TABLE A.5.

ITALY, 1998 REVISION

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

120

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.5 (continued)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

121

TABLE A.6. ITALY, MIGRATION REPLACEMENT SCENARIOS

ITALY
Scenario
Period

I
Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

A. Average annual net migration (thousands)

1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050

70
34
16
8
4
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

75
127
193
236
255
256
260
269
289
309
318

203
266
179
341
335
456
613
581
507
268
173

0
0
0
404
886
1 203
1 744
1 482
1 117
149
32

1 261
1 402
757
1 362
1 146
1 886
3 267
3 892
4 132
2 740
2 094

660

12 944

19 610

35 088

119 684

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

57 338
57 298
56 780
55 782
54 448
52 913
51 270
49 533
47 671
45 642
43 460
41 197

57 338
56 950
56 267
55 200
53 840
52 303
50 679
48 962
47 122
45 116
42 959
40 722

57 338
56 950
56 267
55 200
55 943
59 189
64 383
72 808
80 443
86 463
87 419
87 345

57 338
63 477
70 487
74 207
80 939
86 764
96 664
114 329
136 391
160 856
178 891
193 518

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

39 234
38 721
37 781
37 015
35 576
34 061
32 026
29 365
26 773
24 432
22 946
21 875

39 234
38 486
37 439
36 630
35 179
33 669
31 659
29 026
26 464
24 147
22 681
21 623

39 234
38 486
37 439
36 630
36 671
38 560
41 401
45 990
50 209
53 706
54 607
55 074

39 234
43 139
47 661
50 477
55 064
59 072
65 358
76 176
89 650
104 784
116 546
126 808

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

4.08
3.72
3.37
3.19
2.90
2.67
2.39
2.04
1.76
1.55
1.50
1.52

Grand total 1995-2050

B. Total population (thousands)

57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338
57 338

57 338
58 000
58 767
58 783
59 393
59 902
61 064
63 104
65 066
66 630
66 846
66 395

C. Age group 15-64 (thousands)

39 234
38 762
38 208
38 174
37 715
37 332
36 506
35 101
33 799
32 790
32 675
32 985

39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234
39 234

D. Potential support ratio 15-64/65 or older

122

4.08
3.72
3.37
3.19
2.90
2.68
2.40
2.04
1.76
1.55
1.50
1.52

4.08
3.74
3.43
3.30
3.06
2.91
2.69
2.37
2.13
1.97
1.96
2.03

4.08
3.78
3.50
3.37
3.16
3.02
2.84
2.59
2.39
2.24
2.22
2.25

4.08
3.72
3.37
3.19
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00

4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08
4.08

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

TABLE A.6 (continued)

ITALY
Scenario

Period

Medium
variant

II
Medium
variant with
zero migration

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

9 621
10 412
11 213
11 609
12 286
12 733
13 373
14 415
15 249
15 745
15 303
14 377

9 621
10 349
11 113
11 487
12 150
12 586
13 218
14 249
15 074
15 566
15 128
14 211

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

16.8
18.2
19.7
20.8
22.6
24.1
26.1
29.1
32.0
34.5
35.2
34.9

16.8
18.2
19.7
20.8
22.6
24.1
26.1
29.1
32.0
34.5
35.2
34.9

1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

8 483
8 165
7 785
7 157
6 586
6 119
5 871
5 754
5 650
5 466
5 211
4 945

8 483
8 116
7 716
7 083
6 512
6 048
5 802
5 687
5 585
5 403
5 150
4 888

III
Constant
total
population

IV
Constant
age group
15-64

V
Ratio 15-64/65+
not less than 3.0

VI
Constant ratio
15-64/65 years
or older

E. Age group 65 or older (thousands)

9 621
10 362
11 155
11 578
12 310
12 837
13 586
14 780
15 839
16 661
16 647
16 230

9 621
10 386
11 212
11 651
12 417
12 984
13 817
15 167
16 442
17 509
17 690
17 444

9 621
10 349
11 113
11 487
12 224
12 853
13 800
15 330
16 736
17 902
18 202
18 358

9 621
10 578
11 687
12 377
13 502
14 485
16 026
18 679
21 983
25 694
28 578
31 094

16.8
17.9
19.1
19.8
20.9
21.7
22.6
24.0
25.3
26.3
26.5
26.3

16.8
18.2
19.7
20.8
21.9
21.7
21.4
21.1
20.8
20.7
20.8
21.0

16.8
16.7
16.6
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.6
16.3
16.1
16.0
16.0
16.1

8 483
8 380
8 320
7 898
7 741
7 683
8 013
8 703
9 390
9 887
9 922
9 717

8 483
8 116
7 716
7 083
7 048
7 776
9 181
11 488
13 498
14 855
14 610
13 913

8 483
9 760
11 140
11 353
12 373
13 207
15 280
19 474
24 758
30 379
33 767
35 615

F. Percentage in age group 65 or older

16.8
18.1
19.5
20.2
21.5
22.4
23.7
25.8
27.6
29.1
29.0
28.3

G. Age group 0-14 (thousands)

8 483
8 214
7 976
7 586
7 313
7 169
7 246
7 458
7 700
7 887
8 016
8 124

H. Potential support ratio in 2050, by age at entry into non-working-age population

Age
65
70
75
80

1.52
2.08
3.06
5.26

1.52
2.08
3.06
5.26

2.03
2.81
4.13
7.06

2.25
3.11
4.59
7.85

3.00
4.17
6.08
10.18

4.08
5.83
8.94
15.86

NOTE: The six scenarios can be described briefly as follows:

I Corresponds to the medium variant of the official United Nations population projections (World Population Prospects, 1998 Revision).
II This scenario amends the medium variant by assuming no migration after 1995.
III This scenario keeps the total population figure constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
IV This scenario keeps the number of persons aged 15-64 constant at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995.
V This scenario prevents the ratio of persons aged 15-64 to persons aged 65 and above from falling below 3.0.
VI This scenario keeps the ratio of persons aged 15-64 and above at the highest level that it would reach in the absence of migration after 1995
This scenario is considered to be demographically unrealistic.

United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

123