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Estimation of Incremental Haulage Costs by Mining Historical Data and Their Influence in The Final Pit Definition
Estimation of Incremental Haulage Costs by Mining Historical Data and Their Influence in The Final Pit Definition
OCTOBER 2008
MINING ENGINEERING
MINING ENGINEERING
OCTOBER 2008
45
FIGURE 2
bench.
destination.
lift (Delta Z).
P[b( m ) | (a, m )]
P[ marginal _ mean | a ]
(1)
where
a is the actual attribute value and
b(m) is the predicted value using the model (m).
Equation (1) assumes a normal distribution to comChen (2001) suggests dividing the data into three
pute the probabilities for both predicted and actual
subsets: training, testing and evaluation sets for predicvalues. Table 2 summarizes the different scores achieved
tive modeling. For this analysis, two data sets were arfor the predictable attributes (potential cost drivers), for
ranged: a training set to build the model (e.g., to define
both training and testing data sets. Additionally, Table 2
equations between input/predictable attributes) and
includes the square of the correlation coefficient (R2)
a testing set to evaluate its accuracy. A data mining
for the models. It can be noted clearly that haultime
technique called Decision Trees was chosen for model
achieved the highest score values compared to the other
construction. For the case of continuous variables, the
indicators in both data sets. Figure 4 shows the decision
decision tree algorithm uses linear regression to decide
tree for haultime, with a regression formula in each
where a decision tree splits. A regression formula is crenode of the tree. For instance, a haul profile having the
ated in each node of the tree. A split occurs at a point
crusher (CR) as destination with a bench elevation less
of nonlinearity in the regression formula. Generally,
than 2,564 has the following expression:
a regression formula contains one or more regressors
(input attributes). If no regressor is present in the forHaul time = 8.808 + 0.024*
(2)
mula, the result tree contains a constant in each leaf
(Delta Z - 122.071) 0.024*(Bench 2,541.929)
node.
Eight destinations were considered for model
construction according to the material type asTable 2
signed. Twenty benches, with elevations between
2,510 and 2,770 m (8,230 to 9,090 ft) above sea Scores and R2 for training and testing data sets.
level, were as well considered as origin points.
Training set
Testing set
Figure 2 shows a dependency network, which is Attribute name
Units
Score
R2
Score
R2
used generally as an exploratory data analysis.
This tool is included in the Microsoft Decision haultime minutes
5.50
0.94
4.98
0.96
Tree approach. The DN displays the relation- haulreturn minutes
4.16
0.92
2.94
0.82
ships among attributes (input and predictable) cycletime minutes
2.88
0.84
2.39
0.77
from the decision tree models content and their hauldist
meters
3.24
0.87
2.43
0.83
associated weights. The weights are related with
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OCTOBER 2008
MINING ENGINEERING
7,456
7,171
285
spectively. An avNumber of ORE blocks mined
2,758
2,674
84
erage payload of
Number of WASTE blocks mined
4,698
4,497
201
160 t (180 st) per
Net revenue
million US$
163,324
159,954
3,370
truck was includORE mined
million st
98.7
95.7
3.0
ed in the calculaWASTE mined
million st
161.1
154.2
6.9
tion to determine
TOTAL material mined
million st
259.8
249.9
9.9
unit haulage costs
Stripping ratio
1.63
1.61
0.02
($/st).
Figure 5 shows
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FIGURE 4
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Conclusions
Historical production data and incurred costs were
integrated, processed and analyzed to establish a characteristic cost driver for haulage activity. The cost driver
was then used to trace haulage costs by bench. A dependency network was used to find the most representative
cost driver from different truck performance indicators. The dependency network showed that haul time
attribute had the strongest relationship (most correlated) with the location-related input attributes: bench,
destination and lift. The dynamic assignment of trucks by dispatch systems and the speed variation by grade
segment are potential causes of the
lack of accuracy for the other truck
performance attributes evaluated.
In real time, loaded haul and empty
return segments are not always performed in the same route. Instead, the
trucks can be reassigned to different
locations. This event distorts typical
truck performance indicators, such as
total cycle time, that are widely used
for mine planning purposes.
Additionally, a sensitivity analysis
was carried out to evaluate the effect
References
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Chen, Z., 2001, Data Mining and Uncertain Reasoning: An Integrated Approach, Wiley, New York and Chichester England.
Report: Open Pit Mine Planning and Design Workshop held at the
annual meeting of AIME 1978, pp. 83-96.
Hays, R., 1990, Mine operations: Trucks, Surface Mining, pp.
672-691, Society of Mining Engineers of AIME, SME Littleton, CO.
Tang, Z., and MacLennan, J., eds., 2005, Data Mining with SQL
Server 2005, Wiley, Indianapolis, IN.
Whittle, J., 1990, Open pit optimization, Surface Mining, pp.
470-475, SME, Littleton, CO.
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