Data Management ISP

The Trends in Music Listenership

Submitted by: Judith Wang
Course: MDM4U1-03
Date: June 10, 2016
Teacher: A. Eisen

The Trends in Music Listenership

Introduction
The way people listen to music is always changing, dictated by the trends of our society
and our technology. Over the past few decades, we have witnessed the rise and fall narratives
of many music formats, some -- like the vinyl comeback -- being quite unexpected. Music exists

in our everyday lives and the method of listening has a direct impact on our lifestyle as well as
personal identity. It is worthwhile to explore how the industry is changing, especially for music
professionals who must make informed decisions as to how their music should be distributed.
In this report, the sales of various music formats will be explored as well as the possible
causes of their statistics.
Background
All data is acquired from the Recording Industry Association of America which collects
sales data for a multitude of formats in the United States of America. This analysis, however, will
focus on four variables: the sales of LP/EPs, CDs, paid subscriptions, and digital downloads.
These were chosen due to their high visibility and relevance to todays market.
LP/EPs and CDS: Both of these categories are referring to vinyl and CD albums. Vinyl and CD
singles were excluded from this analysis due to their low sales in the modern age.
Paid subscriptions: Refers to streaming services such as Spotify or Apple Music that require a
monthly subscription fee for access to a huge collection of music.
Digital downloads: Music that is downloaded from services such as iTunes. Combines data
from Download Single and Download Album (single and album sales).
The Fall of CDs

In the seven-year period of 2008-2015, the decrease in CD sales is apparent. Whereas

in 2008 they accounted for 74% of all music sales, it accounted for only 28% last year.
This data is not surprising. The concept of CDs have never been popular, even when it
was the top selling music format. Today, it lacks the beauty of a vinyl record and the
convenience of streaming or downloading. When other options began to present themselves
around the time of 2008, we could start to see the decline of CDs.

This relationship can be defined by the loss of sales for CDs versus the increase in
sales for other formats, since 2008.
The equation for the line of best fit of this data is y=0.54542x-240.76
The slope is m=0.54542 while the y-intercept is b=-240.76
The correlation coefficient is r=0.972, indicating a very strong positive correlation.

Where x=cumulative loss of CD sales (in millions) and y=cumulative gain of LP/EP, paid subscription, and digital download sales (in
millions), from 2008-2015.

This is a cause-and-effect correlation: as sales for other music formats increase, sales
for CDs decrease. Because more people are buying other music formats and experiencing their
superior value, they have no need to buy CDs.
Streaming vs. Digital Downloads
What will the digital world of music look like in 5 years?
The future is very hard to predict due to external factors. Nonetheless, we
can try to predict this number with the data from the past 5 years.

x=number of years from 2010, y=% out of digital music

sales (paid subscription + digital downloads) that are paid
subscription

The equation for the line of best fit is y=6.2x+1

To find y in 5 years from now, let x=11. y=69

Approximately 69% of the digital sales will be from

streaming if trends continue at this rate.
This is again a cause-and-effect relationship. In human history, our
technological progress has increased exponentially; we are always looking
for new ways to make our lives more convenient. Observing the trends of other industries, Uber
has critically damaged the taxi industry, Airbnb has eaten into the revenues of hotels, and Netflix
has completely wiped Blockbusters from existence. What is the constant among these
examples and streaming vs. digital downloads? Innovative technology providing on demand
unlimited access to goods and services.

Microsoft Corp. recently performed a study finding that people now generally lose
attention after 8 seconds. They theorize that humans decreasing attention span is due to heavy
exposure to digital media. This offers an explanation for the rise of brands like Spotify as it is
quicker and less tedious to stream than to manually pick out and build your music library.
The Vinyl Comeback

Vinyl sales are at the highest they have been since 1988. 2015s numbers of $416.2
million sales are a 3826% increase from the lowest sales year, $10.6 million in 1993. Whereas
cassettes, VHS tapes, and other memorabilia from the same era have died out, vinyl records
are not only surviving, but thriving.
My hypothesis is that much of the vinyl comeback is attributed to the social media age.
The difference between vinyl and digital streaming or downloads is that it is a physical form of
music, an art in itself. People have an obsession with sharing their lives on social media and
with vinyl, you have a physical embodiment of your music that is aesthetically pleasing for your
photo feed.
This phenomenon is similar to the comeback of polaroid cameras which have been
reimagined by Fujifilm as Instax Cameras. While modern times have obviously increased our
use of technology, people are also being disillusioned by the oversaturation of digital media and
many are driven away. Throwbacks to a more genuine time before the internet have become
increasingly appealing novelties.
Regardless of the reason, it is a beautiful thing to see baby boomers and millennials
share a passion for an aspect in music.

Obstacles
One of the obstacles I faced early in this project was deciding between the two data sets
that were available, units sold and revenue generated. I had initially not wanted to use revenue
because prices fluctuate constantly and this inconsistency might have had a negative impact on

the results. However, I realized that it is unfair to compare purchasing a $1.29 song online to
going to the store and purchasing a $20 LP record as equals. Therefore, I decided to use
revenue, as it would mediate the discrepancies. The most important matter in business is
money: the number of units sold is irrelevant if it is not generating enough revenue.
One detail is that it would have been most ideal to have data for the profits instead of
revenue, given that the cost of manufacturing a vinyl record would be more than that for putting
a song up for download.
Another issue I noticed in the data was that the total number of music sales was not
consistent because those were raw numbers. If general music sales were high one year and low
another year, one cannot say that the sales for a certain format decreased without considering
the rate as it could have just been a poor year for music. That is why it was necessary to
calculate relative percentages and utilize them in my analysis.
If I were to do this report again, I would have dug deeper to find a more interesting
statistic to compare than sales lost vs. sales gained. I had been hoping to obtain data for todays
technology and the way it affects our societys psychology. My discussions of it are merely
based on theory and it would be fascinating to have concrete numbers to experiment it.
In future studies, data could be collected, asking people to rate their attention span, state
their favourite music genre, social media habits, their music format preference, and see if there
is a correlation among these answers. The relationship between the success of new age brands
like Spotify, Airbnb, Uber, and Netflix could also be further explored to see if there is a commoncause factor. Finally, it would be interesting to research whether or not a phenomenon like the
vinyl comeback has ever happened before in a past cultural era. Comparing their data as well
as the external factors that had an effect would make it possible to observe mutual patterns and
look for ways to predict it.
Conclusion
As our world continues to change, our culture and the ways we choose to engage in
them will too. It is incredibly essential to stay on top of trends to make decisions for personal
investments as well as multi-million dollar business deals. If only Blockbusters CEO had been
aware of the Internets imminent take over when he declined to purchase Netflix.
In the world of music, it would seem like digital music formats will continue to be on top
for the foreseeable future. It is always unclear what new innovation or trend could arise at any
time and take the industry by surprise. However, one thing is certain: Music formats can come
and go, but music itself is here to stay.

References
U.S. Sales Database - RIAA. (n.d.). Retrieved June 10, 2016, from https://www.riaa.com/u-ssales-database/

You Now Have a Shorter Attention Span Than a Goldfish. (n.d.). Retrieved June 10, 2016, from
http://time.com/3858309/attention-spans-goldfish/