THEORY OF DIVERSIONARY WAR

(OAKS)
Why did Argentina decide to declare war and attempt to reclaim the
islands?
Timing: why April 1982?
- Domestic unrest is necessary for a diversionary conflict
- Domestic unrest: openly expressed public dissatisfaction with the
performance of the government
- Domestic unrest is a challenge to the legitimacy, capacity, and even
the existence of a state
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PURPOSE OF DIVERSIONARY WAR

distract attention of the public from social, political, or economic issues
at home
rally-around-the-flag effect: rally the populace behind the government
by whipping up nationalist sentiment
shift blame for domestic political, economic, or social problems to an
external scapegoat
demonstrate governments competence in foreign policy after series of
domestic policy failures
What makes a war a diversionary war: leaders motivation to use force.
Even if the war fails / ends badly, it can still have a favorable policy
response
GOVERNMENT DECISION MAKING
Government can respond to domestic unrest in a variety of ways:
cooperate with the opposition, repression, etc.
SOunder what conditions will they initiate a diversionary conflict?
(PICTURE)
STATE EXTRACTIVE CAPACITY & POLICY OPTIONS
- How a leader responds to domestic unrest is constrained by their
ability to extract required resources from society (e.g. money to pay for
expensive policies, such as war, economic reforms, or state repression)
- If a state has high extractive capacity, it can pay for a lot of policy
options (e.g. squash the unrest, pay off opposition, invest in the
economy)
Blainey: wars cant break out when a country is experiencing financial
hardships, because this country would be incapable of financing the
war.
Oaks: if diversionary war is your only policy option, it might not seem
so bad.
PARADOX (Think about the Falkland Island War: Argentina v. UK)

- Start by posturing or showing of force (Argentina), and you might find

yourself in a protracted large scale conflict (the UK strikes back)
- Paradox: low extractive capacity states get propelled towards conflict
while discouraging them from fighting wars

CASE STUDY: ARGENTINA

ARGENTINE DOMESTIC POLITICS
Leopoldo Galtieri becomes president on December 22, 1981
Facing economic collapse
Argentine government (the Junta) attempted to reverse the economic
decline by devaluing the peso
RESULT: Massive inflation
Value of peso fell from 4,200 to 7,800 peso-to-USD from June to July
1981
Public discontent due to inflation
Reestablishment of the General Federation of Labor
Strikes
Businesses openly criticize government
Catholic Church distances from the government
Mothers from wars gathered in protest
Government was already under international pressure for human rights
abuses
Several political parties that existed before military rule reorganize and
founded the multipartidario
Argentine press abandoned the tacit agreement to not openly criticize
government
JUNTAS PREFERENCES
What was the Juntas policy option tradeoff?
Why did they choose diversionary war instead of oppressing unrest of
co-opting opposition?
Juntas Initial Strategy: discussed possibility of liberalizing the political
system and democratic rule; reviving national economy
HOWEVER, Argentina has LOW EXTRACTIVE CAPACITY = inability to
implement the initial strategy
inability to raise tax revenue due to: tax evasion, inefficient tax
administration, rampant inflation
failed attempts to find other sources of revenue: selling public owned
businesses (not enough to makeup revenue downfall), loans (couldnt
pay back debt)
RESULT: unable to make meaningful economic reforms no higher
wages for state employees, no reduction in unemployment, unable to
increase social spending
Although the government used police to control isolated
demonstrations and strikes, repression on a large scale for a long
period is too costly (also the fear of large scale popular revolt)

Why did the Junta choose to invade the Falkland Islands?

Underestimated British willingness to fight
Argentina only sent 1,400 troops with the best trained troops kept at
the border with Chile
Admiral in charge was told to send all but 500 troops back to Argentina
immediately after the invasion
Junta thought the US would be neutral (US extended military aid to UK)

IMPORTANT PLACES / TERMS

British troops land at San Carlos on East Falkland
British recaptures Goose Green
Argentine positions overlooking Port Stanley taken
New Argentine president: Raul Alfosin

RESULT
The islands remain British territory. However, in 2013, Argentine
president Christina Kirchner reasserted Argentinas claim over the
islands at the UN. British response: self-determination
March 2013: British referendum, voted to keep the islands as UK
territory