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    James Stevenson

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    Bret Clens
    1. Agricultural intensification through higher crop yields can help reduce agricultural expansion and save land from being converted to agriculture according to the "Borlaug hypothesis". 2. A study found that without increases in crop yields from plant breeding since 1965, global agricultural area would have been 18-26 million hectares larger, around the size of the United Kingdom. 3. However, yield increases alone are not sufficient to save forests - policies and land use planning are also needed to protect forests from agricultural conversion.

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    James Stevenson

    Uploaded by

    Bret Clens
    18 views14 pages
    1. Agricultural intensification through higher crop yields can help reduce agricultural expansion and save land from being converted to agriculture according to the "Borlaug hypothesis". 2. A study found that without increases in crop yields from plant breeding since 1965, global agricultural area would have been 18-26 million hectares larger, around the size of the United Kingdom. 3. However, yield increases alone are not sufficient to save forests - policies and land use planning are also needed to protect forests from agricultural conversion.

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    1. Agricultural intensification through higher crop yields can help reduce agricultural expansion and save land from being converted to agriculture according to the "Borlaug hypothesis". 2. A study found that without increases in crop yields from plant breeding since 1965, global agricultural area would have been 18-26 million hectares larger, around the size of the United Kingdom. 3. However, yield increases alone are not sufficient to save forests - policies and land use planning are also needed to protect forests from agricultural conversion.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    18 views14 pages

    James Stevenson

    Uploaded by

    Bret Clens
    1. Agricultural intensification through higher crop yields can help reduce agricultural expansion and save land from being converted to agriculture according to the "Borlaug hypothesis". 2. A study found that without increases in crop yields from plant breeding since 1965, global agricultural area would have been 18-26 million hectares larger, around the size of the United Kingdom. 3. However, yield increases alone are not sufficient to save forests - policies and land use planning are also needed to protect forests from agricultural conversion.

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    of 14

    Agriculturalintensificationandthe

    Agricultural
    intensification and the
    environment:PerspectivesfromtheCGIAR

    DrJamesStevenson
    D
    J
    St
    AgriculturalResearchOfficer
    CGIARIndependentScienceand
    d
    d
    i
    d
    PartnershipCouncil(ISPC)Secretariat

    Solutionsforacultivatedplanet:
    Foleyetal,Nature,20Oct2011

    Fourpriorityobjectivesidentified:
    g
    p
    Haltagriculturalexpansion
    Close'yieldgaps'onunderperforminglands
    Increaseagriculturalresourceefficiency
    Increase agricultural resource efficiency
    Shiftawayfromlivestockfeed,bioenergy cropsand
    othernonfoodapplications
    h
    f d
    li i
    thequestionis,how?

    CGIARScienceForum2011:
    TheAgriculture
    Th
    A i lt
    E i
    EnvironmentNexus
    tN

    ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences
    Beijing 17 19Oct2011
    Beijing,17
    19 Oct 2011

    Sessions:
    Resourcescarcityandecologicalintensification
    SustainabilityScience
    Sustainability Science
    Metricsandmonitoringoftheenvironment
    Canintensifyingagriculturesavetheforests?
    g
    y
    Agrobiodiversity
    Demandforanimalprotein

    Twobroad
    alternative
    policy
    objectives

    Landsharing

    Phalan etal (2011)

    Lowexternalinput,
    Singlespecies
    g p

    Extensivepolyculture

    Semiintensive
    polyculture
    p
    y

    Scoreshighestfor:
    Netprotein
    production
    Labour demand

    Scoreshighestfor:
    Stability
    Nuseefficiency

    Scoreshighestfor:
    Meangross
    M
    margin

    Stevenson(2006)

    Isalandsparingstrategypossible?
    Raising
    Raisingyieldsonexistingagriculturallandssavesland
    yields on existing agricultural lands saves land
    frombeingbroughtincultivationelsewhere(AKA
    the
    theBorlaughypothesis
    Borlaug hypothesis))
    Populationx(Food/Population) (Food/Agricland)xAgricland
    Percapitaconsumption

    i.e.
    Global demand
    Globaldemand

    Agriculturalyield

    Global supply
    Globalsupply

    1962

    2007

    %
    %
    increase

    Population(billions)

    3.13

    6.62

    112

    Cerealconsumption percapita
    (kg/capita/yr for all uses)
    (kg/capita/yrforalluses)

    294.3

    358.3

    22

    Areaharvested(Mha ofcereals) 653.7

    697.2

    Cerealsyield(t/ha)

    3.40

    142

    D
    Demand
    d side
    id

    Supply side

    1.41

    Angelsen (2010)

    Logicmodel:ImpactoftheGreenRevolution

    Farmers
    adopt
    adopt
    modern
    varieties

    Cropyields
    higher than
    higherthan
    counter
    factual

    Output
    prices
    p
    lowerthan
    counter
    factual

    Lowerland
    rentsfrom
    agriculture
    vs.forest

    Agricarea
    decreases
    vs.counter
    factual

    Output
    prices
    p
    counter
    factual

    Higherland
    rentsfrom
    agriculture
    vs.forest

    Agricarea
    increases
    vs.counter
    factual

    Counterfactual:Aworldwithoutcropgermplasm
    C
    t f t l A
    ld ith t
    l
    i
    improvement
    t
    since1965

    Method: Overview
    Adoptiondatafrommajorcrop
    xcountrycombinations
    Estimateaverageyieldgainof
    MVs / TVs and late MVs /
    MVs/TVsandlateMVs/
    earlyMVs
    Estimatetotalcontributionto
    yieldsfromcropgermplasm
    improvement

    2003bookbasedonCGIAR
    impactassessmentproject

    Applybackcastingexperiment
    Apply
    backcasting experiment
    inGTAPAEZthatremoves
    theseproductivitygains
    p
    yg
    fromamodeloftheglobal
    economyin2004

    Newresearch:
    New
    research:
    CollaborationwithNelson
    Villoria at Purdue University
    VilloriaatPurdueUniversity

    Method: Productivityshocks
    y

    Allcrops,all
    regions
    Asia
    LatinAmerica
    MENA
    SSAfrica

    Annual%contribution
    ofCGItoyieldgrowth

    Compoundedvalue
    1965 2004(%)

    0.72
    0 88
    0.88
    0.66
    0 69
    0.69
    0.28

    32.2
    41
    29.2
    30 7
    30.7
    11.5

    In aworldwithoutplant
    a world without plant
    breeding...

    Rice

    Coarse
    Coarse
    grains

    Prices
    i
    (% i
    (%increase,lowerbound)
    l
    b
    d) 29

    68

    20

    Area ((%increase,lowerbound)
    ,
    ) 9.4

    20

    Inaworldwithoutplant
    p
    breeding
    Developingcountries
    (%increase)
    Developedcountries
    (%increase)

    Wheat

    Cropland
    p
    Forests

    Pasture

    1.52

    0.86

    0.66

    0.87

    0.51

    0.36

    Headline:Agriculturalareawouldhavebeen18to26million
    Headline:
    Agricultural area would have been 18 to 26 million
    hectareslarger anareathesizeoftheUK

    Conclusions
    Adoptinghigheryieldingvarietiescan helpsavelandfrom
    being brought into agricultural use
    beingbroughtintoagriculturaluse
    Yieldincreasesnecessarybutnotsufficienttosaveforests
    Researchagenda:
    Refinementstoglobalmodelsoflandusechange
    Technologyneutralanalysisoftradeoffsforarange
    ec o ogy eut a a a ys s o t ade o s o a a ge
    ofsystems(yield,labouruse,emissionsetc)
    Ecologicalimplicationsofalternativelandscapes(net
    Ecological implications of alternative landscapes (net
    emissions,biodiversity)
    Careful,comparativeanalysistounderstandrightmix
    Careful comparative analysis to understand right mix
    ofinstitutionsforeffectiveforestprotection

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