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9.behavioral Analysis in The Agent-Based
9.behavioral Analysis in The Agent-Based
Ichiro Nishizaki
Yuya Sugeo
Faculty of Engineering,
Hiroshima University,
Hiroshima, JAPAN
Email: hayashida@hiroshima-u.ac.jp
Faculty of Engineering,
Hiroshima University,
Hiroshima, JAPAN
Email: nisizaki@hiroshima-u.ac.jp
Faculty of Engineering,
Hiroshima University,
Hiroshima, JAPAN
Email: m103015@hiroshima-u.ac.jp
I. I NTRODUCTION
A sequential game such that all players make decision in
prearranged order is called a dynamic game or a extensive
form game. Subgame perfect equilibrium is well known solution concept which predicts a strategy set of dynamic games.
However, some experimental results of dynamic games, centipede games [14], [11], ultimatum bargaining games [3]
and so forth, which the human subjects deviate from the
equilibrium are reported. McKelvey and Palfrey [9], Fey et al.
[4] and Nagel and Tang [12] conducted laboratory experiments
of two person centipede games, and reported that the subgame
perfect equilibrium are observed in some the experiments.
Rapoport et al. [14] and Murphy et al. [11] conducted three
person games. As the result, the subgame perfect equilibrium
were rarely observed in the experiments of three person games.
To explain such human behavior, McKelvey and Palfrey
[9] and Zauner [17] proposed static stochastic choice models
including error in decision making of human subjects based
on Harsanyi model [5]. These choice models successfully
explain average result of the laboratory experiments, however,
the models do not describe dynamic change. Rapoport et al.
[14] proposed dynamic stochastic choice model. However,
this model is not necessarily suitable to choice model of the
human subjects, because this model does not include amount
of payoffs which the human subjects obtain in a game.
This paper provides simulation analysis of centipede games.
We focus on the assumption of theoretical models corresponding to equilibrium such that a player is rational and decision
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p2
2
p3
3
p1
4
p2
5
p3
6
p1
7
p2
8
p3
9
10
1
1
2
20
2
4
4
40
80
8
8
16
160
16
32
32
320
0
0
0
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( )
fractions of that
game finishes
node 1
0.8
0.6
0.4
node 2
0.2
node 3
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
term
Fig. 2.
fractions of that
game finishes
Fig. 1.
node 2
0.8
node 1
0.6
0.4
0.2
node 3
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
term
Fig. 3.
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fractions of that
game finishes
are included, and in each group, the subjects and the robots
play centipede games 90 times which the decision order is
decided at the beginning of each game. As the result, 10 terms
moving average of median of finishing nodes are shown in
Fig. 5. The horizontal axis indicates number of terms, and the
vertical axis indicates median.
medianof number of
finishing nodes
C6
7
6
NC6
NC3
Base
4
3
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
term
Fig. 5.
0.6
0.4
node 3
0.2
node 1
node 2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
term
Fig. 4.
Experiment
Experiment
Experiment
Experiment
M-Base
M-NC3
M-NC6
M-C6
18
3
15
6
15
6
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sk=1 xtk+1 k1
sk=1 k1
(1)
exp(outt / )
exp(outt / ) + exp(out p / )
(2)
(3)
1348
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.5
0.4
0.3
node 1
0.2
node 2
0.1
node 3
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
term
(Group GS )
0.5
fractions of that
game finishes
fractions of that
game finishes
We execute 6 kinds of simulation experiments corresponding to the laboratory experiments [11], [14] with conditions
as: number of agents is 300, length of considering oblivion is
s = 10, crossover probability is pc = 0.7, mutation probability
is pm = 0.003, generation gap is G = 0.3, Boltzmann constant
is = 0.05, and length of a simulation run is T = 2000. In this
paper, we write 6 kinds of experiments as simulation R-I, R-II,
M-Base, M-NC3, M-NC6, M-C6. The simulation experiments
are executed with R = 0 for simulation R-I, R-II, and M-Base,
R = 0.2 for simulation M-NC3 with Robot NC, R = 0.4 for
simulation M-NC6 with Robot NC, and R = 0.4 for simulation
M-C6 with Robot C, relating to the experiments using subjects.
The results of groups GS and GL of the simulation R-I are
shown in Fig. 6. The horizontal axes indicate the terms of
experiments and the vertical axes indicate average values of
the fraction of choosing take at nodes 13 of 100 simulation
runs.
fractions of that
game finishes
node 1
0.4
0.3
node 2
0.2
node 1
0.1
node 2
node 3
node 3
0
0
500
1000
(Group GL )
0
500
1000
1500
(Group GS )
2000
Fig. 7.
term
1500
2000
term
fractions of that
game finishes
0.5
node 1
0.4
0.3
node 2
0.2
node 3
0.1
0
0
500
1000
(Group GL )
Fig. 6.
1500
2000
term
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average number of
finishing nodes
6
M-Base(GL)
5
M-Base(GS )
4
3
R EFERENCES
2
1
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
term
M-NC3(GL )
average number of
finishing nodes
M-NC6(GL)
6
5
M-NC3(GS)
4
3
M-NC6(GS)
2
1
0
0
500
1000
1500
Fig. 8.
2000
term
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V. C ONCLUSION
In this paper, we conduct simulation analysis of the centipede games by using artificial adaptive agents. The agents
who make decision with trial-and-error process are designed
based on NN and GA. Additionally, we include risk-averse
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