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Strong Exploration of A Cast Iron Pipe Failure Model
Strong Exploration of A Cast Iron Pipe Failure Model
Abstract
A physical probabilistic failure model for buried cast iron pipes is described, which is based on the fracture mechanics of the pipe
failure process. Such a model is useful in the asset management of buried pipelines. The model is then applied within a Monte-Carlo
simulation framework after adding stochasticity to input variables. Historical failure rates are calculated based on a database of 81,595
pipes and their recorded failures, and model parameters are chosen to provide the best t between historical and predicted failure rates.
This provides an estimated corrosion rate distribution, which agrees well with experimental results. The rst model design was chosen in
a deliberate simplistic fashion in order to allow for further strong exploration of model assumptions. Therefore, rst runs of the initial
model resulted in a poor quantitative and qualitative t in regards to failure rates. However, by exploring natural additional assumptions
such as relating to stochastic loads, a number of assumptions were chosen which improved the model to a stage where an acceptable t
was achieved. The model bridges the gap between micro- and macro-level, and this is the novelty in the approach. In this model, data can
be used both from the macro-level in terms of failure rates, as well as from the micro-level such as in terms of corrosion rates.
r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Probabilistic model; Limit-state model; Monte-Carlo simulation; Cast iron pipe failures; Corrosion rates
1. Introduction
In Australia, the ratio of infrastructure to population is
relatively high, and much of the infrastructure including
water reticulation systems was constructed in the peak
period after the end of the Second World War [1]. For
many Australian water authorities, cast iron pipes account
for a considerable portion of buried water pipe assets. As
per the Australian Standards for Risk Management [2],
infrastructure renewal and rehabilitation strategies should
be based on risk analysis, which requires assessment of
future failure rates and sometimes failure probabilities, as
well as the potential costs of failures.
Smaller diameter pipes, between 40 and 300 mm, are
used for reticulation and are often classied as reactive
assets. Since the consequences of failure are generally low
for this group of pipes, these pipe assets can generally be
allowed to operate until failure. Because many water
utilities collect and keep large volumes of historical failure
Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 3 9252 6025; fax: +61 3 9252 6249.
data for these assets, the future failure rates in such mains
are commonly forecasted using statistics [3]. In contrast,
larger diameter trunk mains, with a diameter between 300
and 600 mm, are usually classied as proactive because
relatively severe economic/social/environmental consequences are incurred upon failure and therefore proactive
asset management measures are used. An example of a
proactive measure is active cathodic protection for a large
diameter supply main under a road in a Central Business
District. Although proactive assets are comparable in age
to reactive assets (up to 130 years old), proactive mains
often do not have signicant failure histories.
Because of the need for assessing the risk of failure for
proactive pipe assets, water utilities in Australia have
started using non-destructive testing to quantify the
condition of these assets. Examples are the use of
electromagnetic tools to measure remaining un-corroded
wall thickness, or the measurement of soil environment
properties to identify areas of high corrosivity. In the
absence of historical failure data, physical probabilistic
failure models can be used in the rst instance to forecast
future condition and failure probabilities of proactive
0951-8320/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.033
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Nomenclature
b0
cYear
D
fYear
F
L
M
p
pc
Pe
Ps
Q
R
S
t
T
w
W
Wc
y
Y
yt
a
g
Z
l
sf
s0
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X1,
(1)
pc
Wc
where p and W are the applied internal pressure (in MPa)
and external load (in kN/m), respectively. pc is the critical
internal pressure required for failure in the absence of an
external load and Wc is the critical external load required
for failure with no internal pressure. Experimental investigations by Schlick [14] have also illustrated that the
failure condition of a cast iron pipe subjected to combined
internal pressure p and an external three-edge load w is well
captured by Eq. (1). pc (in MPa), and Wc (in kN/m) can be
written in terms of the nominal tensile strength of the pipe
wall sf [13].
2sf b0
1048sf b20
; Wc
,
(2)
D
D
where b0 is the original pipe wall thickness (in m) and D is
the pipe mean diameter (in m).
The applied external load W in Eq. (1) is comprised of
separate components from soil dead loads and surface
loads [6].
pc
W Pe Ps D b0 ,
(3)
where Pe is the soil load (in kPa) and Ps is the surface load
(in kPa). As corrosion proceeds, the resistance of a pipe to
withstand service loads is reduced. sf can be related to the
extent of corrosion damage in the pipe wall using fracture
mechanics theory or loss of section analysis. As reported by
Atkinson et al. [15], the loss of section analysis, assuming
that the corrosion simply reduces the pipe wall thickness,
provides a better correlation with experimental data. Based
on experimental data from Atkinson et al. [15], the
dependency in CI pipes of nominal tensile strength sf on
maximum pit depth, d(t) (in m/year), can be written as
dt
sf max 0:4s0 ; s0 g
.
(4)
b0
It should be noted that Eq. (4) is based on an empirical
t to experimental data obtained by Atkinson et al. [15].
This study subjected a number of 1-m long lengths of
exhumed cast iron pipe to three- and four-point exural
bending tests. The nominal tensile stress sf was calculated
from the load required for failure and the distance between
supports in each test. The resultant fracture surfaces from
each test were examined to determine the maximum
corrosion defect at the fracture initiation site in each test.
Although the composition of individual cast iron pipes
used in this experimental study was not reported, microstructural examination of each sample showed some
variation in the graphite ake size and shape. Therefore,
the applicability of Eq. (4) to a separate set of cast iron
pipes is unclear. However, in the absence of new experimental data, the relationship based on data in the literature
provides a useful rst approximation.
According to Eq. (4), the remaining nominal tensile
strength can only reduce to 40% of the original value. This
is interpreted as the remaining strength of a fully corroded
(graphitised) pipe, and is based on the experimental
observations by Atkinson et al. [15]. This lower limit on
the nominal tensile strength is later introduced as an
estimable model parameter. The maximum pit depth
growth is described by
dt Rt,
(5)
Please cite this article as: Moglia M, et al. Strong exploration of a cast iron pipe failure model. Reliab Eng Syst Safety (2007), doi:10.1016/
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Sr PR4r er=a ,
(6)
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Qt
(7)
2002
X
F zMzTz
Iz; ci ; t
Iz; ci ; twi ,
(8)
z1995
if z ci t
otherwise
(9)
1953
1926
yt
,
Qt
Spun Cast
Pit Cast
Unlined
Factory lined
1969
1953-1969
Single population:
Factory lined,spun
cast, native soil
surround
Fig. 1. Event chart for manufacture, installation and cement lining of CI pipes in Melbourne.
Please cite this article as: Moglia M, et al. Strong exploration of a cast iron pipe failure model. Reliab Eng Syst Safety (2007), doi:10.1016/
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1.E+06
350
9.E+05
y (t) = number of failures
8.E+05
7.E+05
6.E+05
5.E+05
4.E+05
3.E+05
2.E+05
300
250
200
150
100
1.E+05
0.E+00
50
0
25
30
35
40
t = pipe ages [years]
45
50
Fig. 2. Failure exposure for a range of pipe ages. This exposure relates to
recorded failures between 1995 and 2002 in cast iron pipes installed
between 1953 and 1969.
25
30
35
40
t = pipe ages [years]
45
50
Fig. 3. Number of failures, y(t), for different pipe ages within the recorded
set of data.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
25
EY t VarY t mt lt Qt,
(11)
30
35
40
45
t = pipe ages at failure [years]
50
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0.02
0.015
0.01
Minimum point
[0.042, 1.18]
Experimentally measured
point [0.036, 1.23]
0.005
0
0.06
0.05
We
ibul 0.04
l sc
ale
0.03
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Weibull
1.5
1.6
shape
25
f(a) = probability density
experimental
20
fitted
15
10
5
0
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
a = corrosionrate [mm/year]
0.2
Please cite this article as: Moglia M, et al. Strong exploration of a cast iron pipe failure model. Reliab Eng Syst Safety (2007), doi:10.1016/
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180
Simulated
Observed
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
25
30
35
40
45
50
Fig. 7. Predicted and observed failure rates observed in the time period.
Failures per 100 km vs. age of a pipe.
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70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
25
30
35
40
45
50
Fig. 8. Observed and simulated failure rates with new model features,
No. 1. Failures per 100 km vs. age of a pipe.
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10
100
100
Observed
Observed
Simulated
80
80
Simulated
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
25
0
25
30
35
40
45
50
30
35
40
45
50
Fig. 10. Observed and simulated failure rates with new model features,
No. 3. Failures per 100 km vs. age of a pipe.
Fig. 9. Observed and simulated failure rates with new model features,
No. 2. Failures per 100 km vs. age of a pipe.
100
Observed
Simulated
80
60
40
20
0
25
30
35
40
45
50
Fig. 11. Observed and simulated failure rates with new model features,
No. 4. Failures per 100 km vs. age of a pipe.
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11
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12
Please cite this article as: Moglia M, et al. Strong exploration of a cast iron pipe failure model. Reliab Eng Syst Safety (2007), doi:10.1016/
j.ress.2007.03.033