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Astronomers say a Neptunesized planet lurks beyond Pluto

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Astronomers say a Neptunesized planet lurks beyond Pluto

By Eric Hand Jan. 20, 2016 , 9:45 AM
Thesolarsystemappearstohaveanewninthplanet.Today,twoscientistsannounced
evidencethatabodynearlythesizeofNeptunebutasyetunseenorbitsthesunevery
15,000years.Duringthesolarsystemsinfancy4.5billionyearsago,theysay,thegiant
planetwasknockedoutoftheplanetformingregionnearthesun.Sloweddownbygas,
theplanetsettledintoadistantellipticalorbit,whereitstilllurkstoday.
TheclaimisthestrongestyetinthecenturieslongsearchforaPlanetXbeyond
Neptune.Thequesthasbeenplaguedbyfarfetchedclaimsandevenoutrightquackery.
Butthenewevidencecomesfromapairofrespectedplanetaryscientists,Konstantin
BatyginandMikeBrownoftheCaliforniaInstituteofTechnology(Caltech)inPasadena,
whopreparedfortheinevitableskepticismwithdetailedanalysesoftheorbitsofother
distantobjectsandmonthsofcomputersimulations.Ifyousay,Wehaveevidencefor
PlanetX,almostanyastronomerwillsay,Thisagain?Theseguysareclearlycrazy.I
would,too,Brownsays.Whyisthisdifferent?Thisisdifferentbecausethistimewere
right.

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MikeBrown(left)andKonstantinBatygin.
LANCEHAYASHIDA/CALTECH

Outsidescientistssaytheircalculationsstackupandexpressamixtureofcautionand
excitementabouttheresult.Icouldnotimagineabiggerdealifandofcoursethatsa
boldfaceififitturnsouttoberight,saysGregoryLaughlin,aplanetaryscientistatthe
UniversityofCalifornia(UC),SantaCruz.Whatsthrillingaboutitis[theplanet]is
detectable.
BatyginandBrowninferreditspresencefromthepeculiarclusteringofsixpreviously
knownobjectsthatorbitbeyondNeptune.Theysaytheresonlya0.007%chance,or
aboutonein15,000,thattheclusteringcouldbeacoincidence.Instead,theysay,a
planetwiththemassof10Earthshasshepherdedthesixobjectsintotheirstrange
ellipticalorbits,tiltedoutoftheplaneofthesolarsystem.
Theorbitoftheinferredplanetissimilarlytilted,aswellasstretchedtodistancesthatwill
explodepreviousconceptionsofthesolarsystem.Itsclosestapproachtothesunis
seventimesfartherthanNeptune,or200astronomicalunits(AUs).(AnAUisthe
distancebetweenEarthandthesun,about150millionkilometers.)AndPlanetXcould
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roamasfaras600to1200AU,wellbeyondtheKuiperbelt,theregionofsmallicyworlds
thatbeginsatNeptunesedgeabout30AU.
IfPlanetXisoutthere,BrownandBatyginsay,astronomersoughttofindmoreobjectsin
telltaleorbits,shapedbythepullofthehiddengiant.ButBrownknowsthatnoonewill
reallybelieveinthediscoveryuntilPlanetXitselfappearswithinatelescopeviewfinder.
Untiltheresadirectdetection,itsahypothesisevenapotentiallyverygood
hypothesis,hesays.TheteamhastimeontheonelargetelescopeinHawaiithatis
suitedforthesearch,andtheyhopeotherastronomerswilljoininthehunt.

KillingPlutowasfun,butthisisheadandshouldersabove
everythingelse.

MikeBrown,Caltech

BatyginandBrownpublishedtheresulttodayinTheAstronomicalJournal.Alessandro
Morbidelli,aplanetarydynamicistattheNiceObservatoryinFrance,performedthepeer
reviewforthepaper.Inastatement,hesaysBatyginandBrownmadeaverysolid
argumentandthatheisquiteconvincedbytheexistenceofadistantplanet.
ChampioninganewninthplanetisanironicroleforBrown;heisbetterknownasaplanet
slayer.His2005discoveryofEris,aremoteicyworldnearlythesamesizeasPluto,
revealedthatwhatwasseenastheoutermostplanetwasjustoneofmanyworldsinthe
Kuiperbelt.AstronomerspromptlyreclassifiedPlutoasadwarfplanetasagaBrown
recountedinhisbookHowIKilledPluto.
Now,hehasjoinedthecenturiesoldsearchfornewplanets.Hismethodinferringthe
existenceofPlanetXfromitsghostlygravitationaleffectshasarespectabletrack
record.In1846,forexample,theFrenchmathematicianUrbainLeVerrierpredictedthe
existenceofagiantplanetfromirregularitiesintheorbitofUranus.Astronomersatthe
BerlinObservatoryfoundthenewplanet,Neptune,whereitwassupposedtobe,sparking
amediasensation.
RemaininghiccupsinUranussorbitledscientiststothinkthattheremightyetbeone
moreplanet,andin1906PercivalLowell,awealthytycoon,beganthesearchforwhathe
calledPlanetXathisnewobservatoryinFlagstaff,Arizona.In1930,Plutoturnedup
butitwasfartoosmalltotugmeaningfullyonUranus.Morethanhalfacenturylater,new
calculationsbasedonmeasurementsbytheVoyagerspacecraftrevealedthattheorbits
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ofUranusandNeptunewerejustfineontheirown:NoPlanetXwasneeded.
YettheallureofPlanetXpersisted.Inthe1980s,forexample,researchersproposedthat
anunseenbrowndwarfstarcouldcauseperiodicextinctionsonEarthbytriggering
fusilladesofcomets.Inthe1990s,scientistsinvokedaJupitersizedplanetatthesolar
systemsedgetoexplaintheoriginofcertainoddballcomets.Justlastmonth,
researchersclaimedtohavedetectedthefaintmicrowaveglowofanoutsizedrocky
planetsome300AUaway,usinganarrayoftelescopedishesinChilecalledtheAtacama
LargeMillimeterArray(ALMA).(Brownwasoneofmanyskeptics,notingthatALMAs
narrowfieldofviewmadethechancesoffindingsuchanobjectvanishinglyslim.)
Browngothisfirstinklingofhiscurrentquarryin2003,whenheledateamthatfound
Sedna,anobjectabitsmallerthanbothErisandPluto.Sednasodd,farflungorbitmade
itthemostdistantknownobjectinthesolarsystematthetime.Itsperihelion,orclosest
pointtothesun,layat76AU,beyondtheKuiperbeltandfaroutsidetheinfluenceof
Neptunesgravity.Theimplicationwasclear:Somethingmassive,wellbeyondNeptune,
musthavepulledSednaintoitsdistantorbit.

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(DATA)JPL;BATYGINANDBROWN/CALTECH;(DIAGRAM)A.CUADRA/SCIENCE

Thatsomethingdidnthavetobeaplanet.Sednasgravitationalnudgecouldhavecome
fromapassingstar,orfromoneofthemanyotherstellarnurseriesthatsurroundedthe
nascentsunatthetimeofthesolarsystemsformation.
Sincethen,ahandfulofothericyobjectshaveturnedupinsimilarorbits.Bycombining
Sednawithfiveotherweirdos,Brownsayshehasruledoutstarsastheunseeninfluence:
Onlyaplanetcouldexplainsuchstrangeorbits.OfhisthreemajordiscoveriesEris,
Sedna,andnow,potentially,PlanetXBrownsaysthelastisthemostsensational.
KillingPlutowasfun.FindingSednawasscientificallyinteresting,hesays.Butthis
one,thisisheadandshouldersaboveeverythingelse.
BrownandBatyginwerenearlybeatentothepunch.Foryears,Sednawasalonecluetoa
perturbationfrombeyondNeptune.Then,in2014,ScottSheppardandChadTrujillo(a
formergraduatestudentofBrowns)publishedapaperdescribingthediscoveryof
VP113,anotherobjectthatnevercomesclosetothesun.Sheppard,oftheCarnegie
InstitutionforScienceinWashington,D.C.,andTrujillo,oftheGeminiObservatoryin
Hawaii,werewellawareoftheimplications.Theybegantoexaminetheorbitsofthetwo
objectsalongwith10otheroddballs.Theynoticedthat,atperihelion,allcameverynear
theplaneofsolarsysteminwhichEarthorbits,calledtheecliptic.Inapaper,Sheppard
andTrujillopointedoutthepeculiarclumpingandraisedthepossibilitythatadistant
largeplanethadherdedtheobjectsneartheecliptic.Buttheydidntpresstheresultany
further.
Laterthatyear,atCaltech,BatyginandBrownbegandiscussingtheresults.Plottingthe
orbitsofthedistantobjects,Batyginsays,theyrealizedthatthepatternthatSheppard
andTrujillohadnoticedwasonlyhalfofthestory.Notonlyweretheobjectsnearthe
eclipticatperihelia,buttheirperiheliawerephysicallyclusteredinspace(seediagram,
above).
Forthenextyear,theduosecretlydiscussedthepatternandwhatitmeant.Itwasan
easyrelationship,andtheirskillscomplementedeachother.Batygin,a29yearoldwhiz
kidcomputermodeler,wenttocollegeatUCSantaCruzforthebeachandthechanceto
playinarockband.Buthemadehismarktherebymodelingthefateofthesolarsystem
overbillionsofyears,showingthat,inrarecases,itwasunstable:Mercurymayplunge
intothesunorcollidewithVenus.Itwasanamazingaccomplishmentforan
undergraduate,saysLaughlin,whoworkedwithhimatthetime.
Brown,50,istheobservationalastronomer,withaflairfordramaticdiscoveriesandthe
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confidencetomatch.Hewearsshortsandsandalstowork,putshisfeetuponhisdesk,
andhasabreezinessthatmasksintensityandambition.Hehasaprogramallsettosift
forPlanetXindatafromamajortelescopethemomenttheybecomepubliclyavailable
laterthisyear.
Theirofficesareafewdoorsdownfromeachother.Mycouchisnicer,sowetendtotalk
moreinmyoffice,Batyginsays.WetendtolookmoreatdatainMikes.Theyeven
becameexercisebuddies,anddiscussedtheirideaswhilewaitingtogetinthewaterata
LosAngeles,California,triathloninthespringof2015.
First,theywinnowedthedozenobjectsstudiedbySheppardandTrujillotothesixmost
distantdiscoveredbysixdifferentsurveysonsixdifferenttelescopes.Thatmadeitless
likelythattheclumpingmightbeduetoanobservationbiassuchaspointingatelescope
ataparticularpartofthesky.
BatyginbeganseedinghissolarsystemmodelswithPlanetXsofvarioussizesand
orbits,toseewhichversionbestexplainedtheobjectspaths.Someofthecomputerruns
tookmonths.AfavoredsizeforPlanetXemergedbetweenfiveand15Earthmasses
aswellasapreferredorbit:antialignedinspacefromthesixsmallobjects,sothatits
perihelionisinthesamedirectionasthesixobjectsaphelion,orfarthestpointfromthe
sun.TheorbitsofthesixcrossthatofPlanetX,butnotwhenthebigbullyisnearbyand
coulddisruptthem.Thefinalepiphanycame2monthsago,whenBatyginssimulations
showedthatPlanetXshouldalsosculpttheorbitsofobjectsthatswoopintothesolar
systemfromaboveandbelow,nearlyorthogonaltotheecliptic.Itsparkedthis
memory,Brownsays.Ihadseentheseobjectsbefore.Itturnsoutthat,since2002,
fiveofthesehighlyinclinedKuiperbeltobjectshavebeendiscovered,andtheirorigins
arelargelyunexplained.Notonlyaretheythere,buttheyareinexactlytheplaceswe
predicted,Brownsays.ThatiswhenIrealizedthatthisisnotjustaninterestingand
goodideathisisactuallyreal.
Sheppard,whowithTrujillohadalsosuspectedanunseenplanet,saysBatyginand
Browntookourresulttothenextlevel.Theygotdeepintothedynamics,something
thatChadandIarentreallygoodwith.ThatswhyIthinkthisisexciting.
Others,likeplanetaryscientistDaveJewitt,whodiscoveredtheKuiperbelt,aremore
cautious.The0.007%chancethattheclusteringofthesixobjectsiscoincidentalgives
theplanetclaimastatisticalsignificanceof3.8sigmabeyondthe3sigmathreshold
typicallyrequiredtobetakenseriously,butshortofthe5sigmathatissometimesused
infieldslikeparticlephysics.ThatworriesJewitt,whohasseenplentyof3sigmaresults
disappearbefore.ByreducingthedozenobjectsexaminedbySheppardandTrujillotosix
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fortheiranalysis,BatyginandBrownweakenedtheirclaim,hesays.Iworrythatthe
findingofasinglenewobjectthatisnotinthegroupwoulddestroythewholeedifice,
saysJewitt,whoisatUCLosAngeles.Itsagameofstickswithonlysixsticks.

IMAGES:WIKIMEDIACOMMONS;NASA/JPLCALTECH;A.CUADRA/SCIENCE;NASA/JHUAPL/SWRI;(DIAGRAM)A.CUADRA/SCIENCE

Atfirstblush,anotherpotentialproblemcomesfromNASAsWidefieldInfraredSurvey
Explorer(WISE),asatellitethatcompletedanallskysurveylookingfortheheatofbrown
dwarfsorgiantplanets.ItruledouttheexistenceofaSaturnorlargerplanetasfarout
as10,000AU,accordingtoa2013studybyKevinLuhman,anastronomerat
PennsylvaniaStateUniversity,UniversityPark.ButLuhmannotesthatifPlanetXis
Neptunesizedorsmaller,asBatyginandBrownsay,WISEwouldhavemissedit.Hesays
thereisaslimchanceofdetectioninanotherWISEdatasetatlongerwavelengths
sensitivetocoolerradiationwhichwascollectedfor20%ofthesky.Luhmanisnow
analyzingthosedata.
EvenifBatyginandBrowncanconvinceotherastronomersthatPlanetXexists,theyface
anotherchallenge:explaininghowitendedupsofarfromthesun.Atsuchdistances,the
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protoplanetarydiskofdustandgaswaslikelytohavebeentoothintofuelplanetgrowth.
AndevenifPlanetXdidgetafootholdasaplanetesimal,itwouldhavemovedtooslowly
initsvast,lazyorbittohooverupenoughmaterialtobecomeagiant.
Instead,BatyginandBrownproposethatPlanetXformedmuchclosertothesun,
alongsideJupiter,Saturn,Uranus,andNeptune.Computermodelshaveshownthatthe
earlysolarsystemwasatumultuousbilliardstable,withdozensorevenhundredsof
planetarybuildingblocksthesizeofEarthbouncingaround.Anotherembryonicgiant
planetcouldeasilyhaveformedthere,onlytobebootedoutwardbyagravitationalkick
fromanothergasgiant.
ItshardertoexplainwhyPlanetXdidnteitherloopbackaroundtowhereitstartedor
leavethesolarsystementirely.ButBatyginsaysthatresidualgasintheprotoplanetary
diskmighthaveexertedenoughdragtoslowtheplanetjustenoughforittosettleintoa
distantorbitandremaininthesolarsystem.Thatcouldhavehappenediftheejection
tookplacewhenthesolarsystemwasbetween3millionand10millionyearsold,hesays,
beforeallthegasinthediskwaslostintospace.
HalLevison,aplanetarydynamicistattheSouthwestResearchInstituteinBoulder,
Colorado,agreesthatsomethinghastobecreatingtheorbitalalignmentBatyginand
Brownhavedetected.ButhesaystheoriginstorytheyhavedevelopedforPlanetXand
theirspecialpleadingforagasslowedejectionadduptoalowprobabilityevent.Other
researchersaremorepositive.Theproposedscenarioisplausible,Laughlinsays.
Usuallythingslikethisarewrong,butImreallyexcitedaboutthisone,hesays.Its
betterthanacoinflip.
AllthismeansthatPlanetXwillremaininlimbountilitisactuallyfound.
Astronomershavesomegoodideasaboutwheretolook,butspottingthenewplanet
wontbeeasy.Becauseobjectsinhighlyellipticalorbitsmovefastestwhentheyareclose
tothesun,PlanetXspendsverylittletimeat200AU.Andifitwerethererightnow,
Brownsays,itwouldbesobrightthatastronomersprobablywouldhavealreadyspotted
it.
Instead,PlanetXislikelytospendmostofitstimenearaphelion,slowlytrottingalongat
distancesbetween600and1200AU.Mosttelescopescapableofseeingadimobjectat
suchdistances,suchastheHubbleSpaceTelescopeorthe10meterKecktelescopesin
Hawaii,haveextremelytinyfieldsofview.Itwouldbelikelookingforaneedleina
haystackbypeeringthroughadrinkingstraw.

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Onetelescopecanhelp:Subaru,an8metertelescopeinHawaiithatisownedbyJapan.
Ithasenoughlightgatheringareatodetectsuchafaintobject,coupledwithahugefield
ofview75timeslargerthanthatofaKecktelescope.Thatallowsastronomerstoscan
largeswathsoftheskyeachnight.BatyginandBrownareusingSubarutolookforPlanet
Xandtheyarecoordinatingtheireffortswiththeirerstwhilecompetitors,Sheppardand
Trujillo,whohavealsojoinedthehuntwithSubaru.Brownsaysitwilltakeabout5years
forthetwoteamstosearchmostoftheareawherePlanetXcouldbelurking.

The8meterSubaruTelescopeatopMaunaKeainHawaiihasalargefieldofviewenablingittosearchefficientlyfor
PlanetX.
SubaruTelescope,NAOJ

Ifthesearchpansout,whatshouldthenewmemberofthesunsfamilybecalled?Brown
saysitstooearlytoworryaboutthatandscrupulouslyavoidsofferingupsuggestions.
Fornow,heandBatyginarecallingitPlanetNine(and,forthepastyear,informally,
PlanetPhattie1990sslangforcool).BrownnotesthatneitherUranusnorNeptune
thetwoplanetsdiscoveredinmoderntimesendedupbeingnamedbytheirdiscoverers,
andhethinksthatthatsprobablyagoodthing.Itsbiggerthananyoneperson,hesays:
ItskindoflikefindinganewcontinentonEarth.
Heissure,however,thatPlanetXunlikePlutodeservestobecalledaplanet.
SomethingthesizeofNeptuneinthesolarsystem?Dontevenask.Noonewouldargue
thisone,notevenme.
Postedin:Space,PlanetsTopic
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Postedin:Space,PlanetsTopic
DOI:10.1126/science.aae0237

Eric Hand
EricHandisastaffwriterwhocoversEarthandplanetaryscience.

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