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Babcock University,: Ilishan - Remo, Ogun State
Babcock University,: Ilishan - Remo, Ogun State
ILISHAN - REMO,
OGUN STATE.
TERM PAPER
THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON NIGERIA AND AFRICA
BY
ORILOYE, G.
PG/15/0035
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Abstract
2
Introduction
3
Background
3
Statement
4
Objectives
4
to
the
of
the
of
the
Study
Problem
Study
Theoretical Framework
Methodology
5
Finding Analysis
LITERATURE
REVIEW
7
BREXIT IMPACT ON AFRICA
12
RECOMMENDATION
15
BIBLIOGRAPHY
18
APPENDIX
19
Abstract
This research paper gives a broad overview of Brexit and the economic and
political impact of Brexit on Nigeria and African in general. The study went on
to investigate the relationship between Britain Economy and Nigerian
Economy and also look at the relationship between African Economy and
British Economy. The research question concluded by asking if a decision
taken in Britain could affect Nigeria or Africa?
The researcher
method to gather
information from African and Nigerians. Several literatures were reviewed and
the study concluded by noting that there is strong relationship between
Nigeria and African Economies with that of Britain. The study then
recommended that Nigeria and Africa countries should reduce their
dependence on Britain by diversifying their economies. The paper was
2
framework,
literature
review,
research
methodology,
Word:
BREXIT,
Economies,
Foreign
Direct
Investment,
Immigration, Remittances
1.0
INTRODUCTION
1.1
The decision of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union has
created shockwaves at the international level, with widespread discussion
of the consequences for the rest of the world. This article presents
different analyses of the implications of Brexit for Nigeria, the largest
economy in Africa, which has significant economic ties with the UK. A
member of the Commonwealth, Nigeria is the second largest export
market for the UK in Africa, while the UK is the largest provider of foreign
direct investment and development assistance to Nigeria. However, the
possible slowdown of the UK economy in the short term and the
renegotiation of its trade agreements with the rest of the world could
disrupt trade between the two countries and directly affect Nigeria. A
recent report by EXX Africa on the likely impact of Brexit on African
economies suggests that these uncertainties could deal a blow to on3
The study seeks to examine the potential impact of Brexit on Nigeria and
Africa at large by seeking to understand the following parameters.
1.
2.
3.
1.3
The paper seeks to investigate the generally held belief that Britain exit
from the EU will adversely affect Nigeria and African Economy by asking
the following pertinent questions that would be investigated in the course
of the research work.
1. What is the relationship between Nigerian Economy and British
Economy?
2. What is the relationship between African Economy and British
Economy?
3. Can a political decision taken in Britain adversely affect Nigeria and
other African State?
1.4
say
yes.
It
actually
involve
trade,
relationship
and
treaties
THEORETICAL FAMEWORK
For the sake of this research work, the research topic would be
investigated using Scientific Method as our theoretical framework. It is
believed
that
Aristotle
invented
scientific
method
because
his
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
short term adverse consequences, the country and the continent will
rebound to the pre-Brexit position.
1.7
FINDINGS ANALYSIS
CLASS OF RESPONDENTS
NO. OF RESPONDENTS
FEMALE
15
MALE
10
TOTAL
25
1.8
LITERATURE REVIEW
A new report by NKC African Economics has shed more light on how
Britains leaving the European Union (EU) would impact Nigeria and Africa.
According to the report titled Mapping out the impact of surprise
Brexit vote the immediate impact on Africa was first largely contained
Brexit is bad timing for Nigeria. Just as we have addressed the fuel
subsidy and FX regime issues setting us up for a rebound following
the massive reduction in oil prices Brexit creates market turmoil;
What that means is it could take a longer time for the flexible exchange
rate market to take off because the market was banking on Foreign
Portfolio Investments (FPIs) as liquidity suppliers. Right now, the Central
10
As a result, new portfolio inflows will slow, which will hamper the
implementation of the countrys new foreign exchange mechanism. On 20
June, the central bank introduced a more flexible foreign currency policy,
removing a de facto peg of around 197 naira to the US dollar. The nairas
16-month peg to the dollar had overvalued the Nigerian currency, resulted
in an economic contraction, and harmed investments. The implementation
of the fuel sector liberalization, including the termination of a burdensome
state-subsidy scheme, would be likely to face implementation issues. The
sectors liberalization will add to fuel importers margins and will allow
shipments of fuel to resume. The liberalization of the fuel marketing sector
and the proposed introduction of a flexible exchange rate are both aimed
at soothing foreign investor concerns and to attract new fundraising to
finance a record budget deficit widened by a fall in oil revenues. The
effective implementation of the new currency regime and establishing its
credibility will be key to attracting new foreign direct investment and
portfolio flows. Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun is due to launch a planned
Eurobond sale later in 2016. The government plans to raise USD10 billion
of new debt of which USD5 billion would come from foreign investors.
Much of this planning would be delayed as risk averse investors steer
away from Nigerian debt.
Beyond trade and investment, the UK is also a key partner in Nigerian
security. The UK has been crucial to drawing international attention to the
Islamist Boko Haram insurgency in Nigerias northeast. There is a risk that
the UK would become distracted from international security threats, such
as those by Boko Haram, as it negotiates its departure from the EU.
11
However, the US and France have proven more crucial partners than the
UK in combating Boko Haram, thus mitigating the effect on counterinsurgency efforts.
An exit from the European Union would also have dire consequences for
development assistance. In a recent article, Kevin Watkins, a Brookings
non-resident senior fellow and executive director of the Overseas
Development Institute (ODI)an international development think tank
based in London highlights the consequences of the Brexit on
development assistance. The U.K. is one of the biggest contributors to the
European Development Fund, the EUs development assistance arm,
which provides funds to developing countries and regions. The U.K.
currently contributes 409 million$585 million making up 14.8 percent
of contributions to the fund (Figure 1). The fund is one of the worlds
largest providers of multilateral concessional aid, with disbursements
exceeding ones channelled through the World Banks International
Development Association (IDA). While a Brexit would deprive the EDF of
British resources for development assistance, Watkins argues that the
direct disbursement of aidset to replace the U.K.s contribution to the
fundfrom the U.K. to recipient countries will have a more narrow
geographical reach than aid funnelled through the EDF.
Not everybody
agrees.
In an interview with Radio France International (RFI), James Duddridge,
British
Member
of
Parliament
and
leave
advocate,
states
that
decline in Nigeria's GDP due to the strong trade ties between the two
nations.
1.9
more social impact solutions and private capital from impact investors will
still seek out such opportunities.
Moreover, a sharp slowdown in the UK and/or the UK, should it occur,
would be mirrored in falling aid flows. Dramatic withdrawals of donor
finance could be a catalyst for political risk events of varying severity. For
example, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyattas current stated policy of
repatriating Somalian refugees in Dadaab Camp should be viewed in the
context of cuts to EU funding for African Union peacekeeping last year. As
such, in addition to calculating financial dependence on donor support,
risk management strategies must also consider the ability of local
politicians, newly without these resources, to meet the expectations of
their constituents/clients.
Another key issue that could be affected by the Brexit is one of
agricultural subsidies. For years, the U.K. has criticized the current
subsidies European countries have in place, which have hindered African
farmers trade capacities. In his argument in favor of the leave option,
James Duddridge voiced his concerns over the EUs Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP), which puts in place subsidy systems with harmful effects on
African farmers competitiveness. With more than 60 percent of Africas
economically active population working in agriculture, the subsidies take
an important toll on the livelihoods of a majority of Africans. The U.K. has
been a key opponent of the subsidies. In a situation where the U.K. was to
leave the EU, there would not be a strong voice within the EU advocating
for the livelihoods of African farmers.
15
In sum, there are a number of ways through which the Brexit could have
an impact on African countries, starting with its impact on the global
economy,
reduced
development
British
issues,
as
outwardness
well
as
when
decreased
it
comes
bilateral
to
global
development
assistance and trade. They are all difficult to quantify but broadly point to
a negative impact on African countries. The Brexit referendum is rather
inopportune as African countries are facing serious external shocks such
as the fall in commodity prices, an economic slowdown in China, and
higher external borrowing costs. There is not much that they can do on
the external front that leaves adequate and timely domestic policies the
priority.
The only certainty in all this is uncertainty. Uncertainty on the markets and
uncertainty over the future of trade relations between the UK and Africa.
The most internationally traded African currency, the South African rand,
is already having a bumpy ride in the wake of the UK's decision to leave
the European Union. Measures of implied volatility for emerging markets,
which are gauges of how currencies are expected to swing, are breaking
recent records. For its part, the rand has lost more than 8% against the US
dollar, although it has gained against the tumbling pound.
The UK referendum has political implications for African countries,
including Nigeria. To a large extent, the conception of regional economic
blocs in Africa has been predicated on the success of the European Union.
To further the agenda to facilitate free movement of persons, goods and
services around the continent, the African Union has announced the
commencement of the e-passport for Africa.
16
1.10
RECOMMENDATION
vulnerability
to
external
shocks
like
the
Brexit
CONCLUSION
Britain's historic decision to leave the European Union (EU) is fraught with
economic, political, immigration and diplomatic implications that would
spread far beyond the borders of the island nation. For the EU, losing onesixth of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) size in one fell swoop is quite
staggering. But the EU will have to soldier on, foster a more inclusive
economic bloc and prevent the unravelling of the European project.
17
As Europes second largest and the world's fifth largest economy, there
has been an uncertainty over the competitiveness of the United Kingdom
as a key investment hub since it is now going to lose the market access
that it has by virtue of its membership in the EU's single market. This and
other uncertainties around the renegotiation of UK-EU economic relations
sent the global financial and oil markets plunging the day after the
referendum result was announced.
Those who campaigned for Brexit, have maintained that the UK can
negotiate better trade deals for itself when it leaves the EU. The UKs
economy largely thrives on trade. Measured as a share of GDP, trade
accounts for about 59 percent of the UKs economy. Exports alone
accounted for 28.4 percent of the countrys GDP in 2014. This is slightly
lower, compared to smaller economies such as France (28.7 percent), Italy
(29.6 percent) and Spain (32.5 percent). Supporters of Brexit insist Britain
will not get better terms of trade if the country were to remain in the EU
since trade agreements between European Union countries and non-EU
countries are negotiated by the European Commission, albeit on behalf of
EU member states.
Without knowing whether or not the rhetoric of getting better trade deals
with UKs largest trading partner can be positive, investors are expected
to delay investment decisions in the UK. Long-term investment is
encouraged by an assurance of market access. But UK firms will lose that
automatic access to the biggest single market in the world when the
country exits the EU. UK Overseas Trade Statistics for April 2016,
published by HM Revenue and Customs, already shows that UK recorded a
18
trade deficit of 35.2 billion for the first quarter of 2016, a 14.5 percent
increase from a 30.8 billion deficit posted in Q1 2015.
Before the
become weaker post-Brexit, the country would scale back its investment
in development projects in countries like Nigeria, even if temporarily. As of
December 2014, the UK Department for International Development had a
portfolio of 40 projects in Nigeria with a planned budget of 232 million for
2014/2015, which included grants to non-profits, technical assistance and
partnerships with other development agencies. As a member of the British
Commonwealth, Nigeria has strong ties with Britain. After South Africa,
Nigeria is Britain's second largest trading partner in Africa, with 6 billion
(about N2.4 trillion or $8.52 billion) in bilateral trade volume last year.
Demand for UK goods and services in Nigeria could rise as the value of the
19
REFERENCES
Andrew, N.(2016)brexit-uncertainty-nig-implications.pdf
James, D. (2016, July 5) The end of British outwardness. Retrieved from
www.brookings.edu/opinions/africas-powerhouse
Jean D.(2016, July11) Brexits impact on Africa retrieved from
www.biztechafrica.com/article/brexits-impactafrica/11526\l
Mthuli,N. (2014, July 11), Global Economic Spillovers into Africa in HighLevel
20
APPENDIX
QUESTIONNAIRE
Department of Political Science,
Babcock University,
Ilishan-Remo,
Ogun State,
13th August, 2016.
Dear Respondent,
I a postgraduate students of the Babcock University, carrying out a research on
The Impact of Brexit on Nigeria and Africa. You have been chosen as a respondent for this
study. Kindly assist by indicating your honest response to the following questions below.
Your response will be treated with utmost confidentiality.
Thank you.
SECTION A
21
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Please tick ( ), as considered appropriate.
1) Sex: Male
2) Religion:
Female
Christianity
Islam
Others
22
No