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Nepal Conflict
Nepal Conflict
adhav Nepal in 2009, enjoyed coalition combinations based on the NC and CPN(UML)
or the CPN(UML) and Maoists, with added support from some of the smaller partie
s.
During the years out of power, Mr. Prachanda saw a weakening of his position as
also that of his party. In 2011, when the Maoists got another chance to lead the
government, coalition partners preferred his colleague Baburam Bhattarai as bei
ng more dependable. Dr. Bhattarai became Prime Minister and Mr. Prachanda sulked
; later the two drifted apart and eventually, last year Dr. Bhattarai split from
the Maoists, launching his own party, Naya Shakti. The hard-line faction led by
Mohan Baidya Kiran had already split in 2012, accusing Mr. Prachanda of being a
revisionist .
The 2013 elections brought down the Maoist strength from 229 to 80; in contrast,
the NC emerged as the largest party with 196 seats, followed by the CPN(UML) wi
th 175. Therefore while Mr. Prachanda has become Prime Minister because of his r
ole as kingmaker, his party is clearly the junior partner in the new coalition.
All of this should certainly make the new Prime Minister a little more cautious
and careful in managing the coalition.
Under the terms of the understanding with the NC, Mr. Prachanda s tenure will be n
ine months, during which local body elections will be conducted. Thereafter, he
is expected to step down in support of NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba who will be
taking over as Prime Minister for the fourth time. He will oversee the provincia
l and national elections that are likely to be held in November next year, in ac
cordance with the new Constitution.
Prachanda s opportunity
The NC-Maoist coalition will be faced with a number of challenges in the coming
months. Mr. Prachanda is still struggling to give shape to his Cabinet. He would
like to get the Madhesi groups and Janajatis on board but the Sanghiya Gathaban
dhan want to first see what kind of pronouncements are made about making the new
Constitution truly federal and inclusive. Here, Mr. Prachanda will have to use
his political charm to hold out a healing hand, something that his predecessor f
ailed to understand.
To strengthen his leadership within his party, Mr. Prachanda would like to bring
the pending legal cases against the Maoist cadre going back to the decade-long
insurgency (1996-2005) to a closure, which could lead to strains with the NC. It
was during Mr. Deuba s earlier tenure as Prime Minister in 2001 that the Nepal Ar
my was first deployed against the Maoists and Mr. Prachanda would do well to ste
er clear of going down the path of another confrontation with the Army. One of h
is major complaints against the Oli government was its reluctance to resolve the
se pending cases, but doing it in a manner that is acceptable to the cadre and d
oes not lead to legal challenges will not be easy.
Easier perhaps are simple steps to get the post-earthquake reconstruction effort
s going. The international community had generously pledged $4.4 billion for the
reconstruction effort at an international conference held in Kathmandu last yea
r. Yet, very little of this money has actually come in because the Oli governmen
t wasted months in seeking to establish new institutional mechanisms, leading to
turf battles. India has pledged $1.65 billion of concessional funds during the
last two years but has been able to use up only $150 million. Similar is the sit
uation with the Indian grant assistance of $250 million intended for rebuilding
dwelling units in some of the worst-affected areas. Other development partners t
oo have similar experiences and in some cases, lack of utilisation may well lead
to the pledges lapsing on account of budgetary cycles.
On the foreign policy front, Mr. Prachanda needs to repair the damage done by hi
s predecessor Mr. Oli to relations with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has
already congratulated him on his appointment and invited him for a bilateral vis
it. The last time Mr. Prachanda visited India as Prime Minister was in September
2008 but the goodwill generated was short-lived as he began to blame Indian int
erference to cover up for his shortcomings. He has another opportunity now to ma
ke his second nine-month tenure truly productive and recover his lost political
legacy.
Rakesh Sood is a former diplomat who has served as Ambassador to Nepal and is cu
rrently Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
Keywords: Prachanda, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepal PM election