbs made 10,000 of
these bulbs and 500 are defective.
You randomly pick a package of two
such bulbs off the shelf of a store. What is the
probability that both bulbs are defective?
Are the events E1 = the first bulb is defective
and E2 = the second bulb is defective
independent?
What would be the probability of selecting a
defective light bulb? 500/10,000 = .05

Light Bulbs Continued . . .

What would be the probability of selecting a
defective light bulb?
500/10,000 = .05
Having selected one defective bulb, what is the
probability of selecting another without
replacement?
499/9999 = .0499
These values are so close to each other that
when rounded to three decimal places they are
both .050. For all practical purposes, we can
treat them as being independent.

Light Bulbs Continued . . .

If a would
random
of size n of
is taken
from
What
besample
the probability
selecting
aa
population
ofbulb?
size N, then the outcomes of
defective
light
selecting successive items from the population
500/10,000
= .05
without replacement
can
be treated as
independent when the sample size n is at most
Having selected one defective bulb, what is the
5% of the population size N.
probability of selecting another without
replacement?
499/9999 = .0499
These values are so close to each other that
when rounded to three decimal places they are
both .050. For all practical purposes, we can
treat them as being independent.

Light Bulbs Continued . . .

What is the probability that both
bulbs are defective?
Are the selections independent?
We can assume independence.

(0.05)(0.05) = .0025

AP* Tips
Saying two events are mutually exclusive and saying
two events are independent are different! Many
students confuse these two ideas, so be sure you
understand the difference.

6.5 Objectives:
" Understand the definition of
independence
" Understand the multiplication rule
for finding probabilities of
independent events
" Be able to find probabilities of
independent events when presented
with either a count or probability
information in a table, formula, or
verbal form.

6.5 Objectives:
" Integrate the concepts of
conditional probability and
independence to correctly analyze and
compute probabilities of and events
" Have a sense that while there is a
technical distinction between sampling
with and without replacement, with
samples where n < 0.05N the practical
outcome of the two sampling
strategies is rarely important

For Tonight:
HW: Read 6.5: Independence
P360: 6.43, 6.46, 6.47, 6.50, 6.51, 6.54,
6.55