OPERA-CLIMA A Raport A2.2 Monitorizare Efecte Si Riscuri Climatice en

Romania
Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program
Monitoring Climate Change Effects and Risks in

Romania: Situation and Needs Assessment
(Note: This is the output A2.2 which has the following description in the Advisory Service
Agreement -- Report on monitoring climate change effects risks, including the needs
assessment in terms of: (i) tools for detection, early warning and alert systems, as well as
risk mapping and assessment, (ii) mapping out and assessing the risks, and (iii) investments
in disaster management monitoring systems.)
August 2014
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The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect
the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.
They are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World
Bank, or its affiliated organizations, or to members of its board of executive directors for the
countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in
this study and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The
boundaries, colors, denominations, other information shown on any map in this volume do not
imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status or any territory or
the endorsement of acceptance of such boundaries.
Table of Contents
Abbreviations and Acronyms ........................................................................................................................ 7
Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................................... 8
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 9
1.
2.
3.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 13
1.1
Scope and objective of this study ............................................................................................... 13
1.2
The need for monitoring CC-related impacts and risks .............................................................. 14
1.3
Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 14
Hazards and climate change effects in Romania ................................................................................ 15

2.1
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 15
2.2
Climate change effects ................................................................................................................ 15
2.3
Floods .......................................................................................................................................... 16
2.4
Droughts...................................................................................................................................... 18
2.5
Landslides .................................................................................................................................... 20
2.6
Wildfires ...................................................................................................................................... 21
Hazard and risk monitoring in Romania.............................................................................................. 22

3.1
Overview of the current monitoring systems in Romania .......................................................... 22
3.2
National Administration for Romanian Waters (NARW) ............................................................ 23
3.2.1
Monitoring of water quality ................................................................................................ 24
3.2.2
Hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring .................................................................... 26
3.2.3
Gaps, improvement and investment needs ........................................................................ 30
3.3
National Administration for Meteorology (NAM)....................................................................... 31
3.3.1
Meteorological monitoring system ..................................................................................... 32
3.3.2
Gaps improvements and investment needs ....................................................................... 35
3.4
General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES) .............................................................. 37

3
4.
3.4.1
Monitoring of climate-related risks .................................................................................... 39
3.4.2
Gaps improvements and investment needs ....................................................................... 41
Risk assessment example for river floods in Romania ........................................................................ 44

4.1
4.1.1
Background ......................................................................................................................... 44
4.1.2
Method................................................................................................................................ 44
4.1.3
Limitations........................................................................................................................... 45
4.2
Results for Romania .................................................................................................................... 46
4.2.1
Current risk Average Annual Loss .................................................................................... 46
4.2.2
Current risk for a flood event with a return period of 25 year ........................................... 49
4.2.3
Future Risk .......................................................................................................................... 52
4.3
5.
Approach ..................................................................................................................................... 44
Use of risk assessment in monitoring of climate-related risk..................................................... 53
Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 55
References .................................................................................................................................................. 58
Annex 1: Risk ............................................................................................................................................... 59
Annex 2: Relevant National Legislation on Reduction and Prevention of Disasters .................................. 63
List of figures
Figure 2-1 Multiannual mean changes (2011-2040 vs. 1916-1990): in air temperatrure (in C on the left)
and in in precipitation (in % on the right). .................................................................................................. 16
Figure 2-2 Flood prone areas in Romania, source NARW ........................................................................... 17
Figure 2-3 Historical annual average losses due to regional and flash floods, source NARW .................... 18
Figure 2-4 Historical river flow droughts in Europe, source: European Environmental Agency, River flow
drought (CLIM 18) Assessment, http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/river-flowdrought-1/assessment ................................................................................................................................ 19
Figure 2-5 Relative change in minim river flow for Europe, source: European Environmental Agency,
River flow drought (CLIM 18) Assessment, http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/riverflow-drought-1/assessment........................................................................................................................ 20
Figure 2-6 Landslide prone areas in Romania, source National Institute for Earths Physics (NIEP)........... 21
Figure 3-1 River basins in Romania, source NARW ..................................................................................... 24
Figure 3-2 Map of the Hydrologic Monitoring System of Romania, source MECC (note: this map is over
20 years old and the name of Yugoslavia (Iugoslavia in Romanian) should be read Serbia to correct the
present name of the Romania neighbor country). ..................................................................................... 25
Figure 3-3 Map of the Hydrologic Monitoring System of Romania, source MECC (note: this map is over
20 years old and the name of Yugoslavia (Iugoslavia in Romanian) should be read Serbia to correct the
present name of the Romania neighbor country). ..................................................................................... 27
Figure 3-4 Ground water monitoring system in the Arges-Vedea river basin, source NARW.................... 28
Figure 3-5 Surface water monitoring system for the Arges-Vedea river basin, source NARW .................. 29
Figure 3-6 National Meteorological Station network, source: NAM .......................................................... 33
Figure 3-7 National Meteorological Radar Network, source: NAM ............................................................ 34
Figure 3-8 National Lightning Detection Network, source: NAM ............................................................... 34
Figure 3-9 Emergency interventions by GIES in 2013, source: GIES ........................................................... 39
Figure 3-10 Climate-related risk monitoring and management diagram for Romania .............................. 40
Figure 3-11 Fire interventions by GIES in 2013, source: GIES ..................................................................... 41
Figure 3-12 Trends in interventions, personnel and budget for GIES; declining personnel and limited
budget in the face of increasing interventions, source: compiled by the authors based on information
supplied by GIES.......................................................................................................................................... 42
Figure 4-1 Current Annual Average Loss for affected GDP, in US dollars ................................................... 47
Figure 4-2 Current Annual Average Loss for affected people, in number of affected people ................... 48
Figure 4-3 Affected GDP for a flood event with a return period of 25 years ............................................. 51
Figure 4-4 Affected people for a flood event with a return period of 25 years ......................................... 51
Abbreviations and Acronyms

AAL
CC
EU
ECMRF
EUMETNET
EUMETSAT
GIES (IGSU)
GFDRR
GDP
GNP
GoR
IPCC
WQL (WQL)
MECC (MMSC)
MFF
NAM (ANM)
NARW (ANAR)
NEMS
NIEP (INFP)
NIWMS
NSHHW
RAS
WFD
WMO
Average Annual Loss

Climate Change
European Union
European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts
Operational Program for the Exchange of Weather Radar Information
European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites
General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
Gross Domestic Product
Gross National Product
Government of Romania
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Water Quality Laboratories
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change
Multi-annual Financial Framework
National Administration for Meteorology
National Administration for Romanian Waters
National Emergency Management Systems
National Institute for Earth Physics
National Integrated Water Monitoring System
National System of Hydrological and Hydrogeological Watch
Reimbursable Advisory Services
Water Framework Directive
World Meteorological Organization
Acknowledgements
This Report has been prepared by the World Bank for the Government of Romania as an output of the
World Bank Advisory Services Program on Climate Change and Low-Carbon Green Growth in Romania,
at the request of the Government of Romania through its Ministry of Environment and Climate Change.
The World Bank program is managed by Jian Xie and Erika Jorgensen, under the general guidance of
Mamta Murthi, Kulsum Ahmed, Satu Kristiina Kahkonen, and Elisabetta Capannelli from the World Bank.
The document was prepared by Ionut Purica and Annegien Tijssen, with inputs from Joaquin Toro,
Richard Murnane, Vica Rosario Bogaerts, and Yewondwossen Asseffa, Adina Fagarasan, Thierry Davy,
Cosmin Buteica, Bianca Moldovean and Marcel Ionescu-Heroiu. The work was carried out over the
period of May - September 2014 and is based upon discussions with and information received from the
officials from a number of government departments and agencies, including the Ministry of
Environment and Climate Change and the National Institute of Statistics, the General Inspectorate for
Emergency Situations, the National Administration Romanian Waters, the National Administration for
Meteorology, and the National institute for Earth Physics. Special thanks Adriana Iordanova Damianova,
Jian Xie, Joaquin Toro, Alanna Leigh Simpson, Kseniya Lvovsky and Tamara Levine for their review and
contribution to the final version of the report.
The World Bank would also like to express gratitude to the Romanian Government for the excellent
working relations established during this assignment and especially the support of Nicoleta Rosu,
Mihaela Smarandache, from the MECC Climate Change General Directorate, the staff and members of
the Project Implementing Unit in the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, namely, Narcis Jeler,
Alexandra Ulmeanu, Gabriela Popescu and special thanks to NAM director general Ion Sandu, NARW
Director Ovidiu Gabor, and their respective teams. Also thanks to Colonel. Eugen Visan, Deputy Director
General of GIES.
Executive Summary
Romania is vulnerable to several climate-related and geological natural hazards: floods, landslides, wind
storms, droughts, extreme temperatures as well as earthquakes. The country has recorded some
devastating earthquakes and floods in its history, which have caused numerous deaths and economic
losses.
Implemented jointly by the World Bank and MECC, the Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth
Program1 aims to enable Romania to advance towards attaining the Europe 2020 Strategy objective.
The objective provides EU Member States a framework and means for moving towards a greener and
more competitive low carbon economy which makes efficient use of resources and is resilient to
climate-related risk.
This A2.2 report is part of the Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program. This studys
objective is to understand the current situation of monitoring CC impacts and climate-related risks, and
assess the gaps and the needs required for improving the monitoring system in Romania.
The need for monitoring CC-related impacts and risks
With climate change contributing to an increased risk of disasters, disaster risk management becomes a
vital and urgent component of any climate change adaptation program. As part of climate change
adaptation policies and investments, Romania needs to focus on understanding how to reduce their
vulnerability and plan for measures to mitigate natural disaster risks.
To become more resilient to climate-related events, a country could invest in prevention and protection
measures to mitigate its risk. It is therefore essential to monitor climate-related risk on a national scale.
Risk assessments can be used to identify those regions in Romania most at risk for natural disasters. The
results of risk assessments can be used to prioritize risk mitigation or climate adaptation measures
necessary for a climate-resilient economy. The availability of reliable hazard and climate data is key to a
good risk assessment.
Another way of reducing vulnerability to natural risk is to invest in forecasting and early warning
systems, these can save lives and reduce losses. Crucial to well-functioning early warning system is the
ability to make reliable forecasts of hazards, which again highly depends on the availability of reliable
hazard and climate data. It is therefore critical for countries to invest in good quality monitoring systems
for hazard and climate data, as these monitoring systems are the basis for climate change adaptation
policies and investments.
A Reimbursable Advisory Service (RAS) Program developed by the World Bank in conjunction with MECC.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/romania/brief/romania-climate-change-and-low-carbon-green-growthprogram
Monitoring climate-related risks on a national level

The monitoring of climate-related parameters is executed by NARW and NAM. GIES is responsible for
the coordination, prevention and management of emergency situations. As such, it monitors the
imminence of emergency situations. For the forecasting of climate-related emergency situations such
as (but not limited to) floods, droughts and wildfires it relies heavily on information from NARW and
NAM.
To monitor the climate-related risk, it is also important to assess the impact or damage of climaterelated hazards such as floods, droughts, landslides and wildfires. Several organizations have assessed
the impact of historical events, but there is no standard methodology nor is there a national database
for damage information on historical events. The identification of the most climate-related risk prone
areas in Romania can be improved when reliable damage information is accessible through a national
database.
The communication network between GIES, other agencies and authorities relies on relatively old
equipment and it needs updating as soon as possible. Adequate monitoring and managing of climaterelated risk depends severely on a communication system that allows online, continuous and fast
information sharing between all agencies and stakeholders. Fast data acquisition and processing is
essential to support decision making, especially in the case of emergencies. A well-functioning,
automated communication system would allow the country to benefit more from early warning
announcements. The monitoring of climate-related risks would benefit from an upgrade in terms of
both field equipment fixed and mobile and servers including modern software that allows transferring
of information in a bidirectional way, and has advanced data processing and storage functions.
In the context of the National Strategy for CC, the local authorities need to update and improve their risk
assessment and contingency plans using climate scenarios provided by the NAM. Based on early
warnings provided by NAM and NARW, local authorities assess the interventions needed to mitigate the
risk. It is important that local decision makers have a thorough understanding of the complex
information provided by NAM and NARW. Climate-related risk assessment and management by local
authorities would benefit from providing proper training to local decision makers on how to interpret
and use information from NAM and NARW.
Local authorities often have to respond to the media during emergency situations. When used properly,
the media can be extremely helpful in disseminating early warning announcements, status updates and
instructions to the general public. Providing media training to local authorities and educating the media
on natural disasters such as (flash) floods, landslides or wild fires will enhance the quality of
disseminated information and reduce the amount of sensationalized media coverage. Educating the
general public on the meaning of color-coded early warning announcements and related instructions
during emergency situations will save lives.
10
Monitoring systems for climate-related parameters

Both the NARW and NAM would benefit from improving and automating their monitoring systems to
maintain present capabilities and to meet EU requirements. The quantitative hydrological and
hydrogeological monitoring system would benefit from an update of equipment, which predominantly
means replacing manual hydrometric and evapometric stations with automatic stations, and manual
drills with automatic high depth drills. The main advantage of automated data collection over manual
data collection is the improvement of continuity and quality of the collected data. It also improves the
process of data storage and sharing with other stakeholders.
The creation of a national laboratory for water quality testing is required by the EU in order to facilitate
the interaction with laboratories in neighboring countries and to align water quality monitoring between
Romania and neighboring countries. To improve their technical capability, the regional and local
laboratories need new equipment for sampling of water, sediments and biota, for sample preparation,
for analytical determinations, for biological analysis and for IT purposes to update and extend their
current monitoring system.
It is expected that the further automation of the monitoring system will lead to (quasi) real time transfer
of data to the national meteorological database, directly increasing the volume and quality of data in
this database. On top that, the data quality control system is in need of a redesign based on WMO
guidelines for metadata management. The intranet access to the national meteorological database
could be improved. Overall, this would lead to an increase in the availability of reliable data.
The development of an INSPIRE2-compatible geo-portal would give users access to meteorological
information through several intuitive web interfaces, which are adaptable per user-profile. Standardized
technologies and protocols including Web Map Service, Web Feature Service, Web Coverage Service
and Catalogue Service for the Web protocols would enable users to have rapid access to operational
meteorological data.
Both NARW and NAM require investments in capacity building. First of all, it will be necessary to provide
hands on training on new equipment to personnel. However, both agencies could also benefit from
investments in capacity building for the other parts of the monitoring process such as data processing
and extending the knowledge on methods and models for forecasting, which are necessary capacity
when the country wants to improve not only data monitoring, but also risk monitoring. Data collection is
only a small link in the whole risk monitoring process.
The use of risk assessments for monitoring climate-related risk
Using risk assessments to identify which regions are most-likely to be impacted by these extreme
climate-related events, can be beneficiary for GIES to allocate its budget, personnel and equipment in
Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community, http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/
11
preparation of interventions. It can also be used to prioritize the monitoring investments needed to
improve Romanias climate risk monitoring system.
Results of risk assessments at a national level can obviously be used to prioritize further, and more
detailed, research for those regions most at risk. To assess the extent of the impact of climate-related
risk in these regions, further research should use higher-resolution models that include existing
vulnerability information and input from local experts. When necessary, risk mitigation or climate
adaptation measures can be prioritized and designed based on these new and more detailed results.
When major investments are made, either in risk mitigation or climate adaptation measures, or in
improving the climate-related risk monitoring system, it is recommended to assess not only the current
risk, but also future risk, to ensure resilient investments in the light of CC and socio-economic
developments.
12
1. Introduction
1.1 Scope and objective of this study
Romania is vulnerable to several climate-related and geological natural hazards: floods, landslides, wind
storms, droughts, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. The country has recorded some devastating
earthquakes and floods in its history, which have caused numerous deaths and economic losses.
As a member state of the European Union (EU), Romania is committed to fighting climate change (CC)
and developing low carbon initiatives. The 2014-2020 Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF) adopted
by the European Council in February 2013 requires that climate-related expenditures be increased to at
least 20 percent of EU spending. Per the European Council, the MFF will mainstream climate objectives,
which will contribute to building a low-carbon, resource efficient and climate resilient economy.
Therefore, the Government of Romania (GoR), through the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change
(MECC), has requested that the World Bank provide analytical and advisory assistance to help meet this
commitment.
Implemented jointly by the World Bank and MECC, the Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth
Program3 aims to enable Romania to advance towards attaining the Europe 2020 Strategy objective.
The objective provides EU Member States a framework and the means for moving towards a greener
and more competitive low carbon economy which makes efficient use of resources and is resilient to
climate-related risk.
This A2.2 report is part of the Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program. This studys
objective is to understand the current situation of monitoring CC impacts and climate-related risks, and
assess the gaps and needs required for improving the monitoring system in Romania, which will include:
(i) monitoring equipment, early warning and alert systems,
(ii) risk assessment and risk mapping, and
(iii) investment needs in disaster management monitoring systems.
This study examines hazards that have clear and obvious links to climatic change (i.e. those with
(hydro)meteorological origins, such as floods, wild fires, droughts, and strong winds), but focuses on
floods in detail, given their relevance for the country, and the availability of data and models to calculate
the related risk.
This report will not focus on specific climate investments in Romania as these will be addressed in
Component D2 of the Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program. Instead the focus will be
3
A Reimbursable Advisory Service (RAS) Program developed by the World Bank in conjunction with MECC.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/romania/brief/romania-climate-change-and-low-carbon-green-growthprogram
13
on the development or improvement of monitoring systems at the national level for CC impacts and
climate-related risks.
1.2 The need for monitoring CC-related impacts and risks

Central Europe is exposed to landslides, high wind, and heat waves, but one of its greatest hazards is
flooding. In fact, Romania is known as one of the most flood-prone countries in Europe. With climate
change contributing to an increased risk of disasters, disaster risk management becomes a vital and
urgent component of any climate change adaptation program. As part of climate change adaptation
policies and investments, Romania needs to focus on understanding how to reduce their vulnerability
and on planning for measures to mitigate natural disaster risks.
measures to mitigate its risk. It is therefore essential to monitor climate-related risk on a national scale.
results of risk assessments can be used to prioritize risk mitigation or climate adaptation measures
necessary for a climate-resilient economy. The availability of reliable hazard and climate data is key to a
good risk assessment.
Another way of reducing the vulnerability to natural risk is to invest in forecasting and early warning
systems, these can save lives and reduce losses. Crucial to a well-functioning early warning system is the
ability to produce reliable forecasts of hazards, which again depend on the availability of reliable hazard
and climate data. It is therefore critical for countries to invest in good quality monitoring systems for
hazard and climate data, as these monitoring systems are the basis for climate change adaptation
policies and investments.
This report will not focus on specific climate investments in Romania, as these will be addressed in
Component D2 of the Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program. This study will focus on
the development or improvement of monitoring systems at the national level for CC impacts and
climate-related risks.
1.3 Overview
This report gives an overview of the current state of Romanias climate-related risk monitoring system,
and its major gaps and needs required for improvement. In chapter 2 a brief overview is given of the
climate change effects and the most important climate-related hazards in Romania. Chapter 3 provides
an overview of Romanias monitoring systems for climate related hazards, with a focus on floods,
droughts and wildfires. It also presents an assessment of the gaps and needs required for improving the
monitoring system. Chapter 4 shows how countrywide risk assessments can be used in climate-related
risk monitoring. Final conclusions can be found in chapter 5.
14
2. Hazards and climate change effects in Romania

2.1 Introduction
Romania is exposed to several climate-related and geological natural hazards. Floods, landslides, wind
storms, droughts, extreme temperatures as well as earthquakes. Romania has recorded some
devastating earthquakes and floods in its history, which have caused numerous deaths and economic
losses.
Romania is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe and consequently a nation with high
earthquake risk. Estimated losses after the 1977 earthquake were 2.05 Billion US$. Two thirds of the
total losses occurred in Bucharest, where more than 1400 people died and 32 reinforced concrete tall
buildings collapsed. The 1977 direct losses and indirect consequences probably marked the starting
point of Romanias decades-long economical decay.
Earthquakes are caused by the release of stress generated by forces related to plate tectonics or
through anthropogenic activities such as the creation of reservoirs, mining, or the injection of fluids into
underground formations. Seismic risks are not known to be directly connected to climate change.
However, climate change may affect seismicity by altering reservoir levels or the use of groundwater.
Since this study focuses on hazard with a clear and obvious link to climate change, earthquakes will not
be considered in this report.
Climate change has been observed in Europe through higher temperatures, changing precipitation and
runoff patterns, and extreme weather, leading to reports of increased incidences of weather-induced
disasters such as floods, droughts, wild fires, strong winds, and heat and cold waves in many of the
regions countries. In this report, the focus will be on floods given their relevance for the country, and
the availability of data and models to calculate the risk, but droughts and wildfires will be addressed as
well. Strong winds and even tornados have begun occurring in Romania, but their frequency is very low,
so currently does not warrant for an in-depth evaluation of their risk.
2.2 Climate change effects

The impact of climate change is already being felt in Romania, 2007 was the warmest year in two
decades (average temperature 11.5 C), while the coldest average temperature (8.4C) was registered in
1985. In 2005, Romania suffered from historic floods which caused 76 deaths and significant property
damage, and 2007 brought the countrys most severe drought in the last 60 years. The effects of these
extreme weather events adversely affected the country through economic losses in agriculture, water
management, energy supply, and transport. In a scenario of increased global warming by 4C, the
challenges and impacts of climate change would certainly cause further deterioration in Romania.
Within the last 100 years, Romania has seen an increase in temperature and an accompanying decrease
in precipitation. Romania has a transitional temperate-continental climate, and the average
temperature in the Danube Delta region, for example, is 10-12C. The mean annual air temperature
15
rose by 0.8C from 1901-2012. As for the precipitation, the analysis of the data recorded during the
same interval revealed a decrease in the annual amount of precipitation (23.6 mm). Figure 2-1 below
shows the changes.
Figure 2-1 Multiannual mean changes (2011-2040 vs. 1916-1990): in air temperatrure (in C on the left) and in in
precipitation (in % on the right).
The same trends are expected to continue and accelerate during the 21st century. In the long term, the
mean temperature increase for Romania is expected to be about 3C to 4C for summer months in the
2061-2090 timeframe compared with the 1961-1990 timeframe. In terms of precipitation, a reduction of
mean rainfall in summer months, more pronounced for higher emission scenarios and stronger towards
the end of the 21st century, is expected. More intense and localized rainfall events are likely, though
rainfall patterns may become more chaotic and difficult to predict.
2.3 Floods
Romania is known as one of the most flood-prone countries in Europe. The country has suffered the
largest death toll from floods 183 fatalities across Europe between 2002 and 2013. Historical floods
killed 1,000 people in 1926; 215 people in 1970; 60 people in 1975; 108 people in 1991; and 33 people in
1995.
Heavy rain in April and May of 2005 caused Romanias worst floods in 50 years, causing at least 1.66
billion Euro in damage. This represents 2.1% of Romanian GNP. Flooding has also impacted about
656,392 ha agricultural land, 10,420 km roads, 23.8 km of railway, 9,113 bridges and foot bridges and
contaminated 90,394 wells.
In 2006, the extreme floods that happened between April and August were among the most devastating
natural disasters in Romanias recent climate history. Estimations show that during the interval from
April to May, 12 counties were affected, with a total economic damage at over 1% of Romanian GNP.
The number of affected localities was 160; the estimated number of affected homes was 10,000. About
600 km of roads and 300 bridges were damaged, and a total of 21,000 ha of farmland was affected.
Most recently, in late June 2010 floods were the result of an extreme weather event that struck
Romania. At least 21 people died and the economic losses were about 0.6% of the GDP.
16
Figure 2-2 Flood prone areas in Romania, source NARW
Figure 2-2 gives an overview of the flood prone areas in Romania. In general, water-related hazards such
as floods generated by prolonged and/or intense precipitation are starting to occur more frequently.
The increased frequency of precipitation extremes is consistent with expected anthropogenic-induced
changes in climate. The floods occurring in the last decade have had intensities comparable to ones
recorded in the last hundred years and in a succession of only a few years apart. Moreover, the
increased frequency of localized high intensity rains has generated more flash floods that have affected
localities and produced concentrated damage. These localized processes are hard to predict and usually
their damage is recorded along with more regional floods. Figure 2-3 shows the spatial distribution of
the historical annual average loss due to these regional and flash floods.
The rise in Black Sea level due to CC is of concern. The observed impact of climate change across Europe
has been: an overall rise in sea levels in most coastal areas; changes to freshwater systems such as a
decrease in river flows in the south and east and an increase in reported flood events. Romania has
estimated that the Black Sea level will rise by between 12-25 mm/year, or up to a 0.5 m by 2050 in a
negative scenario. The Black Sea is nearly enclosed and has relatively low salinity levels (12-19 ppt) and
tides. However, when compounded by the increased intensity and frequency of flash floods and
rainstorms, it is possible there will be increased coastal erosion, loss of freshwater fauna and flora, and
significant damage to the costal infrastructure and settlements.
17
Figure 2-3 Historical annual average losses due to regional and flash floods, source NARW
One important element that may generate risk especially to health is the quality of the water. Water
quality encompasses both surface water and ground water, and is influenced by various causes such as
environmental pollution that do not relate directly to climate change. However, water quality is
definitely impacted during floods and droughts, and thus can be altered by climate change. The direct
impact of water quality on health requires that monitoring is done on both flows and quality of the
surface and ground water.
The Danube River and Danube Delta ecosystems are also evidently affected by changes upstream, such
as pollution and the manipulation of water discharge, sediment runoff in the Danube, and so on. This is
something that is already being seen, according to the Lower Danube River Administration, with
reduced water depths, meaning that the number of days during which navigation restrictions are
implemented is increasing.
2.4 Droughts
As with floods, droughts in the last decade have had intensities comparable to the ones recorded in last
hundred years and in a succession of only a few years apart. For example, the drought of 2003, when
the Danube flow was a record low, was followed by floods, in 2005, where the record flow was in the
high value range. Figure 2-4 shows an overview of historical river flow droughts and water scarcity
events in Europe. As can be seen, Romania was impacted by the droughts and water scarcity in 2002,
18
2003, 2011 and 2012. Figure 2-5 shows that there is a decrease expected in minimum river flows with a
return period of 20 years in the 21st century it is to be expected that river flow droughts will become
more frequent and of higher intensity.
Besides an increase in river flow drought intensity and frequency, large changes in seasonality are also
projected, with Romania anticipating lower flows in summer and higher flows in winter. As a
consequence, droughts and water stress are expected to increase, particularly in summer. Flood events
are projected to occur more frequently in many river basins, particularly in winter and spring, although
estimates of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain uncertain.
The Danube Delta will be significantly impacted by the rise in average annual temperature and the
increased frequency of extreme weather events. Air temperature will rise by an average of 1.5 oC by
2050, which leads to higher evaporation, more extremely hot days and a significant decrease in periods
of snow cover. Part of the area of analysis, part of the Dobrogea region, is even considered to be subject
to the threat of desertification. Projections have also shown that the changes in mean temperature and
precipitation occur along with changes in extreme phenomena statistics, including the increased
prevalence of droughts, flash floods, rainstorms, hail, etc.
Figure 2-4 Historical river flow droughts in Europe, source: European Environmental Agency, River flow drought
(CLIM 18) Assessment, http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/river-flow-drought1/assessment
19
Figure 2-5 Relative change in minim river flow for Europe, source: European Environmental Agency, River flow
drought (CLIM 18) Assessment, http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/river-flow-drought1/assessment
2.5 Landslides
Earthquakes are caused by the release of stress generated by forces related to plate tectonics or
through anthropogenic activities such as the creation of reservoirs, mining, or the injection of fluids into
underground formations. Seismic risks are not known to be directly connected to climate change.
However, climate change may affect seismicity by altering reservoir levels or the use of groundwater.
Landslides are driven by gravitational forces, but they are triggered by a variety of processes. Some of
the most common triggers include earthquakes and periods of prolonged and/or intense precipitation.
Deforestation can increase the likelihood of landslide occurrence. Landslides therefore may increase in
frequency as a result of climate change and its associated changes in precipitation, water flow patterns,
and vegetation. Figure 2-6 shows the landslide prone areas in Romania.
20
Figure 2-6 Landslide prone areas in Romania, source National Institute for Earths Physics (NIEP)
2.6 Wildfires
Wildfires are extreme natural events which can be triggered by natural causes, such as lightning, or by
human activities, whether intentional or not. However, even when a wildfire is started by human
intervention such as camp fires or arson, such a wildfire will be supported by climate conditions like high
temperature, high wind and low humidity.
The probability of wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate variability over a range of time scales. For
example, the inter-annual variability in climate leads to relatively wet and dry periods. In wet periods
there is a build-up of vegetation, which provides fuel for fires in dry periods. The expected increase in
seasonable variation in precipitation could lead to an increase in favorable conditions for wildfires.
The frequency of wildfires in Romania has increased in the recent past. The damage caused by wildfires
can be substantial especially from an economic point of view. In 2013, 33% of the recorded fires in
Romania were wildfires.
21
3. Hazard and risk monitoring in Romania

The institutional mandate for the coordination, prevention and management of emergency situations
lies with the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES), part of the Ministry of
Administration and Interior. All institutions are mandated to share information about the occurrence of
natural hazards with GIES. In case of an emergency, GIES coordinates and works with a wide variety of
stakeholders, including local municipalities, fire departments, medical emergency services, as well as the
police. GIES is currently in the process of assessing all risks in the country, including climate-related risks.
The first results of these risk assessments are expected by the end of 2015.
Currently, Romania lacks an adequate communication system which ensures collaboration, and sharing
of knowledge and information between all stakeholders involved in risk monitoring. It is worth noting
that the country does have a communication system in place which allows GIES to act quickly in case of
an emergency. Moving forward, however, there is a need for additional investments in reliable
information and communication technologies to improve early warnings for extreme events such as
floods or heavy snow combined with power grid disconnections which requires a stronger involvement
and coordination with other key institutions such as National Administration for Romanian Waters
(NARW) and National Administration for Meteorology (NAM).
It should be stressed that Romania develops and implements its risk monitoring systems in accordance
with EU directives and policies to ensure a consistent approach for both monitoring, and risk mitigation
and CC adaptation actions. In addressing shortcomings of the current monitoring systems, there are
three f: (i) rehabilitate operational capabilities of existing systems (ii) upgrade the systems to meet the
EU standard, and (iii) apply advanced technologies if and where available.
This chapter provides an overview of Romanias monitoring systems for climate related hazards, with a
focus on floods, droughts and wildfires. Section 3.1 gives an overview of the current monitoring systems
in Romania, including the relationships between the monitoring institutions, the monitored parameters,
the climate-related risks and emergency interventions. Sections 3.2 and 3.3 discuss the monitoring
systems of respectively NARW and NAM. Section 3.4 describes the monitoring of emergency situations
by GIES, and the interaction between GIES and the agencies NARW and NAM.
3.1 Overview of the current monitoring systems in Romania

Table 3-1 shows how climate-related hazards and risks are currently monitored in Romania and which
institutes are involved, which includes three matrices: (i) monitoring agencies and the type of
parameters monitored; (ii) climate-related parameters and the types of risk, and (iii) the types of risk
and the intervention agencies.
The climate-related parameters monitored by each agency are presented in the monitoring matrix. The
risk matrix shows the correlation between these parameters and the climate-related risks. Finally, the
intervention matrix presents the emergency interventions each agency has to its disposal in case of an
extreme event.
22
There are two types of interventions, early warning (e) and prevention/protection (p). The early warning
interventions usually include the announcements of the probability and intensity of an expected event,
using color codes starting from green innocuous via yellow and orange to red the most intense.
Prevention and protection interventions are more diverse, including (but not limited to) the use of dams
and retention areas to mitigate a flood, the evacuation of population, the supply of potable water in
contaminated areas, the use of mobile irrigation systems in areas affected by drought and the use of
special means to remove snow.
The forecasts on which the early warnings will rely are predominantly carried out by the monitoring
agencies NARW and NAM, while most of the prevention and protection measures are the responsibility
of GIES based on data and forecasts from NARW and NAM. The communication between GIES and the
NAM and NARW is discussed in more detail in section 3.4.
Table 3-1 Combined matrices correlation of monitoring, risks and intervention
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
monitoring agencies/climaterelated parameters

temperature
precipitation
wind speed,direction
air pressure
surface water levels, discharges
ground water level
water quality parameters
impact of climate-related events
Risk matrix
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
di
as
se
e
e
fir
es
e
p
p
*
*
*
*
ild
w
d
sli
ne
e
e,p
p
nd
ca
rri
do
p
p
*
la
hu
a
rn
to
ez
fre
ow
gh
od
flo
od
sn
sh
flo
e - early warning (color codes)

e
p - prevention (use of dams, evacuation of population, etc.)e,p
p
*
ou
dr
fla
climate-related
parameters/risk
*
*
e
p
e,p
e,p
e,p
e,p
risk/intervention
agencies
NAM
NAWR
GIES
Intervention
matrix
Monitoring matrix
NAM NAWR GIES
3.2 National Administration for Romanian Waters (NARW)

NARW is at the national level responsible for monitoring the surface water, ground water and the
quality of the water. NARW is responsible for 11 river basins, the groundwater system and the Black Sea
shore in Romania. Figure 3-1 shows the 11 river basins and the Black Sea shore of Romania.
Hydrological monitoring in Romania is carried out through the National Integrated Water Monitoring
System (NIWMS), which is managed by NARW. The NARW delegates its authority to basin water
management units. The first monitoring actions were initiated in 1954 and carried out systematically
from 1965 onwards. The NIWMS was implemented nationwide in 2006 by Order no. 31/2006 according
to the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC.
23
Figure 3-1 River basins in Romania, source NARW
The NWIMS is used to monitor six types of water systems: (i) rivers, (ii) lakes, (iii) transitional waters, (iv)
coastal waters, (v) groundwater and (vi) wastewater. Quantitative monitoring of water resources is
executed by the National System of Hydrological and Hydrogeological Watch (NSHHW), while the
qualitative monitoring of water resources is carried out by the Water Quality Laboratories (WQL). Both
entities are part of NARW. All water systems are monitored for water quality according to the
monitoring requirements of the WFD which includes three types of monitoring: surveillance, operational
and investigative monitoring.
The GoR relies heavily on forecasts made by the NARW for water levels and water quality.
Governmental warnings code yellow, orange or red for (extreme) water levels are based on NARW
forecasts. Governmental warnings for water quality hazards are also issued based on information from
NARW.
3.2.1 Monitoring of water quality

Water quality monitoring in Romania is supported by a network of water quality laboratories (WQL).The
NARW-WQL network is the only network of laboratories in Romania that provides full operational
monitoring in a transnational context. It operates, in line with international conventions and bilateral
agreements and it meets the European regulatory requirements (Directive 2009/90/EC).
24
At the national level, 3,399 surface water and 142 groundwater bodies have been identified. The water
quality is monitored at 1,000 surface water bodies and at all 142 groundwater bodies. In total there are
2,715 water quality monitoring sections and points, including:
1400 monitoring sections for surface water (rivers, lakes / reservoirs, transitional waters, coastal
waters), and
1315 monitoring points (springs and drains)
In most cases, the same locations are used for water quality monitoring as for hydrological monitoring,
which means that the coverage for water quality is roughly the same as for water quantity. For an
indication of the coverage of water quality monitoring in Romania on can therefore refer to Figure 3-2.
Figure 3-2 Map of the Hydrologic Monitoring System of Romania, source MECC (note: this map is over 20 years
old and the name of Yugoslavia (Iugoslavia in Romanian) should be read Serbia to correct the present name of
the Romania neighbor country).
Samples of water are collected at the monitoring points at periodic time intervals. These samples are
analyzed in the WQLs for water quality parameters. On top of that, these samples will (in specific cases)
be used for additional monitoring and control of regulatory indicators such as general physicochemical parameters, heavy metals, toxic pollutants, specific organic micro-pollutants, biological
indicators.
25
Depending on the complexity of analyses, laboratory work in the NARW-WQL is carried out in different,
hierarchical laboratories. The WQLs comprise:
Local Laboratories - 30 laboratories of the Water Management System which analyze: general
physico-chemical parameters, toxic pollutants, and biological indicators of water and sediment;
2. Basin Laboratories - 7 laboratories in the Water Basin Administration headquarters which
analyze, in addition to local laboratories, determinations of ichtyofauna and basin specific
pollutants in water and sediments;
3. Regional Laboratories: 4 laboratories which are performing, in addition to the basin
laboratories, analyses of priority substances and priority-hazards according to HG 1038/2010;
4. National Laboratory 1 national laboratory which coordinates the activity of water quality labs
and develops new methods of testing based on their research work.
1.
To ensure data quality, WQL carries out the following systematic activities:
Maintaining and improving the quality system in accordance with the requirements of SR EN ISO
17025/2005;
Improving the analytical performance parameters limits of detection, limits of quantification
and applicability domain in direct response to internal customer requirements and in
compliance with the laws HG 1038 / 2010 and GD 80/2011;
Participating in proficiency testing schemes such as interlaboratory benchmarking organized
both by domestic and international suppliers, and
Training specialized staff through courses, training and testing.
3.2.2 Hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring

Quantitative monitoring of water resources is executed at the national level by the National System of
Hydrological and Hydrogeological Watch (NSHHW). Their monitoring system consists of:
905 hydrometric station on rivers

44 gauging stations and measuring sections on the Danube
7 gauging stations and measuring sections in the Black Sea
158 gauging station for retention areas
990 rainfall measuring stations
712 satellites
947 flow meters for endusers
416 stream gauges
Bathymetry measurement equipment for 29 lakes
13 lake evaporimetric stations
42 evaporimetric inter-basins stations
3120 drillings for groundwater
The spatial coverage of Romanias hydrological monitoring system is shown in Figure 3-3. This map is
over 20 years old. More recent maps are, upon request, available at the NARW for each river basin. The
maps of the groundwater and surface water monitoring systems for the Arges-Vedea river basin are
26
shown in Figure 3-4 and Figure 3-5 respectively. Due to the huge seize of these files, the maps for only
one river basin are displayed here in the report.
Figure 3-3 Map of the Hydrologic Monitoring System of Romania, source MECC (note: this map is over 20 years
old and the name of Yugoslavia (Iugoslavia in Romanian) should be read Serbia to correct the present name of
the Romania neighbor country).
27
Figure 3-4 Ground water monitoring system in the Arges-Vedea river basin, source NARW
28
Figure 3-5 Surface water monitoring system for the Arges-Vedea river basin, source NARW
29
3.2.3 Gaps, improvement and investment needs

There are serious gaps in Romanias hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring system. These gaps
could be addressed through investments in the NIWMS, together with actions to support the
development of a national laboratory and improve the technical capabilities of the local laboratories.
Table 3-2 gives an overview of the necessary investments to maintain operational capabilities of the
monitoring system and to upgrade the monitoring system to meet EU requirements. The figures in this
table are based on a need assessment carried out by NARW, who estimated that a total of 31 million
Euro is minimally needed for a serious upgrade of the NIWMS. This figure has not been verified by the
World Bank.
The NARW would benefit from improving its monitoring system both to maintain present capabilities
and to meet EU requirements. The creation of a national laboratory for water quality testing is required
by the EU in order to facilitate the interaction with laboratories in neighboring countries and to align
water quality monitoring between Romania and neighboring countries.
To improve their technical capability, the regional and local laboratories need new equipment for
sampling of water, sediments and biota, for sample preparation, for analytical determinations, for
biological analysis and for IT purposes to update and extend their current monitoring system.
For the quantitative hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring, the improvement of the
communication network between NARW, GIES and local decision makers, is considered a priority. A
well-functioning, automated communication system would allow the country to benefit more from early
warning announcements.
Furthermore, the quantitative hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring system would benefit from
an update of equipment, which predominantly means replacing manual hydrometric and evapometric
stations with automatic stations, and manual drills with automatic high depth drills. The main advantage
of automated data collection over manual data collection is the improvement of continuity and quality
of the collected data. It also improves the process of data storage and sharing with other stakeholders.
Investments in capacity building are required for both water quality and water quantity monitoring. First
of all, it will be necessary to provide hands on training with new equipment to personnel. However, the
NARW would also benefit from investments in capacity building for the other parts of the monitoring
process such as data processing, and extending the knowledge on methods and models for now-casting
and forecasting, which are necessary capacities for improving not only data monitoring, but also risk
monitoring. Data collection is only a small link in the whole risk monitoring process.
30
Table 3-2 Investments needed to upgrade and maintain the NIWMS according to NARW, the different colors
refer to the type of investments needed to rehabilitate operational capabilities of existing systems and to
upgrade the systems to meet the EU standards
Water Monitoring System Component

Laboratories
Developing a national laboratory
Improvement of the technical capability of regional basins,
and local laboratories
Hydrology
Hydrometric stations
Evapometric stations
Stations for high depth drills
Other monitoring system improvements
Total
Investment in million
Euro
3.0
12.0
10.5
1.0
2.5
2.0
31.0
3.3 National Administration for Meteorology (NAM)

NAM is responsible for monitoring the meteorological parameters such as air temperature and
pressure, precipitations, humidity, wind speed and direction. NAM works closely together with
international meteorological institutes and data sharing platforms. The GoR relies heavily on forecasts
made by the NAM. Governmental warnings code yellow, orange or red for extreme temperatures,
precipitations or wind are based on NAM forecasts.
The NAM is the national authority in the field of meteorology in Romania, developing continuous activity
since 1884. The NAM performs operational meteorological services, as well as current administrative
activities, studies and research within its field of competence. To ensure the quality of data produced
and compliance to international conventions, the NAM carries out the following systematic activities:
developing methods for data collection and processing, and producing meteorological and
software products, in accordance with the national and EU requirements and demands;
executing meteorological analyses, forecasts and warnings;
participating in adjacent activities aimed at preventing meteorological hazards;
developing, systematically updating and administering the national meteorological database;
organizing and coordinating national capacity building and trainings in the fields of meteorology,
climatology, agro-meteorology and atmospheric physics;
participating in international meteorological programs and activities; and
representing Romania within the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the European
Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Centre
for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMRF), the Operational Program for the Exchange of Weather
Radar Information (EUMETNET).
31
The main responsibility of the NAM is the protection of life and property through delivering weather
forecasts and warnings, forecasts on the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants during hazardous weather
phenomena and in accidental pollution events, as well as agro-meteorological forecasts to profiled
users.
3.3.1 Meteorological monitoring system

The national meteorological observation and measurement network consists of
159 surface weather stations

2 aero-logical stations including
o 8 Doppler Radar Systems
55 stations with an agro-meteorological schedule
8 lightning detection systems
8 weather stations with solar radiation schedules
70 rain gauges
1 satellite data receiving system
Figure 3-6 Figure 3-8 show the maps of respectively the National Meteorological Station Network, the
National Meteorological Radar Network and the National Lightning Detection Network.
The meteorological research activities focus on five domains that are considered of national interest and
are also in line with the broader needs of the European Community:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Modelling of the atmosphere using the ALADIN model, HRM and LM models, and the MM5,
RegCM3, ECMWF MOS and COSMO models;
Atmospheric physics and air pollution including radiometry, atmospheric electricity, air pollution
and total ozone;
Climate variability and climate change using HadCM3, RegCM3;
Applied agro-meteorological research including CROPWAT, CERES-Wheat, CERES-Maize, DSSAT
v:3,5;
Studies based on satellite information, remote sensing and GIS techniques.
32
Figure 3-6 National Meteorological Station network, source: NAM
33
Figure 3-7 National Meteorological Radar Network, source: NAM
Figure 3-8 National Lightning Detection Network, source: NAM
34
3.3.2 Gaps improvements and investment needs

Back in 1999, 55 million Euro was invested in upgrading the meteorological system. No significant
investments were undertaken since. Consequently the following gaps have been identified based on
discussions with the experts from NAM:
Surface weather measurements and observations:
Of the 159 weather stations belonging to the National Meteorological Administration, 114 are
automatic. The other 45 stations are manual, which means that measurements and observations at
these stations are carried out manually by specialized staff. The existence of two measurement systems
with different precision and durability classes creates challenges in terms of data collection, data storage
and data quality management. The monitoring system would benefit greatly from an update of manual
weather stations to automatic weather stations.
Radar measurements and observations:
Even though the Romanian radar network is one of the most modern in south-eastern Europe it can still
be considered outdated in comparison to state of the art technology. The oldest Doppler radar units in
Romania have been operational for over 10 years, while the newest have been in service for over 7
years. With the exception of one C-band radar unit, the 7 other radars are equipped with analogical
receivers, which are more unstable than digital receivers demanding permanent tuning, adjustment
and calibration and they have only one (horizontal) polarization.
Types of systems: The radar network exists of two classes of radars C-band and S-band and comprises
systems supplied by three different manufacturers EEC, Gematronik and Metstar companies, which
transfer their radar data to the data servers in different formats. Integrating these different data
formats afterwards in the National Radar Mosaic is complicated and creates reliability issues. If one
single computer in the chain gets blocked, the radar information becomes unavailable, which may
seriously hamper the capability for early warnings based on radar information.
Coverage: Given the variation in terrain elevation in Romania, there are, despite the existence of 8
radars in the network, areas that are insufficiently radar-monitored, including: northern Moldavia Bucovina, and the area of the Curvature Carpathians. There is a ninth radar unit in Maramures area (Baia
Mare), but this radar does not belong to the national radar network and its information is not integrated
in the National Radar Mosaic. Therefore, Maramures area and the extra-boundary neighborhoods
(Ukraine) are insufficiently monitored.
The lightning detection system:
The lightning detection system performs well. However, at present, the network is 8-years old and
demands permanent tuning, adjustment and calibration, and considering international trends, the
outdated infrastructure is the greatest deficiency of the Romanian lightning detection system.
35
Communication system
The meteorological monitoring system would benefit from an improvement of the communication
network between NARW, GIES and the local decision makers. GIES and local decision makers depend on
weather-related early warnings from NAM. The other way around, the NAM relies on field observations
from local authorities during extreme events to calibrate their monitoring system, and now-casting and
forecasting models. At the moment, most of the communication between NAM, GIES and local
authorities occurs via telecommunication. Therefore, the performance of the communication system
relies heavily on the performance of the telecommunication system. At times, it is difficult for NAM and
GIES to get hold of local authorities in case of early warnings for extreme weather, especially at night
time. A well-functioning, automated communication system would allow the country to benefit more
from early warning announcements.
Table 3-3 gives an overview of the necessary investments to maintain operational capabilities of the
monitoring system and to upgrade the monitoring system to meet EU requirements. The figures in this
table are based on a need assessment carried out by NAM, who has estimated that a total of 7 million
Euro is minimally needed for a serious upgrade of the meteorological system. This figure has not been
verified by the World Bank. Although smaller than the investment for the water monitoring system the
needed investment of NAM is crucial for maintaining the performance of their monitoring system.
These investments would allow the NAM to train their (young) personnel in state of the art
methodologies in operational meteorology such as climate modelling, now-casting and forecasting
techniques, impact studies for agriculture and environmental protection, and advanced satellite and
remote sensing techniques. The investments would improve the operational diagnostic and prognostic
products, which can be used for the management of emergency situations.
36
Table 3-3 Investments needed to upgrade and maintain the Meteorological System according to NAM, the
different colors refer to the type of investments needed to rehabilitate operational capabilities of existing
systems and to upgrade the systems to meet the EU standards
Component of the Meteorological System
Investment in million Euro
The meteorological measurement and observation network
2.17
Aerology
0.15
Actinometry
0.033
Air chemistry
0.513
The telecommunication system
0.62
The meteorological database
0.3
Data assimilation and processing
0.431
Geo-portal
0.3
Climatic products and services
0.065
Agro-meteorological products and services
0.34
Satellite observations
0.435
Numerical modelling products and services
2.0
Total
7.052
3.4 General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES)

The institutional mandate for the coordination, prevention and management of emergency situations
lies with the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES), part of the Ministry of
Administration and Interior. All agencies are mandated to share information about the occurrence of
natural hazards with GIES. In case of an emergency, GIES coordinates and works with a wide variety of
stakeholders including local municipalities, fire departments, medical emergency services, as well as the
police. GIES is currently in the process of assessing all risks in the country, including climate-related risks.
The first results of these risk assessments are expected by the end of 2015.
GIES operates in accordance with the provisions of the Government Emergency Ordinance no.21/2004
on National Emergency Management System (NEMS), approved with amendments and completions by
37
Law No.15/2005, and the Government Decision no. 2.288/2004. GIES is managing various types of
emergency situations not limited to climate-related emergencies and is acting within a complex legal
framework that is listed in Annex 2: Relevant National Legislation on Reduction and Prevention of
Disasters.
The main responsibilities of GIES include:
Assessing, evaluating and monitoring risks; forecasting of these risks in order to identify the
potential emergency situations; and decision making to prevent the aggravation of the situation;
Ensuring the integrated coordination of prevention actions and management of emergency
situations in the entire country;
Coordinating the national development programs for protection against disasters;
Informing the public on the imminence of emergency situations and the actions that must be
taken to limit and reduce the impact of the thread, by using the media;
Ensuring technical and specialized coordination of operational centers, and maintaining the
continuous exchange of information between them;
Cooperating with the international entities as part of international conventions and agreements;
Coordinating at national level the resources needed for the management of emergency
situations and developing emergency plans for human, material and financial resources;
Providing technical expertise to local and central authorities on the management of emergency
situations.
GIES is a large employer in Romania. After significant cutbacks in the last couple of years, there are far
fewer jobs in GIES than there were in 2006 when GIES employed 42,636 people, see Table 3-4. The
degree of coverage for the need of special intervention autos is of 76%, while 67% of fire engines are
used twice as long as their expected lifetime. While logistics are essential for efficient GIES
interventions, these figures indicate serious capacity problems for GIES. The total GIES budget for 2013
was of 1,367 million lei. This barely covers normal operational and administrative costs and leaves
significant gaps in situations where special interventions are necessary. Significant investments will be
needed to enhance both present and future capabilities of GIES.
Recent statistics show that the number of managed emergencies by GIES in 2013 was 299,201. The
distribution of these interventions by county in Romania is shown in Figure 3-9. Due to its large
population, most interventions by GIES were carried out in Bucharest in 2013 56,089 times. This
justifies the higher concentration of GIES means and personnel in Bucharest in order to cope with such
a high number of emergencies.
38
Table 3-4 Declining employment in GIES
Year
Job Reductions
Total Employed
2006
42 636
2010-2011
3,595 jobs eliminated
39 041
2011
2273 jobs eliminated in an

additional reorganization
36 768
2012-2013
378 employees depart from the

GIES system largely due to
natural causes such as
pensions.
36 390
Figure 3-9 Emergency interventions by GIES in 2013, source: GIES
3.4.1 Monitoring of climate-related risks

39
as (but not limited to) floods, droughts and wildfires GIES relies heavily on information from NARW and
NAM.
Figure 3-10 Climate-related risk monitoring and management diagram for Romania
Figure 3-10 gives an overview of the monitoring and management of climate-related risk in Romania.
NAM and NARW are responsible for monitoring climate-related parameters such as wind, temperature,
precipitation and water levels. As soon as values of monitored or forecasted parameters exceed
established limits, NAM or NARW issue color-coded early warning announcements.
The moment GIES receives these early warnings, they will assess the risk and decide on need and type of
intervention. GIES will also disseminate the early warning announcement to the relevant local
authorities and to the media. Local authorities may decide to carry out local interventions, in
collaboration with GIES.
In case of a flood event, GIES and NARW work in close collaboration. When a code red for extreme
rainfall is issued by NAM, both GIES and NARW will switch to a state of heightened awareness. NARW
can mitigate extreme water levels by using their dams and retention areas. When these types of river
management interventions are not sufficient to diminish the water levels, GIES will be ready to go into
the field and carry out interventions such as evacuation of people and distribution of food and fresh
water as soon as the code red for floods is announced by NARW.
Even though the general public often looks to the NARW when flash floods and landslides occur, these
events do not fall under the authority of the NARW. The NARWs responsibilities are to monitor and
40
manage the rivers in Romania. Local authorities are responsible to monitor and warn the general public
for flash floods and landslides. GIES is responsible to manage the emergency situation and assess the
damage.
Droughts differ from floods in that they have a different time constant longer and are depending both
on temperature, which enhances evaporation, and on the lack of precipitation, which diminishes the
rivers flow and the presence of water in the ground. GIES activities related to droughts comprise
interventions such as supplying water to affected population and monitoring drought-sensitive areas for
the occurrence of wildfires.
GIES is the agency responsible for monitoring the risk on (wild)fires. Figure 3-11 shows the number of
fire interventions in Romania in 2013. The largest number of fire interventions was carried out in
Bucharest with 1,617 incidents in 2013, which most likely were not climate-related fires. From a total of
21,150 fires in 2013 about 33% were wildfires. Even though most of these wildfires were caused by
human activities, wildfires can be seen as a climate-related risk, because of its correlation to high
temperatures and extended drought.
Figure 3-11 Fire interventions by GIES in 2013, source: GIES
3.4.2 Gaps improvements and investment needs

There are severe gaps in the logistic of the GIES. While this report does not provide a comprehensive
overview, the tentative list below underline the most important gaps.
-
Insufficient number of state-of-the-art intervention vehicles

Severe lack of fuel, which is hampering the intervention capability
41
Small supply of anti-ignition and fire extinguishing substances

Few and old of intervention means
Delays in various planned investments
Insufficient training capacities for the multi-disciplinary character of the institution
The trend in the amount of interventions versus the personnel and the allocated budget for GIES
shows a concerning evolution. The sharp increase in the number of interventions is not matched by
the trends in personnel and budget.
Figure 3-12 Trends in interventions, personnel and budget for GIES; declining personnel and limited budget in
the face of increasing interventions, source: compiled by the authors based on information supplied by GIES
Climate-related hazards are monitored in detail by NARW and NAM. However, to monitor the climaterelated risk, it is also important to assess the impact or damage of climate-related hazards such as
floods, droughts, landslides and wildfires. Several organizations have assessed the impact of historical
events, but there is no standard methodology nor is there a national database for damage information
on historical events. The identification of the most climate-related risk prone areas in Romania can be
improved when reliable damage information is accessible through a national database.
As mentioned in sections 3.2 and 3.3, the communication network between GIES and other agencies
and authorities relies on relatively old equipment and it needs updating as soon as possible. Adequate
monitoring and managing of climate-related risks depend severely on a communication system that
allows online, continuous and fast information sharing between all agencies and stakeholders. Fast data
acquisition and processing is essential to support decision making, especially in the case of emergencies.
The monitoring of climate-related risks would benefit from an upgrade in terms of both field equipment
fixed and mobile and servers, including modern software which allows transferring of information in a
bidirectional way, and has advanced data processing and storage functions.
42
climate-related risk. It is important that local decision makers have a thorough understanding of the
complex information provided by NAM and NARW. Climate-related risk assessment and management by
local authorities would benefit from providing proper training to local decision makers on how to
interpret and use information provided by NAM and NARW.
GIES has a military structure with complex connections in the economy and is dedicated to fighting
among others climate-related emergencies. Climate-related events have strategic impacts on national
safety at all levels, from individual population to the whole economy. This makes the task of GIES not
only a tactical but also a strategic one. In this context, maintaining the preparedness and intervention
capabilities of GIES should be part of the defense strategy of the country.
The investments required to eliminate these gaps range in the hundreds of millions Euro. Exact figures
have not been estimated for this study since GIES is not part of the MECC. Nevertheless the
underfunding of GIES logistics and lack of personnel training, as well as the outdated communication
system between GIES and other agencies, is alarming from a climate risk perspective.
43
4. Risk assessment example for river floods in Romania

measures to mitigate its risk. Therefore, it is essential to monitor climate-related risk on a national scale.
results of risk assessments can be used to prioritize mitigating measures necessary for a climate-resilient
economy. As mentioned in the previous chapter, GIES is currently in the process of assessing all risks in
the country, including climate-related risks. The first results are expected by the end of 2015.
The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the World Bank are in the process
of developing country flood risk profiles for current and future risk as part of the Europe and Central
Asia Program on Rapid and Robust Flood Risk Assessment. This chapter is describes the preliminary
results from the flood risk analysis of Romania, as an example of the type of information a risk
assessment can provide.
4.1 Approach
4.1.1 Background
The country risk profiles for Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are being developed by the World Bank to
facilitate discussions with governments on their level of risk and on how countries can be more resilient
for both current and future risk. Country risk profiles are developed for both river floods and
earthquakes. Since earthquakes are not influenced by climate change, only the flood risk profiles for
Romania will be discussed in this chapter.
Flood risk information on province and country level can be used to identify flood risk prone regions in
the country and prioritize regions for action to reduce the risk. When considering major investments to
reduce risk or become more climate-resilient, future changes in risk due to climate change and socioeconomic developments should be considered. Therefore, this study addresses both current and future
flood risk.
The country risk profiles for floods are based on risk information computed using a model cascade called
GLObal Flood Risks with Image Scenarios (GLOFRIS) to generate risk information for current conditions
and exposure as well as a suite of future scenarios. Section 4.1.2 and 4.1.3 briefly describe the
methodology used for the flood risk analysis and the limitations of the approach. A more in-depth
discussion of the methodology and its limitations is given in Winsemius and Ward [2014].
4.1.2 Method
For the ECA countries, affected GDP and affected population are used to quantify the flood risk.
Estimates of affected GDP and population are given for each country and its provinces for floods with
different return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000-years) and as annual averages.
These metrics are calculated for current climate and socio-economic conditions as well as for conditions
in 2030 and 2080 according to two climate scenarios defined by Representative Concentration Pathways
44
(RCP) for climate change and two socio-economic conditions defined by Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSP) for socio-economic trends. The RCP and SSP are from the AR5 IPCC report and are
RCP4.5, RCP8.5, SSP2 and SSP3.
The risk estimates are generated using the GLOFRIS methodology, a cascade of models and steps that
consists of: (1) global hydrological and hydraulic modeling to develop daily time series maps of flood
volumes; (2) extreme value statistics to develop flood volume maps for the different return periods; (3)
inundation modeling to develop hazard maps for the different return periods; (4) impact modeling to
estimate the affected population and affected GDP for the different return periods; and (5) estimation
of annual average affected population and annual average affected GDP. A more detailed description of
the used method and models is given in Winsemius and Ward [2014]
For the current risk estimates, the hydrological models are forced by daily meteorological fields
(precipitation, temperature and global radiation) for 1960-1999 from the EU-WATCH project [Weedon
et al., 2011]. For future risk estimates, the hydrological models are forced with bias-corrected
meteorological fields from five different General Circulation Models (GCM). The five GCMs have been
forced with the two RCPs. Inter-model differences will result in each GCM predicting a different future
for a given RCP. Thus the use of five GCMs will ensure five different estimates for the future risk
estimates and provide a sample of the uncertainty associated with the climate change projection. The
spread in outcomes for the risk estimates, reflect the uncertainty in the future risk due to changes in
emission scenarios as well as uncertainty in socio-economic development.
4.1.3 Limitations
This risk information is produced to inform governments of the river flood risk in their country, and to
facilitate discussions with these governments on the need of flood risk reduction and resilience. The risk
estimates give a first impression of the flood risk in each country, and the ranking of the risks over the
different provinces in the country. The risk information is produced using a global flood risk model, and
it is therefore important to be aware of the limitations of the methodology. A summary of the
limitations described in Winsemius and Ward [2014] follows and provides an indication of the
limitations in the risk estimates.
GLOFRIS does not account for flood protection measures (such as dikes and water retention areas) due
to a lack of information on flood defenses on a global scale. This means that for return periods lower
than the current design flood protection level the affected people and affected GDP will be
overestimated. This leads to an overestimation of annual averages for the risk indicators. The
overestimation in the annual averages can fairly straightforward be corrected by assuming a zero impact
for the lower return periods and recalculating the annual averages. At the moment of publication of this
report, this correction has not yet been made.
The risk indicators have been assessed only as a function of hazard and exposure. Vulnerability has not
been addressed. This means that estimates for affected people and affected GDP in this study do not
depend on flood depth. In other words, the people and the economy are either affected when a flood is
present or not affected when a flood is not present. In reality, the effect of a flood on population and
45
economy depends on the flood depths. A flood of 10 cm has a different impact than a flood of 1 m. It is
recommended to include vulnerability in future projects.
GLOFRIS is a global model that can be used to assess large-scale river flood risks. It does not assess
coastal floods, flash floods or urban floods.
In general, uncertainties in absolute flood risk estimates are large (Apel et al. [2008]; Merz et al. [2010];
De Moel and Aerst [2011]), whilst estimates of relative changes in risk under different scenarios or
variability across space are more robust according to Bubeck et al. [2011].
Given the above mentioned limitations, the risk information provides a first impression of the
distribution of the risk between the different provinces of Romania, a rough indication of the magnitude
of the risk and an impression of the sensitivity of the risk to future change. The results can be used to
focus attention on particular areas in Romania and open discussions on the perception of risk. The
results can certainly not be used for the design of specific flood protection measures. This would require
more detailed and calibrated models that include information of local conditions such as more accurate
river profiles, structures, existing flood protection and information on exposure and vulnerability. It
would also require thorough engagement of local experts and stakeholders.
4.2 Results for Romania

4.2.1 Current risk Average Annual Loss
Romania has a population of 20 million people and GDP of 189 billion US dollars. The Annual Average
Losses (AALs) are estimated to be approximately 2.2 billion US$ and 335,000 affected people for the
whole country, which are 1.2% of the GDP and 1.7% of the population of Romania. The spatial
distribution of AAL over Romanias provinces is shown in Figure 4-1 and Figure 4-2, in US dollars and
affected people, respectively. All figures show flood risk prone areas in the North-East, North-West and
the South-East of Romania.
Table 4-1 presents the top 10 provinces in Romania for AALs for respectively affected GDP (in US$) and
affected people in absolute numbers. The AALs in the top 10 vary from 0.07 to 0.26 billion US$ and from
12,500 to 34,000 affected people. Eight provinces show up in the top 10 list for both affected GDP and
affected people, the order of the lists differ slightly.
Table 4-2 shows the top 10 provinces with the AALs normalized as a percentage of the total GDP or
population of the province. Most of the top 10 provinces from Table 4-1 make it to the normalized top
10 as well, but not all. For example, the province Cluj has the 6th largest AAL for affected GDP and the 8th
largest AAL for affected people, which represent 1.8% of the GDP and 1.9% of the population of Cluj.
Hence, Cluj does not make it to the top 10 list for normalized AALs.
The normalized AALs in the top 10 vary from 2.6% to 9.1% of both the GDPs and populations of the
provinces. Ialomita is ranked 4th for affected GDP and 3th for affected people, but is comes in 1st when
looking at the relative impact it has on the region. Ialomita has an AAL of 9.1% of both its GDP and
population. This is a significant risk for the province and it shows the importance of also considering the
46
impact a flood can have on local areas. Countrywide the AALs might only be 1.2% of GDP and 1.7% of
population, but for individual provinces the AALs can be as high as 9% for both the local GDP and
population.
Figure 4-1 Current Annual Average Loss for affected GDP, in US dollars
47
Figure 4-2 Current Annual Average Loss for affected people, in number of affected people
Table 4-1 Top 10 ranked provinces with highest Annual Average Loss for affected GDP
Province
Timis
Iasi
Arad
Satu Mare
Ialomita
Cluj
Alba
Teleorman
Mures
Constanta
Affected GDP in US$
Province
Iasi
Satu Mare
Ialomita
Timis
Teleorman
Arad
Bacau
Cluj
Mures
Neamt
0.26
0.21
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.13
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.07
48
Affected people
34000
25500
25000
21500
20000
17500
13000
13000
12500
12500
Table 4-2 Top 10 ranked provinces with highest Annual Average Loss for affected people
Province
Ialomita
Satu Mare
Teleorman
Iasi
Arad
Calarasi
Giurgiu
Alba
Timis
Neamt
Affected GDP in %
9.1
7.4
5.2
4.4
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.1
2.6
Province
Ialomita
Satu Mare
Teleorman
Iasi
Arad
Giurgiu
Calarasi
Alba
Timis
Neamt
Affected people in %
9.1
7.4
5.2
4.4
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.3
3.1
2.6
Bucharest, the capital of Romania, does not appear in the Top 10 for neither affected GDP nor affected
people. The AALs for Bucharest are estimated to be approximately 14 million US$ and 1000 affected
people, which represent 0.03% of the GDP and population of Bucharest. It is important to remark that
GLOFRIS is a global model that does not take into account local information such as drainage systems in
urban areas. Therefore, this approach might not give accurate risk estimates for a large city such as
Bucharest.
It should be stressed that the uncertainties around the estimates for affected GDP and affected people
are large, due to the limitations of the approach. The numbers for the individual provinces should
always be assessed in comparison to each other, not as single values. This risk information should
therefore primarily be used to flag which provinces are most at risk for river floods. This study can be
used to prioritize further, and more detailed, research for those provinces most at risk.
4.2.2 Current risk for a flood event with a return period of 25 year
When considering separate flood events, less frequent floods are more extreme and have a greater
impact on GDP and people. In this study, risk information has been computed for flood events with a
return period of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000 years.
Table 4-3 and Table 4-4 show a significant impact on both the affected GDP and affected people for
events with a return period larger than 25 years. There seems to be a breakpoint around the return
period of 25 years. Up to 25 years the affected GDP and affected people increases significantly, while
after the 25 years this increase seems to slow down.
Table 4-3 Affected GDP for flood events in Romania with different return periods
Return Period
Affected GDP (in billions US$)
Affected GDP (% of countrys GDP)
5
4.3
2.3
49
10
7.0
3.7
25
11.4
6.0
50
11.7
6.2
100
11.9
6.3
250
13.4
7.1
500 1000
13.7 13.9
7.2
7.3
Table 4-4 Affected people for flood events in Romania with different return periods
Return Period
Affected people (in millions)
Affected people (% of countrys population)
5
0.7
3.4
10
1.1
5.4
25
1.5
7.7
50
1.6
8.0
100
1.6
8.1
250
1.8
8.8
500 1000
1.8
1.8
9.0
9.2
However, remember that this approach did not account for vulnerability. This means that estimates for
affected people and affected GDP in this study do not depend on the flood depths. In other words, the
people and the economy are either affected when a flood is present or not affected when a flood is not
present. In reality, the effect of a flood on population and economy depends on the flood depths. For
Table 4-3 and Table 4-4 this means that the differences in impact between the different return periods is
caused by differences in extend of the flood for different return periods, and not by differences in flood
depths. When vulnerability is included, this would most likely lead to larger differences in impact
between the smaller and larger return periods. It is recommended to include vulnerability in future
projects.
The spatial distributions of the impact of a 25 year flood event on affected GDP and affected people
over Romanias provinces are shown in Figure 4-3 and Figure 4-4, in US dollars and affected people,
respectively. As with the AALs, these figures show flood risk prone areas in the North-East, North-West
and the South-East of Romania for a flood event with a return period of 25 years.
Table 4-5 and Table 4-6 show the top 10 provinces most at risk for a flood event with a return period of
25 years. The results in these tables illustrate that 25-year events have a significantly higher impact than
the AALs. Whereas the AALs for individual provinces are smaller than 10% for both GDP and population,
the 25 year event shows impacts as high as 32% for both the local GDP and population for individual
provinces.
Again, it should be stressed that due to the limitations of the approach the uncertainties around the
estimates for affected GDP and affected people are large. The numbers for the individual provinces
should always be assessed in comparison to each other, not as single values. This risk information should
therefore primarily be used to flag which provinces are most at risk for river floods. This study can be
used to prioritize further, and more detailed, research for those provinces most at risk.
50
Figure 4-3 Affected GDP for a flood event with a return period of 25 years
Figure 4-4 Affected people for a flood event with a return period of 25 years
51
Table 4-5 Top 10 ranked provinces with larges affected GDP and affected people for a flood event with a return
period of 25 years
Province
Timis
Cluj
Iasi
Arad
Satu Mare
Ialomita
Mures
Hunedoara
Alba
Giurgiu
Affected GDP in US$

2.74
1.42
0.89
0.53
0.47
0.44
0.38
0.34
0.29
0.28
Province
Timis
Iasi
Cluj
Satu Mare
Ialomita
Arad
Mures
Teleorman
Hunedoara
Neamt
Affected people
226000
142500
142500
85500
79500
65000
62500
60500
52000
51500
Table 4-6 Top 10 ranked provinces with largest affected GDP and affected people as a percentage of the GDP or
population of the province for a flood event with a return period of 25 years
Province
Timis
Ialomita
Satu Mare
Cluj
Iasi
Teleorman
Giurgiu
Arad
Calarasi
Hunedoara
Affected GDP in %
32.8
28.9
24.7
20.5
18.5
15.8
15.6
15.0
12.5
12.4
Province
Timis
Ialomita
Satu Mare
Cluj
Iasi
Giurgiu
Teleorman
Arad
Calarasi
Hunedoara
Affected people in %
32.7
28.8
24.7
20.4
18.5
16.3
15.8
15.0
12.5
12.4
4.2.3 Future Risk

When considering major investments to reduce risk or to become more resilient, future changes in risk
due to climate change and socio-economic developments should be considered. Therefore, risk
information has been created not only for current conditions and exposure, but also for climate and
socio-economic conditions in 2030 and 2080 according to two climate scenarios defined by
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for climate change and two socio-economic conditions
defined by Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) for socio-economic trends.
The RCP and SSP are from the AR5 IPCC report and are RCP4.5, RCP8.5, SSP2 and SSP3. Both SSP2 and
SSP3 predict a growth in GDP and a decline in population, where SSP2 shows a faster growth or decline
than SSP3. RCP4.5 predicts a moderate climate change, while RCP8.5 predicts a fast climate change.
52
The uncertainty in future projections of climate and socio-economic conditions is very large. These
uncertainties become larger when projecting further in the future. The spread in outcomes for the risk
estimates, reflect the uncertainty in the future risk due to changes in emission scenarios as well as
uncertainty in socio-economic development.
The AAL for affected GDP varies from 3.2 to 4.8 billion US$ for the 2030 projections and from 2.8 to 7.4
billion US$ for the 2080 projections, which corresponds to a variation between 1.1% and 1.7% of
Romanias projected GDP in 2030 and between 1.0% and 2.7% of Romanias projected GDP in 2080.
The AAL for affected people varies from 249,00 to 426,000 affected people for the 2030 projections and
from 131,000 to 316,000 affected people for the 2080 projections, which corresponds to a variation
between 1.3% and 2.3% of Romanias projected population in 2030 and between 0.7% and 1.7% of
Romanias projected population in 2080.
This shows that the AALs for affected GDP and affected people in 2030 and 2080 most likely will be of at
least the same order of magnitude as current risk. It is recommended to also do a similar analysis for
future risk for the most affected provinces.
It is to be expected that extreme events, such as events that currently have a return period of 100 years,
will become more frequent. In this study, the underlying hazard results were not analyzed. When these
hazard results become available, it is recommended to study the shifts in probabilities of extreme
events.
4.3 Use of risk assessment in monitoring of climate-related risk

This flood risk assessment confirms that Romania is vulnerable to floods. The most flood risk prone
areas are located in the North-East, North-West and the South-East of Romania. Even though the
countrywide AALs are only 1.2% of GDP and 1.7% of population, for individual provinces the AALs can be
as high as 9% for both the local GDP and population. When considering extreme events with a return
period of 25 years and higher, the impact of floods is considerably larger. The impact of a 25-year flood
event can be as high as 32% for both the local GDP and population for individual provinces. These
extreme flood events can have severe impacts on the local economies of affected areas.
Using risk assessments to identify which regions are most-likely to be impacted by extreme climaterelated events, can be beneficiary for GIES to allocate its budget, personnel and equipment in
53
developments.
54
5. Conclusions
Monitoring climate-related risks on a national level
as (but not limited to) floods, droughts and wildfires it relies heavily on information from NARW and
NAM.
To monitor the climate-related risk, it is also important to assess the impact or damage of climaterelated hazards such as floods, droughts, landslides and wildfires. Several organizations have assessed
the impact of historical events, but there is no standard methodology nor is there a national database
for damage information on historical events. The identification of the most climate-related risk prone
areas in Romania can be improved when reliable damage information is accessible through a national
database.
The communication network between GIES, other agencies and authorities relies on relatively old
equipment and it needs updating as soon as possible. Adequate monitoring and managing of climaterelated risk depends severely on a communication system that allows online, continuous and fast
information sharing between all agencies and stakeholders. Fast data acquisition and processing is
essential to support decision making, especially in the case of emergencies. A well-functioning,
automated communication system would allow the country to benefit more from early warning
announcements. The monitoring of climate-related risks would benefit from an upgrade in terms of
both field equipment fixed and mobile and servers including modern software that allows transferring
of information in a bidirectional way, and has advanced data processing and storage functions.
risk. It is important that local decision makers have a thorough understanding of the complex
information provided by NAM and NARW. Climate-related risk assessment and management by local
authorities would benefit from providing proper training to local decision makers on how to interpret
and use information from NAM and NARW.
55
Monitoring systems for climate-related parameters

Both the NARW and NAM would benefit from improving and automating their monitoring systems to
maintain present capabilities and to meet EU requirements. The quantitative hydrological and
hydrogeological monitoring system would benefit from an update of equipment, which predominantly
means replacing manual hydrometric and evapometric stations with automatic stations, and manual
drills with automatic high depth drills. The main advantage of automated data collection over manual
data collection is the improvement of continuity and quality of the collected data. It also improves the
process of data storage and sharing with other stakeholders.
The creation of a national laboratory for water quality testing is required by the EU in order to facilitate
the interaction with laboratories in neighboring countries and to align water quality monitoring between
Romania and neighboring countries. To improve their technical capability, the regional and local
laboratories need new equipment for sampling of water, sediments and biota, for sample preparation,
for analytical determinations, for biological analysis and for IT purposes to update and extend their
current monitoring system.
Both NARW and NAM require investments in capacity building. First of all, it will be necessary to provide
hands on training on new equipment to personnel. However, both agencies could also benefit from
investments in capacity building for the other parts of the monitoring process such as data processing
and extending the knowledge on methods and models for forecasting, which are necessary capacity
when the country wants to improve not only data monitoring, but also risk monitoring. Data collection is
only a small link in the whole risk monitoring process.
The use of risk assessments for monitoring climate-related risk
Using risk assessments to identify which regions are most-likely to be impacted by these extreme
climate-related events, can be beneficiary for GIES to allocate its budget, personnel and equipment in
5
56
developments.
57
References
Apel H., Merz B., Thieken A.H., Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments, International
Journal of River Basin Management 6, 149 162 doi:10.1080/15715124.2008.9635344, 2008
Bupeck P., De Moel H., Brouwer L.M., Aerts J.C.J.H., How reliable are projections of future flood
damage? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11 3293-3306 doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-3293-2011,
2011
De Moel H., Aerts J.C.J.H., Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on
flood damage estimates, Natural Hazards, 58 407-425 doi: 10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6, 2011
Merz B., Kreibich H., Schwarze R., Thieken A., Assessment of economic flood damage, Natural Hazards
and Earth System Sciences, 10 1697-1724 doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010
Weedon G.P., Gomes S., Viterbo P., Oesterle H., Adam J.C., Bellouin N., Boucher O., Best M., The WATCH
Forcing Data 1958-2001: a meteorological forcing dataset for land surface- and hydrological-models,
WATCH Technical Report 22, 2010, (Wallingford: Met Office Hadley Centre) (available online at www.euwatch.org)
Winsemius H., Ward P., Flood risk profiles Europe Central Asia region, report 1209814-000-ZWS-0002,
unpublished (will be published in September/October 2014)
World Bank (2014). Component B Synthesis Report. A summary of Sector Rapid Assessments and
Recommendations for incorporating Climate Actions in the 2014-2020 Sectoral Operational Programs in
Romania.
World Bank (2014). Romania: Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/romania/brief/romania-climate-change-and-low-carbon-greengrowth-program
58
Annex 1: Risk
Disaster Risk, WMO, definitions
Acceptable Risk
The level of loss a society or community considers

acceptable given existing social, economic, political,
cultural, technical and environmental conditions
[Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster risk reduction]
Capacity
A combination of all the strengths and resources

available within a community, society or organization
that can reduce the level of risk, or the effects of a
disaster [Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster risk
reduction]
Disaster
A serious disruption of the functioning of a

community or a society causing widespread human,
material, economic or environmental losses which
exceed the ability of the affected community or
society to cope using its own resources [Source: ISDR
Terminology of disaster risk reduction]
Exposure
Exposure is the total value of elements at-risk. It is

expressed as the number of human lives, and value
of the properties, that can potentially be affected by
hazards. Exposure is a function of the geographic
location of the elements [Source: UNDP (2004):
Reducing Disaster Risk: a challenge for development.
A global report (M. Pelling, A. Maskrey, P. Ruiz, L.
Hall, eds.). John S. Swift Co., USA, 146 pp,]
Hazard
Potentially damaging physical event that may cause

the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and
economic disruption or environmental degradation.
Hazards can include latent conditions that may
represent future threats and can have different
origins. Each hazard is characterised by its location,
59
intensity, and probability. [Source: ISDR Terminology

of disaster risk reduction]
Hazard Analysis
Identification, studies and monitoring of any hazard

to determine its potential, origin, characteristics and
behavior. [Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster risk
reduction]
Hydrometeorological
Hazards
Natural processes or phenomena of atmospheric,

hydrological or oceanographic nature, which may
cause the loss of life or injury, property damage,
social and economic disruption or environmental
degradation. [Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster
risk reduction]
Intensity
Physical parameters describing the severity of the

hazard. For major hydro-meteorological hazard
phenomena, standards have been developed by
WMO and adopted by 188 Member States for
monitoring and reporting of hazard phenomena.
[Source: Global Change and Environmental
Hazards,[Source: http://www.aag.org/HDGC/
www/hazards/units/unit1/html/unit1frame.html]
Natural Hazards
Natural processes or phenomena occurring in the

biosphere that may constitute a damaging event.
[Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster risk reduction]
Probability
Likelihood of an event happening. Probability is

statistically higher for low-intensity hazards.
Probability reflects the future frequency of
occurrence of hazard event, and cannot be drawn
using historical statistics alone. For hydrometeorological hazards, probability assessments
need to reflect trends related to ongoing evolutions
(i.e. climate change, deforestation, etc.) [Source:
United Nations University, Comparative Glossary for
60
Core Terms of Disaster Reduction, p.16]

Resilience
Capacity to recover the normal functioning and

development after being hit by a disaster. A high
resilience reduces indirect impacts of disasters, such
as business and services interruptions in the
aftermath of a disaster. [Source: ISDR Terminology of
disaster risk reduction]
Risk
Probable impacts, expressed in terms of expected

loss of lives, people injured, property, livelihoods,
economic activity disrupted or environmental
damage. [Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster risk
reduction]
Risk
Assessment/Analysis
A methodology to determine the nature an extent of

risk by analysing potential hazards and evaluating
existing conditions of vulnerability that could pose a
potential threat or harm to people, property,
livelihoods and the environment on which they
depend. [Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster risk
reduction]
Risk Identification
The process used to determine what can happen,

why and how events arise. [Source:
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/themes/riskidentification/]
Risk Management
The systematic management of administrative

decisions, organization, operational skills and
capacities to implement policies, strategies and
coping capacities of the society and communities to
lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related
environmental and technological disasters. This
comprises all forms of activities, including structural
and non-structural measures to avoid (prevention) or
to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse
61
effects of hazards. [Source:

http://www.preventionweb.net/
english/professional/terminology/]
Risk Reduction
The conceptual framework of elements considered

with the possibilities to minimize vulnerabilities and
disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid
(prevention) or to limit (mitigation and
preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within
the broad context of sustainable development.
[Source: http://www.preventionweb.net/english/
professional/terminology/]
Risk Transfer
Insurance and reinsurance both for physical damage

and business interruption, coverage that would
provide cash compensation immediately after a
disaster. [Source:
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/themes/risktransfer/]
Vulnerability
Physical, social, economic, and environmental factors

which increase the susceptibility to be impacted by
hazards. Vulnerability engages resistance and
resilience. [Source: ISDR Terminology of disaster risk
reduction]
62
Annex 2: Relevant National Legislation on Reduction and Prevention

of Disasters
A) GENERAL LAWS
Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 21/15.04.2004 regarding National System of
Emergency Management;
Law of civil protection no. 106/25.09.1996;
Law no. 124/1995 of approval Governmental Ordinance no. 47 from 12 August 1994,
regarding defense against disasters;
Governmental Decision no. 209 from 19.05. 1997 regarding approval of Organizational
and Functioning Regulation of Governmental Commission for Defense Against Disasters;
Governmental Decision no. 635 from 18.08.1995 regarding intelligence and decision
transmitting of information for defense against disasters;
Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 179/26.10.2000 regarding passing of civil
protection military units from MoD. to Ministry of Interior, and modification of civil
protection law no. 106/1996, of Governmental Ordinance no. 47/1994 regarding
defense against disasters and of Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 14/2000
regarding constitution
Law no. 448/18 July 2001 for approval of Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 14 from
2000 regarding constitution of civil protection detachments for intervention in case of
disasters;
Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 88/2001 regarding constitution, organization and
functioning of the public communitarian services for emergencies, approved, by Law no.
363/2002;
Governmental Decision no. 761/18.07.2002 regarding approval of the programs for
application of Governmental Ordinance no. 88/2001 regarding constitution,
organization and functioning of the public communitarian services for emergencies;
Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 291/29.12.2000 regarding establish of the
measures referring to the organization and functioning of some ministries;
Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 63/2003 regarding organization and functioning
of Ministry of Administration and Interior;
Governmental Urgency Ordinance no. 64/2003 for establish of some measures
regarding constitution, organization and reorganization or functioning of structures
from government, ministries and other specialty organisms from central public
administration and some public institution;
Governmental Decision no. 725/2003 regarding organizational structure of Ministry of
Administration and Interior;
63
Decision 57 from 30.03.1998 Instructions regarding organization and logistics of civil

protection inspectorates, commissions and detachments;
Governmental Decision no. 371 from 1993 regarding giving of humanitarian relief to
displaced population in case of emergencies;
Governmental Decision no. 222 from 19.05.1997 regarding organization and conduct of
evacuation of population;
Law nr.82/92, republished in 1997 (M.O.- 354/97) regarding stat reserves;
Law no. 132/1997, regarding commandeering of goods and services for public interest;
Law of environmental protection no. 137/1995 republished in 17.02 2000;
Governmental Ordinance no. 59 from 22 August 2003 regarding some goods except
from border taxes;
Governmental Urgency Ordinance 1 from 21 January 1999 regarding siege and
emergency status regime;
Decree no. 224/11 May 1990 for ratification of the additional protocols I and II to the
Geneva Conventions, from 12 August 1949;
Law 14 from 24 februarie 1995 for ratification of the Convention regarding cooperation
for protection and durable use of Danube river (Convention for protection of Danube
river) signed to Sofia at 29 June 1994;
Law 97 from 16.09.1992 for ratification of the Convention from Romanian Govern and
Bulgaria Govern regarding collaboration in environmental protection field;
Law 98 from 16.09.1992 for ratification of the Convention regarding protection of Black
Sea against pollution;
Decree 140 from 26.07.1993 ratification of the Convention from Vienna regarding
protection of the ozone layer, adopted on 22.03.1985, of the Montreal Protocol from
16.09.1986 and of the Amendment to the Montreal Protocol London 27-29.06.1990;
Law 84 from 03.12.1993 regarding adhesion of Romania to the Convention from Vienna
regarding protection of the ozone layer, adopted on 22.03.1985, of the Montreal
Protocol from 16.09.1986 and of the Amendment to the Montreal Protocol London
27-29.06.1990;
Law 30 from 26.04.1995 regarding ratification of the Convention regarding protection
and use of the trans-boundary flowing waters and international lakes, concluded to
Helsinki la 17 Mars 1992;
Law 22 from 22.02.2001 regarding ratification of the Espoo Convention from
25.02.1991- evaluation of the impact on environment in the trans-boundary context;
Law 11 from 8 January 1998 for ratification of the Agreement between Romanian
Govern and Bulgaria Govern regarding collaboration in civil protection, during peace,
signed in Bucharest on 18 January 1996;
64
Law 153 from 11 October 1999 regarding approval of the Governmental Ordinance
no.8/1999 for ratification of the Agreement between governs of the states participating
to the Economic Cooperation of Black Sea for collaboration in intervention and
emergency response in case of natural or man-made disasters, signed to Soci on 15 April
1998;
Law 61 from 24 April 2000 Agreement between North Atlantic Treaty states and the
other states participating to Partnership for Peace regarding status of their forces,
signed in Bruxelles on 19 June 1995;
B) LAWS REGARDING NATURAL DISASTER

Governmental Decision no. 447 from 10 April 2003 for approval of the
methodologicalnorms regarding elaboration mode and content of the floods and
landslides risk maps;
Law no. 381 from 13 June 2002 regarding giving of compensations in case of natural
calamities in agriculture;
Governmental Decision no. 1036 from 18 October 2001 for approval of the Protocol
between Ministry of Interior from Romania and FEMA / USA regarding cooperation for
prevention and intervention in natural or technological emergencies, signed at
Bucharest on 22 January 2001;
Law no. 575 from 22.10.2001 regarding approval of national territory arrangement plan;
Governmental Ordinance regarding reduction of the seismic risk of the existing
buildings, no. 20/1994, last revue 1999 and Application Methodology;
Governmental Decision no. 638 from 5 August 1999 regarding approval of the
Regulation for defense against floods, dangerous meteorological phenomena and of the
accidents to the dams and of the frame norm on endowment with materials and means
for defense against floods and water ice;
Common Order of the Govern General Secretary and Ministry of Public Works and
Arrange of the Territory no. 770/26.09.1997 and no. 6173/NN/26.09.1997 regarding
stocktaking of the existent building status;
Governmental Decision no. 210 from 10 May 1997 regarding approval of the Regulation
on organization and functioning of the central commission for defense against floods,
dangerous meteorological phenomena and of the accidents to the dams;
Law no. 107/1996 - Law of waters;
Governmental Decision no. 438/1996, regarding approval of the Regulation on
organization and functioning of the central commission for prevention and defense
against seismic effects and landslides;
Law no. 10/1995 regarding quality in building;
65
Governmental Decision no. 486/1993 regarding rising of the exploitation safety of the
buildings and installations which represent a risk source;
Law no. 75 from 14 December 1991 regarding sanitary - vet Law;
Governmental Decision no. 1364/2001 for application of the Governmental Ordinance
regarding reduction of the seismic risk of the existing buildings, no. 20/1994, last revue
1999;
Governmental Decision no. 372/2004 for approval of the National Program for Seismic
Risk Management;
Governmental Decision no. 382/2003 for approval of the methodological norms
regarding minimal demanding in content for territory arrange and urbanism
documentation for natural risk areas;
66

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OPERA-CLIMA A Raport A2.2 Monitorizare Efecte Si Riscuri Climatice en

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Romania

Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program

Monitoring Climate Change Effects and Risks in

Scope and objective of this study ............................................................................................... 13

The need for monitoring CC-related impacts and risks .............................................................. 14

Hazards and climate change effects in Romania ................................................................................ 15

Climate change effects ................................................................................................................ 15

Hazard and risk monitoring in Romania.............................................................................................. 22

Overview of the current monitoring systems in Romania .......................................................... 22

National Administration for Romanian Waters (NARW) ............................................................ 23

Monitoring of water quality ................................................................................................ 24

Hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring .................................................................... 26

Gaps, improvement and investment needs ........................................................................ 30

National Administration for Meteorology (NAM)....................................................................... 31

Meteorological monitoring system ..................................................................................... 32

Gaps improvements and investment needs ....................................................................... 35

General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES) .............................................................. 37

Monitoring of climate-related risks .................................................................................... 39

Gaps improvements and investment needs ....................................................................... 41

Risk assessment example for river floods in Romania ........................................................................ 44

Results for Romania .................................................................................................................... 46

Current risk Average Annual Loss .................................................................................... 46

Future Risk .......................................................................................................................... 52

Use of risk assessment in monitoring of climate-related risk..................................................... 53

Abbreviations and Acronyms

Average Annual Loss

Monitoring climate-related risks on a national level

Monitoring systems for climate-related parameters

Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community, http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/

1.2 The need for monitoring CC-related impacts and risks

2. Hazards and climate change effects in Romania

2.2 Climate change effects

Figure 2-2 Flood prone areas in Romania, source NARW

3. Hazard and risk monitoring in Romania

3.1 Overview of the current monitoring systems in Romania

monitoring agencies/climaterelated parameters

e - early warning (color codes)

NAM NAWR GIES

3.2 National Administration for Romanian Waters (NARW)

Figure 3-1 River basins in Romania, source NARW

3.2.1 Monitoring of water quality

3.2.2 Hydrological and hydrogeological monitoring

905 hydrometric station on rivers

3.2.3 Gaps, improvement and investment needs

Water Monitoring System Component

3.3 National Administration for Meteorology (NAM)

3.3.1 Meteorological monitoring system

159 surface weather stations

Figure 3-6 National Meteorological Station network, source: NAM

Figure 3-7 National Meteorological Radar Network, source: NAM

Figure 3-8 National Lightning Detection Network, source: NAM

3.3.2 Gaps improvements and investment needs

Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European Community, http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/

Component of the Meteorological System

Investment in million Euro

The meteorological measurement and observation network

The telecommunication system

The meteorological database

Data assimilation and processing

Climatic products and services

Agro-meteorological products and services

Numerical modelling products and services

3.4 General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES)