2015 Eastern Region

Annual Airports Conference

Workshop for Asphalt

Pavement for Airports
Statistical Analysis
Carl Steinhauer
Consultant

Population
80

Frequency

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4-7 4-9 5-1 5-3 5-5 5-7 5-9 5- 6-1 6-3 6-5 6-7 6-9 611
11
Organize Date

Analysis
% Taller than 5-6
% between 5-6 and 6-6
Average Height

Limit # of samples
Statistical Analysis
Estimate average
and % within limits

Overview
P 401 Test Results
Statistical Analysis; PWL Estimate
Verify Production Process: Payment

Theory
Assumptions
2. Normal Distribution
3. Tools: Average and Standard
Deviation
4. Percent Within Limits
(PWL) Concept
1.

Assumptions

4.

Limited # of test results

Statistical Analysis
characteristics of large amount of material
Test result variability
Components:
materials
sampling-ERLPM
testing-ERLPM
Same Process
Random sampling-Lot, Sublot

5.

Normal Distribution

1.
2.

3.

Quality

Specific Procedures
Sublots, Lots, Partial Lots
2. Calculations
3. Retesting
4. Outliers
1.

Figure 1
96 tests

25

Frequency

20
15

n=100

10
5

6.55

6.45

6.35

6.25

6.15

6.05

5.95

5.85

5.75

5.65

5.55

5.45

Asphalt Content %

60

Frequency

50
40
30
20
10
0
2000

2025

2050

2075

2100

2125

2150

2175

2200

2225

2250

2275

2300

2325

2350

2375

2400

Marshall Stability

x+/- 1Sn=68%
x+/-2Sn+95%
x+/-3Sn+99.7%

PWL Concept

PWL-% of
test result
exceeding L

L
L=spec lower tolerance limit
eg. Mat density 96.3 for P401

PWL Calculation Procedures

ERLPM-page 48
Section 110-AC 150/5370-10G.
Method for Computing PWL and Examples
Section 110-02
Spec. P401 Table 5: L and U Spec. Limits
pages 37 and 38

Table 5: Marshall Acceptance Limits

*Gyratory Acceptance Limits
TEST PROPERTY

Pavements Designed for

Aircraft Gross Weights of
60,000 Lbs. or More or Tire
Pressures of 100 Psi or More

Number of Blows

Pavements Designed for

Aircraft Gross Weights Less
Than 60,000 Lbs. or Tire
Pressures Less Than 100 Psi

75

50

Specification Tolerance
Limits

Specification Tolerance
Limits

Stability, minimum,
pounds

1800

--

1000

--

Flow, 0.01-inch

16

20

*Air Voids Total Mix,

percent

*Surface Course Mat

Density, percent

96.3

[101.3]

96.3

[101.3]

*Base Course Mat Density,

percent

95.5

101.3]--

95.5

[101.3]

*Joint density, percent

93.3

--

93.*3

--

Given
x1=2
x2=4
x3=6
x4=8
X = 2+4+6+8 = 5
4

X=5
d1=2-5=-3
d2=4-5=-1
d3=6-5=1
d4=8-5=3

Sn =
Sn =

d1=9
d2=1
d3=1
d4=9

d1+d2+d3=d4
n-1
9+1+1+9 =
4-1

20
3

Sn =2.58
(calculator n-1)

Roundout Rules
ERLPM-page 48
Example-last digit to be kept-nearest 10th
4.61
4.62
4.64
4.6500
4.66
4.67
4.68
4.69

becomes 4.7

Even Digit-same
Odd Digit-increase by 1
This case becomes 4.6
If it was 4.7500 it would become 4.8

MAT Density One side density

acceptance (Manual Appendix E, page 4)
Sublot
1. = 96.0
2. = 97.0
3. = 99.0
4. = 100.0

Quality Index. See Section

x=98.0
110-02f and Section 8 page 49
Sn=1.8
of ERLPM par 8.4.1
QI=x-L
Spec Tables 5, page 37
Sn
QI=98.0-96.3 = .9444
1.8
Section 110-Table l, N=4
PL=82
ERLPM Table 4, pages 51
and 52

Mat Density -Two sided acceptance

for density
x=98.0
Sn=1.8
Qu= U-x (ERLPM page 50)
Sn
Qu=101.3-98.0 = 1.833 (101.3 found in spec Table 5)
1.8
Determine PWL using ERLPM table 4. In column
n=4 look up the PL value which corresponds to
Qu=1.833
Read PL= 100

PWL calculation for two sided

specification

PWL= PL + PU-100
(ERLPM page 50 par 8.5.2 )
PWL= 82 + 100 100 = 82

MAT Density
PL = 82%

98.0

18%
96.3

Target Density 98.0 Achieved

Sn=1.8 versus 1.3
Acceptable QC Value as
per P-401 spec. page 38

MAT Density
PL = 82%

98.0

18%
96.3

Target Density 98.0 Achieved

Sn=1.8 versus 1.3
101.3%

Acceptable QC Value

10

Effect of Quality Control

Sn = 1.3
Spec. Page 38

Sn = 1.8

82 PWL

90 PWL
96.3%

98%
x

Air Voids
App. D, page 3

Sublot
1= 2.1
2= 3.2
3=2.5
4=6.0
X= 3.4
Sn= 1.76
Spec. paragraph 401-3.2
- 0.65 page 7

11

For L and U values see P-401 Table 5

QL = x-L =
page 51, 52 of
ERLPM

3.4-2.0 = .7955
1.76

Sn

PL(table 4) = 77%
n=4
QU= U-x = 5 -3.4 = .909
Sn
1.76
PU(table 4) = 81%
n=4
PWL= PL + PU-100
PWL= 77+81-100 = 58

Air Voids
58%

23%
19%

3.4

PWL= PL + PU-100
PWL= 77 + 81-100 =58

12

Payment One side

for density
TABLE 6. PRICE ADJUSTMENT SCHEDULE 1 (page 44)
Percentage of Material Within
Specification Limits (PWL)

Lot Pay Factor

(Percent of Contract Unit Price)

96 100

106

90 95

PWL + 10

75 89

0.5 PWL + 55

55 74

1.4PWL 12

Below 55

Reject

Payment two sided for density

TABLE 6. PRICE ADJUSTMENT SCHEDULE 1 (page 45)

Percentage of Material Within Specification Limits (PWL)

Lot Pay Factor (Percent of Contract Unit Price)

93 100

103

90 93

PWL + 10

70 89

0.125PWL + 88.75

40 69

0.75PWL +45

Below 40

Reject

13

Payment
Spec-par 401-8.1 page 43
MAT Density PWL=82
Air Voids PWL= 58

Lower value

Lot Pay Factor Table 6

Air Voids- 1.4 x 58-12= 69.2%
Mat Density- 0.5 x 82+55= 96%
Use lower of 2 values- 69.2%

Joint Density
Appendix E, page 5

93.3
95.0
97.0
96.0
X= 95.3
Sn= 1.58

Table 5 pages 37 and 38

QL= (95.3-93.3) = 1.2658

1.58
PL= 93
Spec. par. 401-5.2(b)(3) if < 71% there is a 5% penalty page 32

14

Partial Lots
Section P-401-5.1c page 30

Sample Problem
Flow-Appendix D, page 5
Partial lot situation-6 sublots
8.0, 8.2, 8.5, 8.2, 8.9, 9.1
X= 8.5
Sn= 0.44
QL= x-L = 8.5-8.0 = 1.1364; PL= 88 (table 4 ERLPM n=6)
Sn
0.44
QU= U-X = 16-8.5 = 18.75; PL= 100
Sn
0.44
PWL= 88 + 100-100= 88<90
Corrective Action! 401-5.2(b)(2) page 32

15

Outliers
Spec 401-5.2d page 38
401-5.3c page 39
MAT Density and Air Voids

16

Test for Outliers

MAT Density
94.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
x= 96.2
Sn= 1.71

QL= 96.2-96.3 = -.0585

1.71
PL= <50%

ASTM E 178, par. 4

T1= (x-x1)/Sn
T1= 96.2-94 = 1.286
1.71

17

Table 1-ASTM E 178

N=4

Upper 5% significance level 1.463

Since 1.286<1.463 the 94.0 test value is

not considered an outlier and is retained!

Sample Problem-Outliers
Air Voids
2.0, 4.8, 4.9, 5.0
X=4.2
Sn=1.45

QL= 4.2-2.0 = 1.5172; PL= 100

1.45
QU= 5-4.2 = 0.5517; PU= 69
1.45
PWL= (100+69)-100=69
ASTM E 178 par. 4
Tn= (x-x1)/Sn = 4.2-2.0 = 1.517
1.45
Table 1, ASTM E 178, N=4, 5% significance
T= 1.463<1.517
therefore 2.0 is the outlier and it is discarded

18

Resampling
401-5.3 page 38
MAT Density ONLY
(Appendix E-pg 4)
Prior MAT Density- 96, 97, 99, 100
PWL 82
4 new cores 96, 96, 97, 98
AVG-all 8, 97.4
Sn= 1.51
QL= x-L = 97.4-96.3 = .7337
Sn 1.51
Table 4, N= 8
PWL= 77

Questions?

19

Thanks!

20