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Enso - Evolution Status Fcsts Web PDF
Enso - Evolution Status Fcsts Web PDF
Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Nio Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Nio Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) were above-average near the
International Date Line and near-average in the east-central Pacific.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)
During May-September 2013, well
below-average SSTs were observed
over the eastern half of the
Pacific.
From January- February 2014, SSTs
were mostly below average across
the eastern equatorial Pacific.
0.7C
0.2C
0.1C
-0.8C
Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific
Intraseasonal Variability
Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies
Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Nio 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Nio 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
Used to place current events into a historical perspective
NOAAs operational definitions of El Nio and La Nia are keyed to the ONI index.
CPC considers El Nio or La Nia conditions to occur when the monthly Nio3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5C along with consistent atmospheric features.
These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
El Nio
Neutral
La Nia
La Nia
ASO 1949 JAS 1950
SON 1950 JFM 1951
AMJ 1954 NDJ 1956/57
AMJ 1964 DJF 1964/65
JJA 1970 DJF 1971/72
AMJ 1973 JJA 1974
SON 1974 MAM 1976
ASO 1983 DJF 1983/84
SON 1984 ASO 1985
AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989
ASO 1995 FMA 1996
JJA 1998 FMA 2001
OND 2005 FMA 2006
JAS 2007 MJJ 2008
OND 2008 FMA 2009
JJA 2010 MAM 2011
ASO 2011 FMA 2012
NOTE (Mar. 2012): The historical values of the ONI have slightly changed due to an update in the climatology.
Please click here for more details on the methodology.
DJF
JFM
FMA
MAM
AMJ
MJJ
JJA
JAS
ASO
SON
OND
NDJ
2002
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.3
2003
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
2004
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
2005
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.5
-0.8
2006
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.0
2007
0.7
0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.1
-1.2
-1.4
2008
-1.5
-1.5
-1.2
-0.9
-0.7
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
2009
-0.8
-0.7
-0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.6
2010
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.1
-0.4
-0.9
-1.2
-1.4
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
2011
-1.4
-1.2
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.0
2012
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.2
-0.3
2013
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
2014
-0.6
-0.7
1 of 3
2 of 3
3 of 3
Temperature Departures
(degree C)
1 of 2
Temperature Departures
(degree C)
2 of 2
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
April June 2014
The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture,
and, when appropriate, ENSO.
Precipitation
Temperature
Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Nio Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) were above-average near the
International Date Line and near-average in the east-central Pacific.