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The Law of Thin Numbers
The Law of Thin Numbers
Executive Summary
We are born networking. Our first networking experience came with us hanging by our
heels and a doctors hand giving us a sharp pat on a bare behind. In this instance, we cried out
and announced emphatically that we had arrived, were a little bewildered, and would like some
attention as soon as possible.
We continue to network for the rest of our lives. Of course, weve all heard the
expression its not what you know, its who you know and we held this as gospel. But, as it
turns out, the saying is only half right its not just what you know or who you know; it might
be what or who the person you know knows. Thats the key aspect of networking and its
especially true with the expansion of the virtual world, where time and space is rendered
meaningless.
Business networking typically falls into two extremes. As a participant, you either
network with people you know or you are an open networker. In the former, you use the
networking site like a constantly updating little black book. For this type of person, networking
is a closed society and your ability to grow and meet new people is dependent on your actual
geography and physical presence. The disadvantage to this technique is that you lose the whole
advantage of networking virtuality. You have to be actually present to win.
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The latter, open networking, means that youll interface with anyone at all. While this
obviously increases your scope of contacts, the relationships tend to be superficial, if even that,
because you are connected to complete strangers. These are un-relationships. Its almost like
you are networking for networkings sake, as if networking was a giant scoreboard and collecting
contacts means you are running up the score. Yet, you can never win because the contacts you
have or simply numbers, no more and no less.
What is needed to accomplish effective business networking is something in between that
takes advantage of the closed or open networking technique. Such would be a place where one
can take advantage of the vast virtual world yet have a genuine bond with the people that you are
networked with. Wouldnt it be great to have a vast array of contacts and every one truly
connected to you?
But how can we accomplish this? Current business networking and collaboration sites
are valuable but inherently flawed. The basic institution is scientifically flawed and the
connections that you accomplish on these sites lack validity. The purpose of ThinNumbers is
to build a foundation for broad business networking where the relationships might be
virtual yet they are truly and genuinely real.
This paper details this challenge and hopefully points to a way that you and I are going to
solve it.
Introduction
LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and other social media outlets have proven the
world is a mighty small place. We can now build relationships virtually and continuously the
rules of time and space are no longer binding. However, while it is true that we can reach
anyone, anywhere in our virtual existence, the affiliations that we are building are largely
superficial and for the most part, have little value. We really never know the people we are
linked to and they never really know us.
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I.
Separation Theory
Business-focused, social networking sites in the virtual world are loosely based on
separation theory, a concept derived by Harvard professor Stanley Milgrams 1967
small world experiment. The intent of this study was to determine the
interconnectedness of people throughout the United States. Milgram utilized a mailed
package. This package began in the hands of a starter who was simply a person chosen
at random to participate in the study. The starters job, if they chose to participate, was to
direct this package toward a specific destination person, who, as far as Milgram knew,
was a complete stranger to the starter. There was a caveat in their effort to deliver the
package, the starter could only forward same to intermediaries who they actually knew on
a first-name basis.
To help the package along on its journey, the starter was left to devise their own method
to forward the package on toward the destination. Most used the destination persons
geographic location to help guide them. The packages were tracked with postcards to
determine how many intermediate acquaintances it took to complete the journey.
Milgram discovered the median number of transfers that the package went through from
starter to destination was five and a half or six. Thus the experiments conclusion was
that anyone could make contact with any other person utilizing their own six degrees of
separation (which became a popular parlor game Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon;
Google will even let you search for any persons Bacon Number to determine the
number of degrees said person is to Mr. Bacon). Sites like LinkedIn have an abbreviated
basis on separation theory.
In 2008, an updated small world experiment was conducted by Microsoft. This tested
electronic mail as opposed to physically mailed packages. The conclusion of the study
showed that the average chain of contacts, from starter to destination (all users of the
Microsoft Messenger Service) was 6.6 people. Though the technology was different, the
test confirmed that the six degree phenomenon present in separation theory applied to
electronic media as well.
While it is wonder that we can seemingly connect ourselves to practically anyone else on
the planet via a short chain of individuals, one fact overlooked in this small world
concept as applied to business networking is that in Milgrams experiment, nearly 80% of
the packages never reached the destination. Thus, one could conclude that separation
theory is hardly an efficient or reliable foundation for business networking. (Imagine the
uproar if only 20% of your letter handled by the U. S. Mail were actually delivered).
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II.
III.
Expectancy Theory
It is an unfortunate and simple truth that most people do not tend to voluntarily help
strangers. This is especially true when it comes to business relationships. Consider what
I call the stranger introduction request. Youre at a party when a perfect stranger comes
up to you and having seen you conversing with another particular party goer, asks if you
would make an introduction to that person. Would you make such an introduction? The
answer is probably no, at least not without some qualification.
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Similarly, the expectation of receiving assistance in a social network by someone who is,
in the literal sense, a stranger yet who is virtually linked to you via the network is quite
limited. There are explicit psychological reasons why this is true: (a) the discomfort of
being among strangers; (b) the desire not to burden those who trust us with some matter
that is not pleasant or beneficial; and/or (c) there is no personal motivation for us to
perform the action (and thus overcome all of the negatives involved).
It is this last reason upon which expectancy theory is founded. According to
expectancy theory, a person will decide to behave or act in a certain way because they are
motivated by their own personal (and perhaps selfish) desirability of the outcome of their
actions. In the above scenario, it could be that we might not wish to impose upon
someone who we know beholds us as a confidant. Then again, it could be that, as
suggested, there is simply no upside for us to do the stranger a favor.
Salespeople are generally familiar with expectancy theory because they are taught that
prospects will not make a buying decision until you discover what the particular benefit
would be for them to acquire your product or service. The acronym, WIIFM or
Whats In It For Me is commonly used to describe this relationship. (Of note, I coined
the acronym WIIFM while teaching at the AT&T National Training Center, Aurora, CO in
1984. I was tasked with developing and delivering a new sales training curriculum and
derived the theory from concepts presented in the 1977 book Looking Out for Number
One, by Robert J. Ringer). Prospects make a buying decision when the salesperson helps
the buyer discover inherent value in the proposed product or service. When this is done,
the buyer is highly motivated because expectancy theory is being served. Thus, the
bottom line of the WIIFM concept is that people will generally act according to what
outcome is best for them personally.
Many miss the point of expectancy theory when it comes to business networking. Some
social networking participants automatically and blatantly market their products and
services to strangers who are unlucky enough to open network with them. In this
instance, because you have merely connected to them, you have automatically become a
suspect their product or service. Of course, you might not fit as a qualified prospect for
such an offering but no matter theyre goal is to sell you something and away they go!
Not only is such an act inconsistent with expectancy theory but it is also contra to the
most effective sales technique (i.e. solution selling), where one is tasked with discovering
the WIIFM of the prospective customer.
Furthermore, this general broadcast of look at me and see what Im selling does not
jibe with The Law of the Few. Certainly not everyone to whom a person is virtually and
blindly distributing information to is a free connector or a maven. Indeed, most of the
victims of such unwelcome spam are probably outside what is the usual target market for
such products or services. A rational person would understand that blindly marketing to a
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host of unqualified suspects is largely a waste of time. As in the case of the stranger
introduction request, there is certain sense that the stranger is not only minimizing you,
but being disrespectful as well.
As in Milgrams experiment, if the package is being passed from person to person and
you are simply a conduit, are you really willing to pass the package along? In the small
world experiment, the high failure rate suggests that many people evidently were not so
willing.
IV.
Dunbar Number
In 1992, British anthropologist Robin Dunbar suggested that there was a cognitive limit
to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships, that is
relationships in which an individual knows each person and how each person relates to
every other person. The so-called Dunbar number was proposed to lie between 100
and 230 people, with 150 individuals being the most commonly used value. Historically,
in the hunter/gatherer epoch, villages tended to split up (and in the current age,
neighborhoods lose cohesiveness) when they approached the Dunbar number.
Theoretically then, Dunbar acts as kind of speed limit in the building and maintaining
real relationships.
As you read the information above regarding Dunbars number, you might have paused
and thought that such was pure folly. After all, you have hundreds, if not thousands of
friends on social networking sites like Facebook. Yet, Dunbars number even applies to
the virtual world.
An article in the March 2, 2012 edition of Wired magazine tested the Dunbars
applicability to todays social networking. The author, Rick Law, tested in the theory in
his article Dunbars Number Kicked My Ass in Facebook Friends Experiment. Law
believed that while he had 2,000 friends in Facebook and admittedly didnt interact
with them personally, they were still a part of a valid relationship. To prove it, Law
decided to write them a personal note. Upon working his way through approximately
half of his Facebook list, the total lack of responses proved that Dunbars hypothesis
applied even in the Connected Age. Law came to the conclusion that even if you set
aside a chunk of your life specifically to broaden your social capital, you can only
maintain so many friendships. And so many is fewer than 200.
LinkedIn itself offers contradictions in networking. On the one hand, the site urges users
to link only to people you know yet on the other hand, scores users based on how
many contacts they have (up to 500), while automatically searching your email for
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contacts to link to. (This is a contradiction because does anyone actually know every
person from which theyve received an email)?
V.
conclusion to the next step: an acquaintance, or weak tie, might have helped one find a
job, but a strong tie led directly to the weak tie in the first place.
Professor Jacks also points out that networking is a time consuming, dynamic process of
identifying common interest, gaining knowledge and experience of other individuals and
building trust. 1
VI. Its Always Been a Matter of Trust
There is an old saying that trust takes years to build, seconds to destroy, and forever to
repair. Every successful relationship, whether personal or business, depends on trust.
In business, we hedge our trusting relations by signing contracts. However, the law is but
a necessary backstop, placed there to take care of any wrongdoing. But do you really
want to go to court on every contract broken or every promise unfulfilled? Of course not!
Throughout the day, we depend on others on their intentions, their efforts, and their
goodwill. We trust that the airplane mechanics really performed the required
maintenance. We depend upon that the farmer who we trust didnt lace his milk with
arsenic. We trust that the butchers scale isnt rigged. We live within a web of trust and
for society to exist, such must remain intact.
What if there is no trust? Without trust, our world devolves into chaos. For example,
while there are notable exceptions, most drivers obey the traffic laws. (The ones that
dont are usually caught, either by authorities again the law as a backstop or by the
law of averages when they have an accident). So suppose in our commute to work
tomorrow, we note that more drivers are disregarding the traffic laws. They are running
red lights, quickly changing lanes, driving down shoulders, and disregarding speed limits.
Ultimately, if enough people join these scofflaws, traffic would reach a point where
everyone, regardless of their good intentions, would be compelled to cheat in order to
get safely arrive anywhere. Soon there would be traffic anarchy and it would be a world
of every driver for himself. If you dont believe this, try driving in a third world
country where there are seemingly no traffic laws. Furthermore, once we threw away our
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Similarly, in business networking, trust is the coin of the realm. We have to believe that
our contacts are not simply in it for themselves. If you cant trust that the person that you
are networking with, then theres no reason to believe anything that they tell you.
Without trust, there is no relationship.
Trust is violated in networking sites like LinkedIn when a person you connect
automatically considers you a prospect through their mass marketing activity. Such
people simply compile all of their contacts up into one homogenous wad and start selling.
For these folks, LinkedIn just becomes another way of drawing a crowd. If these people
really wanted to sell me something, couldnt they at least explore if there is a need or
desire?
appears that we have to make do with people we really know, or those who know the
people we know.
5. Truly effective social network communication and education seems to depend on the law
of the few, that is, that there are certain individuals in the world who are connectors or
mavens. If these arent people we can know or reach, then well never hit the funnel
that will help our mission to meet more people or gain more information.
6. Those that are most effective in social networking are those that freely give of themselves
in their role as connectors or mavens. These people break the mandates of expectancy
theory. (Though one could argue that they are doing whats best for them because of the
enjoyment they receive by helping others). Even those we are tied loosely to are
seemingly undependable, while our friends of friends might be of more networking
value.
7. There must be a condition of trust among the participants in order for a network to
beneficial for its adherents.
How can we overcome this quandary? How can you find locate the most effective people
if your span of effective networking reach is somewhat limited? How can we depend on
others to do the best thing for us?
VI.
(Note: The term thin numbers is also derived from the phrase Strength in Numbers).
So, how can one maximize the Law of Thin Numbers in business virtual networking? To
do this, we need to build a platform that has certain attributes that truly address the science and
psychology inherent in human nature and networking. We would need to create
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The results of this experiment were eye-opening. The first group achieved an average of
three problems correct. The second group, who had the opportunity to cheat because no
one actually saw their test results, scored an average of 5.5 answers correct. In other
words, they did indeed cheat (because it would be highly unlikely that the second group,
as a whole, was simply smarter than the first random group). The third group, who had
the same opportunity to be untruthful as the second group but who were bound by the
honor code statement, reported to the proctor that they too had achieved three correct
answers the exact same as the control group. What was even more surprising is that
there is no honor code at MIT! Thus the conclusion that Ariely came to was
. . . we learned that people cheat when they have a chance to do so, but they
dont cheat as much as they could. Moreover, once they begin thinking about
honesty whether by recalling the Ten Commandments or signing a simple
statement they stop cheating completely. In other words, when we are removed
from the benchmarks of ethical thought, we tend to stray into dishonesty. But if
we are reminded of morality at the moment that we are tempted, then we are much
more likely to be honest.
The ThinNumbers Code
There is a difference between ThinNumbers and all other groups and organizations and it starts
with an oath, a promise, a pledge, a code. All ThinNumbers associates will sign and be governed
by the Code.
It is the Code, and what it stands for, that separates ThinNumbers from every business networking site.
Yet it is only as good as the honesty and good-faith upon which it is practiced.
The Code is intentionally written in nonspecific terms because to be detailed would make the Code too
unwieldy to live-up-to and administer. However, there are certain ideals that underlie the words:
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treat others in accordance with The Golden Rule, treating others as they would like to be
treated;
acknowledge that the highest aspiration of ThinNumbers is for all to enjoy success and not to
used as a tool for ones own selfish gain alone;
openly connect to other business people around the world through this group, and upon doing so,
consider them important associates; and
take seriously the formal act of nominating and sponsoring like-minded individuals for
association;
be understanding when one associate has to decline to offer assistance.*
overtly marketing a product or services to other associates as this diminishes the relationship and
undermines the trust which is inherent in the organization; and,
not take undue advantage of any assistance offered, and if such is requested or occurs, proper
remuneration shall be offered.
*Note: this might occur when the request would actually adversely affect the provider. Example: Im
bidding on work and you ask me to help you get introduced to the decision-maker for that same job.
Dovetailing LinkedIn and Facebook where the profiles created there are incorporated (but
expanded). I note that LI allows others to attest to another members expertise.
Shouldnt you also be able to claim your own expertise?
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individuals are sorted into communities where their expertise lies. These communities
will be more specialized and limited than LinkedIn Groups, with geographic, industry,
or specialization (or all of the above).
a directory of associates that can be cross-referenced by geography, expertise,
connections, knowledge
a marketplace a summarization of products/services that can be purchased. The idea
would be that every business web site there would be somewhat homogenous deficient
on the hype but more specific detail. (How many times have you gone to a website and
asked what does this company actually do? The standardized website will give a
brief description of each company. A real description and not just fluff).
opinions of products and services that you can believe in because they wont be paid for
a conduit of secure information certified electronic mail
Michael A. LeBrun
Midaire.com
678-906-9062
malebrun@midaire.com
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