WORLD ELECTRICITY

IN THE YEAR 2050

Asko Vuorinen

1
World electricity in the year 2050
Contents

Electricity generation today

Electricity consumption forecast

Trends in power plant construction

Follow the trend scenario a)

Nuclear renesance scenario b)

Optimal scenario c)

2
Electricity generation in the
world today (2005)

3
Electricity in the world today
Assumptions

The actual capacities of different type
of power plants in year 2005 are used

Hyphothetical situation where all
plants would be in a single system

The plants would operate in merit
order by variable costs

The lowest variable cost plants
operate on the base load and highest
cost plants in the peak load
4
Electricitity in the world today
Load duration curve in 2005
Electrical Load Duration Curve 2005
(Base)

3500
Ind GT
3000
AD GT
Diesel Eng.
2500
HFO 2
2000 Gas Eng.
(GW)

GTCC
1500 Coal
Nuclear
1000 Bio-oil
Biomass
500
HFO 1
CHP
0
Wind
0

0
00
00

00
00

00
00
00

00
00
00

00

00

00
00
00

00
60
5
25

50

Hydro
10
15

20
25

30

35
40

45
50
55

60
65

70
75
80

85

87
(h/a)

5
Electricity in the world today
Capacities and generation
Capacity Load Load
GW TWh %
--------------------------------------------------------------
Base load plants* 1660 8600 50 %
Coal power plants 1000 6500 38 %
Gas plants 880 2000 12 %
Peaking oil plants 600 100 <1%
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total 4140 17200 100%
* The base load plants include here hydro, wind, CHP,
Biomass, bio-oil and nuclear

6
Forecast of electricity
consumption in 2050

7
Forecast of electricity consumption
in the year 2050, Methods

Collect the actual consumption figures
from last ten years from different parts
of the world

Calculate the trend of consumption
using linear fit of actual figures

Estimate the consumtion in the year
2050 using the trend

8
 Forecast of electricity consumption
in the year 2050
World electricity consumption

45000

40000

35000
Rest of Asia
30000 China

25000 Africa
(TWh)

Middle-East
20000
Europe
15000 S&C America
North-America
10000

5000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

9
 Forecast of electricity consumption
in the year 2050 (TWh)
2005 2050 Growth
North-America 5066 8630 70%
S&C America 951 2185 130%
Europe 5102 8726 71%
Middle-East 614 1822 197%
Africa 546 1315 141%
China 2475 8531 245%
Rest of Asia 3431 8194 139%
World total 18185 39404 117%

Electricity consumption will more than double by 2050

Consumtion in China and Middle-East will trible
North-America, Europe and China will each consume
22 % of all electricity generated in the world in 2050
10
Trends in power plant
construction

11
Trends in power plant construction
Methods

Study orders of power plant

technologies for last ten years

Calculate trend using linear fit of points

Estimate future orders using the trend

12
Trends in power plant construction
Orders of gas turbines

Orders of Gas Turbines (above 1 MW)

140000

120000

100000

80000
(MW)

Actual
60000 Trend

40000

20000

0
95

96
97

98
99

00
01

02
03

04
05

06
07

08

09
10

11
12
19

19
19

19
19

20

20
20

20
20

20
20

20

20

20
20

20
20
13
 Trends in power plant construction
Orders of internal combustion engines

Orders of Internal Combustion Engines

(above 1 MW unit size)

25000

20000

15000
(MW)

Actual
Trend
10000

5000

0
96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11
19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
14
Trends in power plant construction
Orders of oil fired internal combustion
engines
Orders of Oil fired Internal Combustion Engines
(above 1 MW)

25000

20000

15000
(MW)

Actual
10000
Trend

5000

0
96

97
98

99

00

01
02

03
04

05
06

07
08

09

10

11
19

19
19

19

20

20
20

20
20

20
20

20
20

20

20

20
15
Trends in power plant construction
Orders of gas and dual-fuel fired
internal combustion engines
Orders of Gas and Dual-Fuel fired
Internal Combustion Engines (above 1 MW)

4500
4000
3500
3000
(MW)

2500 Actual
2000 Trend
1500
1000
500
0
96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03
04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11
19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
16
 Trends in power plant construction
Consumption of coal

Coal Consumption in the World

3500

3000

2500

2000
(Mtoe)

1500

1000

500

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Actual Mtoe Trend MW

17
Trends in power plant construction
Capacity additions of nuclear power plants

Capacity additions of nuclear power plants

8000

7000

6000

5000
(MW)

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Actual MW Trend MW

18
Trends in power plant construction
Capacity additions of wind turbines

Capacity additions of wind turbines

18000

16000
14000

12000
(MW)

10000
8000

6000

4000
2000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Actual MW Trend MW

19
Trends in power plant construction
Summary

Capacity additions of gas turbines,

coal and nuclear plants stay stable

Orders of internal combustion engines
increase by 1000 MW each year

Capacity additions of wind turbines
increase by 1000 MW annually

20
Scenario a)
Business as usual

21
Scenario a) Business as usual
Strategy

The present trend of increasing

capacity additions continues to 2020

After 2020 capacity additions stay at

constant level

22
 Scenario a) Business as usual
Capacity additions

Capacity additions of power plants

Scenario a) Business as usual

250000

ICE 0.5-1 MW
200000 ICE-lfo
ICE-hfo
ICE-gas
150000
Small GT
(MW)

Large GT

100000 Steam t. CC
Steam t. SC
Nuclear
50000 Wind
Hydro

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

23
Scenario a) Business as usual
Load duration curve in 2050
Electrical Load Duration Curve 2050
Scenario a) Business as usual

8000
Ind GT
7000
AD GT
6000 Diesel Eng.
HFO 2
5000
Gas Eng.
(GW)

4000 GTCC
Coal
3000 Nuclear

2000 Bio-oil
Biomass
1000 HFO 1
CHP
0
Wind
0

0
00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00
00

00

00
00

00

00

00

60
5
25

50

Hydro
10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50
55

60

65
70

75

80

85

87
(h/a)

24
Scenario a) Business as usual
Power generation in 2050

Capacity Load Load

GW TWh %
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Base load plants* 3800 17300 47 %
Coal power plants 1600 7700 33 %
Gas plants 2100 4300 19 %
Peaking oil plants 1200 100 <1 %
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 8700 37100 100%

* The base load plants include hydro, wind, CHP,

Biomass, bio-oil and nuclear

25
Scenario a) Business as usual
Summary

The power system structure remains

about the same

Coal, oil and gas fired plants will
generate >50 % of world electricity

The CO2-emissions will be 16500
million tons or double of present level*
* Present emission level has been given in system 2005
(slide 6) to be 7900 million tons CO2

26
Scenario b)
Nuclear expansion

27
Scenario b) Nuclear expansion
Strategy

Building of coal fired condensing and

gas fired GTCC plant is stopped

Coal and GTCC capacity additions

have been replaced by nuclear plants

28
Scenario b) Nuclear expansion
Capacity additions

Capacity additions of power plants

Scenario b) Nuclear expansion

250000

ICE 0.5-1 MW
200000 ICE-lfo
ICE-hfo
ICE-gas
150000
Small GT
(MW)

Large GT

100000 Steam t. CC
Steam t. SC
Nuclear
50000 Wind
Hydro

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

29
Scenario b) Nuclear expansion
Load duration curve in 2050

Electrical Load Duration Curve 2050

Scenario b) Nuclear expansion

8000
Ind GT
7000
AD GT
6000 Diesel Eng.
HFO 2
5000
Gas Eng.
(GW)

4000 GTCC
Coal
3000
Nuclear
2000 Bio-oil
Biomass
1000 HFO 1
0 CHP
Wind
0

0
00

00
00

00
00

00

00
00

00
00

00

00
00

00
00

00

60
5
25

50
10

15
20

25
30

35

40
45

50
55

60

65
70

75

80

85

87
Hydro
(h/a)

30
Scenario b) Nuclear expansion
Power generation in 2050

Capacity Load Load

GW TWh %
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Base load plants* 6600 35200 95 %
Coal power plants 600 1200 3%
Gas plants 700 700 2%
Peaking oil plants 1100 100 <1 %
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 8700 37200 100%

* The base load plants include hydro, wind, CHP,

Biomass, bio-oil and nuclear

31
Scenario b) Nuclear expansion
Summary

Base load plants will have ¾ of capacity

and will generate 95 % of electricity in the
world

Coal, oil and gas fired plants will have 1/4 of

capacity and will generate 5 % of electricity

CO2-emissions will be 3300 million tons or

60 % less than today
32
Scenario c)
Optimal power system

33
Scenario c) Optimal power system
Strategy

Wind and internal combustion engine

expansion continues with the
increasring trend to 2050

Annual capacity additions of CHP and
biofuel plants double

Nuclear plants take the rest of
capacity of coal and gas fired base
load plants
34
Scenario c) Optimal power system
Capacity additions

Capacity additions of power plants

Scenario c) Optimal system

250000

ICE 0.5-1 MW
200000 ICE-lfo
ICE-hfo
ICE-gas
150000
Small GT
(MW)

Large GT
Steam t. CC
100000
Steam t. SC
Nuclear
50000 Wind
Hydro

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

35
Scenario c) Optimal power system
Load duration curve in 2050

Electrical Load Duration Curve 2050

Scenario c) Optimal system

8000
Ind GT
7000
AD GT
6000 Diesel Eng.
HFO 2
5000
Gas Eng.
(GW)

4000 GTCC
Coal
3000
Nuclear

2000 Bio-oil
Biomass
1000 HFO 1
CHP
0
Wind
0

0
00

00

00

00
00
00

00

00

00

00
00

00
00

00

00

00
60
5
25

50

Hydro
10

15

20

25
30
35

40

45

50
55
60

65

70

75

80

85
87
(h/a)

36
Scenario c) Optimal power system
Power generation in 2050

Capacity Load Load

GW TWh %
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Base load plants* 6300 33000 88 %
Coal power plants 800 3000 8%
Gas plants 800 1100 3%
Peaking oil plants 1100 100 <1 %
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 9200 37200 100%

* The base load plants include hydro, wind, CHP,

Biomass, bio-oil and nuclear

37
Scenario c) Optimal power system
Summary

Base load power plants will have 2/3 of

capacity and will generate 88 % of world
electricity

Coal, oil and gas fired power plants will

have 1/3 of capacity and will generate 12 %
of world electricity

CO2-emissions will be 5400 million tons or

30 % less than today
38
Summary and conclusions

The consumption of electricity in 2050 will be

more than two times of the present level

If the present trend of construction of power
plants continues, the CO2-emissions will also
double (Scenario A)

In scenario C) CO2-emissions can be reduced
by 30 % from the present level

This can be achieved by stopping building coal
and gas fired base load plants and by building
of wind, nuclear and CHP-plants insteadt

39
For details see reference text book
”Planning of Optimal Power Systems”

Author:
Asko Vuorinen

Publisher:
Ekoenergo Oy

Printed:
2007 in Finland

Book and programs

are available at

www.optimalpowersystems.com 40