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Chest: Risk Factors For Extubation Failure in Patients Following A Successful Spontaneous Breathing Trial
Chest: Risk Factors For Extubation Failure in Patients Following A Successful Spontaneous Breathing Trial
Original Research
CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE
Background: To assess the factors associated with reintubation in patients who had successfully
passed a spontaneous breathing trial.
Methods: We used logistic regression and recursive partitioning analyses of prospectively
collected clinical data from adults admitted to ICUs of 37 hospitals in eight countries, who had
undergone invasive mechanical ventilation for > 48 h and were deemed ready for extubation.
Results: Extubation failure occurred in 121 of the 900 patients (13.4%). The logistic regression
analysis identified the following associations with reintubation: rapid shallow breathing index
(RSBI) [odds ratio (OR), 1.009 per unit; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.003 to 1.015]; positive
fluid balance (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.53); and pneumonia as the reason for initiating
mechanical ventilation (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.84). The recursive partitioning analysis
allowed the separation of patients into different risk groups for extubation failure: (1) RSBI of
> 57 breaths/L/min and positive fluid balance (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.8 to 4.8); (2) RSBI of < 57
breaths/L/min and pneumonia as reason for mechanical ventilation (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.6);
(3) RSBI of > 57 breaths/L/min and negative fluid balance (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.8 to 2.5); and (4)
RSBI of < 57 breaths/L/min (OR, 1 [reference value]).
Conclusions: Among routinely measured clinical variables, RSBI, positive fluid balance 24 h prior
to extubation, and pneumonia at the initiation of ventilation were the best predictors of
extubation failure. However, the combined predictive ability of these variables was weak.
(CHEST 2006; 130:1664 1671)
Key words: artificial respiration; extubation; predictive index; reintubation; ventilator weaning
Abbreviations: CI confidence interval; OR odds ratio; RSBI rapid shallow breathing index
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Original Research
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Results
A total of 980 patients fulfilled the study entry
criteria and were electively extubated. We excluded
from our analysis two patients who required immediate reintubation because of upper airway obstruction (ie, glottic edema), and 78 patients in whom the
data for the predictor variables had not been re-
Reintubated
(n 121)
Not Reintubated
(n 779)
p Value
60 (17)
53 (44)
38 (10)
55 (19)
299 (38)
37 (9)
0.006
0.26
0.36
14 (12)
1 (1)
8 (7)
3 (2.5)
21(17)
7 (6)
9 (7)
28 (23)
16 (13)
8 (7)
73 (9)
18 (2)
41 (5)
14 (2)
158 (20)
44 (6)
41 (5)
115 (15)
97 (12.5)
109 (14)
0.45
0.29
0.54
0.61
0.45
0.95
0.33
0.02
0.81
0.03
62 (51)
10 (8)
348 (45)
43 (5.5)
0.18
0.23
67 (55)
22 (18)
29 (24)
5 (712)
465 (60)
91 (12)
183 (23.5)
4 (711)
0.81
0.05
0.90
0.39
7.42 (0.06)
39 (9)
103 (33)
97 (2)
7.43 (0.05)
40 (9)
101 (36)
97 (4)
0.06
0.84
0.62
0.37
0.20
68 (56)
25 (21)
28 (23)
33 (27)
47 (39)
40 (33)
41 (34)
10 (8)
31 (26)
58 (48)
32 (14)
50 (3572)
293 (8041,494)
480 (62)
170 (22)
129 (17)
178 (23)
249 (32)
238 (31)
257 (33)
98 (13)
231 (30)
448 (57)
34 (15)
45 (3363)
109 (1,200888)
0.28
0.13
0.60
0.85
0.17
0.36
0.05
0.28
0.02
0.004
Original Research
Figure 1. Reintubation rate by RSBI group. Patients were divided into categories according to RSBI
values immediately prior to extubation using arbitrary steps of 25 breaths/min/L. Columns depict the
reintubation rate for each category. The numbers on top of the columns are the numeric reintubation
rates, while the numbers placed inside the columns indicate the number of patients in each category.
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Figure 2. Reintubation rate by fluid balance category. Patients were divided into categories according
to fluid balance in the 24 h prior to extubation using arbitrary steps of 1 L. Columns depict the
reintubation rate for each category. The numbers on top of the columns are the numeric reintubation
rates, while the numbers placed inside the columns indicate the number of patients in each category.
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Original Research
Figure 3. Recursive partitioning tree. Results of the recursive partitioning analysis are illustrated,
whereby each patient is ultimately assigned to one of four distinct risk groups for reintubation. Patients
are first divided according to their RSBI, and subsequently either by their fluid balance or the presence
of pneumonia as their reason for the initiation of ventilation. The proportions (percentage) of patients
reintubated in each group are displayed.
Table 2Risk Subgroups for Reintubation From the Recursive Partitioning Analysis*
Risk Subgroup
RSBI
RSBI
RSBI
RSBI
57
57
57
57
breaths/min/L
breaths/min/L
breaths/min/L
breaths/min/L
and
and
and
and
Extubation
Failure
Reintubation
36 (24)
18 (17)
20 (13)
47 (10)
3.0 (1.84.8)
2.0 (1.13.6)
1.4 (0.82.5)
1
Likelihood Ratio
(95% CI)
2.0
1.3
0.9
0.7
(1.52.8)
(0.82.1)
(0.61.5)
(0.50.8)
*Values are given as No. (%) or OR (95% CI), unless otherwise indicated.
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1669
tion, but this variable did not retain statistical significance in the multivariate analysis. Cough strength,
amount of secretions, level of consciousness, or
patient cooperation was not associated with extubation outcome in our study. There are several reasons
that may explain the differences between our findings and those of the previous studies. In our cohort,
the decision to extubate was protocolized; however,
the physician in charge of the patient made the final
decision, and it is possible that some physicians
delayed extubation until patients showed an improvement in some of these variables. Furthermore,
in our study the frequency of weak cough and/or
abundant amount of secretions was lower than previously observed. We also observed differences in
the reintubation rate of patients with the worst-case
clinical scenario, as described by Salam et al.16 These
investigators found that all patients who were unable
to cooperate, and had abundant secretions and a
weak cough required reintubation. In our study,
these three conditions were all present in 5% of the
population, but their reintubation rate was only 17%.
In summary, in a large cohort of mechanically
ventilated patients passing a spontaneous breathing
test and judged clinically appropriate to extubate, we
were able to demonstrate that the RSBI, a positive
fluid balance 24 h prior to extubation, and pneumonia as the cause for initiating mechanical ventilation
were the best predictors of extubation failure. However, the combined predictive ability of these variables was weak, as evidenced by likelihood ratios that
result in only modest changes from the pretest
probability of extubation failure. Future studies are
needed to search for other variables that are predictive of extubation failure while still being widely
applicable in routine care.
Appendix: Participating Study
Investigators
Argentina
S. Bauque and S. Giannasi (Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires);
L. Bettini and A.R. Diez (Hospital Provincial del Centenario de
Rosario); H.S. Canales (Hospital Interzonal General de Agudos
General San Martin de la Plata de Mar del Plata); M.F. Costa and
H. Solar (Hospital Profesor Posadas de Haedo); P.M. Desmery
and A. Gomez (Sanatorio Mitre de Buenos Aires); P. Gomez and
O. Yunk (Hospital Espanol de Buenos Aires); M. Grill and W.
Vazquez (Hospital Espanol de Mendoza); E. Turchetto (Hospital
Privado de la Comunidad de Mar del Plata); and R. Valentn
(Centro de Estudios Medicos e Investigaciones Clnicas de
Buenos Aires).
Brazil
M.A. Soares and I.M. de Oliveira Rezende (Hospital Universitario Sao Jose, Belo Horizonte).
Colombia
B. Gil (Clnica Medelln de Medelln); M. Granados (Fundacion Valle de Lily de Cali); A. Guerra (Hospital General de
Medelln and Clnica Soma de Medelln); and F. Molina (Clnica
Universitaria Bolivariana de Medelln).
Saudi Arabia
S. Haddad (King Fahad National Guard Hospital of Riyadh).
Spain
A. Abella and M. Prieto (Hospital Universitario de Getafe,
Madrid); J.M. Allegue and S. Rodrguez Fernandez (Hospital
Santa Maria del Rosell, Cartagena); S. Alonso and C. Boque
(Hospital Universitario Joan XXIII, Tarragona); A. Belenguer and
T. Mut (Hospital General de Castellon); S. Benito and A.
Claramunt (Hospital de Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Barcelona); J.
Blanco (Hospital del Ro Hortega, Valladolid); J.L. Buenda and
J.A. Gomez Rub (Hospital Virgen de la Arrixaca, El Palmar); R.
Fernandez Fernandez and M.M. Fernandez Fernandez
(Complejo Hospitalari de Parc Taul, Sabadell); J. Gener and R.
Tomas (Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona); S. Macias and
F. Martnez Soba (Hospital General de Segovia); and F. Esteban
and I. Vallverdu (Hospital Universitari de Reus, Tarragona).
United States
J. Houtchens and T. Liesching (Rhode Island Hospital, Brown
University Medical School, Providence, RI); A. Pelaez and D.
Vines (University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio);
and N. Singh (New England Medical Center, Tufts University
School of Medicine, Boston).
Venezuela
M. Capdevielle (Hospital Universitario de Caracas); J.M. Espana (Hospital Universitario de Caracas); A. Medina (Hospital
Militar); F. Perez (Hospital de Clnicas de Caracas); and R.A.
Zerpa (Hospital Militar).
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