Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Summer Market Outlook & Forecast
Summer Market Outlook & Forecast
________________________________________
lance@myclarityfinancal.com
281-501-1791
www.realinvestmentadvice.com
POLICIES DO MATTER
Clinton Platform
Anti-Second Amendment
Government Controlled Healthcare
Expand Immigration
Raise Minimum Wage
Pro-Legalization of Marijuana
Supports Climate Change
Legalize Abortion
Pro-LGBT/Transgender Rights
Increase Taxes
Anti-Isreal
Pro-Iran
ISIS No Boots On The Ground
Supports Form Of TPP
Trump Platform
Pro-Second Amendment
Repeal/Replace ObamaCare
Build A Wall/Immigration Reform
U.S. China Trader Reform
Focus On Job Creation
Reform V.A.
Climate Change Is A Hoax
Limit Abortion
Same Sex Marriage State Issue
Lower Tax Rates
Pro-Isreal
Anti-Iran
ISIS No Boots On The Ground
Opposes TPP
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
535
530
525
520
515
510
505
500
495
490
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
730
295
719
290
708
285
696
280
685
275
674
270
663
265
651
260
640
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
570
560
550
540
530
520
510
500
490
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
370
730
360
718
350
705
340
693
330
680
320
668
310
655
300
643
290
630
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
2200.0
4700000
2100.0
4400000
4100000
3800000
1900.0
Market Troubles ?
Fed To The Rescue
With QE4?
1700.0
1600.0
3200000
1500.0
2900000
1400.0
2600000
1300.0
Bernanke Launches QE In
Anticipation Of "Fiscal Cliff"
2300000
2000000
1200.0
1100.0
Market Troubles ?
Fed To The Rescue
1700000
1000.0
900.0
1400000
800.0
Market Troubles ?
Fed To The Rescue
1100000
800000
Jan-08
1800.0
700.0
600.0
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
S&P 500
3500000
2000.0
4500000.0
4.0
3.0
4000000.0
2.0
3500000.0
1.0
3000000.0
0.0
2500000.0
-1.0
2000000.0
-2.0
1500000.0
-3.0
1000000.0
-4.0
500000.0
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Real GDP
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
2% Growth Rate
Jan-15
-5.0
Jan-16
5000000.0
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
382.36%
209.86%
$1.82
Total Percentage Increase In Fed Balance Sheet Total Percentage Increase In S&P 500 (From Low) $'s Of Fed Purchases To Create $1 of S&P Growth
(From Low)
$14.10
382.36%
27.12%
Total Percentage Increase In Fed Balance Total Percentage Increase In GDP (From Low) $'s Of Fed Purchases To Create $1 of GDP
Sheet (From Low)
Growth
$47.16
371.64%
Total Percentage Increase In Fed Balance Sheet
7.88%
Total Percentage Increase In Full-Time
Employment
$22.83
371.64%
16.28%
Total Percentage Increase In Fed Balance Sheet
4096.0
20
Oil Crisis
???
Continental Illinois
15
2048.0
"Dot.Com" Crash
1024.0
Crash of '87
10
Credit Crisis
Asian Contagion/
LTCM
512.0
5
256.0
Orange Country
CA Bankruptcy
0
-5
1976
128.0
64.0
1979
1982
Recessions
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
S&P 500
2015
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
11%
2048
10%
1024
512
9%
8%
7%
256
6%
128
5%
64
4%
3%
1957
32
1962
1967
Recessions
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
70
10
60
5
0
LEI & GDP
40
30
-5
20
-10
10
-15
1974
0
1978
1982
1986
Recessions
LEI - 6 Mth % Change
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Streettalk EOCI
50
Warning: Earnings
10000
65536
8000
16384
6000
8192
4096
4000
2048
2000
1024
0
512
256
-2000
128
-4000
64
-6000
32
1965
1973
1981
1989
1997
2005
2013
2021
2029
2037
2045
2053
2061
Return Gap
Expon. (Projected S&P 500)
32768
Thousands
50
30%
45
40
20%
35
30
15%
25
10%
20
15
5%
10
0%
-5%
0
S&P 500 Real Rolling 20-Year Annualized Returns
CAPE Valuations
CAPE
25%
320000
160000
80000
40000
20000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$100,000 Missing 10 Best Days
2008
8192
30
25
4096
1024
10
512
5
-
256
(5)
128
(10)
64
(15)
32
1/1/2010
1/1/2000
1/1/1990
1/1/1980
1/1/1970
1/1/1960
1/1/1950
1/1/1940
1/1/1930
1/1/1920
1/1/1910
(20)
15
1/1/1900
20
2048
Technology
Industrials
Basic Materials
Basic Materials
Energy
Staples
Energy
Staples
Healthcare
Healthcare
Utilities
Finance
Full Recovery
Market Top
Momentum
Early Recession
Value/Income
Bull Market
Bear Market
Value / Growth
Early Recovery
Contrarian Value
Late Bear Market
Market Bottom
Full Recession
Deep Value/Safety
Deep Value/Safety
Economy
Market
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
Technology
Cylicals
Industrials Materials
Energy
Staples
Healthcare
Utilities
Finance
Technology
Cylicals
Industrials
Materials
Energy
Staples
Healthcare
Utilities
Finance
S&P 500
60/40 Portfolio
Dividends, 20.00%
Bonds, 35.00%
Staples, 10.00%
Other, 60.00%
Healthcare, 10.00%
Utilities, 10.00%
Selected Blue Chips,
10.00%
Cash , 5.00%
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
2000.0
75%
1500.0
50%
1000.0
25%
500.0
2006
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Short-Term Simple MA
2015
2016
Long-Term Simple MA
100%
S&P 500
2500.0
$60k Invested In VFINX (stocks) & $40k in VBTIX (bonds) - Capital Appreciation Only
104000
$102,946.73
103000
$102,564.24
102000
$102,172.89
101000
100000
99000
98000
97000
96000
95000
94000
Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
60/40 Model
Jul-15
S&P Index
$60k Invested In VFINX (stocks) & $40k in VBTIX (bonds) - Capital Appreciation Only
325000
300000
275000
250000
225000
200000
175000
150000
125000
100000
75000
50000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
60/40 Model
22000
9000
20000
8000
18000
7000
16000
6000
14000
5000
12000
4000
1980
source: EIA
10000
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Demand
10000
Supply
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
10000
160
140
9000
120
100
7000
80
60
6000
40
5000
4000
1980
source: EIA
20
Oil Price
Surge
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Oil Price
Supply
8000
REALINVESTMENTADVICE.COM
15.0
2.3
13.0
2.2
2.1
9.0
2.0
7.0
1.9
5.0
1.8
3.0
1.7
1.0
1.6
-1.0
1.5
-3.0
-5.0
1959
1.4
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
Inflation (CPI)
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
Monetary Velocity
11.0
Q&A
Lance Roberts
Chief Investment Strategist
Clarity Financial, LLC
________________________________________
lance@myclarityfinancal.com
281-501-1791
www.realinvestmentadvice.com