SASKATCHEWAN SUMMER

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM MST, AUGUST 29, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETOWRK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,690 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR on August 22-23, 2016. A mixture of
landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.38%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender
based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

SUMMER OF DISCONTENT
August 29, (Montreal, QC) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds a drop in Saskatchewan Party support after
a rough political summer - though Premier Walls approval rating remains mostly unchanged. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.38%, 19 times out of 20.
Its been a rough political summer for the Saskatchewan Party, said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President
of Mainstreet Research. Were seeing some of the eects now begin to aect voting intentions - the NDP are
up 5% among those decided and leaning. In Regina the NDP now lead the Saskatchewan party by 13%, 52%-39%.
Alongside the tough political summer the mantra of transformational government may be causing uncertainty
in Regina where issues aecting public servants hit closer to home.
Right now no one is quite sure what transformational government means - which leaves everyone free to
assume the worst. Interestingly the approval rating for Premier Wall is largely unchanged. Saskatchewanians
may not be expecting the Premier to seek re-election and may have begun pricing that in. Certainly, there does
not appear to be any clear successor to the leadership if the Premier were to depart. All that being said, the NDP
has no permanent leader and the Sask Party would still win a majority government with these numbers.
The Mainstreet poll also looked at Saskatchewanians views around drinking and driving.
Saskatchewan has been labeled the drinking and driving capital of Canada in the past and were seeing some
interesting numbers in the polling, continued Valentin. Its important to remember however that there is a
certain amount of social desirability bias - sometimes respondents are not as truthful when answering these
sorts of questions. 15% of Saskatchewanians tell us theyve been a passenger in a car with a driver under the
inuence of alcohol - and 8% say theyve driven under the inuence of alcohol.
A strong majority - 68%, say Don McMorris should not seek re-election when his term is over. It may have been
easier for a backbencher or a dierent minister to weather this kind of controversy. However Mr. McMorris was
the Minister leading the charge against drinking and driving in the province and was then caught doing exactly
that. For now, it appears the hypocrisy is too much for Saskatchewanians across the province.
Perhaps the most interesting number in the survey is what happened when we presented a specic scenario to
respondents: would it be OK to drive under the inuence of alcohol if someone was driving a short distance on
a quiet road? 19% approved of the conduct with 24% of those aged 18-34 approving, nished Valentin.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and
a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to
correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for phone interview from Montreal: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A11

If the provincial election were held today which

party would you support?
[DECIDED AND LEANING]

65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

Aug 23

June 13

Mar 31

Mar 16

Mar 8

Mar 1

Feb 23

Feb 11

Jan 4

Oct 6

A8

DECIDED AND LEANING

Oct 6 57%

32%

Jan 4 59%

28%

Feb 11 56%

8%

34%

Mar 1 55%

10%

33%

Mar 8 51%

9%

37%

Mar 16 53%

8%

35%

Mar 31 60%

8%
31%

June 13 59%

5% 5%

32%

Aug 23 53%
10

7%

32%

Feb 23 52%

7%

5% 5%

37%
20

30

40

50

60

5% 5%
70

80

90

100

A8

DECIDED AND LEANING

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

SK Party

51%

50%

57%

56%

56%

51%

NDP

34%

41%

37%

37%

33%

41%

Liberal

8%

4%

3%

4%

7%

4%

Green

6%

5%

3%

3%

5%

4%

236

319

347

496

670

728

PC

Sample

Saskatchewan

Regina

Saskatoon

Rest of SK

SK Party

53%

39%

47%

60%

NDP

37%

52%

41%

31%

Liberal

5%

3%

7%

5%

Green

5%

5%

6%

4%

1,398

552

415

431

Sample

A6

If a provincial election were held today which

party would you support?

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5

SK Party

NDP

Liberal

Green

UD

Aug 23

June 13

Mar 31

Mar 15

Mar 8

Mar 1

Feb 23

Feb 11

Jan 4

Oct 6

A6

If a provincial election were held today which

party would you support?

Oct 6 46%

26%

Jan 4 51%

24%

Feb 11 49%

12%

5% 12%

28%

June 13 52%

12%

27%

Aug 23 46%
10

14%

6%

31%

Mar 31 54%

13%

7%

33%

Mar 15 49%

14%

8%

28%

Mar 8 47%

14%

6%

30%

Mar 1 49%

19%

6%

28%

Feb 23 46%

6%

14%

30%
20

30

40

50

17%
60

70

80

90

100

A6

If a provincial election were held today which

party would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

SK Party

43%

44%

51%

47%

48%

44%

NDP

26%

35%

30%

29%

27%

33%

Liberal

4%

3%

2%

4%

5%

2%

Green

5%

5%

2%

2%

4%

3%

Undecided

23%

13%

15%

17%

16%

18%

Sample

312

368

414

596

803

887

PC

Saskatchewan

Regina

Saskatoon

Rest of SK

SK Party

46%

32%

39%

54%

NDP

30%

39%

33%

26%

Liberal

3%

2%

4%

3%

Green

4%

4%

4%

3%

Undecided

17%

23%

20%

13%

Sample

1690

694

492

504

A9

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brad

Wall is handling his job as Premier?

7% 7%

90

7% 7%

100

23%

70

21%

80

60

26%

40

25%

50

30
20

37%

40%

10

June 13

Aug 23

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

Strongly Disapprove

Somewhat Disapprove

Not Sure

A10

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brad

Wall is handling his job as Premier?

SK 37%

26%

23%

7% 7%

Saskatoon 37%

26%

23%

7% 7%

Regina

35%

18%

RoS

43%

26%

Male

43%

20%

Female

31%

65+ 39%
30

40

5% 7%

28%

6% 5%

26%

21%
50

9%

19%
60

70

6%
8%

19%

23%

20

10%

25%

27%

50-64 38%

10%
6%

21%

31%

35-49 34%

10

14%
22%

32%

18-34 38%

24%

9%
80

5%

12%
90

100

A11

In your opinion, is SK headed in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

17%

90

14%

100

80

50

31%

60

32%

70

40
30
20

52%

54%

10

June 13

Aug 23

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Not Sure

A12

In your opinion, is SK headed in the right

direction or the wrong direction?

SK 52%

31%

Saskatoon 42%

37%

21%

Regina

38%

RoS

60%

Male

52%

30%

Female

52%

32%

46%

16%
24%

18-34 55%

18%
16%
17%

32%

50-64 50%

19%

33%

65+ 54%
10

16%

28%

35-49 49%

17%

17%

32%
20

30

40

50

60

15%
70

80

90

100

A13

Have you ever been a passenger in a car when

the driver was under the inuence of alcohol?

11%

15%

5%

69%

Yes

No

Not Sure

Won't Say

A14

Have you ever been a passenger in a car when

the driver was under the inuence of alcohol?

SK 15%
Saskatoon 16%
Regina

14%

RoS

15%

Male

13%

Female

17%

18-34 13%
35-49 15%
50-64 17%
65+ 16%
0

10

69%

5% 11%

65%

7% 12%

70%

6% 10%

70%

11%

70%

12%

68%

6% 10%

70%

6% 11%

69%

5% 12%

68%

5% 11%

70%
20

9%
30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A15

Have you ever driven a vehicle under the

inuence of alcohol?

4%
2%

8%

86%

Yes

No

Not Sure

Won't Say

A16

Have you ever driven a vehicle under the

inuence of alcohol?

SK 8%

86%

Saskatoon 10%
Regina
RoS

8%

2% 4%

83%

5%

87%

7% 87%

Male

8%

86%

Female

8%

87%

5%

18-34 7% 85%
35-49 8%

87%

50-64 8%

86%

65+ 9%
0

6%

86%
10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A171

Recently MLA Don McMorris stepped down from cabinet

after being charged with impaired driving. In your
opinion, should he seek re-election after the charges
have been dealt with by the courts?

10%
22%

68%

Yes

No

Not Sure

A18

Recently MLA Don McMorris stepped down from cabinet

after being charged with impaired driving. In your
opinion, should he seek re-election after the charges
have been dealt with by the courts?

SK 10%

68%

Saskatoon 10%

65%

Regina

8%

25%

71%

21%

RoS

11%

69%

Male

11%

66%

Female

10%

18-34 8%

21%
23%

70%

20%

74%

35-49 11%
50-64 13%
65+ 9%
0

22%

18%

65%

24%

63%

24%

71%
10

20

20%
30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A19

Do you agree or disagree with the following

statement: Driving under the inuence is OK if you
are travelling a short distance on quiet roads

4%
19%

77%

Yes

No

Not Sure

A20

Do you agree or disagree with the following

statement: Driving under the inuence is OK if you
are travelling a short distance on quiet roads

SK 19%
Saskatoon 14%
Regina

15%

RoS

22%

Male

21%

Female

17%

77%
81%

5%

80%

5%
75%
75%

79%

18-34 24%

74%

35-49 18%

78%

50-64 18%

78%

65+ 13%
0

10

5%

80%
20

6%
30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

A21

Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed

Energy East pipeline?

14%

19%

67%

Approve

Disapprove

Not Sure

A24

Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed

Energy East pipeline?

SK 67%

19%

Saskatoon 64%

14%

22%

14%

Regina

59%

26%

15%

RoS

71%

16%

Male

71%

15%

Female

63%

23%

18-34 64%

10

14%

17%

65+ 71%
0

16%

21%

50-64 70%

14%
14%

20%

35-49 65%

13%

13%

18%
20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11%
90

100

A23

Ddo you approve or disapprove of the

provincial governments handling of the North
Saskatchewan River Oil Spill?

22%

47%

31%

Approve

Disapprove

Not Sure

A24

Ddo you approve or disapprove of the

provincial governments handling of the North
Saskatchewan River Oil Spill?

SK 47%

31%

Saskatoon 46%

22%

38%

Regina 40%

16%

43%

18%

RoS

50%

25%

Male

50%

29%

Female

44%

23%

39%

35-49 44%

17%

32%

50-64 49%

24%

26%

65+ 51%
10

21%

33%

18-34 45%

26%

25%

25%
20

30

40

50

60

24%
70

80

90

100

A25

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Trent Wotherspoon
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Shawn Setyo
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall
NDP led by Trent Wotherspoon
Liberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Green Party led by Shawn Setyo
Undecided
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brad Wall is handling his job as Premier?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Have you ever been a passenger in a car when the driver was under the inuence of alcohol?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Prefer not to say
Have you ever driven a vehicle under the inuence of alcohol?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Prefer not to say
Recently MLA Don McMorris stepped down from cabinet after being charged with impaired driving. In
your opinion, should he seek re-election after the charges have been dealt with by the courts?
Yes
No
Not Sure

A26

SCRIPT

And do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Driving under the inuence is OK if you are
travelling a short distance on quiet roads
Agree
Disagree
Not sure
And do you approve or disapprove of the proposed Energy East pipeline?
Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the provincial governments handling of the North Saskatchewan
River Oil Spill?
Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

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general election, top results within MoE.

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election, top results within MoE.

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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