Presenters: Harold Moses and Jaya Raj

Date: March 15, 2016

Topic: Revenue forecasting
General Purpose: To inform
Specific Purpose: To provide an overview of some revenue forecasting options to our audience
Thesis: The most efficient forecasting model is both intuitive and empirical and leverages the strengths
of both traditional and dirty indicators (McDonald, 2015)

Introduction
I.

II.
III.

IV.

Introduce presenters and address speaker relevance.

A. You are going to learn about the qualities of 3 types of revenue forecasting models:
i. Traditional
ii. Dirty/Non-traditional
iii. Hybrid
B. You will be able to decide at the end of the presentation which works best for you.
C. You will get an overview of the 3 models, a narrower view, and a conclusion.
Tell audience what inspired you to make a presentation on your topic.
Inform audience of adages about statistics and measurement (2).
A. Impeach the wisdom of the statements.
B. Remind audience about intuitive, innate abilities of the human body.
i. The body can be very strong, for example when lifting up an automobile.
ii. The bones can predict inclement weather, for example aching.
Give a brief overview of the model typologies.
A. Discuss the 3 qualitiesGood, Better, and Best.
B. Differentiate between Validity and Reliability.
C. Discuss the value of In-put processing speed (real-time).
D. Discuss the significance of Error-reduction.
Transition: Next, Jay will walk you through the qualities of each forecasting model.

Body
Slide 5--Present transition slide.
I.

Traditional revenue forecasting methods rely on historical statistical indicators.

Transition: In this section we will focus on GOOD indicators.
Slides 6 & 7--Present transition slides What are data and indicators?
A. DATA and INDICATORS are the two key ingredients in analytics and forecasting.
B. What is an indicator?
i. Indicators measure inputs, process, outputs and outcomes.

2
ii. Within these indicators are the traditional indicators like gross domestic product,
unemployment rates, company revenue, stock markets, and the like.
iii. These indicators are good but not the best because they fail to judge the current
realities and they assume a degree of consistent operating environment.
Slide 8--Present transition slide.
C. Does this mean there is a better way to look at our data?
D. We should not overlook the Dirty indicators.
Slide 9--Present transition slide.
II.

Non-traditional indicators use factors which are short term.

A. Alan Greenspan, who served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States
from 1987 to 2006, used the Cardboard box index to monitor economic fluctuations.
B. Men buy fewer BOXER (shorts) during tough economic times.
Slide 10--Present transition slide.
C. They are more intuitive and at the same time help reduce forecasting errors.
Transition: Now I am going to discuss the best model, which is the hybrid model.
Slides 11 & 12--Present transition slides.

III.

Dirty-hybrid model uses both traditional and non-traditional indicators.

A. Mc Donald conducted this case study of Seattle where he identified the dirty indicators
for that city.
B. Mc Donald measured and established the dirty indicators.
C. Mc Donald concluded that the best model would be one that complemented the
traditional measures using non-traditional indicators.
Transition: And thus, we have provided you with a description of the three revenue
forecasting models that Mc Donald investigated.

Conclusion
On that note, we conclude by saying, while the traditional revenue forecasting model is adequate, IF
YOU REALLY WANT TO MAKE YOUR MARK AND SET YOU AND YOUR COMPANY APART, YOU SHOULD
NOW BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND THAT
The most efficient forecasting model is both intuitive and empirical and leverages the
strengths of both the traditional & dirty indicators.
Thanks for listening.

References
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www.forbes.com/.../meeting-the-big-data-challenge-dont-be-objective
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http://www.economist.com/node/12995765
Ginn, J. (2011). Boxes, babies & MBAS: Economic indicators from the town square. Retrieved from
www.csg.org/.../EconomicIndicators.aspx
Mc Donald, B.D. (2015). A dirty approach to efficient revenue forecasting. Journal of Public and Nonprofit Administration, I(I),1.
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