GAME OF DRONES

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GAME OF DRONES

1.1 Introduction
For a number of years, the term drones to many people
referred to an UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), ie an
aircraft with no human pilot aboard, being used by the
armed forces for either covert surveillance or to undertake
combat operations in major conflicts and war-torn areas of
the globe.
These military UAV sorties are either autonomous, guided
by GPS, or are under the control of a user, potentially
hundreds of miles away, using onboard cameras for
guidance.

significant risks and is hindered by rigorous regulation. Indeed, the regulatory environment
currently plays a crucial role in adoption where the rules of operating a UAV vary widely from
country to country in terms of their severity.

1.2 Drone Classification

Generally, UAVs are either:

Fixed-wing, similar in design to an airplane, or;

Based on a system of rotors, which are more akin to the workings of a helicopter.

Figure 1: Drone Diversity

While the military still accounts for a significant part of the

drone market, there is now a growing desire to utilise the
technology in commercial and consumer applications, ie
non-military or civilian.
Indeed, a growing ecosystem of drone software and
hardware vendors is already providing applications to
clients in a number of industry sectors, notably agriculture,
public services, land management, energy and
construction.
With the increasing amounts of money from venture
capitalists being ploughed into drone start-ups worldwide,
there is undoubted promise for the technology being used
successfully in civilian applications, but its potential carries

Source: Wall Street Journal

GAME OF DRONES

The market for civilian drones can be split into 2 main

types:

Retail/consumer mainly bought by consumers for

leisure and recreational pursuits;

Commercial/professional acquired by professionals

and companies to serve and meet the requirements of
their particular industry needs.

The types on offer range from those that are more akin to a toy through to those with
high-spec components, which are aimed at the prosumer and professional.
Indeed, at the high end it is difficult to determine where the consumer target market ends and
those aimed at the commercial sector start.

Figure 2: Consumer Drone Comparison

The market is completed by a third sector, military drones,

which are outside this analysis.
There is a distinct level of delineation between these types
of UAV used in these sectors, mainly through size and
price, which is shown below.

1.2.1 Sector Focus: Consumer Drones

In the consumer category, UAVs are mainly the preserve
of the hobbyist for recreational purposes, allied to a
burgeoning market for DIY modellers.
The addition of an on-board camera also opens
opportunities for a number of applications pertinent to
todays YouTube generation.
Consumer drones are most likely to be of the multicopter type and can be purchased through a variety of
retail outlets for as little as 30 ($45).

Source: Juniper Research/Amazon.co.uk

GAME OF DRONES

1.3 Key Consumer Applications

The consumer sector has long been associated with devices akin to UAVs,
namely radio controlled vehicles and model aircraft, ranging from
childrens toys to those aimed at, and built by, serious hobbyists,
enthusiasts and DIYers alike covering a full spectrum of consumers.
While todays UAVs offer certain technical enhancements over radio
controlled vehicles that brings them more into line with computers and
smartphones, there are a number of similarities that exist between the 2
categories, namely that they are still used for purely recreational and
entertainment purposes while also being a target for the keen hobbyist.

UAVs now allow much more with the addition of a camera

The ease with which consumers are able to acquire a UAV, though, could
spark any number of problems.

While drones, in their nascent development, are mainly acquired by

hobbyists for recreational purposes, there could be other demand
drivers, potentially nefarious, at play. Indeed, there have already been
some incidences worldwide of unsavoury, invasive and questionable
uses of drones by members of the general public.

While a number of cases have involved users being caught flying UAVs
near restricted areas, such as close to an airport or over a sports
stadium, some of the more insalubrious cases include carrying illegal
drugs across borders and smuggling deliveries into prisons, where the
drone has carried guns and various types of contraband.

Other more serious use cases have fortunately not yet happened, but
could include among acts of terrorism. This is becoming a major concern
for the public and hence governments are issuing stringent regulations
about their use.

It is also in the hands of those in the bona fide UAV consumer

community to help educate the public and temper these fears to keep
their hobby out of the headlines.

and the interaction with smartphones and tablets which, in

turn, opens up a whole new world of applications and
games for the consumer.

The release of Software Development Kits by the major drone

manufacturers also allows consumers and start-ups to create applications
and provide innovation in the sector.
Moreover, the barriers to entry for consumers are low in most developed
markets as off-the-shelf UAVs are easy to acquire, mainly through online
retail stores, with retail prices starting as low as $30 with camera.

This is a massive problem for the industry as it struggles to strike a

balance between regulating the use of consumer drones to ensure public
safety and privacy, while encouraging growth in the sector.
To combat any use of a UAV that impinges on public safety, the issue is
how they are to be best policed and monitored in the consumer market, as

GAME OF DRONES

it is not as easily regulated and purchases are not tracked with the same
rigour as those in the commercial sector.
Indeed, some consumers have taken it upon themselves to act as
vigilantes, with cases of UAVs being shot down.
Aside from simple recreational use, there are 2 main UAV use cases for
the consumer segment where enhancements and business opportunities
are being explored:

Photography and video footage;

Applications and enhanced games.

the FAAs Know Before You Fly promotion in the US;

the CAAs You have control poster in the UK; and

Flying an Unmanned Aircraft? educational directive from Canada

Transport.

Figure 3: You have control Safety Campaign

These examples are mainly based around the use of the smartphone and
tablet as the point of interaction with the UAV, which offer a window to a
host of online social media sites and application stores.

1.3.1 Private & Recreational Legislation

UAVs used only for hobby or recreational purposes are expected to follow
a set of safety guidelines in order not to endanger any member of the
public or any other object.
While these parameters can differ slightly from country to country, they
form the basis of most regulation and do not often require any permissions
or approvals for operation.
Many countries have implemented campaigns to educate the public about
using UAVs safely and responsibly so that these operational limitation
guidelines are adhered to, such as:

Source: CAA, UK

1.4 Consumer Drones: Forecast Summary

Juniper estimated that the vast majority of drones sold in 2014 were for the
consumer/prosumer sector, owing to the current availability of these types
of drones in the market from analysis of the largest vendors portfolios.
In general, products from the major vendors are targeted at consumers
but, as mentioned, it is difficult to determine their ultimate use as many are

GAME OF DRONES

well equipped enough to be used in a commercial environment, are of a

relatively high price and packed with requisite technology.

Figure 4: Total Consumer Drones Volume Sales (m), Split by 8

Key Regions 2020: 16.3 million

Juniper Research forecasts that over time, sales of

consumer drones will increase as the market expands to
16.3 million by 2020.

This will mainly be driven by:

Improvements in technology;

Increasing numbers of innovative applications;

Reductions in retail price, both through natural economies of scale, and

the introduction of standardised chipset platforms; and

Increased competition.

North America

Latin America

West Europe

Central & East Europe

Far East & China

Indian Subcontinent

Rest of Asia Pacific

Africa & Middle East

Source: Juniper Research

GAME OF DRONES

Order the Full Research

Market Trends & Competitive Landscape - strategic analysis of key

trends in the consumer and commercial drones space, together with
drone vendor capability assessment and matrix (PDF).

Market Sizing & Forecasts 5 year forecasts for drone shipments,

installed base and cost saving/revenue opportunities, split by
commercial and consumer markets (PDF).

Interactive Forecast Excel Highly granular dataset comprising nearly

3,700 data points, allied to an Interactive Scenario tool giving user the
ability to manipulate Junipers data (Interactive XL).

Drones: Consumer & Commercial Applications, Regulations &

Opportunities 2015-2020
This new study from Juniper Research provides an exhaustive
assessment of the burgeoning market for civilian UAVs (Unmanned Aerial
Vehicles), offering complete coverage of both the commercial and
consumer sectors. With an in-depth analysis of the latest trends,
developments and opportunities in the space, this research provides an
essential guide for industry stakeholders.
Key Features

Publications Details

Industry value chain and supply chain analysis.

Publication date: November 2015

Market challenge assessment.

Authors: Windsor Holden & Dave McQueen

Macro-environmental analysis including social, regulatory and

technological factors.

Contact Jon King, Business Development Manager, for more information:

Jon.King@juniperresearch.com

Market forecasts for consumer and commercial drones, including

shipments and installed base by price band, use case, region and
selected national markets; hardware revenues; revenues/cost savings
delivered by commercial drones, by use case and region.

Juniper Research Ltd, Church Cottage House, Church Square,

Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 7QW UK
Tel: UK: +44 (0)1256 830001/475656 USA: +1 408 716 5483
(International answering service) Fax: +44(0)1256 830093

Whats in this Research?

http://www.juniperresearch.com

Executive Summary - Slide set summarising key trends, competitive

analysis and market forecasts, allied to a series of strategic
recommendations for players across the value chain (PPT).