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Chapter 12 Inference About A Population: QMDS 202 Data Analysis and Modeling
Chapter 12 Inference About A Population: QMDS 202 Data Analysis and Modeling
2
i
is called the
i 1
n2
distribution:
Since values are obtained by using squared numbers, all 2 values are zero or
positive a property that is not found with the z distribution. Thus, the scale of
possible 2 values extends from zero indefinitely to the right in a positive
direction.
A 2 distribution is not symmetrical like the z distribution.
There is a different 2 distribution for a different degree of freedom. If we change
the value of n, there is a different df (degrees of freedom), and so the shape of
each distribution of interest to us now depends on the value of n.
( n 1) s 2
dividing (n1) times the sample variance s 2 (a random variable) by the population
variance follows a chi-squared distribution. While the full proof of this proposition is
difficult, you might note that if X1, X2, , Xn are all normally distributed, then
2
Xi
i 1
2
i
n2
i 1
Then, we have
n
Xi X
i 1
( n 1) s 2
n21
Note. Replacing with X will reduce the degrees of freedom for the chi-squared
distribution to n 1.
The t Distribution
Consider two independent random variables A and B. Suppose that A follows a
standard normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a variance of 1. That is, A N(0,1).
Suppose B follows a chi-squared distribution with v degrees of freedom. That is, B
v2 . Then, if we form a new random variable
A
B
v
this random variable follows the t distribution with v degrees of freedom. That is,
A
B tv
v
X
N(0,1)
/ n
This new random variable is not standard normal but rather follows the t distribution
with n 1 degrees of freedom. That is,
X
s/
t n 1
/ n
( n 1) s 2
(n 1) 2
t n 1
N n
N 1
s
n
s
n
Over 14 days, there is a total of 154 minor traffic accidents with a daily
standard deviation of 4. Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean
daily number of accidents.
Solution:
n = 14
x = 154
s=4
x 154
11
n
14
1.069
( is unknown)
n
14
Assume the population is normally distributed X is normal.
= 1 0.95 = 0.05
v = degrees of freedom = n 1 = 14 1 = 13 t / 2 t 0.025 2.16
The 95% c.i. of the population mean is:
x t / 2 x x t / 2 x
Example 2
A machine has been producing rods cut off at 10.5 inches. The
machine is considered out of control if the rods cut by it are either too
long or too short. A random sample of 10 items shows a mean of 10.82
inches with a standard deviation of 0.25 inches. Is the machine out of
control? Test the hypothesis at 0.01 significance level.
Solution:
H0: = 10.5
H1: 10.5
= 0.01
n = 10 < 30 and unknown
Assume the population is normally distributed X is normal.
t-distribution will be used as the testing distribution.
TS
x 0
x 0 10.82 10.5
4.05
x
s/ n
0.25 / 10
2 / 2
12 / 2
where 2 / 2 and 12 / 2 are scores obtained from a Chi-square ( 2 ) distribution
with n 1 degrees of freedom.
The corresponding confidence interval of can be found by:
( n 1) s 2
2 / 2
( n 1) s 2
12 / 2
Example 3
Solution:
(a)
n = 15
s2 = 0.008
Assume that the population is normal.
= 1 0.95 = 0.05
df = n 1 = 15 1 = 14
2 / 2 = 02.025 = 26.1
12 / 2 = 02.975 = 5.63
The 95% c.i. of the population variance is:
( n 1) s 2
( n 1) s 2
2
2 / 2
12 / 2
14 0.008
14 0.008
2
26.1
5.63
2
0.0043 0.0199 (ans.)
(b)
0.0199
Example 4
H0: 0.0125
(0 = the claimed value of stated in H0 = 0.0125)
H1: > 0.0125
= 0.05
Assume the population is normal 2-distribution will be used as the testing
distribution
v = degrees of freedom = n 1 = 20 1 = 19
TS
( n 1) s 2
02
( 20 1)(0.019) 2
(0.0125) 2
43.9
If H0: 0
H1: < 0
then reject H0 if TS < 12
If H0: = 0
H1: 0
then reject H0 if TS < 12 / 2 or TS > 2 / 2
where p
p
p 1 p
n
N n
for finite population
N 1
p 1 p
for infinite population
n
Example 5
Solution:
n = 200
90
0.45
200
p 1 p
is approximately normally
p
0.45 0.55
0.035
200
Example 6
The manager of a firm has advertised that 90% of the firms customers
are satisfied with the companys services. A customer activist feels that
this is an exaggerated statement that might require legal action. In a
random sample of 150 of the companys clients, 132 said they were
satisfied. What should be concluded if a test is conducted at the 0.05
level of significance?
Solution:
H0: p 0.9
H1: p < 0.9
= 0.05
n
=
150
>
30,
and
TS
p p 0
p 0 (1 p 0 )
n
0.88 0.9
0 .9 0 .1
150
0 .8
a.
= 1 0.99 = 0.01
p 0.05
Required: p
0.05
The interval estimate of p is to be of the form: p
(W = Margin of error = the quantity following the sign)
From sampling concept, we know p p z / 2 p
Set z / 2 p W z / 2
p (1 p )
z
W n /2
n
W
p (1 p )
2.575
0.05
b.
2.575
p (1 p )
0.05
= 0.5 if there is no estimate can be taken from previous study.
Set p
n
2.575
0.05
Review Problems: 12.12, 12.19, 12.24, 12.26, 12.56, 12.60, 12.62, 12.70, 12.72,
12.74, 12.75, 12.82.