PROPOSAL THESIS

ANALYSIS OF SPASIAL PATTERN IN EXTREME RAINFALL

AT 12.00-00.00 WIB USING POLYGON THIESSEN METHOD
IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SLOPE OF MOUNT MERAPI

Arranged by:
LISTYO RINI EKANINGTYAS
11/319341/TK/38470

MASTER PROGRAMME OF NATURAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT

GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY
YOGYAKARTA
2015

ABSTRACT

BAB I
INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of Problems

The climate of Indonesia is generally characterized by two seasons: dry
(April to September) and wet (October to March). Indonesia is a tropical country
that through the equator line. This condition causes Indonesia has a fairly high
rainfall. Rainfall is an important component of the hydrological analysis. In
hydrological analysis in DAS, rainfall is the data input and output is flow. Debris
Flow is part of soil, stone and gravel making up a hillside and river bed is
intermingled with water from long-continuing or localized rainfall, becomes
slushy like porridge and is carried downstream at a dash. This flow often carried
large stones and tree trunks with high speed and high destructive force so that
threatens human life in the downstream. Mount Merapi, Semeru and Kelud are
the most active volcanoes in Java which have been responsible for thousands of
deaths in the region. Mount Merapi has been named as one of the Decade
Vulcanoes because it has a period of active vulcanoes, since 1995 it has 4 years
period. Mount Merapi is a large Quatenary stratovolcano (2.930 m.a.s.l) located
on the border between Central Java and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In this area has a
pattern of debris flow events in specific time period. This situation certainly
thousands of people threatens about it. Therefore, need research that can
minimize vulnerability of natural hazards (cold lava flood) in the area of mount
Merapi.
Characteristic of rainfall in each area is different, many factors affect
example topographic factors. Characteristic of rainfall in mountain and
characteristic in hill is different. This occurs because differences in air pressure
and temperature were significant between the low and high altitudes. For
determine the characteristic of rainfall pattern can be analyzed from distribution
of the rainfall data available. Rainfall distribution analysis is determine by
describing the rainfall pattern events that has occurred in the previous year.

Spasial Rainfall characteristics is an important to understanding in area

Mount Merapi very useful for mitigation of cold lava.

1.2 Purpose of Research

The research conducted in the aims of:
1. Determining characteristics rainfall in southern and western slope area
Mount Merapi during 12.00 - 00.00 WIB.
2. Designing Spasial Rainfall Pattern of Extreme Daily Rainfall Mapping for
mitigation in vulnerability area of cold lava flood.

1.3 Advantages of research

Result of the research can use as data input for hydrological analysis and
criteria of movement of extreme daily rainfall. Beside that, mapping of
characteristic spasial of rainfall pattern as data input for information in mitigation
clod lava flood in around Mount Merapi.

1.4 Limitation of Research

The research limits of these scopes:
1. Location of research in southern and western slope area Mount Merapi,
Kabupaten Magelang, Kabupaten Sleman and Kabupaten Klaten.
2. Research use the rainfall data from rainfall recorder post Argomulyo,
Babadan, Batur, Deles, Girikerto, Gunung Maron, Ngandong, Ngepos,
Pakem, Plosokerep, Pucanganom, Randugunting, Sorasan dan Sukorini
3.
4.
5.
6.

from 1991-2012.
Determining region of rainfall use Poligon Thiessen method.
Grouping rainfall data of short duration use Non-Isolated Event method.
Processing of data use 4 duration are 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours and 4 hours.
Designing map of spasial characteristics rainfall just for large period is
Januari.

BAB II
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Definition of Rainfall
The quantity of water, usually expressed in millimeters, that is precipitated
in liquid form in a specified area and time interval. Rainfall is an event of the
water fall from atmosphere and reach the earths surface. Rain occurs as a result
of cold air mass and reaching temperatures below the dew point and the core are
hygroscopic which can initiate the formation of water molecules. Rain will only
happen if the rain water molecules have reached the size of more than 1 mm. The
amount of rainfall that falls on the earths surface can be measured using a
rainfall recorder.
Based on the spatial variability of meteorological parameters can be divided
into three types of rain that are distinguished by the way air rising to the top.
Three types are convection rain, sinklonik rain and orographic rain (Bambang
Triatmodjo, 2009).
1. Convection Rain
Convection occurs when the Earth's surface, mainly in the equatorial region,
within a conditionally unstable, or moist atmosphere, becomes heated more than
its surroundings, leading to significant evaporation. Convective rain, or showery
precipitation, occurs from convective clouds, e.g., cumulonimbus or cumulus
congestus. It falls as showers with rapidly changing intensity. Convective
precipitation falls over a certain area for a relatively short time, as convective
clouds have limited horizontal extent. Most precipitation in the tropics appears to
be convective; however, it has been suggested that Sinklonik precipitation
thunderstorms. Graupel andhail indicate convection. In mid-latitudes, convective
precipitation is associated with cold fronts (often behind the front), squall lines,
and warm fronts in very moist air.

2. Sinklonik Rain
Sinklonik

rainfall

is

also

caused

by

frontal

systems

surrounding extratropical cyclones or lows, which form when warm and often
tropical

air

meets

cooler

air.

Sinklonik

precipitation

falls

out

of nimbostratus clouds. When masses of air with different density (moisture and
temperature characteristics) meet, warmer air overrides colder air. The warmer air
is forced to rise and if conditions are right becomes saturated, causing
precipitation. In turn, precipitation can enhance the temperature and moisture
contrast along a frontal boundary. Fronts cause sudden changes in general
temperature, and in the humidity and pressure in the air. Warm fronts occur where
the warm air scours out a previously lodged cold air mass. The warm air
'overrides' the cooler air and moves upward. Warm fronts are followed by
extended periods of light rain and drizzle, because, after the warm air rises above
the cooler air (which sinks to the ground), it gradually cools due to the air's
expansion while being lifted, which forms clouds and leads to precipitation. Cold
fronts occur when a mass of cooler air dislodges a mass of warm air. This type of
transition is sharper, since cold air is more dense than warm air. The rain duration
is less, and generally more intense, than that which occurs ahead of warm fronts.
A wide variety of weather can be found along an occluded front, with
thunderstorms possible, but usually their passage is associated with a drying of
the air mass.

3. Orographic rain
Orographic or relief rainfall is caused when masses of air pushed
by wind are forced up the side of elevated land formations, such as
large mountains. The lift of the air up the side of the mountain results
in adiabatic cooling, and ultimately condensation and precipitation. In
mountainous parts of the world subjected to relatively consistent winds (for
example, the trade winds), a more moist climate usually prevails on the windward
side of a mountain than on the leeward (downwind) side. Moisture is removed by
orographic lift, leaving drier air (see Foehn) on the descending (generally
warming), leeward side where a rain shadow is observed.

2.2 Intensity of Rainfall

The intensity of rainfall is a measured of the amount of rain that falls over
time. The intensity of rain is measured in the height of the water layer covering
the ground in a period of time. It means that if the rain stays where it falls, it
would form layer of a certain height. Rain covers a wide area, rarely with a high
intensity, but can take place with a long duration. Combination of high rainfall

intensity with long duration are rare, but in event means a large volume of water
poured out of the sky (Suroso,2006).
Rainfall characteristics that need to be reviewed in the analysis and
hydrological planning include:
1. Depth of rainfall (d)

: the amount or depth of rainfall occurred during

the duration of the rain and expressed in the thickness of water on a flat
surface (mm).
2. Duration (t)
: time of rainfall in unit time (minute/hour).
3. Intensity of Rainfall (I) : depth of rainfall per unit time (mm/hour).
4. Frequency
: number of rain events that occur and usually
expressed with return period (2,5,10,20,50,100 years).
5. Area (A)
: geographical area of distribution of rain (km).
2.3 Classification of Rainfall
Based on its intensity, rainfall can be classified into four classes
(Sosrodarsono and Takeda, 1985). The classification are:
1. Lower rain
: 0,1-5,0 mm/hour or 5-20 mm/day
2. Moderate rain : 5,0-10,0 mm/hour or 20-50 mm/day
3. Dense rain
: 10,0-20,0 mm/hour or 50-100 mm/day
4. Very dense rain : > 20 mm/hour or >100 mm/day
2.4 Catchment Rainfall
Rainfall recording stations only provide rainfall depth at the point where the
station is located. In hydrological analysis, rainfall used is the amount of the
catchment rainfall. Because the catchment rainfall can be considered to represent
the whole of rain. Catchment rainfall can determine by Aritmatic method,
Polygon Thiessen method and Isohyet method (Bambang Triadmojo,2009).
2.5 Debris flow
Debris flow is a moving mass of loose mud, sand, soil, gravel, rock, water
and air that travels down a slope under the influence of gravity. To be considered
of flow and at least 50% of the material must be sand size particles or larger.
Some debris flows are very fast these are the ones that attract attention. In areas
of very steep slopes they can reach speeds of over 100 miles per hour (160
km/hour). However, many debris flow are very slow, creeping down slopes by
slow internal movement at speeds of just one or two feet per year.

BAB III
BASIC THEORY

BAB IV
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
4.1.

Site of Research
Research located in around Mount Merapi. Slope of Mt. Merapi has many
rainfall recorder post. Rainfall recorder post in this research are Argomulyo,
Babadan, Batur, Deles, Girikerto, Gunung Maron, Ngandong, Ngepos, Pakem,
Plosokerep, Pucanganom, Randugunting, Sorasan and Sukorini.

4.2.

Flowchart of Research

Generally stage of research can show by this flowchart.

Start
Study Literature
Collecting data daily rainfall

Grouping data daily rainfall 12.00-00.00 WIB and determine the data rainfall maximum

Input:
Data Rainfall Maximum

The Spasial Rainfall Pattern of Extreme Daily Rainfall Mapping with software Arc GIS
Picture 4.1. Flowchart of Research Methodology

Analysis of Spasial Extreme Daily Rainfall for Early Warning System Lahar in Mt. Merapi inform

Conclusion
Finish