General Election 2010 - Update

An Edelman Analysis
For more Edelman general election analysis visit: http://elections.edelman.com

Edelman presents the final results of the election, with analysis of the day’s
developments. There is one outstanding result with the Thirsk & Malton
Constituency going to the polls on 27 May. We have assumed a Conservative hold.
Hung Parliament
2005 Election 2010 Election
Turnout up to 65%
5% Swing from Labour to Conservative
Conservatives largest party

356 258 Lib Dems fail to turn support into votes

Clegg gives Cameron first go at forming
government
Brown vows carry on, but pledges
electoral reform to woo Lib Dems
Cameron makes ‘offer’ to Lib Dems and
negotiations have begun
Party No Net
Seats Change
198 307 Conservative 307 +99
Labour 258 -91
Liberal Democrats 57 -5

62 57 Democratic Unionist Party 8 -1

30 30 Scottish National Party 6 0

Share of Vote Sinn Fein 5 0
Plaid Cymru 3 +1
12% Conservative
Social Democratic &
36% Labour 3 0
Labour Party
23%
Liberal Democrat Green 1 +1
Other Other 2 0
29%
Undeclared 2 n/a
 General Election 2010 - Update
An Edelman Analysis
For more Edelman general election analysis visit: http://elections.edelman.com

Today’s Developments
As we knew this morning, the result of the election is a Hung Parliament, meaning no one party has secured
the 326 seats required to form a majority government. So, the day has seen early political manoeuvring from
the three main parties (as well as some of the minor ones), as each leader seeks to gain a foothold in the
future government.

Below is a short note which summarises the story so far in the battle to form a Government:

Lib Dems Offer the Conservatives First Chance to Make them an Offer

At 10.30am, Nick Clegg gave a press conference, in which he conceded it had been a disappointing night for
the Liberal Democrats. He explained that as the Conservatives had won the most seats and most votes, they
should be given the first opportunity to demonstrate they can command a majority in the House of Commons.
In practice, this amounted to offering the Conservatives first go at “making an offer” to the Lib Dems to secure
their support, whilst making it clear that he would talk to other parties if an agreement could not be found.

Gordon Brown Vows to Carry On but Concedes Tories and Lib Dems Need to Talk First

Following Clegg’s statement, Gordon Brown gave a press conference outside Number 10, in which he pledged
to continue as Prime Minister in the meantime whilst the present situation is sorted out. He conceded that
Clegg and Cameron should speak first to see if they can come to an arrangement, but clearly held out the olive
branch of electoral reform to the Lib Dems if they wanted to deal with Labour instead.

Cameron Makes his Offer to Clegg

David Cameron followed this up with a speech setting out his ‘offer’ to the Liberal Democrats which
highlighted the level of overlap in policy terms on issues like education, national insurance and political
reform. He stopped a long way short, however, of making any meaningful commitments on electoral reform
and it is on this issue that any putative partnership will stand or fall. Subsequently, it has emerged that David
Cameron and Nick Clegg plan to speak by telephone this evening to discuss this offer in more detail.

Next Steps

The weekend is likely to dominated by the Conservative/Lib Dem talks which will determine whether the two
parties can work together and the Lib Dems can support a Tory Government. The negotiations are likely to
centre on the question of electoral reform and whether some compromise can be reached on this critical
issue. The Conservatives are keen to get a deal done over the weekend, to reassure the markets and put
Cameron in No 10 early next week. However, if agreement cannot be reached, it is to be assumed the Lib
Dems will then commence discussions with Labour to establish whether an agreement with the present
Government might be more achievable. It is quite conceivable that these discussions may last many days and
it may be well into next week until the outcome becomes clearer. In the meantime, Labour remain in office
and Gordon Brown remains the Prime Minister.