Marketing Intelligence: Consumer Connectivity

Marketing Intelligence
Consumer Connectivity
Yaffe Center Workshop on Digital Marketing
Thursday, November 29, 12
work
Tom Thomas
ed
find
ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2
ORGANIC.COM
work
Tom Thomas
2
19 years of Digital Marketing, Mobile, and

Management Consulting
Executive Director, Marketing Intelligence
Organic, Inc (2 years)
ed
BS Computer Information Systems, Indiana University

MBA, Ross School of Business, University of Michigan
find
tthomas@organic.com
Twitter.com/tomthomasMI
ORGANIC.COM
CONTENTS
About Organic
Advanced Analytics
Consumer Connectivity
3
Founded in 1993, The Original Digital Agency.
With A History of
Firsts
We
Specialize In
Created the original Yahoo logo
Experience Design
Hosted the development of the Apache Server
Campaign
Designed original banner ad on Hotwired(Sorry)
Development
Created the first US WAP Site
Web Development
The first mobile marketing campaign for Sprint
Analytics and
Created the first youtube channel for Paris Hilton
Optimization
Launched the first social media campaign on Myspace for Xmen
Emerging Platforms
Launched predictive modeling in digital marketing for Chrysler

The most successful CPG launch for UbyKotex
Created one of the first iAds on the iPad for Bank Of America
Launched Broadfeed one of the first social media readers
ORGANIC.COM
Current Clients
Automotive
CPG
Retail
Finance
Travel
Technology
& Telecom
Media
& Entertainment
Industry
Non Profit
6
ORGANIC.COM
Our Mission...
Be Accurate
Be Unique
Be Strategic
7
ORGANIC.COM
Who We Are
Our Services
Site/Tablet/Mobile
Measurement
Advanced
Analytics
Digital Ecosystems
8
CRM
ORGANIC.COM
Who We Are
Our Services
Site/Tablet/Mobile
Measurement
Advanced
Analytics
Digital Ecosystems
8
CRM
ORGANIC.COM
Who We Are
Our Services
Site/Tablet/Mobile
Measurement
Advanced
Analytics
Digital Ecosystems
8
CRM
ORGANIC.COM
Who We Are
Our Services
Site/Tablet/Mobile
Measurement
Advanced
Analytics
Digital Ecosystems
8
CRM
ORGANIC.COM
ADVANCED
ANALYTICS
9
Advanced Analytics
What Clients are asking for...
Dont just tell me what happened...

What was it worth in terms of consideration,
engagement, and sales?
And then, what do we need to next?
10
ORGANIC.COM
Advanced Analytics
Our Proprietary Modeling Suite

MEDIA
SOCIAL
MEDIA
Creative
Regeneration
Return on Social
Engagement
(ROSE)
Organic Media
Attribution
Reporting
(OMAR)
Velocity &
Acceleration
(V&A)
Multivariate
Testing
(MVT)
Social
Amplification
CUSTOMER
SEGMENTATION
Connection Index
(CI)
CRMalytics
SALES
COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE
CONTENT
Return on
Marketing
Investment
(ROMI)
Consideration of
Brand Index
(COBI)
Visit
Behavioral
Choice (VBC)
The Organic
Media Model
(TOMM)
Maximization
of Content
Appeal
(MOCA)
Lifetime Value
(LTV)
Spend
Planning &
Optimization
Tool
(SPOT)
Performance Management Dashboards

11
ORGANIC.COM
Advanced Analytics
Some of our Accomplishments

2008 - Predicted Chrysler Group Sales within 4% actuals
2010 - Predicted Twitter levels for U Buy Kotex post social media launches
2011 - Quantified social behavior(positive Tweets) to offline CPG sales of Healthy Choice
2011 - Developed International Fractional Attribution model for Hospitality Industry
2011 - Geographically unique modeling for Competitive Intelligence
2012 - Deployed Oscar Awards Meter
2012 - Commercialized the Creative Regeneration model per Omnicom Funded research with the Wharton
Consumer Analytics Initiative
2012 - Partnered with HP to predicted mid-term success of multi-brand growth based on Super Bowl advertising
from VW to Doritos.
2012 - Predicted Trials, Repeats Purchases, and Shipments of Pull-Ups within ~3% of actuals
12
ORGANIC.COM
Consumer
Connection
The Connection
Index
13
ORGANIC.COM
Consumer Connection
What Clients Are faced With Today
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ORGANIC.COM
Consumer Connection
Customers Interact with Brands in One of Three Ways.
Paid Media: Drives the brands message to consumers and attempts to provoke a response.
Paid Search
Display Advertising
Earned Behaviors: Conversations about the brand driven by consumers themselves, often
without your prompting or control.
Social Media
Organic/Natural Search
Owned Properties: Digital assets owned by the brand where the message is controlled and
attempts to drive potential customers to action.
Websites
Email/CRM
Owned Social Channels
15
ORGANIC.COM
Consumer Connection
Example -
Earned
Paid
Owned
16
ORGANIC.COM
Consumer Connection
Example -
Earned
Paid
Owned
17
ORGANIC.COM
Consumer Connection
Example -
Earned
Paid
Owned
18
ORGANIC.COM
Consumer Connection
Example -
Earned
Paid
Owned
www....
19
ORGANIC.COM
Consumer Connection
Example -
Earned
Paid
Segments
Owned
Connection
Index
Driving
Insights
Sales
Forecasting
Optimization
20
ORGANIC.COM
Using the Connection Index

With Pull-Ups
Single Score
High Impact
Touch-points
Trackable
over Time
21
ORGANIC.COM
Applying the CI to Product Use Stages

Using Sub-Indices
Product Use Stages
Comparing
Trends
22
ORGANIC.COM
A Little About Causality

Casual Relationships Proven for Pull-Ups

Trials
Trials influence
the Connection Index
Connection Index is an indication

of Repeats,
and vice-versa
Granger Causality
Feedback System
Connection Index
Repeats
Granger Causality
Shipments
24
Connection Index is also an

indicator of Shipments
ORGANIC.COM
Forecasting with the CI

Using Casual Relationships
Forecasting Consumer Purchasing
Observed vs.
Predicted
25
ORGANIC.COM
The Path To Optimization

Understanding the latest Drivers of the CI
Visits and Repeat Visits have the biggest impact on
140.0
Pull-Ups Connection Index: Influencing Factors
120.0
8.5
increasing the score

-Elastic: Visits & Repeat Visits
-Mildly Elastic: Search
-Inelastic: Bounce Rate, Blogs, News
6.9
10.3
8.5
100.0
6.6
10.3
80.0
52.2
The bounce rate is very inelastic

-Improving it, while important, will not have a major
60.0
43.8
8.1
impact on the CI
40.0
8.6
8.7
8.6
29.7
Growth in the CI has been largely due to the growth of

Overall Visits
-Repeat Visits are up 37% over last month
26
20.0
17.0
-
April
Visits
Visit Growth
May
Bounce Rate
Repeat Visitors
Search
Blogs
News
ORGANIC.COM
Spend Planning & Optimization

The CI as the Basis For Tactical Media Adjustment
27
ORGANIC.COM
The Big Picture for Pull-Ups

Using the CI
1-YTD our forecasting accuracy has been within 2% of actuals.
5% for Shipments
3% for Penetration
2% for Repeat Rate
2- Digital ecosystem are inter-connected so we can see which things move in concert
and which are independent drivers whose levers we can pull through a simulation tool.
4 - The impact of online and offline media is clearly evident on consumer connection
and subsequent behavior.
5 - The CI allows us to forecast the influence a specific channel(i.e. social) has on the
performance of media.
28
ORGANIC.COM
Going Forward
What weve learned...

Use a holistic or multi-channel analytics approach that never loses sight of
the business objectives.
Attempt to incorporate offline metrics into mix such as TRPs(for T.V.) or instore coupon redemptions.
Make sure to involve agency partners during the analysis process(i.e. the
Media vendors).
ALWAYS involve Subject Matter Experts like digital strategists, creative, client
marketers.
Dont under-estimate the value of primary research for attitudinal insights.

29
ORGANIC.COM
THX :)
30

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Marketing Intelligence

Thursday, November 29, 12

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

19 years of Digital Marketing, Mobile, and

BS Computer Information Systems, Indiana University

Founded in 1993, The Original Digital Agency.

Created the original Yahoo logo

Hosted the development of the Apache Server

Designed original banner ad on Hotwired(Sorry)

Created the first US WAP Site

The first mobile marketing campaign for Sprint

Created the first youtube channel for Paris Hilton

Launched the first social media campaign on Myspace for Xmen

Launched predictive modeling in digital marketing for Chrysler

Thursday, November 29, 12

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

What Clients are asking for...

Dont just tell me what happened...

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Our Proprietary Modeling Suite

Performance Management Dashboards

Some of our Accomplishments

ORGANIC 2012. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Thursday, November 29, 12

ORGANIC 2012. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Thursday, November 29, 12

ORGANIC 2012. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Thursday, November 29, 12

ORGANIC 2012. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Thursday, November 29, 12

ORGANIC 2012. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Thursday, November 29, 12

Using the Connection Index

Applying the CI to Product Use Stages

A Little About Causality

Casual Relationships Proven for Pull-Ups

Connection Index is an indication

Connection Index is also an

Forecasting with the CI

The Path To Optimization

Pull-Ups Connection Index: Influencing Factors

increasing the score

The bounce rate is very inelastic

Growth in the CI has been largely due to the growth of

Spend Planning & Optimization

The Big Picture for Pull-Ups

What weve learned...

Dont under-estimate the value of primary research for attitudinal insights.

ORGANIC 2011. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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