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Variations in Temperature and Rainfall in Sangamner Taluka
Variations in Temperature and Rainfall in Sangamner Taluka
Variations in Temperature and Rainfall in Sangamner Taluka
IN SANGAMNER TALUKA OF
AHMEDNAGAR DISTRICT, MAHARASHTRA
ABSTRACT
Due to their biophysical characteristics, drylands ecosystems are most vulnerable the climate
risks. Climate variability has serious implications on major livelihoods of the region i.e.
agriculture and livestock. In this paper, attempts have been made to study variations in
temperature and rainfall in Sangamner Taluka of Maharashtra, India. Data at annual, seasonal
and monthly time scales for the period of 1969-2009 (Temperature) and 1971-2010 (Rainfall)
were examined. Trends in temperature, rainfall and rainy days have been assessed by Nonparametric tests (Mann-Kendall or Pre Whitened Mann-Kendall test for trend detection and
Theil and Sen's Slope for magnitude of trend), Moving average and descriptive statistics.
KEY WORDS:
Temperature and Rainfall variations, Climate Change, Mann-Kendall Test, Standard
Precipitation Index, Dry Spells
2|Page
INTRODUCTION:
India being an agrarian economy, where
70 percent of the population depends on
agriculture, is highly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate risks. Temperature rise,
precipitation
variation,
increased
frequency of extreme events and sea level
rise have serious implications on
agriculture and related activities. Climate
scenarios using global and regional
circulation models1 indicate warming from
0.5 degree C to 1.5 degree C. Indian
monsoon is projected to increase by 8 to
18 percent. The semi-arid regions of
western India are expected to receive
higher than normal rainfall as temperature
rises. 2 Increased incidences of heat spells
and abrupt changes in the monsoon could
lead to severe droughts. Seasonal water
scarcity and high temperatures will have
serious repercussions on agriculture and
food security of the country. According to
IPCC, current global warming rate is 0.2
degree C per decade. Analysis for the
period 1901-2009 done by IMD suggests
that annual mean temperature for the
country has risen by 0.56 degree C and the
warming trend is mainly due to rise in
maximum temperature however, post
1990s, minimum temperature is rising
steadily.3
The country is divided into 15 agro
climatic
zones
based
on
agrometeorological factors. Soil and climatic
characteristics affect crops, any variation
in agro-meteorological factors has
implications on agriculture. Increase in
temperature has negative impacts on the
crop cycle, inducing early flowering, and
shortening the grain fill period and thus
reducing the yield.4A 0.50 1.5 degree C
rise in temperature will reduce the wheat
yield by 0.45 tons/ha. A 1.5 degree C rise
in temperature and 2 mm increase in
precipitation will reduce rice yield by 3-15
percent. 5 A large part of the state of
Maharashtra is covered by drylands and
therefore vulnerable to climate change.
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METHODOLOGY:
Area of study
The area under study is Sangamner taluka which falls in the rain shadow belt of Maharashtra.
It lies in the agro climatic zone, Western Plateau and hills region (zone 9), and Western
Maharashtra Scarcity zone (Agro climatic sub zone).The zone is semi-arid region
characterized by frequent droughts and acute water shortage that affect the agriculture and
livestock severely. Kharif (June to September) and Rabi (October to January) are major
cropping seasons but some farmers also take summer crops (February to May) depending on
water availability.
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40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Rainfall in mm
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
3|Page
4|Page
Table 1: Summary of the Mann-Kendall analysis and Theil and Sens Median Slope for
Temperature
Variable
Trend
Significance at 0.05
level
Increasing Insignificant
Increasing Insignificant
Increasing Insignificant
Slope
Increasing Significant
0.019
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
0.007
0.003
0.01
0.016
0.13
0.014
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Significant
Significant
0.004
0.007
0.003
24.00
y = 0.0194x + 22.172
R = 0.3322
23.50
23.00
22.50
22.00
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
21.50
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32.80
32.50
32.20
31.90
31.60
31.30
31.00
30.70
30.40
30.10
29.80
29.50
y = 0.0004x + 31.222
R = 4E-05
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
34.00
y = 0.0129x + 32.151
R = 0.0654
y = 0.007x + 23.724
R = 0.0802
33.50
24.20
33.00
24.00
23.80
32.50
23.60
32.00
23.40
31.50
23.20
23.00
31.00
Minimum Temperature
Maximum Temperature
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23.40
23.20
30.00
y = 0.0139x + 22.458
R = 0.448
y = 0.0044x + 29.217
R = 0.0349
29.80
29.60
23.00
29.40
22.80
29.20
29.00
22.60
28.80
22.40
28.60
22.20
28.40
Minimum Temperature
Maximum Temperature
23.00
22.80
29.60
y = 0.0068x + 28.45529.40
R = 0.0514
29.20
y = 0.0063x + 21.846
R = 0.0817
22.60
29.00
22.40
28.80
22.20
28.60
28.40
22.00
28.20
21.80
28.00
21.60
27.80
Minimum Temperature
Maximum Temperature
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32.00
31.80
31.60
31.40
31.20
31.00
30.80
30.60
30.40
30.20
30.00
29.80
29.60
29.40
29.20
29.00
22.60
22.40
y = 0.0066x + 29.969
R = 0.0446
y = 0.017x + 21.214
R = 0.2632
22.20
22.00
21.80
21.60
21.40
21.20
21.00
20.80
Minimum Temperature
Maximum Temperature
Trend
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Increasing
Decreasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Increasing
Significance at 5%
significant
significant
significant
significant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Significant
Significant
Slope
5.42
2
4.89
2
0.15
0.07
00
00
2.11
0.75
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Annual rainfall
3000
2750
2500
2250
y = 26.148x + 202.24
R = 0.2096
Rainfall in mm
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
The annual rainfall deviation, examined using the IMD criterion (Figure 11) indicates that
there are about 37.5 % (15 years) of Excess Rainfall, 37.5 % (15 Years) of Normal Rainfall
and 25 % (10 years) of Deficit Rainfall events.
Percentage deviation
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-80
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The Intensity of Rainfall was also examined using the IMD criterion. Annual frequency of
rather heavy rain day shows statistically significant increasing trend at 5 % significance
level. (Figure 12). Very light rain, Light rain, Moderate rain, Heavy rain, Very heavy rain,
extremely heavy rain days events show increasing trend though statistically insignificant. In
the last decade, frequency of very light rain and light rain days has increased.
The rainfall data has also been analyzed for the three major seasons, monsoon, winter and
summer. In the Monsoon season rainfall and rainy days showed a significant increasing trend
(Figure 13) with a rise of 4.86 mm and 2 days respectively. There was no statistically
significant increase in rainfall in the winter and summer seasons.
Month wise analysis of rainfall and rain days show statistically significant increasing trend in
the month of August 2.15 mm and one day/mm (Figure 14). Rainfall and rainy days in June,
July, September, October and December shows increasing trend but statistically insignificant
and November shows a statistically insignificant decreasing trend.
y = 0.128x + 0.8269
R = 0.1753
20
18
16
Rainy Days
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Figure 12: Annual frequency of rather heavy rainfall events in Sangamner during 1971-2010
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Rainfall in mm
y = 26.435x + 64.86
R = 0.209
y = 2.0839x - 2.8658
R = 0.1599
Rainy Days
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Figure 14: Number of rainy days during the month of August from 1970-2010 in Sangamner
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0.0
-0.5
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SPI
0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Serverely Dry
Moderate Dry
Near Normal
Moderate Wet
Very Vet
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CONCLUSION:
In the present study, long term trends for temperature show statistically insignificant rise in
annual temperatures but minimum temperature during monsoon show an increasing trend that
is statistically significant at 0.05 level. Study of monthly variations revealed rise in the
temperatures in the month of September.
Rainfall and Rainy days have also increased in past 4 decades. Annual and Monsoon rainfall
have been observed to increase, where the month of August shows a statistically significant
increasing trend. Any variability in monsoon season will have implications on agricultural
activities as the season overlaps with Kharif, a major cropping season for the country.
The variations of temperature and rainfall during monsoons may have impacts on the various
growth stages of the crops. Though the study shows that the length of dry spells has
decreased, exposure to short periods of high temperatures have serious implications on the
crop growth. Changing weather conditions may lead to increase in pest infestations,
pathogenic infections of the crops etc. which may lead to huge crop losses in the region.
In the face of climate variability it is therefore very important to understand the local climate
trends for the proper management of natural resources and livelihoods. Macro level studies
may or may not be relevant at village level and therefore the advisories generated may not
benefit the locals.
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Annual Rainfall
variation
Description
A day with at least 2.5 mm rain
Normal : Year that received +&-19 percent of mean annual
rainfall
Excess : Year that received more than 19 percent of mean annual
rainfall
Deficit : Year that received less than 19 percent of the mean
annual rainfall
Very light rain : 0.1-2.4 mm
Light rain : 2.5 -7.5 mm
Moderate rain : 7.6 -35.5 mm
Rather Heavy : 35.6-64.4 mm
Intensity of Rainfall
Standard Precipitation
Index
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