2011 5 Vol. 14, No.

2, May 2011

http://cmr.ba.ouhk.edu.hk

_____________________________________

1.

2.

2.1
Fitzpatrick1932

1966 Beaver (1966)

(MDA)
( Logit Probit) Altman1968
ZETA-score Model
0~1
Moyer (1977)
Meyer & Pifer (1970) Ohlson (1980) Logit
Zmijewski (1984) Probit

(fuzzy logic) Zadeh 1965

Odom & Sharda (1990)

(ANN)

1980 Aharony et al.1980 Castagna

& Matolcsy1981
market modelchaos

2.2
2.2.1

2.2.2

2.3
1991 2 25 1994
1994

1997 8 2000 18
1999 40 3
5 8 38
2002

5 6
111
3 2000 5

--

2000
100 2003 10
16.9 2003 11
2003 12 26 17,685
16.18 19 46.31

12 18 2002 10 40
20

2003 2.25 2002

26
36 10.4

2004 6
6 15
(GDR)
1
1

19912
SCSIPROCOMP
1,6002,100
19937
LAN
1,4003,500
19946
MPEG TV Tuner
2,5006,000
19955 SMTDIP
MPEG

19968

-
19968

2,800
19974

-
19975
ISO9002
199712 4,95041,750

19981

19983 SMT
19985

19986

IECQ26
19988
5923
19989 SMT
OEM;
199810

19992
19993 SMT
19995 SMT

19995
111,600
19996
19997 ISO9001
19999

199910
199912

20004

20011 ISO14001

ECB
2003

20035,000 (16.5)

2
ECB2

B F
2

2 ECB

2.4
47

(GAAP)

(GAAP)

6963

3.
63

5
2004 56
1995
2
3
2

2003 2002 2001 2000 1999

56
49
48
42
53
226
316
251
166
142

3 ()

2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997

4,631,201 3,428,847 2,667,958 1,652,000 1,116,000 759,250
417,500

2004

4 ()

2003

134

125

-6.73

2002 2001 2000
343
244
152
285
211
130
1
3
5

1999
133
97
3

2004519
25619992003200
20022003602004

2.5-6.734

5
5

2003 2002 2001 2000 1999

1.89
1.90
3.01
4.62
4.79

193
192
121
79
76

5.30
5.31
6.97
7.89
7.01

68
69
52
46
52

0.83
1.14
1.35
1.25
2.23

0.23

0.33

0.44

0.55

1.01

2001

45 60
90 120 2002
192

10

30
Kopin20
6

2003 2002 2001 2000

2000 1999

( 18.12 )
2
9
10.40
10
11
(
42 )
2
11
13.72
7
18
(
53 )
19
46
21.41
58
40
(
79 )
4
34
15.81
46
28

(
87 )
2
12
13.17
11
8

( 10.43 ) 0.44
2.80
1.58
2.51
1.38

( 10.43 ) 0.44
2.80
1.58
2.51
1.38

2001 EPS 2002

0.44 1999 2003

2002 43 9
79 100
9 2002
7
7

2003

9

11

2002 2001 2000

1999

43

0.75

2.29

6.62

4.27

5.28

0.84

2.74

1.48

1.27

1.40

11

4.

(1)

(2)

(3)

()

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

4.1
(1)

(2)

(3)

12

)
(4)

(5)

()

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12) 2000 11 12
465 5.3
5 1
12.4292 3 7.52

4.2

13

() ()
() ()
()

1.
() (1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
2.
() (1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)

3.

4.

5.

(9)
(10)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.
12.

13.

14.

15.

(3)
(4)
(5)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(1)

14

(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)

4.3
(1)

15

(2)

(3)

5
1.
3

()
2. 1/4 (
)
4

3. 5

4.

16

5.

5.

()

17

5.1
1.

--

2.

3.

4.

47

5.

6.

69 64

5.2

18

5.3
1.

(1)

(2)

(3)
(4)

2.

(1) -
(2) -

3.

(1)

(2) -
A.B.
C.
(3) -

4.

(1)
(2) -

(3) -

19

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