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British Exit From EU
British Exit From EU
By S Iftikhar Murshed
July 18, 2016
Print : Opinion
When ministers from France, Italy, West Germany and the three Benelux countries
signed the Treaty of Paris on April 18, 1951 to establish Coal and Steel Community,
they could not have imagined that it would transform into the European Economic
Community under the Treaty of Rome in 1957 and then burgeon into the European
Union in 1993. Thus a unique supranational form of government was established.
The June 23 referendum is a replay of recent British history. As early as 1975, barely
two years after the countrys entry into the EEC, the then prime minister Harold
Wilson decided to go for a referendum on Britains continued membership of the
European community. The wisdom of remaining was never in doubt and the British
prime ministers utterly plebeian motive for the plebiscite was merely to unite the
disparate factions of his Labour Party.
In the 1975 referendum the question posed to voters was Do you think the United
Kingdom should remain in the European community (the Common Market). The
response was a resounding yes in both England and Scotland.
In contrast, this year the UK decided to leave the EU by a margin of 51.9 percent to
48.1 percent but Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain, as did Northern Ireland.
This has unleashed a speculative tsunami that the two regions could sever their links
with the UK.
It is absurdly ironic that during the referendum on Scotlands independence barely
two years ago, English politicians had warned the Scots that should they opt out of
the UK, it would, ipso facto, end Scotlands membership of the EU. The outcome was
that a convincing 55. 30 percent decided to remain.
The situation is now entirely different as is evident from the statement of Scotlands
first minister Nicola Sturgeon on June 26: The context and the circumstances have
changed dramatically. The UK that Scotland voted to remain within in 2014 doesnt
exist anymoreWe face the prospect of being taken out of the European Union
against our will.
Three days later, she rushed to Brussels to present Scotlands case and was given a
polite hearing by most, but not all, of her interlocutors. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy
of Spain was uncharacteristically blunt: Scotland does not have the competence to
negotiate with the European Union. If the United Kingdom leavesScotland leaves.
But if change is the law of life, it is impossible to predict what the stance of the EU
will be in the months to come. The writing on the wall is that Scotland may
eventually opt for independence and this is corroborated by the latest polls which
show that between 55 to 59 percent of Scots would vote to sever ties with England.
John Bulls little island could become even smaller.
In Northern Ireland, the leading nationalist party Sinn Fein proposed a referendum for
reunification with the south. Although this has been ignored by both London and
Dublin, a far more serious issue was highlighted by The Economist, Another
shamefully overlooked snag is that Britains exit from Europe will break the Good
Friday Agreement of 1998, in which Northern Irelands peace process was
underpinned by the EU. This treaty has kept the peace in the UKs most troubled
region for nearly 20 years. Fixing the mess will be an urgent task for the prime
minister.
Formidable challenges lie ahead for Prime Minister Theresa May. Negotiations for
leaving the EU will have to be initiated under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This
consists of a mere 261 words, and, even worse, it does not give a vote to the
seceding state on the final terms of departure.
Britains trade relationship with the EU will have to be separately negotiated within
two years as stipulated in Article 50. If this deadline is not met WTO rules will apply.
This will entail tariffs and no special arrangements for services. Almost half of the
UKs exports go to Europe and this makes the negotiations on a trade agreement
pivotal.
Experts are convinced that under the circumstances the most feasible arrangement
is the one granted by the EU to the European Free Trade Association (Norway,
Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein). In return for access to the single market,
members of the group make hefty contributions to the EU budget and are obliged to
accept its bedrock principle of free movement of labour the very issues that
prompted the British leave vote.
In effect, this amounts to a humiliating commitment to abide by all the EU
regulations without having a corresponding right to frame these rules. The silver
lining is that such a settlement offers the best chance of preventing the secession of
Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Email: iftimurshed@gmail.com