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EMIS Insight - Indonesia Automotive Sector Report
EMIS Insight - Indonesia Automotive Sector Report
Sector
Indonesia
December 2013
Produced by:
-1-
Table of Contents
I. Sector Overview
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Sector Highlights
Economic Importance
Sector Forecast
CPI and Consumption
Employment and Wages
Market Population by Major Cities
Government Regulations and Tariffs
Investment Risks
-2-
I. Sector Overview
-3-
Sector Highlights
Economic situation
Indonesia is the largest economy in South East Asia and industry accounts for the largest share of the country's GDP (46.5% of total GDP). The
inflation rate from 2009 to June 2013 was stable ranging between 4.45% and 5.90%, but spiked to 8.1% in July 2013 mainly driven by rising food
and transportation prices, coinciding with peaking demand during the Ramadan. The government raised the subsidised fuel prices in June 2013,
with the price of premium fuel rising by 44% to IDR 6,500, while the price of diesel was increased by 22% to IDR 5,500. The Bank of Indonesia
projects that the inflation rate will return back to normal levels by Q1 2014, but meanwhile it has been steadily raising the base interest to curb it,
thus directly restricting the availability of cheap financing for car loans.
Production
The automotive sector is one of the most robust industries in Indonesia and the country ranks 15th in world in terms of auto sales. The industry has
enjoyed steady domestic sales growth averaging 15% since 2010 as is projected to continue to grow until the end of the decade. Manufacturers of
both vehicles and components are building new production facilities to meet the burgeoning local and regional demand. The hike in fuel prices did
not repel buyers, but re-directed them towards the low-cost green car (LCGC) segment. The tax incentives that the government provides to LCGC
producers not only make these cars more affordable but they also encourage producers to expand their output and possibly turn Indonesia into a
regional production hub due to low wages and the availability of cheap land.
Sales
Car penetration in Indonesia is estimated at 40 cars per thousand people in a country whose population tops 240 million. Indonesia has a young
demographic profile with 60.8% of the population aged below 35 years as of 2011. People aged 30-34 had the highest average gross income in Indonesia,
at IDR 38.7mn (USD 4,199) in 2011, compared to the national average gross income of IDR 31.5mn (USD 3,422). These factors overcome the negative
effects of inflation, rising interest rates and depreciating rupiah and underpins car sales. Japanese car brands generated over 90% of the sales in 2013 with
the top three car makers being Toyota and Daihatsu (both distributed by local conglomerate Astra) and Mitsubishi.
-4-
Economic Importance
Economic Importance
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
510.2
539.6
709.2
846.3
878.0
4,948,688.4
5,606,203.4
6,446,851.9
7,422,781.2
8,241,864.3
329,911.7
346,403.0
389,600.1
426,233.7
465,537.4
2,082,456.1
2,178,850.4
2,314,458.8
2,464,676.5
2,618,139.2
177,178.3
172,085.1
189,947.9
202,892.0
216,970.0
3.75
3.91
4.18
4.48
4.81
1,950.0
2,160.0
2,500.0
2,930.0
3,420.0
9.8
6.4
5.1
5.4
4.3
0.0
2.0
0.7
0.2
-2.8
9.318
4.877
13.771
19.241
19.853
-5-
Sector Forecast
Comments
Gaikindo forecast
1,116,230
764,710
607,805
486,061
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sales of vehicles
Exports of vehicles
Production (IDR bn)
1,207,833
2020
2013e
2014f
2025
1,945,307
2015f
2016f
2017f
3,132,936
1,208.51
1,946,318
3,134,454
179.96
289,827
466.77
130.451
210.093
338.357
925,283
1,008,559 1,104,372
1,207,078
926,743
1,019,418 1,121,359
1,222,282
2012
BMI forecast
2014f
Production of vehicles
1,300,000
894,164
Indomobil forecast
2015
1,226,199
-6-
8.03
8.753
9.628
10.687
7.938
8.652
9.517
10.564
135
130
125
120
115
110
15,789
15,282
25,581
17,953
21,406
494,845
13,833
430,065
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
703,561
12,847
353,421
386,370
633,269
-7-
# Of plants
Total workers
20
950
19,000
Authorized outlet
11,000
77,000
Non-authorized
outlet
33,000
231,500
Lvl 1 component
industries
150
280
42,000
Lvl 2 component
industries
350
32
11,000
Assembly
-8-
City population
9,607,787
2,765,487
2,394,873
2,334,871
Province population
9,607,787
37,476,757
43,053,732
2,630,401
Island
Java
Java East
Java West
Java
Area (sq.km.)
664.01
47,799.75
35,377.76
1,484.37
Medan
2,097,610
Tangerang
Depok
Semarang
1,798,601
1,738,570
1,555,984
12,982,204
1,798,601
1,738,570
32,382,657
Sumatera North
Java
Java
Java Central
72,981.23
184.00
200.29
32,800.69
Palembang
1,455,284
7,450,394
Sumatera South
91,592.43
Makassar
1,338,663
Bogor
950,334
46,717.48
950.334
Sulawesi South
Java
8,034,776
21.56
Padang
833,562
4,846,909
Sumatera West
42,012.89
Comments
The above information is based on a census conducted in May 2010. When assessing the potential market, making assumptions based on the city
population can be misleading as large segments of the population live outside of city limits, representing a lucrative market for automobiles.
Half of the Indonesian population is under 30 years of age. Government projections show an increase in per capita income of USD 10,000 by 2020.
-9-
Import duty
CKD
IKD
Sedan
4x2 type
4x4 type
Bus
Pick up/
Truck
Double cabin
4x2 / 4x4
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
0
0
7.5
0
0
Luxury
tax
2011
CC<1.500(G/D)
1.501 < CC <3.000 (G)/2.500 (D)
CC > 3.001 (G)/2.500 (D)
CC<1,500(G/D)
1.501 < CC <2.500 (G/D)
2.501 < CC <3.000 (G)
CC > 3.001 (G)/2.500 (D)
CC<1.500(G/D)
1.501 < CC <3.000 (G)/2.500 (D)
CC > 3.001 (G)/2.500 (D)
GVW 5 - 24 Ton (G/D)
GVW > 24Ton (G/D)
GVW < 5 Ton (G/D)
GVW 5 - 24 Ton (G/D)
GVW > 24Ton (G/D)
50
50
50
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
40
10
45
40
10
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
10
40
40
10
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
5
15
15
5
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
5
10
10
5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
0
0
7.5
0
0
30
40
75
10
20
40
75
30
40
75
10
10
0
0
0
45
40
15
10 7.5 7.5
20
- 10 -
Investment Risks
Political Risks
In July 2013, Bank Indonesia raised interest rates to 6.5% and set the
overnight deposit facility rate (FASBI) at 4.75%. In July, the inflation
rate spiked from 5.9% to 8.1% and the bank took aggressive measures
to reduce the inflation rate.
In 2013, the minimum wage was increased between 19.1% and 48.86%
depending on the region, with the sharpest hikes registered in Jakarta
and East Kalimantan. The local unions are lobbying for a 20% increase
in 2014, a demand which may be granted considering the election year.
Inflation
Rising Labor
Costs
- 11 -
- 12 -
Importance
The automotive sector is one of the most robust industries in Indonesia. The industry has enjoyed steady domestic sales
growth averaging 15% since 2010 as is projected to continue to grow until the end of the decade. Manufacturers of both
vehicles and components are building new production facilities to meet the burgeoning local and regional demand. The hike in
fuel prices did not repel buyers, but re-directed them towards the LCGC segment. However, industry growth is affected by the
increase of the base interest rate that makes car loans less attractive.
Annual car sales will double to 2 million units by 2018 and that the proportion of exports will rise from about 10% of total
production at the moment to 20-30% in 2018, according to a projection of Budi Darmadi, a senior industry ministry official.
LCGC to
drive market
upwards
The introduction of the low cost green cars (LCGC) in September 2013 is the most significant new development in Indonesia's
automotive industry in terms of both production and sales. The tax incentives that the government provides to LCGC producers
not only makes these cars more affordable but also encourages producers to expand their output.
New
investments
and jobs
The government support for the LCGC subsector is expected to lure new investments and provide new jobs. According to
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Hatta Rajasa, the initiative has attracted USD 3bn in the automotive industry and
another USD 3.5bn in the production of auto components. This expansion will also create 70,000 jobs some 30,000 in
manufacturing and 40,000 in sales, marketing, autoshops and other related subsectors. The market structure will not change
dramatically, as the market leaders Toyota and Daihatsu have already started manufacturing LCGC models prior to the launch
of the initiative, noted LMC Automotive analyst Ammar Master.
- 13 -
Sedan
4X2 type
4X4 type
Bus
Pick up/Truck
CC<1,500(G/D)
1,501 < CC <3,000 (G)/2,500 (D)
CC > 3,001 (G)/2,500 (D)
Subtotal
CC<1,500(G/D)
1,501 < CC <2,500 (G/D)
2,501 < CC <3,000 (G)
CC > 3,001 (G)/2,500 (D)
Subtotal
CC<1,500(G/D)
1,501 < CC <3,000 (G)/2,500 (D)
CC > 3,001 (G)/2,500 (D)
Subtotal
GVW 5 - 10 Ton (G/D)
GVW 10 - 24 Ton (G/D)
GVW > 24 Ton (G/D)
Subtotal
GVW < 5 Ton (G/D)
GVW 5 - 10 Ton (G/D)
GVW 10 - 24Ton (G/D)
GVW > 24Ton (G/D)
Subtotal
CC1,200 (G)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2,681
2,991
251
5,923
285,125
106,937
23,935
415,997
5,236
4,267
9,503
1,788
1,168
2,956
84,917
66,120
5,162
10,050
166,249
77
2,084
206
2,367
264,447
71,600
10,193
346,245
2,978
582
3,560
1,038
1,290
2,328
54,550
45,487
4,432
5,874
110,316
3,900
181
4,081
358,838
100,491
17,923
477,252
13,029
2,162
15,191
2,076
2,030
4,106
101,648
80,809
6,608
12,813
201,878
208
2,863
160
3,231
418,118
91,601
21,043
530,762
23,389
4,481
27,870
2,431
1,711
4,142
151,421
97,471
8,208
14,843
271,943
673
4,076
120
4,869
541,694
114,982
36,745
693,421
37,414
7,797
45,211
3,061
2,238
5,299
169,747
113,200
12,675
21,135
316,757
CC1,500 (D)
Subtotal
Total
600,628
464,816
Source: Gaikindo
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.
Copyright 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
- 14 -
702,508
873,948
1,065,557
Jan-Nov
2013
Share in
2012 (%)
367
3,930
90
4,387
626,613
132,380
27,327
786,320
15,077
8,248
23,325
2,269
2,063
4,332
131,170
99,722
8,970
17,870
257,732
37,459
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
0.5%
50.8%
10.8%
3.4%
0.0%
65.1%
0.0%
3.5%
0.7%
4.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.5%
15.9%
10.6%
1.2%
2.0%
29.7%
-
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.4%
56.3%
11.9%
2.5%
0.0%
70.6%
0.0%
1.4%
0.7%
2.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
11.8%
9.0%
0.8%
1.6%
23.1%
3.3%
0.0%
37,459
1,113,555
3.3%
Vehicle production
Jan-Oct 2013
Indonesia
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
Malaysia
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
Philippines
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
Thailand
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
Vietnam
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
Total
2012
Motor vehicles
1,001,682
1,065,557
494,417
569,620
66,566
75,413
2,115,375
2,453,717
73,653
73,673
3,751,693
4,237,980
Passenger
Commercial
743,501
322,056
509,621
59,999
26,340
49,073
957,623
1,496,094
41,488
32,185
2,278,573
1,959,407
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
7,079,721
6,539,594
Malaysia
543,088
463,452
Philippines
588,292
610,985
2,606,161
1,910,287
10,817,262
9,524,318
Indonesia
Thailand
Total
7,395,390
6,264,265
2008
7,079,721
5,884,021
2009
2010
2011
Source: ASEAN
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.
Copyright 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
- 15 -
2012
6,539,594
Jan-Oct 2013
Sales
potential
Indonesia has a young demographic profile with 60.8% of the population aged below 35 years as of 2011. People aged 30-34
had the highest average gross income in Indonesia, IDR 38.7mn (USD 4,199) in 2011, compared to the national average gross
income of IDR 31.5mn (USD 3,422). High earners in this age group will likely buy their first cars.
In 2012, Indonesia's central bank tried to limit the growth of car sales by introducing a new rule that raised the required
minimum down payment for the purchase of automobiles from 10% to 25% of the price for commercial cars, and to 30% for
passenger cars. This move slowed down car sales as around 65% of car purchases in Indonesia are made with the help of
loans.
Astra
dominance
Japanese car brands accounted for over 90% of the sales in 2013. Toyota Motor Corp. dominates both in terms of numbers
and as market presence among car dealerships. Currently, together with Daihatsu, it runs 450 dealers and has a 54% share of
the market. Another major global player, General Motors, has only 34 dealers and a 0.7% market share on the Indonesian
market. Toyota and Daihatsu vehicles are sold by joint ventures between Indonesian conglomerate PT Astra International and
the two Japanese car makers. Mitsubishi, the country's third most popular car brand, is distributed by Krama Yudha Tiga
Berlian Motors.
LCGC impact
The affordable price cap on LCGC cars is allowing a growing number of Indonesians to become car owners. Although analysts
are optimistic that Indonesia's middle class will expand, its growth is currently hampered by high inflation, rise in subsidised fuel
prices, depreciating local currency and soaring prices of imported goods. The sector is now underpinned by the sales of the six
available LCGC car models and their number will increase to nine in 2014.
- 16 -
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
18,753
11,779
18,355
14,236
18,998
Jan-Nov
2013
18,387
15,284
10,068
14,080
11,013
14,754
14,027
1.3%
1.2%
263
34,300
279,051
105,822
2,702
1,215
388,790
-
253
22,100
257,507
74,652
2,214
680
335,053
-
693
33,128
389,712
111,874
2,801
123
504,510
-
492
25,741
452,669
113,252
3,478
369
569,768
-
469
34,221
583,107
152,282
3,130
649
739,168
-
350
32,764
593,269
138,400
2,230
332
734,231
-
0.0%
3.1%
52.2%
13.6%
0.3%
0.1%
66.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
52.4%
12.2%
0.2%
0.0%
64.9%
0.0%
1,707
1,653
3,070
3,847
5,653
4,482
0.5%
0.4%
470
2,177
1,651
1,210
2,861
80,099
66,258
5,302
10,088
161,747
13,899
561
2,214
1,167
1,302
2,469
55,373
45,760
4,582
6,028
111,743
9,969
767
3,837
2,058
2,119
4,177
104,263
80,933
6,632
12,826
204,654
14,404
1,674
5,521
2,468
1,385
3,853
150,254
96,434
7,890
15,627
270,205
17,815
1,743
7,396
2,191
2,281
4,472
168,354
109,733
12,756
20,766
311,609
19,364
0.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.4%
15.1%
9.8%
1.1%
1.9%
27.9%
1.7%
0.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
15.3%
8.9%
0.8%
1.6%
26.7%
1.5%
3.3%
0.0%
3.3%
603,774
483,548
764,710
894,164
1,116,230
1,436
5,918
1,511
2,000
3,511
173,240
101,243
9,139
18,393
302,015
16,819
36,916
36,916
1,132,174
Source: Gaikindo
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.
Copyright 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
- 17 -
share in
share in Jan2012 (%)
Nov 2013 (%)
1.7%
1.6%
Vehicle sales
Brunei
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Vietnam
Total
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
2012
Motor vehicles
15,694
18,634
1,020,389
1,116,212
543,048
627,753
148,181
156,654
27,954
37,247
1,123,268
1,436,335
77,723
80,453
2,956,257
3,473,288
Passenger
Commercial
2012
Jan-Oct 2013
7,141,586
6,530,079
Malaysia
537,753
460,766
108,326
Philippines
702,599
608,199
32,724
4,523
Singapore
9,923
9,634
694,234
742,101
2,130,067
1,738,996
43,692
36,761
10,521,928
9,347,674
2,169,788
1,303,500
17,854
780
780,767
335,445
552,189
75,564
48,328
Indonesia
Thailand
Total
7,398,644
6,280,799
2008
7,141,586
5,881,777
2009
2010
2011
Source: ASEAN
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.
Copyright 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
- 18 -
2012
6,530,079
Jan-Oct 2013
Foreign Trade
Exports CBU, units
103,710
155,711
100,122
97,615
2012
Jan-Nov
2013
83,709
107,932
100,982
85,796
53,140
55,624
2009
2010
56,669
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Jan-Nov
2013
2008
2011
55,504,758
146,765
48,170,428
125,873
72,646
232,648
353,950
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Jan-Nov
2013
2008
Source: Gaikindo
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.
Copyright 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
76,173
2010
2011
32,678
12,081,911
311,066
76,520
- 19 -
2009
2012
Jan-Nov
2013
Toyota
Suzuki
94,569
126,577
148,967
Mitsubishi
134,416
148,918
145,371
Honda
45,416
69,320
86,817
Nissan
56,137
67,143
56,341
4,088,888
Kawasaki
TVS
Kanzen
188
333
264
Jan-Nov 2013
493,095
418,940
95,108
123,431
13,994
9,344
382
n/a
2011
2,423,854
Suzuki
3,045
2,925
1,809
2012
3,136,073
Yamaha
28,746
33,165
29,016
Isuzu
2011
4,273,888
Honda
80,967
99,081
92,324
Others
Peugeot
406,026
400,026
139,544
162,742
171,195
Daihatsu
UD Trucks
- 20 -
2012
- 21 -
Operating in
Indonesia
The auto industry in Indonesia is dominated by large conglomerates that produce: CBUs (Completely Built Units), CKDs (Completely
Knocked Down Kits) and components/parts. These combines own or joint venture: assembly plants, parts manufacturers, logistic
companies, dealerships, car rental agencies and financing facilities for end-users. Japanese companies have been doing business in
Indonesia for decades and understand the complexities on the ground and it is no surprise that they hold around 90% of the domestic
car and truck sales in Indonesia.
ASTRA
PT Astra International Tbk is the largest and oldest auto conglomerate in Indonesia and accounts for 50-53% of all auto sales in the
country. Astra holds the exclusive distribution rights to Toyota (Indonesia's largest selling brand), Peugeot, Daihatsu, BMW, Isuzu, and
Nissan Diesel as well as the exclusive manufacturing and distribution rights for Honda motorcycles. The company is controlled by
Singapore-listed Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd.
Indombil
PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk is the second largest automotive retailer in the country behind Astra. Its primary business
includes vehicle sales distribution, after-sales service and vehicle-ownership financing. In December 2012, Singapore-based
investment holding company Gallant Venture Ltd. bought a 52% stake in Indomobil Sukses for USD 809.3mn to tap growth in
Southeast Asia's largest economy.
- 22 -
Highlights
PT Astra International Tbk is the largest and oldest
automotive conglomerate in Indonesia. The company
was established in 1957 as a garage-based trading
company in Jakarta. After 55 years in operation, Astra
has developed into one of the largest national
companies which is supported by 185,580 employees
in 170 companies, including subsidiaries, associates,
and jointly controlled entities.
188,053
162,564
129,991
2008
2009
2010
Revenues
2011
22,460
14,366
21,348
98,526
10,040
9,191
97,064
2012
Net Profit
- 23 -
Highlights
PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk is an
integrated automotive business group, implementing a
one-stop service concept with a number of
subsidiaries being in the forefront of the Indonesian
automotive industry. The company was established in
1976 as PT Indomobil Investment Corporation and
in1997 merged with PT Indomulti Inti Industri Tbk and
changed its name to PT Indomobil Sukses
Internasional Tbk.
The primary business line of the Indomobil and its
subsidiaries encompass brand holding sole agent,
vehicle sales distribution, after sales service, vehicle
ownership financing, spare part distribution under
IndoParts brand, vehicle assembly, automotive
parts/component manufacturing, car rental services,
and other related supporting services.
The company manages well-known brands of
international reputation, namely: Audi, Foton, Hino,
Kalmar, Mack Trucks, Manitou, Nissan, Renault,
Renault Trucks, Suzuki, Volkswagen, Volvo
Construction Equipment and Volvo Trucks.
On 7 June 2012, the Indomobil executed a stock split;
splitting the nominal value from IDR 500.00 per share
became IDR 250.00 per share. Stock split ratio was
1:2.
19,781
15,775
10,935
8,197
2008
2009
2010
Revenues
2011
885
1,066
537
11
23
6,940
2012
Net Profit
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Contact:
Corporate Headquarters
Nestor House
Playhouse Yard
London EC4V 5EX
UK
Voice: +44 207 779 8471
Fax: +44 207 779 8224
Asia Headquarters
Eucharistic Congress Bldg. No.
III
4th Floor, 5 Convent Street
Mumbai 400 001
India
Voice: +91 22 22881123
Fax: +91 22 22881137
Americas Headquarters
225 Park Avenue South
New York, New York 10003
US
Voice: +1 212 610 2900
Fax: +1 212 610 2950
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of the information. The views expressed are our best judgment as of the date of issue and are subject to change without notice. EMIS and Euromoney Institutional
Investor PLC take no responsibility for decisions made on the basis of these opinions.
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. A Euromoney Institutional Investor company.
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and profiles of the leading sector companies provided by locally-based analysts.
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