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RBS - Round Up - 260510
RBS - Round Up - 260510
This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.
The Round Up
26 May 2010
Issue No. 338
Equities
Move Last % Move Range Volume
ASX 200 -130.1 4265.3 -3.0% -130 to + $6.0 bn(A)
SPI - yesterday -142.0 4274.0 -3.2% -153 to -63.u.c 39,264(H)
Dow Jones -22.8 10043.8 -0.2% -292 to -5 Avg
S&P 500 +0.4 1074.0 +0.0% -33 to +1 Avg
Nasdaq -2.6 2211.0 -0.1% -73 to -2 Low
FTSE -128.9 4940.7 -2.5% -171 to u.c Low
Commodities
Move Last % Today % Past Month
Oil-WTI spot -0.80 69.41 -1.1% -18.5%
Gold Spot +8.75 1200.40 +0.7% +3.7%
Nickel (LME) -45.68 957.91 -4.6% -21.8%
Aluminium (LME) -2.98 90.12 -3.2% -13.7%
Copper (LME) -8.30 304.00 -2.7% -13.1%
Zinc (LME) -3.46 82.78 -4.0% -23.0%
Silver +0.02 17.93 +0.1% -2.2%
Sugar +0.06 15.25 +0.4% -2.6%
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
Overnight Commentary
US markets were weaker but staged an afternoon rally to bounce 3% off lows with the S&P500 just closing in the black
with the major indices importantly closing above February lows. The Dow was off 23pts, the S&P was flat and the Nasdaq
fell 0.1%.
Eco - Consumer Confidence was 63.3, its highest level in two years, vs 58.5 expected up from a revised 57.7 previously.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing was inline at 26 and the House Price Index was +0.3% vs flat expected and up from -0.4%
prior. The Case Schiller year on year gain was slightly lower than expected but month on month the 20 city was better
than expected.
Financials - House Rep Barney Frank said a proposal to limit deriv trading by the banks went too far. Goldmans jumped
4.3%, Regions Financial was up 3.5%, MS added 1.4% and on the big board JP's rose 0.8% with BoA up 0.6%.
Materials - Commodity prices bounced late helping some in the sector to good gains. Freeport and Newmont were up
3.1% and 2.3%, Alcoa climbed 1.9% but Caterpillar was flat. AK Steel, up 11.4%, was the best on the S&P500 after being
upgraded with US Steel up 3.7% and Nucor adding 1.5%.
The FTSE shed 129 points Tuesday as lingering European debt fears and conflict talks out of North Korea caused
investors to abandon risky assets. Banks and miners continue to bear the brunt of the selloff again underperforming the
broader market. The market finished the day -2.5%, the DAX -2.3% and the CAC -2.9%.
Banks - Banks were sold off as concerns surrounding Europe's debt situation remain a threat to the global economic
recovery. Barclays, Lloyds, HSBC and Standard Chartered off 4.3% to 8%.
In the UK GDP was in line at 0.3%, private consumption was slightly better than expected at 0% vs. -0.2% exp. And
imports were higher at 1.4% vs. 0.4% exp. Across the Eurozone industrial new orders were 5.2% vs. 2.5% exp. (mom)
and 19.8% vs 15% (yoy).
Commodities Commentary
Miners - Miners were weaker as metal prices were sold off on the back of demand concerns. ENRC, Antofagasta,
Vedanta, RIO, BHP and Xstrata off 2.8% to 7.1%.
Energy - Oil majors tracked the crude price lower and continue to be sold off on sentiment surrounding BP's oil spill in the
Gulf of Mexico. BP, BG and Royal Dutch off 1.2% to 2%.
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 151pt to 4274. Open at 4425 with a high of 4437 and a low of 4263. Volume 44,775 Overnight the
SPI traded up 76pts 4339.
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS
Source: IRESS
Investment view
Prior to the initial bid, our preference was for NCM over LGL for gold exposure due to diversification by mine and
geography, its strong growth pipeline, management strength and a relatively low P/NPV multiple. Should the merger be
successful we are of the view that NCM's management team will be able to extract greater operational synergies over
time than the A$85m currently factored in to our numbers, and remain buyers on a long term view. We maintain our view
that a competing bid for LGL is unlikely but would continue to hold that stock with a view to NCM exposure now that a
timeline for the merger has been established.
Source: IRESS
Source: IRESS
During the peak of US reporting, we are generally inundated with results on a daily basis, some of which have more
relevance than others for the Australian market. To help prioritise the US results, we have surveyed the RBS research
analysts and asked them to identify which are the key US stocks to watch in their sectors. These are presented in the
table below, along with their expected reporting date and key forecast expectations.
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
Equity Structured Products and Warrants
For further information please do not hesitate to contact us on the details below
Disclaimer
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Equity Structured Products and Warrants
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