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The Prediction of China CO2 Emission in 2015
The Prediction of China CO2 Emission in 2015
IJES
INTRODUCTION
IJES
METHODS
Energy
Natural
Renewable
Gas
Energy
71.1
19.3
2.9
6.7
71.1
18.8
3.3
6.8
204013.6
70.3
18.3
3.7
7.7
2009
214652.9
70.4
17.9
3.9
7.8
2010
227500.0
70.0
17.6
4.0
8.4
Coal
Oil
Ten Thousand
Tons of Oil
Equivalent
2006
181073.2
2007
196355.6
2008
Consumption
x ( 0 ) = x ( 0 ) (1), x ( 0 ) (2 ), , x ( 0 ) (n )
Define x
(1)
(2)
(1)
(1) = x (1)
(1)
(k ) = x ( 0 ) (i )
(3)
(0)
k
(1)
According to Statistical Review of World Energy
published by B.P [5], we can obtain the data of China's energy
structure and total energy consumption in 2010 as shown in
Table .
i =1
4
Then the grey differential equation modes definition of
(0)
(k ) + az (k ) = b
(1)
IJES
TableII THE PREDICTION OF CHINA ENERGY STRUCTURE FROM 2011
TO 2015
(5)
+b
x (k)
x(0)
1
MEAN
z(1)
AGO
Define: y N = x
(0)
z (1) (2 ) 1
z (1) (3) 1
B=
z (1) (n ) 1
a
p =
b
(6)
69.6
17.2
4.3
9.0
2012
69.3
16.8
4.5
9.4
2013
68.8
16.5
4.7
10.0
2014
68.3
16.1
5.0
10.5
2015
67.8
15.8
5.2
11.1
BT yN
4) GM (1, 1) Forecast:
After getting a, b, GM (1, 1) prediction model is:
b
b
x (1) (k + 1) = x ( 0 ) (1) e ak +
a
a
(7)
x ( 0 ) (k + 1) = x (1) (k + 1) x (1) (k )
III
RESULTS
Oil
Gas
Ren.
67.8
15.8
5.2
11.1
100
Quantity
25.99
4.23
1.39
4.25
38.27
Unit
108t.c.e
108t.o.e
1011m3
108t.c.e
108t.c.e
CO2
72.3
Unit
108ton
7.8
108ton
2.1
108ton
0.0
108ton
82.2
108ton
IV
Coal
Ratio
Total
Then: y N = BP
P = BT B
Renewable
Energy
x ( 0 ) (n ) + az (1) (n ) = b
(0)
Gas
2011
(0)
Oil
x(1)
-a
Coal
Year
x ( 0 ) (k 1)
[0.1353,7.389]
x 0 (k )
(8)
IJES
[4]
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
[5]
REFERENCES
[6]
[1]
[2]
[3]
Guo Shaofeng. China has been the first powerful country of carbon
emissions reduction [OL]. November 26, 2011. XINHUANET.com
Chinese State Council. the "twelfth five-year" work plan to control
greenhouse gas emissions [R/OL]. November 10, 2011.
XINHUANET.com
Ban Ki-moon. China's exciting contribution to the world
sustainable energy development [OL].
January 17, 2011.
XINHUANET.com
[7]
[8]