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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, July 5, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of June 27, 2016 through July 3, 2016 are among a national sample of 11,486 adults aged 18 and over, including
10,072 registered voters (+/- 1.3%), 2,795 registered Republican voters (+/-2.4%) and 3,248 registered Democratic voters (+/-2.2%).
Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17

Republican
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31

Democrat
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34

Independent
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33

No answer
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2

Strongly disapprove
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

33
30

32
34

34
34

2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
38
36
38
38
40

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
41
42
42
42
39

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
9
9
9
9
9

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
5
5
5
5
4

No
answer
6
7
7
6
8

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?

6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16-5/22
5/9 – 5/15

Hillary Clinton
55
57
56
54
49
47
51
51

Donald Trump
39
36
38
40
44
46
42
43

No answer
6
7
7
6
7
7
7
6

Suppose these were the candidates in the presidential election this November, for whom would you vote?

6/27—7/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
45

Mitt Romney, the
Republican
45

No answer
10

Suppose these were the candidates in the presidential election this November, for whom would you vote?

6/27—7/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
45

Paul Ryan, the
Republican
47

No answer
9

Suppose these were the candidates in the presidential election this November, for whom would you vote?

6/27—7/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
42

John Kasich, the
Republican
50

No answer
9

How would you rate the current state of the U.S. economy?

6/27—7/3

Excellent
2

Good
30

Only Fair
41

Poor
26

No answer
1

Over the next year, do you think the U.S. economy will:
Get better
6/27—7/3

21

Stay about the same
48

Get worse
29

No answer
2

How closely have you been following news about the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, also known as the
Brexit vote?

6/27—7/3

Very closely
22

Somewhat closely
45

Not too closely
22

Not closely at all
11

No answer
1

How worried are you that the United Kingdom leaving the European Union will hurt the United States economy?

6/27—7/3

Very worried
9

Somewhat worried
39

Not too worried
37

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:

6/27—7/3

Offered a
chance to apply
for legal status
66

Deported to the country
they came from
32

No answer
2

Not worried at all
14

No answer
2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of June 27, 2016 through July 3, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 11,486 adults aged 18 and over, including 10,072 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected
from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,
race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to
reflect the demographic composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking
interviews is included. The smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1June 26) of the Weekly Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.2 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.3 percentage point
for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total sample
Total RVs

Unweighted N
11,486
10,072

Plus or minus
1.2
1.3

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

2,795
3,248

2.4
2.2

Male
Female

5,734
5,752

1.6
1.8

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

710
1,361
1,592
2,387
2,768
2,668

4.7
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.4
2.4

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

8,506
944
982
1,054

1.3
4.2
4.3
4.2