Date

Adj Close Adj Close

return dbs
return sti
3/1/2016
13.96 2726.959961 0.048835462 0.02267
2/1/2016
13.31
2666.51001 -0.034807832 0.014225
1/1/2016
13.79 2629.110107 -0.157090465 -0.087979
12/1/2015
16.36
2882.72998 0.011124845 0.00938
11/2/2015
16.18 2855.939941 -0.044300059 -0.047496
10/1/2015
16.93 2998.350098 0.065449969 0.074335
9/1/2015
15.89 2790.889893 -0.087306146 -0.044687
8/3/2015
17.41 2921.439941 -0.120262759 -0.087763
7/1/2015
19.79
3202.5 -0.010005003 -0.034615
6/1/2015
19.99 3317.330078 0.018858308 -0.022045
5/1/2015
19.62 3392.110107 -0.037291462 -0.027321
4/1/2015
20.38 3487.389893 0.051057246 0.011714
3/2/2015
19.39
3447.01001 0.040236052 0.012974
2/2/2015
18.64 3402.860107 -0.011140584 0.003438
1/1/2015
18.85 3391.199951 -0.039245668 0.007741
12/1/2014
19.62 3365.149902 0.038644786 0.004372
11/3/2014
18.89
3350.5 0.073295455 0.023288
10/1/2014
17.6
3274.25 0.002849003 -0.00076
9/1/2014
17.55
3276.73999 0.028119508 -0.015133
8/1/2014
17.07 3327.090088 -0.001170275 -0.013921
7/1/2014
17.09 3374.060059 0.087842139 0.036364
6/2/2014
15.71 3255.669922 -0.008832808 -0.012191
5/1/2014
15.85 3295.850098 0.01537476 0.009538
4/1/2014
15.61 3264.709961 0.047651007 0.023863
3/3/2014
14.9 3188.620117 -0.021024967 0.025023
2/3/2014
15.22 3110.780029 0.003295979 0.027603
1/1/2014
15.17 3027.219971 -0.036825397 -0.044266
12/2/2013
15.75 3167.429932 -0.005053696 -0.002808
11/1/2013
15.83 3176.350098 0.026588846 -0.010689
10/1/2013
15.42 3210.669922 0.019167217 0.013511
9/2/2013
15.13 3167.870117 0.039148352 0.045868
8/1/2013
14.56 3028.939941 -0.038309115 -0.059899
7/1/2013
15.14 3221.929932 0.077580071 0.022692
6/3/2013
14.05 3150.439941 -0.096463023 -0.048599
5/1/2013
15.55 3311.370117 0.040133779 -0.016867
4/1/2013
14.95 3368.179932 0.046918768 0.018161
3/1/2013
14.28 3308.100098 0.059347181 0.011667
2/1/2013
13.48 3269.949951 0.009737828 -0.003872
1/1/2013
13.35 3282.659912 0.008308157 0.036494
12/3/2012
13.24 3167.080078 0.027950311 0.031639
11/1/2012
12.88 3069.949951 0.038709677 0.010394
10/1/2012
12.4 3038.370117 -0.034267913 -0.007179
9/3/2012
12.84 3060.340088 -0.003878976 0.011529
8/1/2012
12.89 3025.459961 -0.001549187 -0.003603
7/2/2012
12.91 3036.399902 0.063426689 0.054873

6/1/2012
5/1/2012
4/2/2012
3/1/2012
2/1/2012
1/2/2012
12/1/2011
11/1/2011
10/3/2011
9/1/2011
8/1/2011
7/1/2011
6/1/2011
5/3/2011
4/1/2011
3/1/2011
2/1/2011
1/3/2011
12/1/2010
11/1/2010
10/1/2010
9/1/2010
8/2/2010
7/1/2010
6/1/2010
5/3/2010
4/1/2010
3/1/2010
2/1/2010
1/4/2010

1-Jan
2010
2920.28

12.14
11.58
11.98
12.17
12.19
11.63
9.89
10.64
10.61
10.16
11.37
13.05
12.34
12.49
12.31
12.04
11.71
12.41
11.83
11.57
11.48
11.65
11.42
11.83
11.14
11.47
12.33
11.5
11.23
11.45

2878.449951
2772.540039
2978.570068
3010.459961
2994.060059
2906.689941
2646.350098
2702.459961
2855.77002
2675.159912
2885.26001
3189.26001
3120.439941
3159.929932
3172.72998
3105.850098
3010.51001
3179.719971
3190.040039
3144.699951
3142.620117
3097.629883
2950.330078
2987.699951
2835.51001
2752.600098
2974.610107
2887.459961
2750.860107
2745.350098

0.04835924
-0.033388982
-0.015612161
-0.001640689
0.048151333
0.175935288
-0.070488722
0.002827521
0.044291339
-0.106420405
-0.128735632
0.057536467
-0.012009608
0.014622258
0.022425249
0.028181042
-0.056406124
0.049027895
0.02247191
0.007839721
-0.014592275
0.020140105
-0.03465765
0.061938959
-0.028770706
-0.069748581
0.072173913
0.024042743
-0.019213974
#DIV/0!

0.0382
-0.069171
-0.010593
0.005477
0.030058
0.098377
-0.020763
-0.053684
0.067514
-0.072818
-0.09532
0.022055
-0.012497
-0.004034
0.021534
0.031669
-0.053215
-0.003235
0.014418
0.000662
0.014524
0.049927
-0.012508
0.053673
0.030121
-0.074635
0.030182
0.049657
0.002007
#DIV/0!

1-Jan
1-Jan
7-Jan
6-Jan
2011
2012
2013
2014
3254.25
2713.02
3218.26 3123.82
1.114362 0.833685181 1.186227894 0.970655
0.0265003 GEOMETRIC MEAN
1.13971263

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total
Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable 1
Adjusted beta
E(Ri)=RFR+[E(Rm)-RFR]
E(Ri)=0.0228+1.0985[0.0628-0.0228]
0.0667394
6.67%

f(x) = 1.1477279148x + 0.003413

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

f(x) = 1.1477279148x + 0.003413

-0.15

retention ratio

5-Jan
2015
3328.28
1.0654519146 HPR

-0.1

-0.05

tatistics
0.817714
0.6686561
0.6640541
0.0316592
74

df

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 0.145632 0.145632 145.2969 6.11E-019
72 0.072166 0.001002
73 0.217798

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
0.0034133 0.003681 0.927324 0.356856 -0.003924 0.010751 -0.003924
1.1477279 0.095216 12.05392 6.11E-019 0.957918 1.337538 0.957918
1.098485

28-0.0228]

0.2
0.15
f(x) = 1.1477279148x + 0.0034133434

0.1
0.05
0

-0.05

0
-0.05

0.05

0.1

f(x) = 1.1477279148x + 0.0034133434

0.1
0.05
0

-0.05

0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2

22,752,000

0.05

0.1

Upper 95.0%
0.010751
1.337538

Column D
0.1

0.15

Column D
0.1

0.15

FCFE
Net Income + (Depreciation expense - Capital expenditure) - change in working capital - principle deb
Net Income
Depreciation Expense
Capital Expenditure

2. DDM
1-0.32151
0.1128

4567000000
251000000
334000000

0.67849 retained ratio

ROE
0.07653367 Growth
0.1076 k

dividend payout ratio/(k*growth)

dividend payout ratio
pe = current share price/eps1
eps 0
0.6
eps1
0.6459204
current share price
25.2178853

DDM

PE
1-retained ratio

rking capital - principle debt repayment + new debt issue

39.04178
0.32151

YEAR

DIVIDEND PER SHARES

% CHANGE/ GROWTH
0.56 N/A
0.56
0
0.58
-0.98
0.58
0
0.6
0.0345

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
DIVIDEND FORECAST
2016-2018

2019-2020

growth

0.085

0.095

0.187

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

RF= 0.0

MAR

BETA

0.144
1.06
1.07
1.08

0.34108
0.34252

1.098485277
1.1
1.2
1.3

0.3451818799
0.3454
0.3598
0.3742

DIVIDEND GROWTH RATE SENSITIVITY

GROWTH RATE
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05

0.55
-1.1627906977
-1.1156186613
-1.1156186613
-1.0721247563
6.3218390805
#VALUE!

dividend

k(capm)

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

0.651
0.706335
0.766373475
0.8391789551
0.9147050611

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

DIVIDEND PER SHARES

0.56
0.56
0.58
0.58
0.6

YEAR

YEAR

FORECASTED DDM

2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 ONWARDS
GROWTH

0.08706225

K
0.61
0.6296808
0.6476707805
0.6626578823
0.6798869873
19.0608337881

0.01
0.02

0.3798869873
7.556161562
8.6624113519

0.03
0.04
0.05

10.3708755438
13.3572025088
19.911550986

0.0667394

DIVIDEND PAYOUT (D0)

0.4798869873
8.8448411648
10.2422959255
12.4004897077
16.1729259803
24.4526161242

0.914685

p=

constant in 0.07
d2016/(k-g)
0.64/(0.08706225-0.07)
37.5097071019

growth

dividend payout
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05

17.0608337881
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01

18.0608337881
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01

16.459718036
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%

19.0608337881
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357

18.0608337881
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357

PAYOUT RATIO RETAINED RATIO ROE

0.43855
0.56145
0.35862
0.64138
0.37473
0.62527
0.36283
0.63717
0.32151
0.67849

GROWTH rate P
0.06
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.08

0.1063
0.1207
0.1078
0.1101
0.1163

80.00

2020 and more

0.09

0.1642
GORDON MODEL
0.154
0.35024
0.35178
0.35332
0.3561667327
0.3564
0.3718
0.3872

0.56
-43.07692308
-186.6666667
80
32.941176471
20.740740741
15.135135135

MARKET RISK PREMIUM

0.1642
0.174
0.361052
0.37144
0.362694
0.37318
0.364336
0.37492

0.367371

0.378136438
0.36762
0.3784
0.38404
0.3958
0.40046
0.4132

DIVIDEND PAYOUT
0.57
0.58
-43.8461538462 -44.6153846
-190 -193.333333
81.4285714286 82.85714286
33.5294117647 34.11764706
21.1111111111 21.48148148
15.4054054054 15.67567568

0.184
0.38204
0.38388
0.38572

0.194
0.39264
0.39458
0.39652

0.389121291 0.400106144
0.3894
0.4004
0.4078
0.4198
0.4262
0.4392
po=

d0(1+g) / r-g

0.59
-45.38461538
-196.6666667
84.285714286
34.705882353
21.851851852
15.945945946

0.6
-46.15384615
-200
85.71428571
35.29411765
22.22222222
16.21621622

p2015

growth

315.6746272

p
d 2015
0.085 342.506970542
371.620063038
406.923969027
0.095 -115.23480345
0.09

PAYOUT RATIO RETAINED RATIO ROE

0.43855
0.56145
0.35862
0.64138
0.37473
0.62527
0.36283
0.63717
0.32151
0.67849

0.6

0.1063
0.1207
0.1078
0.1101
0.1163

YEAR
1
2
3
4
5
5

GROWTH rate
0.06
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.08
GROWTH
0.013
0.036
0.02857
0.02314
0.026
0.03

PV
0.569773649
0.553354924
0.533555126
0.511747847
0.492203898
13.79908259

D PAYOUT (D0)
0.5798869873 0.6798869873 0.779886987
10.133520768 11.4222003706 12.71087997
11.822180499 13.4020650726 14.98194965
14.430103872 16.459718 18.4893322
18.988649452 21.8043729234 24.62009639
28.993681262 33.5347464005 38.07581154
16.45971804
1%
2%
7%
8%
9%

19.060833788 20.0608337881 21.06083379

0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01

19.060833788
16.459718036
16.459718036
16.459718036
16.459718036
16.459718036

20.0608337881
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357
16.4597180357

21.06083379
16.45971804
16.45971804
16.45971804
16.45971804
16.45971804

Period
2011
0.087

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

market return risk free rat

0.087

NPV

16.459718
1.43199547

53.3111575
41.2552255
41.2552255
41.2552255
41.2552255
41.2552255

53.4111575
41.3276204
41.3276204
41.3276204
41.3276204
41.3276204

53.5111575
41.4000154
41.4000154
41.4000154
41.4000154
41.4000154

53.6111575
41.4724103
41.4724103
41.4724103
41.4724103
41.4724103

53.71115749
41.544805285
41.544805285
41.544805285
41.544805285
41.544805285

market risk premium

year

2011
3235.77
2688.36
3201.74
3174.65
3370.59
awal
akhir

2010
2682.3

2009
3369.95

2008

2007