Hotels data

Rooms
RoomsX365 days
Occupancy in %
Growth of prices per year
Average revenue per room in Euro

Assumptions
150
54.75
65%
5%
130

2005

P&L (000's Euro)

Assumptions
Sales
COGS
15% X sales
GROSS MARGIN
Personnel
3% YoY growth
Marketing expenses
14% X sales
Overhead
11% X sales
EBITA
Depreciation (6% of the building)
9000
6%
EBIT
Financial Expenses
3%
(1)
EBT
Taxes
35%
Net income
Dividends to Equity holders: 50% of profit of previous year
Balance Net Income
Profitability ratios
Sales Growth
Gross Margin/sales
ROS (Net incomes/sales)
ROE (Net income/equity)
ROA (EBIT/Net Assets)

Abridged Balance Sheet

Assumptions
NFO (% of sales)
5%
NFO (line of credit required)
Gross FA
17
Net Assets
NA ( Net assets + NFO) (Total Assets)
D Debt long term
10,000
E Equity
7,000
Debt+Equity
Total Liability
Cash Surplus (+) or Loan (-)

2005
10725
1609
9116
900
1502
1180
5535
540
4995
166.1
4829
1690
3139
3139

85%
29%
45%
29%

(2)

(3)
(4)

(5)
(5)

(6)

2004
na
0
8000
8000
8000
5000
3000
8000
8000
0

2005
5%
536
17000
17000
17536
10000
7000
17000
17000
-536

Dividend paid (50% NI prev. year)

CASH FLOW CALCULTAION AND RETURNS

Free cash flow or cash flow of the project
EBIT
variation of NA (+ -)
FCF
IRR Project
FCF after taxes
IRR after taxes

1
2005
(7)
4995
(8)
-8000 -9536.25
(9) -18245.15
(10)
(11)
(12)

CF Shareholder
Net inccome
Variation of NA (+/-)
Variation of Debt (+/-)
CF Shareholder
annual increase in share
dividends paid
IRR Shareholder

(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)

CF AC GROUP
CF Shareholder
Cost of options ?
Cannibalization ? (10% X Margin)
Headquarter charge ? (7% sales)

0
2004

Assumptions
70%

8000
5000

3139
9000
5000

(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)

IRR AC Hotels
RISKS
Identify biggest Risk (24)
Occupancy
IRR AC Group
Revenue/room
IRR AC Group
Growth of sales
IRR AC Group
Construction
IRR AC Group

Worst

Base

Best

55%

65%

75% D=0
D=10
145 D=15

115

130

3%

5%

6%

11

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2006
12285
1843
10442
927
1720
1351
6444
540
5904
332.2
5572
1950
3622
1569
2052

2007
13309
1996
11312
955
1863
1464
7030
540
6490
317.6
6173
2161
4012
1811
2202

2008
13974
2096
11878
983
1956
1537
7401
540
6861
302.4
6559
2296
4263
2006
2257

2009
14673
2201
12472
1013
2054
1614
7791
540
7251
287.2
6964
2437
4526
2132
2395

2010
15407
2311
13096
1043
2157
1695
8201
540
7661
272.1
7388
2586
4803
2263
2539

2011
16177
2427
13750
1075
2265
1779
8631
540
8091
426.9
7665
2683
4982
2401
2581

2012
16986
2548
14438
1107
2378
1868
9085
540
8545
411.9
8133
2846
5286
2491
2795

2013
17835
2675
15160
1140
2497
1962
9561
540
9021
397.0
8624
3018
5606
2643
2962

14.5%
85%
29%
52%
36%

8.3%
85%
30%
57%
41%

5.0%
85%
31%
61%
45%

5.0%
85%
31%
65%
49%

5.0%
85%
31%
69%
54%

5.0%
85%
31%
71%
42%

5.0%
85%
31%
76%
45%

5.0%
85%
31%
80%
49%

2006
5%
614
17000
16460
17074
9000
7000
16000
16000
-1074

2007
5%
665
17000
15920
16585
8000
7000
15000
15000
-1585

2008
5%
699
17000
15380
16079
7000
7000
14000
14000
-2079

2009
5%
734
17000
14840
15574
6000
7000
13000
13000
-2574

2010
5%
770
17000
14300
15070
5000
7000
12000
12000
-3070

2011
5%
809
22662
19422
20231
4000
7000
11000
11000
-9231

2012
5%
849
22662
18882
19731
3000
7000
10000
10000
-9731

2013
5%
892
22662
18342
19234
2000
7000
9000
9000
-10234

1569

2
2006
5904
462

3622
-540
-1000

1811

2006

2132

2263

2401

2491

2643

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
6490
6861
7251
7661
8091
8545
9021
488.8125 506.7281 505.0645 503.3178 -5160.516 499.5578 497.5357

4012
-540
-1000

4263
-540
-1000

NPV AC Hotels

4526
-540
-1000

4803
-540
-1000

4982
5122
-1000

K=

12%

IRR AC Group in scenario (25)

Worst
Base
Best
Debt
0
Equity
17
IRR Shareholders
IRR AC Group
IRR AC Group assuming away
Options
Cannibalization
HQ Charge

5286
-540
-1000

5606
-540
-1000

IRR & Level of Debt (base scenario

7
10
10
7

2014

2015

2014
18727
2809
15918
1174
2622
2060
10062
540
9522
382.2
9140
3199
5941
2803
3138

2015
19663
2949
16714
1210
2753
2163
10588
540
10048
367.4
9681
3388
6293
2970
3322

5.0%
85%
32%
85%
53%

5.0%
85%
32%
90%
58%

2014
5%
936
22662
17802
18738
1000
7000
8000
8000
-10738

2015
5%
983
22662
17262
18245
0
7000
7000
7000
-11245 Negetive fig. indicates short term loan

2803

2970

10
11
2014
2015
K
9522
10048
12%
495.4125 493.1831
g
2%

5941
-540
-1000

Debt (base scenario)

13
4

6293 K
-540
12%
-1000
g
2%

15
2