INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

The Academy of the Ministry of Finance / Institute for Capacity Development

European and Middle Eastern Division
Course on Macroeconomic Diagnostics (GT15.20)
Tbilisi, Georgia
November 9 - 20, 2015
Reading List
Session
L1

Topic
Domestic Demand
IMF Institute, Output and Aggregate Demand, Chapter 2 in Financial Programming and
Policies. Available on Moodle.
IMF, October 2014, Recent Developments, Prospects, and Policy Priorities, Chapter 1 in
IMF World Economic Outlook, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/c1.pdf
Callen, Tim, 2012, Gross Domestic Product: An Economys All, Finance & Development
Magazine, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/bas ics/gdp.htm
IMF, September 2013, Imbalances and Growth, Update of IMF Staff Sustainability
Assessments for G-20 Mutual Assessment Process
http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/map2013/map2013.pdf
Ramey, Valerie A, 2011, Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?, Journal of
Economic Literature
http://www.econ.ucsd.edu/~vramey/research/JEL_Fiscal_14June2011.pdf

L2

Supply and Productivity

Borio, Claudio, Piti Disyatat and Mikael Juselius, 2013, Rethinking Potential Output:
Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle Bank for International Settlements
Working Paper No.404, http://www.bis.org/publ/work404.pdf
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2009, Projecting Potential Growth: Issues and
Measurement, Special Issue on Potential Output Growth and Output Gap, Vol. 91, No. 4,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/09/07/JulAug09Review.pdf
Field, Alexander, Productivity, in The Conc ise Encyclopedia of Economics, Library of
Economics and Liberty
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Productivity.html

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Session
L2

Topic
Supply and Productivity (continued)
Hausmann, Ricardo, Dani Rodrik, and Andres Velasco, 2005, Getting the Diagnos is Right:
A New Approach to Economic Reform, Finance & Development Magazine,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/03/hausmann.htm
IMF, 2015, Where Are We Headed? Perspectives on Potential Output, Chapter 3 in IMF
World Economic Outlook
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/c3.pdf
Jahan, Sarwat and Saber Mahmud, 2013, What Is the Output Gap?, Finance &
Development Magazine, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/09/basics.htm
Vamvakidis, A., 2009, Convergence in Emerging Europe: Sustainability and
Vulnerabilities, Eastern European Economics, Vol. 47, No. 3, May-June 2009, pp. 5-27
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08181.pdf

L-3

Analyzing Inflation
White, Lawrence, Inflation, in The Conc ise Encyclopedia of Economics, Library of
Economics and Liberty
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Inflation.html
IMF, The Price Level, Inflation, and Exchange Rates, Chapter 3 in Financial Programming
and Policies. Available on Moodle.
Hoover, Kevin, 2008, Phillips Curve, in The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, an easyto-read introduction to the Phillips Curve
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html
Gordon, Robert, 2011, The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation,
Economica, Vol. 78, No. 309, pp 10-50.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00815.x/full
Moccero, Diego, and others, 2011, What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?,
OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 854
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kgdx1jgvtf8-en
Meier, Andr, March 2011,Up or Down, Finance & Development Magazine, Vol. 48, No.
1, explains persistent output gaps and inflation in advanced economies
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2011/03/pdf/Meier.pdf

L-4

Analyzing Monetary Policy

Bernanke, Ben, 2010, Monetary Policy and the Hous ing Bubble, Address at the Annual
Meeting of the American Economic Association, At lanta, Georgia, January 3, 2010
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100103a.pdf
Taylor, John, 2009,The Financ ial Cris is and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analys is of
What Went Wrong, NBER Working Paper No. 14631
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14631.pdf

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Session
L-4

Topic
Analyzing Monetary Policy (continued)
Orphanides, Athanas ios, 2007, Taylor Rules, Federal Reserve Board Finance and
Discussion Series Paper No. 18
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200718/200718abs.html
Blanchard, Olivier , 2013, Monetary policy will never be the same, in VOX CEPRs Policy
Portal
http://www.voxeu.org/article/monetary-policy-will-never-be-same
Miller, Marcus, and Lei Zhang, 2014, "To exit the Great Recession, central banks must adapt
their polic ies and models," in VOX CEPRs Policy Portal
http://www.voxeu.org/article/exit-great-recession-central-banks-must-adapt-their-polic iesand-models
Kool and Tatom, May 1994, "The P-Star Model in Five Small Economies, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis Review, pp. 11-29
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/94/05/Model_May_Jun1994.pdf

L-5

Analyzing Fiscal Policy

IMF, 2013, Structural Fiscal Balances, A helicopter tour of the key fiscal concepts,
application, references, and excel files for estimat ing structural fiscal balances
http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/strfiscbal/
Daniel, James, and others, 2006, Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth, IMF
Pamphlet Series No. 55, Explains the fundamentals of fiscal balance and fiscal adjustment
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/pam/pam55/pam55.pdf
Spilimbergo, Symansky, and Schindler, 2009, Fiscal Multipliers, IMF Staff Pos ition Note
09/11, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0911.pdf
IMF Institute, The Public Sector, Chapter 5 in Financial Programming and Policies.
Available on Moodle.
Horton, Mark, and Asmaa El-Ganainy, 2012, Fiscal Policy: Taking and Giving Away,
Finance & Development Magazine
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/bas ics/fiscpol.htm
Fedelino, Ivanova, and Horton, 2009, Computing Cyclically Adjusted Balances and
Automatic Stabilizers, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department Technical Notes and Manuals
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/tnm/2009/tnm0905.pdf

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Session
L-6

Topic
Fiscal Sustainability
IMF Institute, What is Debt Sustainability Analys is?, Chapter 8 and Fiscal Sustainability,
Chapter 9 in Financial Programming and Policies. Available on Moodle.
IMF, 2015, Debt Sustainability Analys is for Market-Access Countries
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dsa/mac.htm
IMF, 2015, Staff Guidance Note on the Implementation of Public Debt Limits in FundSupported Programs, http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/052715.pdf
International Monetary Fund, 2013, Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability
Analys is in Market-Access Countries
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/050913.pdf
International Monetary Fund, 2013, Unification of Discount Rates Used in External Debt
Analys is for Low Income Countries
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/100413.pdf

L7

Assessing the External Position

Gosh, Atish, and Uma Ramakrishnan, 2012, Current Account Deficits : Is There a
Problem?, Finance & Development Magazine
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/bas ics/current.htm
IMF, 2014, External Assessment in Spec ial Cases
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41004.0
IMF Survey, 2014, New External Assessments Reveal a Mixed Picture
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/res072914a.htm
IMF Institute, The External Sector, Chapter 4 and External Sustainability, Chapter 10 in
Financial Programming and Policies. Available on Moodle.
International Monetary Fund and World Bank, 2012, Revis iting the Debt Sustainability
Framework for Low-Income Countries
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2012/011212.pdf
Araujo, Juliana, and others, 2013, Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and
Capital Scarce Economies, IMF Working Paper 13/80
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1380.pdf
IMF, 2015, Assessing Reserve AdequacySpec ific Proposals
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf

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Session
L8

Topic
Assessing Competitiveness and the Exchange Rate
IMF, 2013, External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology: Technical Background,
The EBA has been developed as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current
accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner
http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/eba/pdf/080913.pdf
IMF Survey, 2014, New External Assessments Reveal a Mixed Picture
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/res072914a.htm
Cato, Luis, 2012, Real Exchange Rates : What Money Can Buy, Finance & Development
Magazine, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/bas ics/realex.htm
Lee and others, 2006, Exchange Rate Assessments: CGER Methodologies , IMF Occasional
Paper No. 261
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2006/110806.pdf
Isard, Peter, 2007, Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies, IMF Working
Paper No. 07/296
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp07296.pdf

L9

Analysis of the Financial System

Allen, Mark, and others, 2002, A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Cris is, IMF
Working Paper No. 02/210
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02210.pdf
IMF, 2003, Financial Soundness Indicators : Background Paper, IMF Board Paper
https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/fsi/eng/2003/051403b.htm
IMF, 2012, Macrofinancial Stress Testing-Princ iples and Practices, Policy Paper
http://www.imf.org/external/pp/longres.aspx?id=4702
Hardy and Schmeider, 2013, Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing, IMF
Working Paper 13/232
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13232.pdf
Haldane, Andrew, 2009, Why Banks Failed the Stress Test, Executive Director for the
UKs Financ ial Stability Unit, Bank of England, Speech at the Marcus-Evans Conference on
Stress-Testing on February 13, 20019
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/speeches/2009/speech374.
pdf
IMF, 2013 , Modification to Current List of Financial Soundness Indicators
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/111313.pdf

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