JIM 104

INTRODUCTION TO
STATISTICS
Video Conference 3
Chapter 4
Probability and Counting Rules

BY
ASSOC. PROF. DR. NORAIDA ABDUL GHANI
McGraw-Hill, Bluman, 7th , 8th & 9th ed, Chapter 4

Outline
Sample Space and Probability
Addition Rules for Probability
Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
Counting Rules
Probability and Counting Rules
* Probability- its meaning, how its computed & how to evaluate in terms of the likelihood of an

What is probability?
the chance of an event

occuring
a measure of your uncertainty

Probability experiment
a chance process that leads to
well defined results/outcomes
Outcome
the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment

1. Flipping a coin is a probability

experiment.
An outcome of flipping a coin is a Head.
2. Rolling a die is a probability experiment.
An outcome of rolling a die is number 2.
3. Drawing a card from a deck is a probability
experiment.
An outcome of drawing a card from a
deck is 6 of hearts.

A sample space is the set of all possible

outcomes of a probability experiment.
Probability
Experiment
Toss a coin

Sample Space

Roll a die

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Answer a true/false
questions
Toss two coins

True, False

Head, Tail

HH, TT, HT, TH

is used to determine all possible

outcome of a probability
experiment

Use a tree diagram to find the sample space

of tossing 3 coins.

TTT

H
T

TTH
THT

H
T

H
T

THH
HTT

H
T

HTH
HHT

HHH

S = {TTT, TTH, THT, THH, HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH}

a set of outcomes of a probability

experiment
Example :

A = event of getting two heads

when flipping 3 coins.
= {THH, HTH, HHT}

1. Classical probability

2. Empirical or relative frequency

probability
3. Subjective probability

uses sample spaces to determine the

numerical probability that an event
will occur and assumes that all
outcomes in the sample space are
equally likely to occur.
Equally likely events are events that have the
same probability of occurring.

Probability experiment : Rolling a die

Sample space : S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
Event : E = event of getting an odd no.
= { 1, 3, 5 }
3
6

Probability : P(E) =
In general :
n(E)
P(E)

n(S)

Rule 1: The probability of any event

E is a number between and
including 0 and 1, i.e.; 0 P(E) 1
Rule 2: If an event cannot occur, its
probability is 0, i.e., if E ,

then P(E) 0

Rule 3: If an event E is certain,

then the probability of E is 1,

i.e., P(E) 1
Rule 4: The sum of the probabilities
of all the outcomes in the sample
space is 1.

set of outcomes in the sample

space that are not included in the
outcomes of event.

If E = event, then
E = complement of E

P(E) P(E) 1
P(E) 1 P(E)
P(E) 1 P(E)
Why is this important?

relies on actual experience to

determine the likelihood of
outcomes, i.e., it is based on
observation.

In empirical probability, given a

frequency distribution, the probability
of an event being in a given class is,
P (E) = frequency for the class
total frequencies in the distribution

Suppose 25 people is asked if

they like the taste of a new
product. The responses were
classified as yes, no or
undecided and the results are
as shown:

Response
Yes
No
Undecided
Total

Frequency
15
8
2
----------25
=======

If E = event that a person selected liked

the taste of the new product,
15 3
then P(E)

25 5

The empirical probabilities will

approach the theoretical
probabilities if the number of
trials/experiment is large.

 uses a probability value based on

an educated guess or estimate,

employing opinions and inexact
information.
based on the persons experience

and evaluation.

1
2
3

5
6
1
2
3

4
5
6
2
3

4
5
6
1
2
3

4
5
6
1
2
3

4
5
6
1
2
3

4
5
6

Die 2
6

Die 1

Sample space S:
1,1 ,

2,1
,

3,1 ,

4,1
,

5,1 ,

6,1 ,

1, 2 ,
2, 2 ,
3, 2 ,
4, 2 ,
5, 2 ,
6, 2 ,

1,3 ,
2,3 ,
3,3 ,
4,3 ,
5,3 ,
6,3 ,

1, 4 ,
2, 4 ,
3, 4 ,
4, 4 ,
5, 4 ,
6, 4 ,

1,5 ,
2,5 ,
3,5 ,
4,5 ,
5,5 ,
6,5 ,

1,6

2,6
3,6

4,6
5,6

6,6

 1,1 ,

2,1 ,
3,1 ,
S
4,1 ,
5,1 ,

6,1 ,

1,2 ,
2,2 ,
3,2 ,
4,2 ,
5,2 ,
6,2 ,

1,3 ,
2,3 ,
3,3 ,
4,3 ,
5,3 ,
6,3 ,

1,4 ,
2,4 ,
3,4 ,
4,4 ,
5,4 ,
6,4 ,

(a) P (a sum of 6)
= P 1,5 , 5,1 , (2, 4 , 4, 2 , 3,3

1,5 ,
2,5 ,
3,5 ,
4,5 ,
5,5 ,
6,5 ,

36
(b) P (doubles)

P 1,1 , 2,2 , 3,3 , 4,4 , 5,5 , 6,6

6
1

36
6

1,6
2,6
3,6
4,6
5,6

6,6

 1,1 ,

2,1 ,
3,1 ,
S
4,1 ,
5,1 ,

6,1 ,

1,2 ,
2,2 ,
3,2 ,
4,2 ,
5,2 ,
6,2 ,

1,3 ,
2,3 ,
3,3 ,
4,3 ,
5,3 ,
6,3 ,

1,4 ,
2,4 ,
3,4 ,
4,4 ,
5,4 ,
6,4 ,

1,5 ,
2,5 ,
3,5 ,
4,5 ,
5,5 ,
6,5 ,

1,6
2,6
3,6
4,6
5,6

6,6

(c) P (a sum of 7 or 11)

= P 1,6 , 6,1 , 2,5 , 5,2 , 3,4 , 4,35,6 , 6,5
8
2

36
9
(d) P (a sum greater than 9)
=

P 4,6 , 6, 4 , 5,5 , 5,6 , 6,5 , 6,6

6
1

36
6

 1,1 ,

2,1 ,
3,1 ,
S
4,1 ,
5,1 ,

6,1 ,

1,2 ,
2,2 ,
3,2 ,
4,2 ,
5,2 ,
6,2 ,

1,3 ,
2,3 ,
3,3 ,
4,3 ,
5,3 ,
6,3 ,

1,4 ,
2,4 ,
3,4 ,
4,4 ,
5,4 ,
6,4 ,

1,5 ,
2,5 ,
3,5 ,
4,5 ,
5,5 ,
6,5 ,

(e) P (a sum less than or equal to 4)

P 1,1 , 1, 2 , 1,3 , 3,1 , 2,1 , 2, 2
6

36
1

1,6
2,6
3,6
4,6
5,6

6,6

B
B
G

B
G

1st Child

2nd Child

3rd Child

BBB

BBG

BGB

BGG

GBB

GBG

GGB

GGG

S={BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG,

GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}

1
(a) P (all boys) = P(BBB) =
8
(b) P (all girls or all boys)
= P (GGG, BBB)
=

2
1

8
4

S={BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}

(c) P (exactly 2 boys or 2 girls)
= P(BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB)
6
3
=
8
4

OR P (exactly 2 boys or 2 girls)

= 1 P (all girls or all boys)
= 1 P (GGG, BBB)
2
6
3
1

8
8
4

S={BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}

(d) P (at least 1 child of each gender)

= 1 P (all girls or all boys)
2
1
8
6
3

8
4

$1

$5

$10

$20

$5
$10
$20
$1
$10
$20

$1
$5
$20
$1

$1, $5
$1, $10
$1, $20
$5, $1
$5, $10

$5, $20
$10, $1
$10, $5
$10, $20

$5

$20, $1
$20, $5

$10

$20, $10

HH

T
1

HT

T2

T3

T4

T5

T6

T1

 events that cannot occur at the

same time
Addition Rule 1
Addition Rule 2

If events A and B are naturally

exclusive, then
P(A or B) P(A B)
P(A) P(B)

If events A and B are not naturally

exclusive,

then P(A or B) P(A B)

P(A) P(B) P(A and B)

B

A
A &B

P(A) P(B) P(A B)

(a)

NO

(b)

NO (c) YES

(d)

NO

(e)

NO (f) YES

(g) YES

Male

Female

Total

Age 19 & under

4746

4517

9263

Age 20

1625

1553

3178

Age 21

1679

1627

3306

Total

8050

7697

15747

Male

Female

Total

Age 19 & under

4746

4517

9263

Age 20

1625

1553

3178

Age 21

1679

1627

3306

Total

8050

7697

15747

(a) P (male and 19 or under)

4746

15747

Male

Female

Total

Age 19 & under

4746

4517

9263

Age 20

1625

1553

3178

Age 21

1679

1627

3306

Total

8050

7697

15747

(b) P(Age 20 or female) P(Age 20 female)

P(Age 20) P(female) P(Age 20 female)
3178
7697
1553
9322

15747 15747 15747 15747

Male

Female

Total

Age 19 & under

4746

4517

9263

Age 20

1625

1553

3178

Age 21

1679

1627

3306

Total

8050

7697

15747

(c) P (at least 20 yrs old)

6484

15747

Two events A and B are

independent events if the fact
that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.

If A and B are independent event, then

P (A and B) = P (A B)
= P (A) P (B)

Multiplication Rule 2
If A and B are dependent events, then
P (A and B) = P (A B)
= P (A) P B A

P B A = the probability that event

B occurs given that event A
has occurred.
P A B
P B A
P A

P(B)

P(A)
P(A & B)

A deck of card consists of 4 suits (hearts, diamond, spade, clover)

Each suit consists of 13 cards (A, K, Q, J, 10, 9, , 2)
In total, a deck of cards consists of 42 cards
Heart
A K

10 9

10 9

Spade
A K

10 9

Clover
A K

10 9

Diamond
A

(a) P (both cards are spade)

P (S1 S2 )

P (S1 )P(S2 S1 )
1
13 12

17
52 51

(b) P (both cards are of the same suit)

P H1 H 2 or D1 D2 or S1 S2 or C1 C2
P H1 H 2 P D1 D2 P S1 S2 C1 C2
1 1 1 1 4

17 17 17 17 17

(c) P (both are kings) P K1 K 2

P K1 P K 2 K1
1
4 3

52 51 221

2
4

D
G

2 without replacement

P (both are defective) P D1 D 2

P D1 P D 2 D1
2 1 1

6 5 15

P (5 buy at least 1)
90 89 88 87 86

120 119 118 117 116

0.2306
5

90

0.2373
120

 used to determine the number of

all possible outcomes for a

sequence of events.
3 types of counting rules.

In a sequence of n events in which

the first one has k1 possibilities and
the second event has k2, the third
has k3, and so forth, the total
number of possibilities of the
sequence will be k1, k2 , k3 , k4kn

A coin is tossed and a die is rolled.

Find the number of outcomes for the
sequence of events.

Outcome

H1

H2

H3

H4

H5

6
1

H6

2
T

3
4
5
6

Coin

Die

T1
T2
T3

T4
T5
T6

A die is rolled 6 times. Find the

total number of outcomes for the
events.

Total outcomes
= (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6)
= 66
impossible to draw a tree diagram

For any counting n,

n! = n(n-1)(n-2)...1

0! = 1

an arrangement of n objects in a
specific order.
Permutation Rule 1

n!
nPr
(n r)!
Total number of permutation of n
objects in a specific order using r objects
at a time.

a selection of distinct objects

without regard to order.
Combination Rule
nCr

n!

(n r)!r!

Total number of combination of r

objects selected from n objects (order
of arrangements is not important).

Given the letters A, B, and C, find

the total number of permutations

and combinations for selecting

two letters.

The permutations are:

AB BA
AC CA

total permutations = 6

BC CB
3!
3 P2
3 2 !
Using formula:

3! 3 2 1

6
1!
1

The combinations are:

AB
AC
BC
Using
formula:

total combinations = 3
3!
3!

3C 2
3 2 !2! 1!2!
3 2 1

3
2 1

Table 4 1, on page 232 gives a summary of the

counting rules.

7!
7.6.5.4!

210
7 P3
4!
7 3 !

Exercise 14
10!
10.9.8.7.6.5.4!

151, 200
10 P6
4!
10 6 !

(i)

12C4

= 495

(4 person)
(ii)

7 C2 . 5 C 2

= (21) (10) = 210

(2 women, 2 men)
(iii) 7C2.5C2

+ 7C3.5C1 + 7C4 - 5C0

(at least 2 women)

1
2 1
P W1W2
50 49 1225
2W
48W

There are 63 = 216 ways of tossing

three dice.
There are 15 ways of getting a sum of
7, i.e.;
(1, 1, 5), (1, 5, 1), (5, 1, 1), (1, 2, 4), (1, 4,
2), (4, 1, 2), (4, 1, 2), (2, 4, 1),
(4, 2, 1), (2, 2, 3), (2, 3, 2), (3, 2, 2).
15
5
P(sum of seven)

216 72

Permutation Rule 2
Suppose we have n objects, r1 are the
same objects of type 1, r2 of type 2, ,
and rk of type k. The number of
permutation that can be obtained
using these objects is given by

n!
r1 !r2 ! rk !

Examples
(r1 , r2 ,

n!
, rk , n) :
r1 !r2 ! rk !

3!
3
2, 1, 3 :
2!1!
4!
6
2, 2, 4 :
2!2!

ways

ways