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มีความสุขกับหุ้นปันผล by หมีส้ม เล่ม 4 (small file)
มีความสุขกับหุ้นปันผล by หมีส้ม เล่ม 4 (small file)
1|P a ge
. ,
.
, , ,
..
2|P a ge
( )
12
15
22
7 (Finance costs)
26
29
32
10
37
11
39
12
41
13
44
14
46
15
48
16
51
17
55
18
57
3|P a ge
by 4
4
..
( )
by 4
"
5 2557
4|P a ge
( )
(
)
5,000 - 10,000
..
30% - 50%
5-10
30-50%
( ) 1
5|P a ge
..
6|P a ge
..
..
7 ..
..
+
1
( )
2 , 0.50 0.20
+ + 0.30 3
( )
400 100 500
3 + 500
7
500 7-3 4
500 125 ..
100 200 8000
200 40 (
) 60
400 (100 + 200 + 40 + 60)
3 +
900
500 + 400 )
900 / 4 = 225
226 ..
7|P a ge
6-10 4
55 .. !!
2 1
()
..
..
8|P a ge
2
!! ..
..
..
500
1,500
100
1500/100 15
300 1500/300 5
500 .. 1500/500 3
(Capacity) 500
600 2 3,000
3000/600 5
500
500 500
300
..
( )
(
) Pattern
..
9|P a ge
300
400 300 400
401
(
300 300 1 (400 /
3-4 (400 /
100
300
100 )
25-50%
50-70% (
)
10 | P a g e
..
11 | P a g e
30,000
12,000 18,000
..
12,000
1,000 11,000
31,000 (20,000+11,000)
( 20,000 ) ( )
11,000
(Selling, General and administrative expense SG&A)
(Depreciation)
..
( Gross
profit margin)
2
..
(
)
..
()
300 2
2 300 (
1 2 300 400 )
Canibalization
3-4 2
(Price Discremination)
13 | P a g e
300
250
300 ( 100 )
300 2
100
200
Capacity (
)
...
.. ..
14 | P a g e
15 | P a g e
2 5 3
600 200
300
100
300
2 3
900 600 1,500
500 ..
20-50%
( .. 35-40%
100 40 )
()
( )
( )
3 A B C
% 30% A 40%
16 | P a g e
A
A B C A ..
(Cost of complex)
( )
..
Earning Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA)
www.set.or.th
..
( )
17 | P a g e
18 | P a g e
19 | P a g e
20 30 ..
VI
..
EBITDA
(
)
EBITDA
EBITDA
Economy of scale 2,000,000 start up cost 500,000
4,000,000
5-20%
Economy of scale
5 200 5
2,000 2 7 10 (1,000%)
40% 10
10 15
2
20 | P a g e
EBITDA % EBITDA
Turnaround ( Turn )
..
EBITDA
..
21 | P a g e
20,000,000 (50 )
10,000,000
50
15 5 5
..
5 5
( 5 5 7 )
18 10 3,000,000 30,000,000
6,000,000 ( 30,000,000 / 5 )
8,000,000 2,000,000 5
8,000,000
15
10 11
(
)
2-3
1
2
7-10 25 710
P/BV 1-2
23 | P a g e
P/BV 7 P/E 25
4-5
(
)
3
..
..
(
71.85 ( 173.50
40% ) ..
24 | P a g e
25 | P a g e
7 (Finance costs)
(Finance costs)
5 EBITDA
( )
2-3
100 100 70 30
100
20% ( 100
20 ) 8% 12% (20%-8%)
..
2540 .. 2540
50,000 50,000
( 1 )
8-15%
(
26 | P a g e
)
( )
1,000
25 1 25,000
25,000 25 1 50
1 500
EBITDA
( )
2540
( )
back to back
(
)
. .
27 | P a g e
(
)
..
28 | P a g e
Seasonal
(
)
()
30 | P a g e
7
( )
200 190 1.45
..
.. !!
(Return on Equity - ROE) (Return on Asset - ROA) ..
31 | P a g e
32 | P a g e
Receivable Turnover),
33 | P a g e
2540
( )
by
2
5 () 7
2
15% 8%
1 (
5 4 ) 2 7
( )
6
2 7 (
)
10% 8%
ROE 10% ROE 1-2%
(
)
10
34 | P a g e
Debt on Equity ratio (D/E Ratio)
(Debt on Equity ratio - D/E Ratio) = (Debt) / (Equity)
2,000,000
1,000,000 ( 3,000,000 ) D/E 2 (2,000,000 / 1,000,000)
3,000,000 1
300,000 ROA 10%
150,000 ROA 5%
3,000,000 1,000,000
2,000,000 8%
160,000 (8% 2,000,000
300,000 140,000 ROA 4.7% (140,000/3,000,000) 2
100,000 ( 150,000
160,000 )
( ROA )
ROE
(
)
(
)
35 | P a g e
..
36 | P a g e
10
1 9
..
()
(Gross profit) (SG&A)
..
( ) (
)
9
37 | P a g e
38 | P a g e
11
100,000
() 50,000 1 200,000
350,000
2,000,000
(100,000 ) 1,900,000 30
2,250,000 1,900,000
350,000
15,000 ( )
20,000 - 25,000
20,000 - 25,000 15,000
5,000 20,000
10,000
() 50,000 ..
3 ,
10
100,000 1,000,000
70,000 700,000
30,000 Initial Public Offeriing (IPO) 15
( 10 15 )
30,000 450,000
1,150,000 (700,000+450,000)
39 | P a g e
1,150,000
, ,
( )
( )
( )
(
)
= -
by
1
..
40 | P a g e
12
2 (
)
( )
(
), ( ),
( )
( )
( )
100,000
80%
( )
( )
41 | P a g e
A (
www.set.or.th)
1. 1,000,000
1,000,000 ()
2. 500,000
www.set.or.th
website
200,000
( www.dbd.go.th
)
3. 200,000 (
) 100,000
4. 500,000 20%
100,000
5. 10,000,000
() 0 A
5,000,000
42 | P a g e
1,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
500,000
100,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
12,200,000
6,400,000
12,200,000
6,400,000
(
)
(
)
( Exit )
2-5 ( 2 5
..
43 | P a g e
13
2
1 ( 1 )
( ) ,
1
(
)
..
..
12% ( 7-10%
12% ) 1%
60
1 1 30 1
60 90
3 30 3 ..
2.4% 3 0.6%
44 | P a g e
3% ( 1% 3 )
( SMEs) 1,000,000
30,000
90
60
150 (90 + 60 ) ..
..
() -
( ) 2531-2537
7-10%
15% LPG
60
1-2
(
)
,
..
45 | P a g e
14
..
..
..
1 2
46 | P a g e
..
47 | P a g e
15
...
3
2
1
(
) ,
2
3
( )
1
2
( 2-3
48 | P a g e
) 3
..
( ) ( )
()
( )
()
..
EBITDA 100
( ) 120
20 (100 - 120 )
120 200,000
10,000 20 20,000
30,000 25,000
5,000 ( 30,000 ) 5,000
( 5,000
49 | P a g e
( )
50 | P a g e
16
..
51 | P a g e
() -8.91
- ()
238.39 238.39
52 | P a g e
!!!
()
50.30
( 3) ( )
71.30 50.30 21 (71.30 - 50.30)
3
,
(
)
-222.08
-8.91 209.99
(-222.08) + (-8.91) + (209.99) = 21.00
21
-85.55
() -44.05
-41.49 -85.55
-88.55 (
)
-85.55
23.24
-222.08 8.91 (
) 238
209.99
..
53 | P a g e
190.65
201.85 -201.85
( ) -115.21
..
..
54 | P a g e
17
2-3
1
()
( SG&A)
2
..
3 1
(
), 2
( )
(monopoly) (oligopoly)
3
55 | P a g e
3
A 200,000
190,000 10,000
10,000
(
)
..
56 | P a g e
18
..
3
, ..
()
)
1
()
()
()
3
..
( by 4 )
57 | P a g e