Economic Factors

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Economic Factors

Canada
Oil Price
Interest Rates
Currency

United States
Presidential Elections
Interest Rates
Currency
Unemployment Rate
Latest Aug 2016: 7.0%
Latest Aug 2016: 4.9%
June 2016: 6.9%
June 2016: 4.9%
March 2016: 7.2%
March 2016: 5%
December 2015: 7.0%
December 2015: 5%
September 2015: 7.0%
September 2015: 5.1%
2012 to 2015 = Average yearly
2012 to 2015 = Average yearly
7.05%
6.3%
Labor Force
Aug 2016 19.4M (+2.6% since
Aug 2016 159.5M (+2.9% since
2012)
2012)
2015 19.3M
2015 157.1M
2014 19.2M
2014 155.9M
2013 19.1M
2013 155.4M
2012 18.9M
2012 155M
Currently not in Labor Force:
Currently not in Labor Force:
10.2M
94.4M
Participation Rate: 65.5%
Participation Rate: 62.8%
Consumer Price Index (Seasonally Adjusted) Excluding Food & Energy
June 2016: 1.1%
June 2016: 0.5%
March 2016: 0.4%
March 2016: 0.7%
December 2015: 0.2%
December 2015: 0.5%
September 2015: 0.3%
September 2015: 0.5%
2012 to 2015 = Average yearly
2012 to 2015 = Average yearly
1.37%
1.85%
Core CPI* Yearly Average =
1.73% *Excludes Fruits, Nuts, Vegetables,
Mortgage Interest cost, Natural Gas, Fuel,
Gasoline, Intercity transportation, Tobacco

Composite Index Performance (TSX & S&P500)


Total Return YTD: 14.52%
Total Return YTD: 7.27%
5YR YTD Total Return: 39.74%
5YR YTD Total Return: 106.91%
5YR CAGR: 6.91%
5YR CAGR: 15.64%
Retail Sales Excluding Vehicles, Parts & Gasoline
Q2 2016: 0.7%
Q2 2016: 1.7%
Q1 2016: 2.2%
Q1 2016: 0.3%
2015: 3.7%
2015: 1.2%
2014: 3.6%
2014: 3.6%
2013: 1.4%
2013: 2.7%
2012: 1.6%
2012: 4.0%

Current State of US Economies


US government has been escalating their borrowing (Debt/GDP)
o In 2007 it was 62% and as of Aug 2016 it is 105%.

Q2 2016: -1.6%
Q1 2016: 2.5%
2015: 1.1%
2014: 2.5%
2013: 2.2%
2012: 1.7%

Target Rate: 0.50%


Prime Rate: 2.7%
3M T-Bill: 0.51%
10Y Bond: 1.15%
20Y Bond: 1.77%
30Y Bond: 1.78%

Real GDP Growth


Q2 2016: 1.1%
Q1 2016: 0.8%
2015: 2.6%
2014: 2.4%
2013: 1.7%
2012: 2.2%
Interest Rates
Fed Funds Target: 0.50%
Prime Rate: 3.5%
3M T-Bill: 0.37%
10Y Treasury: 1.66%
20Y Treasury: NA
30Y Treasury: 2.39%

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