NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of July 4, 2016 through July 10, 2016 are among a national sample of 7,869 registered voters (+/- 1.4%), 2,059
registered Republican voters (+/-2.8%) and 2,634 registered Democratic voters (+/-2.5%). Complete error estimates can be found in
the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
22
21
21
23
12
12
13
13
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
8
9
9
7
7
7
7
6
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
13
13
15
14
17
17
15
16
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
29
31
28
29
37
35
36
36
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
9
8
9
9
10
11
10
12
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2—5/8
4/25—5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
27
28
30
30
29
27
27
27
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
22
22
22
21
22
24
23
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
12
11
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16—5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24

Republican
27
28
28
28
28
29
28
29
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28

Democrat
33
34
35
34
35
35
33
34
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34

Independent
38
37
36
36
36
36
37
35
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36

No answer
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1

Strongly disapprove
38
38
35
37
36
37
37
36
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

31
33
30

34
32
34

33
34
34

2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16 – 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
32
33
32
32
33
33
32
31
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
26
26
29
28
28
26
28
29
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
39
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16– 5/22
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
47
48
49
48
49
48
47
47
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
44
43
41
42
42
44
45
43
45
44

No
answer
10
9
10
10
9
9
8
9
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates for whom would you vote?

7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
6/2—6/5

Donald
Trump, the
Republican
38
38
36
38
38
40

Gary
Johnson,
the
Libertarian
11
9
9
9
9
9

Hillary
Clinton, the
Democrat
40
41
42
42
42
39

Jill Stein,
the
Green
Party
6
5
5
5
5
4

No
answer
6
6
7
7
6
8

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?

7/4—7/10
6/27—7/3
6/20—6/26
6/13—6/19
6/6—6/12
5/30—6/5
5/23—5/29
5/16-5/22
5/9 – 5/15

Hillary Clinton
57
55
57
56
54
49
47
51
51

Donald Trump
36
39
36
38
40
44
46
42
43

No answer
7
6
7
7
6
7
7
7
6

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton?

7/4—7/10
5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
15
17

Somewhat
favorable
23
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
14
14

Strongly
unfavorable
46
45

No
answer
2
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?

7/4—7/10
6/6—6/12
5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
14
15
14

Somewhat
favorable
22
22
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
13
12
13

Strongly
unfavorable
49
49
49

No
answer
2
2
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Bernie Sanders?

7/4—7/10
5/9—5/15

Strongly
favorable
22
23

Somewhat
favorable
30
33

Somewhat
unfavorable
21
20

Strongly
unfavorable
24
23

No
answer
3
2

Which of the following would you like to see Bernie Sanders do about his campaign for President?

7/4—7/10
6/6—6/12

Stay in the race through
the Democratic
convention in July
53
52

Drop out of
the race
now
42
46

No answer
5
2

Do you think Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy?

7/8—7/10

Yes
31

No
66

No answer
3

Do you think it was appropriate for Hillary Clinton to use a personal email address and server for work while she was Secretary of
State?

7/8—7/10

Yes, it was
appropriate
15

No, it was not
appropriate
82

No answer
3

FBI Director James Comey has officially recommended that Hillary Clinton not be prosecuted for using a personal email server
while serving as Secretary of State. Do you agree or disagree with this recommendation?

7/8—7/10

Agree

Disagree

No answer

41

56

3

Who do you think can do a better job unifying the country?

7/8—7/10

Hillary
Clinton
49

Donald Trump
43

No answer
8

How serious a problem do you think racial discrimination against blacks is in this country?

7/8—7/10

Extremely serious
27

Very serious
25

Somewhat
serious
25

Not so serious
16

Not serious at all
6

No answer
1

How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to race relations in this country?

7/8—7/10

Extremely
confident
7

Very confident
12

Somewhat
confident
20

Not so confident
14

Not confident at
all
46

No answer
2

How confident are you in Barack Obama’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to race relations in this country?

7/8—7/10

Extremely
confident
18

Somewhat
confident
16

Very confident
19

Not so confident

Not confident at
all
35

11

No answer
1

How confident are you in Hillary Clinton’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to race relations in this country?

7/8—7/10

Extremely
confident
11

Somewhat
confident
19

Very confident
17

Not so confident

Not confident at
all
35

16

No answer
1

In general, do you think the police in most communities are…

7/8—7/10

More likely to use deadly
force against a black
person
46

More likely to use
deadly force against
a white person
2

Race doesn’t affect use of
deadly force
50

No answer
2

Do you approve or disapprove of the Black Lives Matter movement?

7/8—7/10

Strongly
approve
21

Somewhat
approve
24

Somewhat
disapprove
15

Strongly disapprove
27

Don’t know
enough to say
13

No answer
1

How much, if at all, have you heard about the fatal police shootings of two black men – one in Baton Rouge, Louisiana and
another near St. Paul, Minnesota?

7/8—7/10

A lot
58

Some
27

Only a little
10

Nothing at all
3

No answer
1

How much, if at all, have you heard about the recent shootings in Dallas, Texas that killed and injured police officers?

7/8—7/10

A lot
67

Some
23

Only a little
7

Nothing at all
1

From what you have seen or heard, was the police shooting in Louisiana…

7/8—7/10

Justified
9

Not justified
40

Don’t know
enough to say
49

No answer
2

From what you have seen or heard, was the police shooting in Minnesota…

7/8—7/10

Justified
8

Not justified
44

Don’t know
enough to say
47

No answer
2

No answer
1

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of July 4, 2016 through July 10, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 7,869 adults aged 18 and over who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly
three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education,
region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic
composition of the United States. An additional smoothing parameter for ideology based on previous Election Tracking interviews is included. The
smoothing parameter was derived from aggregated data on ideology by region collected from previous weeks (May 1-June 26) of the Weekly
Election Tracking poll.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.4 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Total RVs
Total RVs July 8-10 questions

Unweighted N
7,869
3,422

Plus or minus
1.4
2.2

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

2,059
2,634

2.8
2.5

Republican RVs July 8-10 questions
Democrat RVs July 8-10 questions

883
1,145

4.5
3.8

Male
Female

4,044
3,825

1.9
2.1

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

430
852
1,138
1,689
2,029
1,731

6.0
4.3
3.7
3.0
2.7
3.0

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

5,933
634
627
675

1.6
5.1
5.1
5.3

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