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TO

:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:

GENE ULM—PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

SUBJECT:

KEY FINDINGS—CALIFORNIA CD 10

DATE:

AUGUST 31, 2016

Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a survey of 400 likely voters in California’s 10th
Congressional District on behalf of Jeff Denham for Congress and the National Republican Congressional
Committee. The survey was conducted August 28-30, 2016 and has a margin of error of ±4.90%. All
interviews were conducted via live-telephone—30% were cell-phone only respondents and 22% were
respondents of Hispanic ethnicity. The memorandum below reviews the key findings of the poll.
1. Jeff Denham currently holds a significant lead on the ballot.

Denham tops Michael Eggman 57%-35% among likely voters, with 8% undecided.

2. Voters in the district like the Congressman and approve of the job that he is doing.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of Jeff Denham, with
only 23% unfavorable. His name ID is almost universal (88% heard of).
Fully 58% of voters approve of the job Jeff Denham is doing as Congressman.

3. Meanwhile, voters are less familiar and less favorable of challenger Michael Eggman.

Only 58% of voters have heard of Eggman and his favorability is weaker (23% favorable12% unfavorable).

4. Trump and Clinton are deadlocked in the Presidential race.

The Presidential ballot is tied (40% Trump-40% Clinton). Eleven percent of likely voters
choose a third party candidate and seven percent are undecided.
Trump (39% fav-60% unfav) and Clinton (38%-61%) have near identical images.

Bottom Line: The national pressure on Donald Trump has minimal effect—Denham outperforms
Trump on the ballot and favorability measures—and he starts with a strong advantage in the
Congressional race.