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  • Scenario Analysis: Base Case

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    The document provides scenario analysis for a proposed project including base case, best case, worst case, and sensitivity analysis. Key details include an initial cost of $29 million, production of 400 units, variable costs of $1300 per unit, and fixed costs of $200,000. The analysis calculates NPV for each scenario at a 15% discount rate over 13 years. The base case NPV is $8.56 million. The best case has the highest NPV at $29.69 million while the worst case has a negative NPV of -$14.76 million.

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    The document provides scenario analysis for a proposed project including base case, best case, worst case, and sensitivity analysis. Key details include an initial cost of $29 million, production of 400 units, variable costs of $1300 per unit, and fixed costs of $200,000. The analysis calculates NPV for each scenario at a 15% discount rate over 13 years. The base case NPV is $8.56 million. The best case has the highest NPV at $29.69 million while the worst case has a negative NPV of -$14.76 million.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    3 views54 pages

    Scenario Analysis: Base Case

    Uploaded by

    AyexhaAxif
    The document provides scenario analysis for a proposed project including base case, best case, worst case, and sensitivity analysis. Key details include an initial cost of $29 million, production of 400 units, variable costs of $1300 per unit, and fixed costs of $200,000. The analysis calculates NPV for each scenario at a 15% discount rate over 13 years. The base case NPV is $8.56 million. The best case has the highest NPV at $29.69 million while the worst case has a negative NPV of -$14.76 million.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 54

    Scenario Analysis

    Annual
    13
    13
    13

    Base Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    400
    4000
    1300
    200000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    6,240,000
    -814320

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    5,425,680
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital

    10,625,680
    300,000

    After tax Salvage Value


    Net Operating Cash Flow
    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    8,559,611

    10,625,680
    9239721.73913044

    Best Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    460
    4600
    1105
    170000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    27,508,000
    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    11,729,642
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    16,929,642

    Net Operating Cash Flow

    300,000

    -28,700,000

    16,929,642

    Present value of future cash flows


    Net Present Value

    -28,700,000
    29,691,469

    14721427.7826087

    Worst Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    340
    3400
    1495
    230000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13
    0

    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    15,028,000
    -6607900
    -2990000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    230,100
    -1760458.05

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    -1,530,358
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    3,669,642

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    -14,758,108

    3,669,642
    3190993

    Sensitivity Analysis
    Best Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    460
    4600
    1105
    170000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    27,508,000
    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    11,729,642
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    16,929,642

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    Worst Case

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    29,691,469

    16,929,642
    14721427.7826087

    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    340
    3400
    1495
    230000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    15,028,000
    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    1,010,100
    -131818.05

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    878,282
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    6,078,282

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    -6,683,973

    Best Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy

    29,000,000
    400

    6,078,282
    5285462.56521739

    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    4600
    1105
    170000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    23,920,000
    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    10,764,000
    -1404702

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    9,359,298
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    14,559,298

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    21,745,708

    Worst Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation

    29,000,000
    400
    3400
    1495
    230000
    5200000

    14,559,298
    12660259.1304348

    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    17,680,000
    -7774000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    2,496,000
    -325728

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    2,170,272
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    7,370,272

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    2,024,643

    Best Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate

    29,000,000
    400
    4000
    1105
    200000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305

    7,370,272
    6408932.17391305

    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    20,800,000
    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    7,644,000
    -997542

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    6,646,458
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    11,846,458

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    12,651,848

    Worst Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital

    29,000,000
    400
    4000
    1495
    200000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000

    11,846,458
    10301267.826087

    Annually

    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    20,800,000
    -7774000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    5,616,000
    -732888

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    4,883,112
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    10,083,112

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    6,740,839

    Best Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    400
    4000
    1300
    170000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    10,083,112
    8767923.47826087

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    6,630,000
    -865215

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    5,764,785
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    10,964,785

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    9,696,343

    10,964,785
    9534595.65217391

    Worst Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    400
    4000
    1300
    230000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2990000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    5,850,000
    -763425

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    5,086,575
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    10,286,575

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    7,422,878

    10,286,575
    8944847.82608696

    Break even Analysis


    Accounting Break even
    Q

    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    2000

    29,000,000
    2000
    4000
    1300
    200000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    104,000,000
    -33800000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    62,400,000
    -814320

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    61,585,680
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow

    66,785,680

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    -29,000,000
    -29,000,000
    194,875,958

    66,785,680
    58074504.3478261

    Cash Break even Analysis


    Initial Cost
    Quantity
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    74.0740740741
    4000
    1300
    200000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost

    -29,000,000

    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    3,851,852
    -1251851.85185185
    -2600000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    -5,200,000
    814320

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    -4,385,680
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Net Operating Cash Flow
    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    814,320
    -29,000,000
    -29,000,000
    -26,270,273

    814,320
    708104.347826087

    Financial Break even Analysis


    Working
    PV(A)
    A

    Initial Cost
    Quantity
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Discount Rate
    Annually

    29,000,000
    241201
    4000
    1300
    200000
    5800000
    15%
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    A[1-(1/(1+i)^5)/i
    384495600.950414

    -29,000,000
    12,542,452,000
    -4076296900
    -2600000
    -5800000

    Net Income
    Depreciation
    Net Operating Cash Flow
    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value

    8,457,755,100
    5800000
    -29,000,000
    -29,000,000
    28,342,149,376

    8,463,555,100
    7359613130.43478

    Systametic Analysis
    Beta
    Debt
    Equity
    Tax Rate

    Beta Assets

    1
    30%
    70%
    13.05%

    1.1330225075

    Base Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    400
    4000
    1300
    200000
    4800000
    5,000,000
    0.1305
    5000000
    5000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    6,240,000
    -814320

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    5,425,680
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    10,625,680

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value
    Internal rate of Return

    300,000

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    9,553,964
    27.57%

    10,625,680
    9239721.73913044

    Best Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    20,100,000
    400
    4000
    1300
    200000
    3220000
    4,000,000
    0.1205
    4000000
    4000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation
    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    -20,100,000
    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000
    6,240,000
    -814320

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    5,425,680
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    10,625,680

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value
    Internal rate of Return

    300,000

    -19,800,000
    -19,800,000
    17,956,787

    10,625,680
    9239721.73913044

    47.44%

    Worst Case
    Initial Cost
    Quantitiy
    Price
    Variable cost
    Fixed cost
    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually

    29,000,000
    400
    4000
    1300
    200000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    300,000
    13

    0
    Initial Cost
    Revenue
    Expenses
    Variable Cost
    Fixed Cost
    Depreciation

    -29,000,000
    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    EBIT
    Tax @ 12.05%

    6,240,000
    -814320

    Net Income
    Depreciation

    5,425,680
    5200000

    Operating Cash Flow


    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage Value

    10,625,680
    300,000

    Net Operating Cash Flow


    Present value of future cash flows
    Net Present Value
    Internal rate of Return

    -28,700,000
    -28,700,000
    8,559,611
    26.56%

    10,625,680
    9239721.73913044

    IRR

    25%
    50%
    30%

    15.41%
    14.76%
    14.09%

    1.05

    S.D

    0.0336037633

    Lease Valuation
    Initial Cost
    Lease Payment

    Depreciation
    Salvage Value
    Tax Rate
    Book Value
    After Tax salvage value
    Discount Rate
    working capital
    Annually
    Adjusted discount rate

    29,000,000
    125000
    5200000
    3,000,000
    0.1305
    3000000
    3000000
    15%
    200,000
    13
    0.130425
    0

    Initial Cost
    Lease Payment
    Tax Shield on lease Payment
    Tax shied on Depreciation
    Working Capital
    After tax Salvage value

    29,000,000
    -1625000
    16312.5
    200,000

    -1625000
    16312.5
    -678600

    Operating Cash Flow

    27,591,313

    -2287287.5

    Present value of Future cash flows

    27,591,313

    -2023387.22162019

    Net Present Value

    18,909,347
    As lease NPV is Positive, so we will accept it.

    Tax Rate

    scenario
    13.05%
    13.05%
    13.05%

    Best case
    Base Case
    worst case
    Economic condition would be change by

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680
    8034540.64272212

    10,625,680
    6986557.08062793

    10,625,680
    6075267.02663298

    27,508,000

    27,508,000

    27,508,000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    11,729,642
    5200000

    11,729,642
    5200000

    11,729,642
    5200000

    16,929,642

    16,929,642

    16,929,642

    16,929,642

    16,929,642

    16,929,642

    12801241.5500945

    11131514.3913865

    9679577.73164047

    15,028,000

    15,028,000

    15,028,000

    -6607900
    -2990000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2990000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2990000
    -5200000

    230,100
    -1760458.05

    230,100
    -1760458.05

    230,100
    -1760458.05

    -1,530,358
    5200000

    -1,530,358
    5200000

    -1,530,358
    5200000

    3,669,642

    3,669,642

    3,669,642

    3,669,642
    2774776.52173913

    3,669,642
    2412849.14933838

    3,669,642
    2098129.69507685

    Unit Change

    27,508,000

    27,508,000

    27,508,000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    13,490,100
    -1760458.05

    11,729,642
    5200000

    11,729,642
    5200000

    11,729,642
    5200000

    16,929,642

    16,929,642

    16,929,642

    16,929,642
    12801241.5500945

    16,929,642
    11131514.3913865

    16,929,642
    9679577.73164047

    15,028,000

    15,028,000

    15,028,000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000

    1,010,100
    -131818.05

    1,010,100
    -131818.05

    1,010,100
    -131818.05

    878,282
    5200000

    878,282
    5200000

    878,282
    5200000

    6,078,282

    6,078,282

    6,078,282

    6,078,282
    4596054.40453686

    6,078,282
    3996569.04742336

    6,078,282
    3475277.43254205

    Price Change

    23,920,000

    23,920,000

    23,920,000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    10,764,000
    -1404702

    10,764,000
    -1404702

    10,764,000
    -1404702

    9,359,298
    5200000

    9,359,298
    5200000

    9,359,298
    5200000

    14,559,298

    14,559,298

    14,559,298

    14,559,298
    11008920.9829868

    14,559,298
    9572974.76781458

    14,559,298
    8324325.88505616

    17,680,000

    17,680,000

    17,680,000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    4,524,000
    -590382

    4,524,000
    -590382

    4,524,000
    -590382

    3,933,618
    5200000

    3,933,618
    5200000

    3,933,618
    5200000

    9,133,618

    9,133,618

    9,133,618

    9,133,618
    6906327.41020794

    9,133,618
    6005502.09583299

    9,133,618
    5222175.73550695

    Variable Cost

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    7,644,000
    -997542

    7,644,000
    -997542

    7,644,000
    -997542

    6,646,458
    5200000

    6,646,458
    5200000

    6,646,458
    5200000

    11,846,458

    11,846,458

    11,846,458

    11,846,458
    8957624.19659735

    11,846,458
    7789238.43182379

    11,846,458
    6773250.81028156

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -7774000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -7774000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -7774000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    5,616,000
    -732888

    5,616,000
    -732888

    5,616,000
    -732888

    4,883,112
    5200000

    4,883,112
    5200000

    4,883,112
    5200000

    10,083,112

    10,083,112

    10,083,112

    10,083,112
    7624281.28544424

    10,083,112
    6629809.81342977

    10,083,112
    5765052.01167806

    Fixed Cost

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -6760000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2210000
    -5200000

    6,630,000
    -865215

    6,630,000
    -865215

    6,630,000
    -865215

    5,764,785
    5200000

    5,764,785
    5200000

    5,764,785
    5200000

    10,964,785

    10,964,785

    10,964,785

    10,964,785
    8290952.7410208

    10,964,785
    7209524.12262678

    10,964,785
    6269151.41097981

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -6760000
    -2990000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2990000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2990000
    -5200000

    5,850,000
    -763425

    5,850,000
    -763425

    5,850,000
    -763425

    5,086,575
    5200000

    5,086,575
    5200000

    5,086,575
    5200000

    10,286,575

    10,286,575

    10,286,575

    10,286,575
    7778128.54442344

    10,286,575
    6763590.03862908

    10,286,575
    5881382.64228616

    104,000,000

    104,000,000

    104,000,000

    -33800000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -33800000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -33800000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    62,400,000
    -814320

    62,400,000
    -814320

    62,400,000
    -814320

    61,585,680
    5200000

    61,585,680
    5200000

    61,585,680
    5200000

    66,785,680

    66,785,680

    66,785,680

    66,785,680
    50499568.9981096

    66,785,680
    43912668.6940084

    66,785,680
    38184929.2991377

    3,851,852

    3,851,852

    3,851,852

    -1251851.85185185
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -1251851.85185185
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -1251851.85185185
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -5,200,000
    814320

    -5,200,000
    814320

    -5,200,000
    814320

    -4,385,680
    5200000

    -4,385,680
    5200000

    -4,385,680
    5200000

    814,320

    814,320

    814,320

    814,320
    615742.911153119

    814,320
    535428.618394017

    814,320
    465590.102951319

    12,542,452,000

    12,542,452,000

    12,542,452,000

    -4076296900
    -2600000
    -5800000

    -4076296900
    -2600000
    -5800000

    -4076296900
    -2600000
    -5800000

    8,457,755,100
    5800000

    8,457,755,100
    5800000

    8,457,755,100
    5800000

    8,463,555,100
    6399663591.68242

    8,463,555,100
    5564924862.33254

    8,463,555,100
    4839065097.68047

    Salvage Value

    Probability

    5,000,000
    4,000,000
    3,000,000

    25%
    50%
    30%

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680
    8034540.64272212

    10,625,680
    6986557.08062793

    10,625,680
    6075267.02663298

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680
    8034540.64272212

    10,625,680
    6986557.08062793

    10,625,680
    6075267.02663298

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    20,800,000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    6,240,000
    -814320

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    5,425,680
    5200000

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680

    10,625,680
    8034540.64272212

    10,625,680
    6986557.08062793

    10,625,680
    6075267.02663298

    R-R

    (R-R)^2

    0.0003852695
    0.0007379024
    0.0004225516

    15.26%
    14.60%
    13.93%

    0.023275192
    0.0213261489
    0.0194058273

    0.0015457235

    0.0640071682

    -1625000
    16312.5
    -678600

    -1625000
    16312.5
    -678600

    -1625000
    16312.5
    -678600

    -2287287.5

    -2287287.5

    -2287287.5

    -1789934.95510112

    -1583417.70139649

    -1400727.78061038

    Quantity

    Price
    460
    400
    340

    ondition would be change by

    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000
    6,240,000
    -814320
    5,425,680
    5200000
    10,625,680
    300,000

    Variable Cost
    4600
    4000
    3400

    1105
    1300
    1495
    15%

    Fixed Cost
    170000
    200,000
    230000

    3000000
    13,925,680
    6923524.11920869

    27,508,000
    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000
    13,490,100
    -1760458.05
    11,729,642
    5200000
    16,929,642
    300,000
    3000000
    20,229,642

    10057707.3409543

    15,028,000
    -6607900
    -2990000
    -5200000
    230,100
    -1760458.05
    -1,530,358
    5200000
    3,669,642
    300,000
    3000000
    6,969,642
    3465143.83089901

    27,508,000
    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000
    13,490,100
    -1760458.05
    11,729,642
    5200000
    16,929,642
    300,000
    3000000
    20,229,642
    10057707.3409543

    15,028,000
    -6607900
    -2210000
    -5200000
    1,010,100
    -131818.05
    878,282
    5200000
    6,078,282
    300,000
    3000000
    9,378,282
    4662663.60260788

    23,920,000
    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000
    10,764,000
    -1404702
    9,359,298
    5200000
    14,559,298
    300,000
    3000000
    17,859,298
    8879227.47435928

    17,680,000
    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000
    4,524,000
    -590382
    3,933,618
    5200000
    9,133,618
    300,000
    3000000
    12,433,618
    6181705.60518605

    20,800,000
    -5746000
    -2210000
    -5200000
    7,644,000
    -997542
    6,646,458
    5200000
    11,846,458
    300,000
    3000000
    15,146,458
    7530466.53977267

    20,800,000
    -7774000
    -2210000
    -5200000
    5,616,000
    -732888
    4,883,112
    5200000
    10,083,112
    300,000
    3000000
    13,383,112
    6653771.93229137

    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2210000
    -5200000
    6,630,000
    -865215
    5,764,785
    5200000
    10,964,785
    300,000
    3000000
    14,264,785
    7092119.23603202

    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2990000
    -5200000
    5,850,000
    -763425
    5,086,575
    5200000
    10,286,575
    300,000
    3000000
    13,586,575
    6754929.00238536

    104,000,000
    -33800000
    -2600000
    -5200000
    62,400,000
    -814320
    61,585,680
    5200000
    66,785,680
    66,785,680
    33204286.3470763

    3,851,852
    -1251851.85185185
    -2600000
    -5200000
    -5,200,000
    814320
    -4,385,680
    5200000
    814,320
    814,320
    404860.959088103

    12,542,452,000
    -4076296900
    -2600000
    -5800000

    8,457,755,100
    5800000
    8,463,555,100
    4207882693.63519

    Discount rate
    15%

    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000

    6,240,000
    -814320
    5,425,680
    5200000
    10,625,680
    300,000
    5000000
    15,925,680
    7917877.58980527

    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000
    6,240,000
    -814320

    5,425,680
    5200000
    10,625,680
    300,000
    4000000
    14,925,680
    7420700.85450698

    20,800,000
    -6760000
    -2600000
    -5200000
    6,240,000
    -814320
    5,425,680
    5200000

    10,625,680
    300,000
    3000000
    13,925,680
    6923524.11920869

    -678600
    200,000
    -3000000

    -3478600
    -1884498.18941698

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