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ID-Sen: Lake Research Partners For Jerry Sturgill (July 2016)
ID-Sen: Lake Research Partners For Jerry Sturgill (July 2016)
Interested Parties
Final Ballot
35
37
25
23
27
Sturgill
Crapo
2
Writz
Undecided
Crapo has low job performance ratings this is the biggest indication that
Sturgill may have an opportunity to win. Crapo is upside-down in job
performance, with 48% of voters saying that he is doing a just fair or poor job
(41% say he is doing an excellent or good job). Undecided voters and
independents are especially unhappy with the job Crapo is doing as Senator:
55% of undecided voters say that Crapo is doing a just fair or poor job (20% say
he is doing an excellent or good job); 59% of swing voters say that Crapo is doing
a just fair or poor job (35% say he is doing an excellent or good job).
Undecided voters are good for Sturgill. While the electorate as a whole is more
Republican, undecided voters are equally Democratic (31% identify as
Democrats; 31% as Republicans). On the national front, Hillary Clinton leads
Donald Trump among undecided voters in Idaho (27/23). Also, as mentioned, a
majority of undecided voters do not think Crapo is doing a good job, so his lead
in this race can close quickly.
i Methodology: Lake Research Partners designed and administered the survey and it was conducted by
telephone using professional interviewers on July 5 10, 2016. The survey reached a total of 500 likely 2016
voters in Idaho. Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a list of registered voters in Idaho. The
data were weighted slightly by gender, age, region, party registration, party identification, religion, partisanship
score, and education. Both cell phones and landlines were called. The margin of error for the total sample is +/4.4% and larger for sub-groups.