Olson 1

The Factors of HIV/AIDS

in America
Kayley Olson
PPS 206
Dr. Tzoumis
Winter

1.0 Introduction

Olson 2

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune

Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) disease for years has been
a largely researched topic in order to find a cure for those
who have been largely affected by it. In order for people to
understand the dynamics of this disease it must be
understood as to which factors can cause someone to
develop HIV/AIDS. The following research question has been
formulated to address this, which factors cause someone to
be at higher risk of developing HIV/AIDS?
To further address the research question at hand, three
hypotheses were formulated to run tests to find the
significance of the variables at hand. The hypotheses tested
are as followed. In comparing states, those that partake in
male-to-male sexual contact (MSM) are more likely to get
HIV/AIDS. In comparing states, those that are African
American citizens are more likely to get HIV/AIDS. In
comparing states, those that are white citizens are less likely
to get HIV/AIDS.
This research question and furthermore the hypotheses
that are in question for significance are very important for

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many reasons. These reasons being they can help find the
cure of it, help implement prevention measures, and
hopefully can help learn as to how society could possibly
eradicate the disease entirely so people can stop suffering
from this life threatening disease. The HIV/AIDS disease ruins
the lives of many, and creates pressing issues that no person
should necessarily ever have to deal with.
Issues that arise are far more complicated than just
merely health complications. Financial burdens are created,
social inequality and stigmas must be dealt with and the
hardships of creating intimate relationships face people
when they are diagnosed with this disease. The more
information that is found out about it, it can lead to the
possibility of then managing the disease and preventing it
from spreading as much as it has in the world. Quite
possibly, from prevention could come eradication if the
disease from ever burdening another person again.
When tests were conducted on the population of
Whites, African Americans and Whites, an OLS test as well as
multicollinearity tests on the variables, there was a weak

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statistically significant relationship in the overall regression

model, but not with the individual independent variables
when tested against the HIV/AIDS population. This means
that even though the ANOVA results said it was significant,
the standardized betas did not find significance with the
data.
Furthermore with the multicollinearity test, there was
multicollinearity found with the population of Whites and
African Americans. This is especially bad because this means
that these variables relate with each other better than it
would have ever with the dependent variable of HIV/AIDS
population. This is a very important find in the data because
it signifies that there should possibly be a different variable
that should be tested instead of one of there two together.
To bypass the multicollinearity in the data the OLS was
run many times, once with all the data variables, once with
all the separate independent variables on their own, and
once with African Americans and MSM, and once with Whites
and MSM. However the findings here when comparing the
adjusted r-square value, there was not significant enough

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change in the overall strength of the data, and there was not
any change in the significance of the standardized beta of
the independent variables as well. The reasoning behind the
results mean that possibly because the sample size of the
data was too small to have any real impact of any capacity
of the data.
To test the control (of men as the majority population in
a given state), it was ran with the variables during an OLS
test and it was found that there was no significance in the
control to the dependent variable of HIV/AIDS population.
This is very good news because it means that there has not
been a possible independent variable that works better with
the dependent variables than the ones that have already
been previously chosen.
Overall, statistically speaking, it cannot be concluded
that any of the variables of the White, African American or
MSM population have a statistically significant relationship
with the population of HIV/AIDS. This is again due to the fact
that even though the overall regression model says there is
significance the standardized betas say differently. Also

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contributing to the fact that the data is not significant can be

because of the multicollinearity and the many missing data
values that were in the data sets that were tested.

2.0 Literature Review

One of the greatest epidemics in the world that still has
no cure today is the Human Immunodeficiency
Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS). It
has affected many that stretch across the globe. Today more
research is being done to understand what causes HIV/AIDS
and what cure there possibly is in order to prevent it, and
hopefully eradicate it. The exact cause of HIV/AIDS is not
directly explained, and there is not a certainty of what
directly puts someone in direct risk of developing or getting
the HIV/AIDS virus.
In many of the findings when looking at the issues in
developing HIV/AIDS, there are two major contributing
factors that tend to come up more than any others. The
biggest group of people who tend to be at risk for HIV/AIDS

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are men who have sex with men (MSM), and specific racial
groups such as African Americans.
These variables of race and MSM are going to be tested
to see if there is statistically strong relationship with the
HIV/AIDS population of America, as the literature suggests. In
recent years, the Obama Administration has been largely
trying to eradicate this epidemic, and strongly funding
research to find the cure.
Since these variables are quite common amongst
scholars and finding out as to more what goes into being at
risk for HIV/AIDS, the following three hypotheses are being
tested as well as a control to see what are the factors that
lead to being at risk with HIV/AIDS. In comparing states,
those that partake in male-to-male sexual contact (MSM) are
more likely to get HIV/AIDS. In comparing states, those that
are African American citizens are more likely to get HIV/AIDS.
In comparing states, those that are white citizens are less
likely to get HIV/AIDS. The control for this test being males,
since one variable directly only effects males, and to stay
consistent with the rest of the hypotheses as well. The

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importance of these hypotheses is that two of them, African

Americans and MSM, will further pursue the idea that as long
as HIV/AIDS has been around and as much research that has
been put into it shows that the social stigmas that go
towards there people who fall under these identifiers do in
fact have a higher chance of being at risk for HIV/AIDS.

2.1 Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)

Men who have sex with men or (MSM) were the first
major telltale sign of having HIV/AIDS. MSM that tends to be
related to homosexual men, were the first reason people
thought the disease was transmitted. As it was a huge
prejudice against homosexuals during the 80s when this
disease became prominent, people were not wrong; sexual
transmission of HIV/AIDS does come through MSM contact.
According to Cook et al., (2007, 7), MSM have
accounted for a higher proportion of AIDS cases than any
other group in countries such as the United States, Canada
and Australia. Again, while this epidemic of MSM was huge
during the 80s during the first emergence of the disease,

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researchers are finding that the numbers are rising again

and that something must be done about it.
The biggest problem that the United States is facing is
being able to address the unaccounted 21% of people who
do not know they are infected with the HIV/AIDS virus. The
biggest transmitter of this disease is having unprotected sex
with someone who is positive for the disease. Lafeuillade and
Stevenson, along with Cook et al. all agree that most MSM is
unprotected leaving the possibility of getting the HIV/AIDS
virus from someone who already has it, is great. Lafeuillade
and Stevenson (2011, 62) say, Recent US surveys of MSM
document high rates of unsafe sex. Crepaz and Marks
(2001, 137) say, a considerable percentage of
seropositive persons continue to engage in unprotected
sexual behaviors that place others at risk for infection and
place themselves at risk for contracting secondary infections
that may accelerate HIV disease.
New surveys have been conducted to further see how
males who partake in MSM are also affected by HIV/AIDS.
Assuming that the men who partake in MSM are homosexual

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or bisexual, a survey conducted in Australia, construed the

idea that homosexual and bisexual culture elicited sharing
injection drug use (IDU) amongst fellow users, which adds
another way of being infected with the HIV/AIDS virus. As
Aggleton et al., (2015, 212) state, The findings resonate in
Australia, where gay and bisexual men who inject crystal
(and other drugs) are more likely than men who do not inject
to be HIV-positive and to report recent unprotected sex.
This added level of having a greater risk of getting the
HIV/AIDS virus because of MSM and its behavior, truly
resonate the possibility that men who have sex with men are
at a great risk of the population

As seen in the different

literature on this topic, there is a prominent correlation

occurring in the United States where a majority of the
population of people who have HIV/AIDS are usually males
who partake in MSM. This is where the HIV/AIDS was first
stigmatized and turned out to be very valid that it was a true
factor in developing HIV/AIDS. However, while MSM
contributes to be a large factor into being at risk for the

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disease, there are other very big factors that could cause a
higher risk of getting the disease.
2.2 African Americans and Whites
Race determines more than skin color, it nowadays
determines socioeconomic factors, social stigmas and can
quite possibly determine the possibility of being at higher
risk for developing HIV/AIDS. Crepaz et al (2008, 1178) say,
Heterosexual African Americans are disproportionately
impacted by HIV. Cleveland et al., (2009, S352) also agree
when they say, Black men were disproportionately affected
compared with other racial/ethnic groups.
Research has mentioned that while IDU is no longer a
main concern as it was back in the 1980s for being at risk
for HIV/AIDS, sexually transmitted infections (STI) is the main
way that HIV/AIDS are being spread in the black community.
As Gray et al., (2013, 143) say, Because the presence of
STIs can serve as a marker of HIV risk and can facilitate HIV
transmission by a factor of 2 to 5, the disproportionate rates
of these STIs in Black communities need to be addressed
with increased screening and treatment efforts as part of a

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comprehensive plan to stop the ongoing sexual transmission

of HIV. The little knowledge that people posses, especially in
black communities make it especially tough to prevent
people from developing the HIV/AIDS infection, and puts
them at a higher risk for living in an environment that cannot
properly educate them and lower the risk of getting infected.
As Jones et al., (2015, 482) continue this point when they
say, Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV are vital
components of efforts to stop transmission of HIV and
progression to AIDS in Black communities.
In continuing with STI as the main way of transmission
among the black communities, it is stated over and over
again that unprotected sex in this community is the largest
reason African Americans are at such a high risk. The
education that comes with preventing HIV/AIDS is one that is
not always available for the black communities. As Crepaz et
al., (2008, 1182) say, Our study shows that behavioral
interventions can significantly and positively influence sexual
risk behaviors among heterosexual African Americans . The
intervention, meaning education to help change African

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Americans behavior on partaking in unprotected sex.

Most of these works say the same thing about African
Americans and their high risk of getting the HIV/AIDS
infection more so than other ethnic groups. They all agree
that it is because of the lack of resources that most black
communities in America obtain to help communities
understand what precautions must be taken in order to
prevent them from getting the disease. More so than just the
community itself, but also the culture that comes with being
African American.
As discussed before, it is mentioned that through sexual
transmission is the main method of being at risk for the
disease. However as Bradford et al (2000, 520) discuss,
there is a social stigma that comes from admitting,
especially in men, sexual contact that can occur. In this case
MSM, and because of the social stigma that comes from the
possibility of someone knowing that a man had sex with
another man, they hide it, and dont necessarily own up to
the fact as to how they got it, to save themselves from a
social stigma of possibly being ostracized. With people living

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in fear of being hurt by the social stigma of their

communities, they continue to live their lives with the
disease in secrecy. By doing so it is just contributing to the
fact that unless cases are brought up to public health official,
there is nothing that can be done about this problem and the
risk factors that are associated with it. Living in ignorance by
trying to hide it is causing more harm than good.
2.3 Summary
Overall, when looking at all literature that helps
contribute to the research question as to what factors
contribute to a higher risk of getting HIV/AIDS, MSM and
being African American is the prominent determining factor,
according to the literature, of being at high risk. While there
is speculation in African Americans as a determining risk
factor for HIV/AIDS, there is speculation between scholars as
to why them over other ethnicities, whether it be because of
socioeconomic status and the lack of resources because of
this, or the social stigma, especially for men, partaking in
MSM and getting HIV/AIDS.

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In both of the variables explored, it is quite clear that

the main method of transmission for HIV/AIDS is through
sexual transmission, and more so than just sexual
transmission, unprotected sexual transmission. But more so
than just sexual transmission, there is the need to tell
people. As Frank and Yehia (2011, e7) state constantly in
their literature, the unknowing of who is effected by
AIDS/HIV and are unwilling to get themselves tested out is
part of the ignorance in America that we need to get over so
that we can fully understand the infection at large. Education
for people affected and those who could be affected will
triumph the disease at large.
Once again there is a consistency amongst all the
literature and most of the variables discussed suggest a
strong risk factor for those partaking in MSM as well as being
African American.
3.0 Research Design and Methods
Looking at the risk factors that can affect someones
likelihood of developing Human Immunodeficiency/ Acquired
Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) there are two types

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of variables that stand out amongst the rest, which are race
and sexual orientation. Three hypotheses have been
developed to test the effects that these variables could have
on being at a higher risk of developing HIV/AIDS.
In comparing states, those that partake in male-to-male
sexual contact (MSM) are more likely to get HIV/AIDS. In
comparing states, those that are African American citizens
are more likely to get HIV/AIDS. In comparing states, those
that are white citizens are less likely to get HIV/AIDS.
The MSM data collected for this was all public record
data that was collected from each states department of
public health with their annual HIV/AIDS report that they
published online. For population data as pertaining to race
and which sex was more dominant in the area, this was all
collected through US Census data online.
3.1 Measurement for HIV/AIDS Development
In order to obtain the data for the population of
HIV/AIDS in the United States it was taken from the annual
data reports of 2013 for each state in the United States. It
was taken from each state since this is the unit of analysis

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for the cross-sectional test that is being done on all of the

data sets.
In each of these annual reports that are reported legally
for the use of the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the
numbers reported are done so through percentages of the
population of current citizens with living reported cases of
HIV/AIDS. Each state has to legally report through their
department of public health an annual HIV/AIDS report which
means the reliability of the data is very high since this is
dealing with real number of cases reported to hospitals when
they come in. However there is also a validity issue since
there are some states that did not have their annuals
available online, and more so these are only the reported
known cases in a given state. There is a high possibility that
there are more cases that are unknown since most people
can live their life without knowing they have HIV/AIDS or
possibly do not have access to health programs where they
can get tested for the possibility of having HIV/AIDS.
3.2 Measurement for African-Americans, MSM, and
Whites

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For African Americans and Whites, this data was

collected from simple census population data from the year
2013. The percentage of each race was taken and compared
with the rest of the data. The complications with taking data
from the census is that the census does not reach all people,
which means a huge chunk of the homeless population is
most likely missing from this data. More than that, some
people may identify with more than just one race because
they could possibly have mixed parents. With that being said
there is a possibility that oversampling could have occurred
where more people were accounted for, while at the same
time having missing samples because not everyone
participates in the US census.
For MSM, the data was once again taken from the
annual HIV/AIDS report that each states legally publishes
through their Department of Public Health. The reliability of
this data is very low since MSM is a very controversial topic
due to social stigmas of having homosexual or bisexual
tendencies.
3.3 Males as the Dominant Population in a State

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The data of having males used as a control came from

US Census data and it was determined in which states (since
that is the unit of analysis) where men dominated the
population. The only reliability and validity of gathering from
the US Census is that there are people that can be missing
from it since the Census does not necessarily reach
everyone and the homeless population is a bug chunk of the
population missing from the US Census. So while the data is
valid, it may not be reliable since missing data values are in
the Census data.
The majority of this data shows that women are the
biggest population in the United States. By using males as
the control in the experiment may not be the best idea since
it is shown by the data that males are not as dominant as
females when looking at the entire country. However males
do need to be used since one of the independent variables,
MSM, only can pertain to men and to be consistent with the
other independent variables, men has to be the gender
chosen to be the control despite them being less significant
population speaking from the data.

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3.4 Theoretical Regression Model

Figure 1.0
Y = a + B(1)X(1) + B(2)X(2) + B(3)X(3) + e
HIV/AIDS = African Americans + Men who have Sex with Men
(MSM) - White + e
3.5 Reliability Issues
Reliability issues that could impact the results of the
data it the amount of missing values there are, and how
reliable the data set is of MSM (men who have sex with men)
and the total population of MSM in a given state and the
total population of people who also have HIV/AIDS can have
missing values. This is because not everyone will own up to
one, partaking in MSM due to possible social stigmas and not
wanting to be associated with it, and two, not everyone
knows the have HIV/AIDS so the data only covers those who
have reported that they have HIV/AIDS.
Due to missing values, this could impact the data
results because all the data is not there to be tested. Which
means that the significance of the data must be taken lightly
because there are missing values that could change the

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results entirely. This goes for the same with the variables of
White, African Americans and the control of males because
as stated before, there are missing data values because the
data is being collected from the US Census data.

3.6 Validity Issues

There are very little issues with the validity of this data
because for the most part all of this data is coming from
government documents that are required by law to be as
accurate as possible. But once again, all the data cannot be
completely valid unless there are all variables accounted for.
As stated before there are missing values for many of the
variables. Another possible validity issue with the variables is
how accurate the MSM results are. For MSM, as stated in
reliability issues, these results most likely are not as
accurate as they could be because men will not necessarily
report their sexual activities, so with the missing data it
accounts for them being as inaccurate since not every
possible person who partakes in MSM is accounted for. This

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also goes for the HIV/AIDS population since not all the cases
in have been recorded by public health officials.
Because of this there is a giant possibility of the data
affecting the results because they will not entirely be valid.
This means that the interpretation of the results must be
taken lightly if there is significance found in the data
because missing data could cause error in the data. The data
overall then, even if found to be significant would still be
inaccurate due to all the missing data variables there are.
3.7 Test for Multicollinearity
A multicollinearity test will be done on each of the
variables in relation to each other. This test needs to be
carried out to see if there is relation between the variables
that could cause the overall model of the data to look as
though there is significance between one of the independent
variables and the HIV/AIDS population dependent variable
when in actuality it could just be that there is relationship
between two of the independent variables.
If multicollinearity is found it means that when
interpreting the results of the data, this will have t be

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factored into it because it means there is an even bigger

possibility that the data may be significant but for the wrong
reasons. Further steps will be taken to also bypass this by
running the linear regression test with the variables (if there
is multicollinearity) independently instead of with the whole
model as another way to measure their specific significance
to the HIV/AIDS population dependent variable.
3.8 Summary
Overall when testing the data for the risk factors that
go into someone having the possibility of developing
HIV/AIDS by either being African American, white or
partaking in MSM, it will be tested through an OSL (ordinary
square lease) test, from data that was collected from public
data. This data was all mainly collected from US government
documents made available for public use online, with three
states missing their data on MSM and HIV/AIDS population.
When looking at the reliability and the validity of the
data collected and it being tested, there is skepticism as to
whether the data really is reliable and valid since there are

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missing values in the data since this is a controversial topic

that not many people are open to discussing.
To also address multicollinearity, there will be another
correlation test done on the independent variables to make
sure they do not correlate with each other and they will only
correlate with the dependent variable of the HIV/AIDS
population when looking at the overall model of the data.

4.0 Results
When looking at the possible risk factors that could
raise the chance of developing HIV/AIDS, three variables
were developed to create three hypotheses to test this
research question. The three hypotheses are as followed. In
comparing states, those that partake in male-to-male sexual
contact (MSM) are more likely to get HIV/AIDS. In comparing
states, those that are African American citizens are more
likely to get HIV/AIDS. In comparing states, those that are
white citizens are less likely to get HIV/AIDS.
After running an ordinary lease square test on these
variables and their data, there is no significance in the

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population of African-Americans, Whites and MSM to the risk

of getting HIV/AIDS. The results suggested that there was
significance in the overall model of the data, however there
was not significance in the independent variables itself. This
suggests that there could have been significance in the data
but due to the small sampling size of the data population,
there was not enough to sustain any significance from the
data tested.

4.1 Multicollinearity Results

After running a multicollinearity test on the data sets of
MSM, African Americans and Whites, there is multicollinearity
in the data with African Americans and Whites. There is not a
statistically significant relationship between MSM and African
Americans (Pearsons r = -.120, sig = .423). There is not a
statistically significant relationship between MSM and Whites
(Pearsons r = .027, sig = .858). There is a statistically
significant relationship between Whites and Africans
Americans (Pearsons r = -.904, sig = .000).

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The reason as to why African Americans and Whites

population caused multicollinearity is because these two
races are the majority when looking at race in each state.
Because these are the two biggest race populations in the
United States compared to minority races in the United
States they are going to account for the majority of the race.
From this, it can cause multicollinearity because it is
accounting for almost the same chunk of the population as
the other does, they both contribute to the overall
population more so than any other race.
A possibility to avoid this problem with multicollinearity
is that when an ordinary lease square test is run, it is run
without the variables that have multicollinearity. However
when this is run in an OLS, the adjusted r-square value does
not change enough to say that the absence of one of the
variables makes the data significant. This is most likely
because there is not a big enough sampling size for an OLS
to be run to find significance in the data. Another possibility
is to simply find another variable and substitute it in for

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either Whites or African Americans and run the OLS and see
if there is significance with another independent variable.
Table 1.0 Multicollinearity Findings using Pearsons r
African

Whites

MSM

African

Americans
1

-.904*

-.120

Americans
Whites

(n=47)
-.904*

(n=47)
1

(n=47)
.027

MSM

(n=47)
-.120

(n=47)
.027

(n=47)
1

(n=47)
(n=47)
(n=47)
___________________________
*=sig. at .05 or less
4.2 Applied Regression Model Results
There is a weak statistically significant relationship
between Whites, African Americans and MSM to HIV/AIDS
population (f=9.901, sig=.000, adjusted r-square=.367).
However, there is not a statistically significant relationship
between Whites and the HIV/AIDS population (std. b. =
-.332, sig=.240). There also is not a statistically significant
relationship between African Americans and the HIV/AIDS
population (std. b. = .295, sig=.300). As well as there is not

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a statistically significant relationship between MSM and the

HIV/AIDS population (std. b. = .295, sig=.228).
The possible reasoning as to why the overall model of
the data is significant and why the independent variables as
they stand alone to the HIV/AIDS population is insignificant
could possibly be because the sample size of the data is too
small. N, only equaled 47, which is not a very big sample
size to begin with. If there was more data from a bigger
sample size then maybe one or more of the independent
variables could have sustained the model and made the
variables chosen significant.

Table 2.0 Regression Results

Independent

Standardized Betas

Significance

Variables
Whites

-.332

.240

African Americans

(n=47)
.295

.300

MSM

(n=47)
-.147

.228

(n=47)
________________________

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*=Sig is .05 or less

Adjusted R2 = .409
F Stat = 9.901; sig=.000
________________________
Figure 3.0 Applied Regression Model
HIV/AIDS Population = 1.154 + .319(African
Americans) - .146(MSM) - .317(Whites) + e
________________________
4.3 Males as the Dominant Sex in the State
Population
There was no impact of the control of men on the
overall significance of the data. There is not a statistically
significant relationship between males and the HIV/AIDS
population (std. b. = .029, sig= .834). Since the significance
of the data is far greater than the significance of the data
being equal to or less than .05, it means that the control was
not significant in the data. This is good in the sense that this
means that this variable of being male is not a significant
variable more so than the other variables chosen to
represent the overall model to determine the possible risk
factors of getting HIV/AIDS.
4.4 Summary

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After running a multicollinearity test and an ordinary

square lease test on the population of Whites, African
Americans and Whites, including the control of males, there
is statistically no significance in the data regarding to the
HIV/AIDS population. While the overall model, obtained from
an ordinary square lease test suggested the possibility of
having significance, the independent variables when they
stood alone did not have significance to the HIV/AIDS
population.
The multicollinearity test that was run for the
independent variables suggested that some of the variables
did overlap while others did not. The two independent
variables that overlapped was the White and African
American population. However when MSM was tested for
both the White and African American Population there was
no multicollinearity.
The control had no impact on the data because there
was no significance in the overall model of the data after
running an ordinary square lease test with the control
included with the other independent variables. From this, it

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means that there is not an outside factor, like a population

being mainly male dominant that contributes to the risk of
getting HIV/AIDS. If it were it means that it should have been
included as an independent variable, however since its not
and since it has statistically very little significance, there is a
very little chance that being in a male dominant state that
one will develop HIV/AIDS.
Overall, the data as tested first with multicollinearity
presented a problem with overlap between Whites and
African Americans. Due to this it caused further
complications once an OLS was tested and the data was
insignificant. The other complication that arose from the
data is that while the datas overall regression model was
significant the variables alone were not enough to sustain a
significant model due to the small sampling size the data
was taken from.
5.0 Conclusion
The original proposed research question as to which
factors can raise someones chances of developing HIV/AIDS
is essentially inconclusive from the data presented since the

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data overall was insignificant and there were too many

missing variables to make any of the independent variables
significant. Backtracking to what the results said, the overall
linear regression model was significant however this is not
valid enough to sustain the model that the White population,
African American population and the MSM population
contribute to getting HIV/AIDS. The most that can be said is
that these variables together have a statistically weak
significance as pertaining to the population of those who
have HIV/AIDS.
The results of the control, which was the males as the
dominant sex in a given state, on the overall regression
model had no impact on the results of the data. This
included no significant change in the adjusted r-square value
or in the significance of the standardized betas. For the
results of the multicollinearity, there was multicollinearity in
just the variables of the Whites population and the African
American population. To adjust for this mistake, the OLS test
that was done with the Whites, African Americans and MSM
was done once all together, once with all the variables

Olson 33

separately and another with African Americans and MSM,

and Whites and MSM. However even with the separate
testing to adjust for the multicollinearity, there was no
significant change in the adjusted r-square value or in the
standardized betas significance. Therefore the only
significance in the data that can be concluded is from the
overall regression model of the data, however it is weak and
needs a larger sample size to sustain a significant
standardized beta.
For further research on this topic, there is a lot more
that needs to be done. In this test only two variables were
truly tested which was MSM and race. To have a more
thorough analysis of the data, there should have been three
different variables instead of truly just two since African
Americans and Whites are both considered races. A third
variable had been considered for this topic, which had also
popped up quite often in the literature that was read
regarding this topic which was injected drug use (IDU).
However there would be more reliability and validity issues

Olson 34

in this variable, and to even find the data to support this

variable is very uncommon.
For IDU to truly be a variable that could have been used
in this data, the drug use would have had to been something
using a needle, however people usually do not report by the
masses their injecting drug usages, it is usually just stated
whether a person uses illegal substances or not. Furthermore
there is not specific categorical data available to determine
which drugs people exactly use by each state. Not to
mention, in general people may not want to report any drug
usage due to the negative stigma that is associated with
drug usage.
However though, having a variable like that would be
very valuable to the research because it would cover one of
the other controversial factors of people seemingly to
develop HIV/AIDS. If there were data on this variable that
was valid and reliable then it could be used for further
statistical tests. It could help understand the true dangers of
HIV/AIDS especially when it comes to solving this epidemic
and trying to eliminate the risk factors entirely.

Olson 35

One of the largest problems with this data besides

having more variables available is that the sample size was
too small. Granted the HIV/AIDS population is not huge to
begin with in the first place, but possibly by changing the
unit of analysis from the states populations to the countries
population there could be possibility of getting more units of
analysis where the n would be greater than simply 47,
which was the available data for the states and their
HIV/AIDS and MSM population.
In all honesty, to get a better interpretation of which
factors do truly affect people in the way of possibly getting
the HIV/AIDS virus should be looked on a larger scale rather
than such a small one where in this, it was only focused on
the United States, even though this disease affects people
world wide. By expanding the unit of analysis to places
where everyone is affected by it, it opens up the discussion
also where it could possibly be pinpointed as to where the
largest saturation of people affected by the disease live.
From there further research can be done to take preventative
measures in that specific geographical location to looks at

Olson 36

the factors where people are being largely affected in their

day to day lives.
An even further possible step that can be taken to
further the data is by moving this research design from a
cross sectional data experiment to a longitudinal data series
to look at multiple factors that contribute to developing
HIV/AIDS over a series of time. This would expand the
sample size so that there is more possibility to find
significance in the data. An analysis of this data, if it were to
be run, could also possibly shows trends in how factors used
to affect people and no longer do, or at trends that have now
emerged when they did not use to affect people before. By
moving the data series like this into the future, it would
increase the data sampling size as well as the potential for a
greater and more thorough analysis to occur about the data
since there is a possibility it could be significant with the
larger sampling size.
Overall, when proposed with the question what factors
contribute to the potential development of HIV/AIDS, it is still
unanswered with this research. It can only truly be said that

Olson 37

there is no significance in the data. There was too small of a

sampling size to get any true significance in the
standardized betas, even though there was some
significance in the overall model of the data. That being said,
it could be because the sampling size was too small or that
there was multicollinearity between two of the variables, but
it could simply be, statistically speaking, no significance
between the African American population, the White
population and the MSM population due to how much
reliability and validity issues that arose from testing these
data sets.

Olson 38

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