CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing 20130205

05-Feb-13
CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing

Commodities
Close
1 Day
1 week
3.767 / 8305
0.96 / 2112
8.494 / 18725
0.99 / 2185
1.11 / 2451
11.294 / 24900
0.2%
-0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
2.5%
5.0%
4.3%
1.9%
1.2%
154.20
170.00
0.7%
1,674.90
31.71
1,695.50
1 mth
% change
3 mth
6 mth
12 mth
1.7%
-0.2%
7.0%
4.6%
2.1%
3.8%
8.6%
10.8%
17.8%
17.0%
15.3%
23.9%
11.6%
13.5%
20.0%
18.8%
29.3%
39.1%
-2.3%
-5.0%
-13.7%
2.6%
12.4%
1.6%
3.9%
1.8%
2.9%
7.1%
28.0%
16.2%
32.1%
-6.3%
6.5%
-22.7%
0.3%
-0.4%
0.7%
0.8%
1.0%
1.0%
0.0%
5.1%
8.5%
-0.5%
1.7%
9.9%
4.3%
14.0%
20.6%
-2.8%
-5.8%
4.2%
96.15
115.61
3.31
95.60
-1.7%
-1.0%
0.1%
0.2%
-1.5%
1.1%
2.4%
0.3%
3.5%
3.1%
3.3%
1.3%
12.3%
7.3%
-7.0%
14.7%
5.2%
6.1%
14.9%
6.5%
-0.8%
-0.3%
29.6%
-19.0%
14.86
7.32
7.61
1.44
81.72
18.73
0.8%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-2.4%
-1.5%
-0.8%
2.4%
0.4%
-2.0%
-3.6%
-0.8%
1.9%
7.2%
6.2%
0.8%
-1.5%
8.4%
-1.9%
0.3%
-0.8%
-13.4%
-7.3%
14.1%
-3.1%
-3.6%
-9.5%
-15.9%
-19.8%
9.0%
-16.5%
19.3%
23.5%
2.8%
-38.5%
-17.0%
-22.9%
Close
1 Day
1 week
1 mth
% change
3 mth
6 mth
12 mth
374,200
5,153,350
150,906
1,202,050
290,075
13,625
-0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
-0.3%
0.7%
-0.7%
-0.9%
3.7%
16.9%
-1.1%
6.5%
-1.3%
-7.8%
7.5%
55.1%
1.5%
16.0%
2.8%
-9.1%
13.2%
52.9%
5.9%
30.9%
21.1%
-11.3%
17.0%
15.8%
2.7%
59.7%
43.3%
-22.6%
44.9%
369,062
2,802
2,242
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
-20.3%
-2.3%
-1.5%
-28.7%
10.8%
-0.2%
-13.5%
-9.1%
8.8%
-3.0%
-1.8%
Iron Ore - China Ports (Mt)

Gold ETF Holdings (Moz)
Platinum ETF Holdings (Moz)
78.85
84.00
1.64
-2.4%
0.1%
0.1%
-4.8%
-0.3%
9.0%
-15.5%
1.1%
9.2%
-20.7%
8.8%
21.2%
-20.5%
9.5%
22.6%
Macro Data
Close
1 Day
1 week
3 mth
6 mth
12 mth
1497.98
14.46
302.75
3614.1
5,129.9
353.87
255.57
-1.00%
12.09%
-0.76%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.65%
8.64%
0.30%
2.69%
1.28%
1.24%
-0.60%
2.65%
-0.69%
2.40%
2.10%
4.37%
-1.91%
4.76%
5.70%
-21.50%
3.57%
11.16%
7.11%
3.61%
6.18%
7.69%
-7.54%
0.69%
14.90%
4.47%
14.91%
7.50%
11.43%
-18.58%
-3.64%
-2.75%
1.51%
-15.16%
1.00%
1.0435
1.3516
92.32
0.9979
5129.8999
0.27%
-0.91%
-0.49%
0.14%
0.00%
-0.38%
0.18%
1.75%
-0.30%
1.28%
-0.30%
3.58%
5.82%
1.02%
4.37%
0.68%
5.63%
14.98%
0.15%
7.11%
-1.27%
9.11%
17.65%
-0.34%
4.47%
-2.71%
2.94%
20.60%
0.19%
1.51%
LME Base Metals
Copper ($/lb, $/t)

Aluminium ($/lb, $/t)
Nickel ($/lb, $/t)
Zinc ($/lb, $/t)
Lead ($/lb, $/t)
Tin ($/lb, $/t)
Steel Making Raw Materials
Iron Ore ($/t CFR China)
Premium HCC ($/t FOB Aus)
Precious Metals
Gold ($/oz)
Silver ($/oz)
Platinum ($/oz)
Energy
Oil - WTI ($/bbl)
Oil - Brent ($/bbl)
Natural Gas (HH, $/bcf)
Thermal Coal (Newc, $/t)
Soft Commodities
Soybeans ($/bu)
Corn ($/bu)
Wheat ($/bu)
Coffee ($/lb)
Cotton (c/lb)
Sugar (c/lb)
Inventories
LME Metals (kt)
Copper
Aluminium
Nickel
Zinc
Lead
Tin
Energy
DOE Crude Oil ('000 bbl)

DOE NatGas (bcf)
Thermal Coal - China
Other
1 mth
% change
Key Indices
S&P 500
VIX
CRB Index
LME Index
SP GSCI Commodity Total Return
MSCI World Metals & Mining Index
MSCI World Energy Sector Index
Currencies
AUD
EUR
JPY
CAD
ZAR
05-Feb-13

Prices
9,000
2,400
Copper
$/t
23,000 $/t
Aluminium
$/t
8,500
Nickel
21,000
2,200
8,000
19,000
7,500
2,000
17,000
7,000
6,500
Feb-12
2,400
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
2,600
Zinc
$/t
1,800
Feb-12
2,200
$/t
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
15,000
Feb-12
May-12
26,000 $/t
Lead
2,400
24,000
2,200
22,000
2,000
20,000
1,800
18,000
1,600
Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
16,000
Feb-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Tin
2,000
1,800
1,600
Feb-12
180
160
May-12
$/t
CFR
China
Aug-12
Nov-12
280
Iron Ore
$/t
FOB
Hard Coking Coal
120
230
140
Thermal Coal (Newc)
100
180
100
90
80
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
120
Brent Oil
$/bbl
130
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
Feb-12
18
$/t
FOB
110
120
130
130
May-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Sep-12 Nov-12
WTI Oil
4.5
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
HH Nat Gas
$/mcf
2.5
$/bu
Corn
16
80
Feb-12
3.5
70
9
Soybeans
$/bu
$/bbl
Jul-12
1.5
Feb-12
10
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Wheat
$/bu
7
14
8
6
12
10
Feb-12
2.5
5
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
110
Coffee
$/lb
4
c/lb
Cocoa
6
Feb-12
27
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Sugar
c/lb
25
2.0
90
1.5
70
23
21
19
1.0
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
50
17
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
05-Feb-13

Inventories
400
5,300
Copper
kt
160
Aluminium
kt
350
kt
Nickel
140
5,100
300
120
250
4,900
100
200
150
Feb-12
1,300
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
400
Zinc
kt
4,700
1,100
16
Lead
kt
80
350
14
300
12
250
10
kt
Tin
900
700
Feb-12
110
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Iron Ore (China)
Mt
200
Feb-12
90 Moz
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Gold ETF Holdings
8
2.0
100
85
1.5
90
80
1.0
80
75
0.5
70
Feb-12
400
May-12
'000 bbl
Aug-12
Nov-12
DOE Crude Oil
70
Feb-12
5
380
360
340
320
300
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
bcf
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
DOE HH Gas
2
Moz
Platinum ETF Holdings
0.0
30
Mt
China Thermal Coal
25
20
15
05-Feb-13

Forward Curves
2,800
9000
Aluminium
30000
Copper
Nickel
8500
20000
8000
2,400
7500
Latest
7-Nov-12
110M
7-Nov-12
30,000
Zinc
Latest
1,000
Latest
110
110
26M
22M
17M
6-Jan-13
Latest
6-Jan-13
Latest
6-Jan-13
100
5M
Latest
3.5
2.5
1M
5M
9M
13M
17M
22M
26M
30M
34M
38M
42M
46M
50M
1M
7M
13M
20M
26M
32M
38M
44M
50M
56M
62M
68M
74M
3M
4.5
7-Nov-12
90
Gas
5.5
7-Nov-12
70
2M
1M
17M
13M
11M
9M
7M
5M
15M
6.5
Brent
7-Nov-12
1,400
6-Jan-13
7-Nov-12
1M
7M
13M
20M
26M
32M
38M
44M
50M
56M
62M
68M
74M
90
120
3M
1M
17M
15M
13M
11M
9M
7M
5M
3M
1M
WTI
Latest
7-Nov-12
25
1500
1,500
6-Jan-13
4M
27
7-Nov-12
80
13M
Latest
6-Jan-13
100
9M
1,600
Latest
1600
Platinum
1,700
29
1700
5M
1,800
Silver
31
1800
50
1M
1M
7M
13M
20M
26M
32M
38M
44M
50M
56M
62M
68M
42M
38M
34M
30M
22M
17M
13M
9M
5M
1M
26M
33
Gold
15M
16-Oct-12
80
1900
13M
15-Dec-12
16-Oct-12
80
11M
9M
Latest
60
15-Dec-12
90
100
7M
Latest
38M
100
7-Nov-12
5M
70
6-Jan-13
120
US Coal
34M
Latest
7-Nov-12
30M
140
80
Thermal Coal (Newc)
6-Jan-13
1M
6M
11M
16M
22M
27M
32M
37M
42M
47M
52M
57M
62M
1M
6M
11M
16M
22M
27M
32M
37M
42M
47M
52M
57M
62M
120
Iron Ore
Latest
7-Nov-12
3M
7-Nov-12
160
10,000
6-Jan-13
6-Jan-13
2,000
Tin
20,000
2,000
2,200
1M
98M
86M
74M
62M
50M
38M
26M
13M
1M
2,400
6-Jan-13
7-Nov-12
3,000
Lead
Latest
10000
6-Jan-13
6500
2,000
2,600
Latest
7000
6-Jan-13
1M
11M
22M
32M
42M
52M
62M
72M
82M
92M
102M
112M
2,200
1M
6M
11M
16M
22M
27M
32M
37M
42M
47M
52M
57M
62M
2,600
05-Feb-13

Economic Calandar
Event
Electronics Sector Index
Purchasing Managers Index
ISM New York
Factory Orders
Foreign Exchange Reserve USD
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM)
Core CPI (YoY)
HSBC Services PMI
GDP Constant Price (YoY)
GDP Constant Price (QoQ)
Annual GDP
India January Markit Services PMI
PMI Services
PMI Services
PMI Composite
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM)
Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)
Danareksa Consumer Confidence
Foreign Reserves
Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)
Consumer Confidence Index
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E
Factory Orders MoM (sa)
Factory Orders YoY (nsa)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Monte Paschi Holds Board Meeting in Siena
Annual GDP Govt. Estimate YoY%
Foreign Reserves
Industrial Production MoM (sa)
Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda)
ECB Announces Interest Rates
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
Foreign Reserves
Nonfarm Productivity
Unit Labor Costs
Initial Jobless Claims
Reg
SI
SI
US
US
SK
PH
PH
PH
CH
ID
ID
ID
IN
GE
EC
EC
EC
EC
ID
ID
ID
ID
US
US
SI
SI
SI
GE
GE
US
IT
IN
SI
GE
GE
EC
EC
PH
US
US
US
Date Time
02/05/2013 00:30
02/05/2013 00:30
02/05/2013 01:45
02/05/2013 02:00
02/05/2013 08:00
02/05/2013 12:00
02/05/2013 12:00
02/05/2013 12:00
02/05/2013 12:45
02/05/2013 15:00
02/05/2013 15:00
02/05/2013 15:00
02/05/2013 16:00
02/05/2013 19:55
02/05/2013 20:00
02/05/2013 20:00
02/05/2013 21:00
02/05/2013 21:00
04-05 FEB
04-07 FEB
04-07 FEB
04-11 FEB
02/06/2013 02:00
02/06/2013 02:00
02/06/2013 19:00
02/06/2013 19:00
02/06/2013 19:00
02/06/2013 22:00
02/06/2013 22:00
02/06/2013 23:00
02/07/2013 00:00
02/07/2013 16:30
02/07/2013 20:00
02/07/2013 22:00
02/07/2013 22:00
02/07/2013 23:45
02/07/2013 23:45
02/07/2013
02/08/2013 00:30
02/08/2013 00:30
02/08/2013 00:30
Survey
47.1
48.8
53.0
2.30%
-3.00%
0.60%
3.10%
-6.20%
-1.30%
6.29%
00.0
55.3
48.3
48.2
-0.50%
-1.40%
----55.0
47.3
---0.70%
-1.20%
-00.0
5.50%
-0.20%
-0.50%
0.75%
0.00%
--1.40%
3.00%
360K
Actual
49.9
50.2
56.7
1.80%
--------00.0
-----------------00.0
-----------
Prior
46.6
48.6
54.3
0.00%
$326.97B
2.90%
-0.10%
3.30%
51.7
6.17%
3.21%
-00.0
55.3
48.3
48.2
0.10%
-2.60%
94.6
$112.78B
1056.08T
116.4
56.1
46.5
91010.0
95501.0
97889.0
-1.80%
-1.00%
-8.10%
00.0
6.20%
$259.31B
0.20%
-2.90%
0.75%
0.00%
$84.2B
2.90%
-1.90%
368K
Date
5/02/13
5/02/13
5/02/13
5/02/13
5/02/13
5/02/13
5/02/13
5/02/13
6/02/13
5/02/13
6/02/13
5/02/13
6/02/13
6/02/13
6/02/13
6/02/13
6/02/13
6/02/13
6/02/13
7/02/13
7/02/13
7/02/13
Type
EC
EC
ER
EC
SM
ER
ER
ER
EC
ER
EC
ER
ER
ER
ER
EC
ER
ER
ER
CP
EC
EC
Period
C2 2013
Y 2012
Y 2012
Y 2012
Events Calandar
Company Name
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd
Randgold Resources Ltd
APERAM
APERAM
Maanshan Iron & Steel
(C) Yodogawa Steel Works Ltd
SunCoke Energy Inc
Arch Coal Inc
SunCoke Energy Inc
Fangda Carbon New Material Co Ltd
Arch Coal Inc
(C) JSW Steel Ltd
(C) Maruichi Steel Tube Ltd
(C) Furukawa-Sky Aluminum Corp
Hoganas AB
Hoganas AB
RTI International Metals Inc
ArcelorMittal
Compass Minerals International Inc
Carpenter Technology Corp
Compass Minerals International Inc
RTI International Metals Inc
Description
S1 2013 Earnings Call
Y 2012 Earnings Call
Y 2012 Earnings Release
Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting
Q3 2013 Earnings Release
Q4 2012 Earnings Call
Cowen Aerospace and Defense Conference
Ticker
HAR SJ
RRS LN
APAM NA
APAM NA
323 HK
5451 JP
SXC US
ACI US
SXC US
600516 CH
ACI US
JSTL IN
5463 JP
5741 JP
HOGAB SS
HOGAB SS
RTI US
MT NA
CMP US
CRS US
CMP US
RTI US
Q3 2013
Q4 2012
Q4 2012
Q4 2012
Y 2012
Q4 2012
Q3 2013
Q3 2013
Q3 2013
Y 2012
Y 2012
Q4 2012
Y 2012
Q4 2012
Q4 2012
Q4 2012
05-Feb-13

CIMB Commodity Price Forecasts
Unit
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
2013
2014
US$/t
US$/lb
US$/t
US$/lb
US$/t
US$/lb
US$/t
US$/lb
US$/t
US$/lb
US$/t
US$/lb
8,200
3.72
2,100
0.95
2,300
1.04
18,000
8.16
2,100
0.95
23,000
10.43
8,400
3.81
2,150
0.98
2,400
1.09
19,500
8.85
2,200
1.00
25,000
11.34
8,300
3.76
2,150
0.98
2,200
1.00
20,000
9.07
2,200
1.00
24,000
10.89
8,000
3.63
2,100
0.95
2,100
0.95
21,000
9.53
2,300
1.04
24,000
10.89
8,225
3.73
2,125
0.96
2,250
1.02
19,625
8.90
2,200
1.00
24,000
10.89
8,100
3.67
2,225
1.01
2,250
1.02
22,500
10.21
2,413
1.09
25,000
11.34
Precious metals
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
1,750
31.00
1,700
775
1,800
31.00
1,800
775
1,600
29.00
1,850
825
1,600
29.00
1,850
825
1,688
30.00
1,800
800
1,425
26.00
1,725
925
Steel Making Raw Materials

Iron Ore (CFR China)
Hard Coking Coal
Semi Soft Coking Coal
LV PCI Coal
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
140.0
165.0
110.0
125.0
145.0
180.0
115.0
130.0
135.0
200.0
135.0
140.0
130.0
200.0
145.0
150.0
137.5
186.3
126.3
136.3
133.8
230.0
165.0
180.0
Energy
WTI
Brent
Henry Hub Natural Gas
Thermal Coal (Newcastle FOB)
Uranium (spot)
US$/bbl
US$/bbl
US$/mcf
US$/t
US$/t
95.0
110.0
4.00
97.0
50.0
95.0
115.0
4.00
102.0
50.0
93.0
120.0
4.00
105.0
55.0
93.0
115.0
4.00
110.0
55.0
94.0
115.0
4.00
103.5
52.5
91.0
107.5
4.50
115.0
55.0
Base Metals
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Zinc
Tin

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05-Feb-13

CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing

Iron Ore - China Ports (Mt)

LME Base Metals

Copper ($/lb, $/t)

DOE Crude Oil ('000 bbl)

CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing

Hard Coking Coal

Thermal Coal (Newc)

CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing

Iron Ore (China)

Gold ETF Holdings

DOE Crude Oil

Platinum ETF Holdings

China Thermal Coal

CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing

Thermal Coal (Newc)

CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing

CIMB Commodities Daily Briefing

Steel Making Raw Materials

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