Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The End of Buy and Hold ... and Hope Brian Rezny
The End of Buy and Hold ... and Hope Brian Rezny
The End of Buy and Hold ... and Hope Brian Rezny
rallied (rallies on good, fake, and bad news alike are what bubbles are
made of … as are consequent crashes) … oh, almost forgot the higher oil
part of the bull ‘story’.
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert
his charts in this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they
are a must see so go to his article, not just because I agree with much of
what he says though he’s light on that ‘depression thing’ and overly
optimistic as such, but because he is smart – You may click here for
archived version) ‘… Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in today’s market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But that’s not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. It’s not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger
picture… and it’s a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are
long-term trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets
generally see stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear
markets see stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are
interspersed with shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000
we experienced a secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a
return if you bought and held for the duration … (chart) … But since then?
We have been in what I call a secular bear market. As you can see below,
an investor who bought into an index that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend
began in 2000, has experienced a negative return. And based on the typical
length of a secular bear, we could have several more years to go in this
trend … (chart) And it’s not just over the last 30 years that this cycle has
occurred. We can look back over the last century and see a continuum of
secular markets, with bear trends starting in 1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000…’
Reuters headline: wall street advances as tech soars … This harkens back
to the dot.com days and I can personally attest to the fact that any
thoughts that tech will save us, tech’s the thing, along with the next new
tech thing is preposterous and without foundation so lacking is the same
in terms of utility / added value except as to the greater efficiency with
which the churn-and-earn commissionable wall street frauds are
consummated.
Oct 31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions.
Robert D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. ...
www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23, 2008 ... But state and local debt as a
share of GDP has quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall
economy, recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ... Robert Arnott ‘… the latest 12
months saw our public debt and unfunded obligations grow by 18% of
GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown crushingly large. It’s
noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by ignoring off-balance-
sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins an allexpense-
paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you write the
laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more
economically accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning
level… for over 25 years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such
an extended period of time, the debt picture won’t be pretty. It’s not. At 60%
of GDP, the United States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1
But that’s not the whole story. To get the complete picture, we need to
factor in state and local debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly
developing) countries don’t have layers of autonomous public entities of
this sort. Adding federal, state, local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now
at 141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company— only
Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are higher. Add in household debt (highest
in the world at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest in the world at
317% of GDP, not even counting off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives),
and our total debt is 557% of GDP. Less than three years ago, our total
indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the first time. As Figure 2 shows,
apart from the shadow banking system we are most assuredly not
deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the unfunded portion
of entitlement programs and we’re at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No wonder the
debt burden feels so crushing. What can’t happen, won’t happen. If we
can’t afford our direct debt, we surely can’t afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to “means
testing.” If retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal
until their savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This
still leaving us true, direct debt of 5½ times our income. It is a daunting
figure. How many people do you know that have owed five times their
annual income and suffered no adverse consequences? …
Summer Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians,
social and financial analysts, along with police bodies are all predicting
that Europe and America are set to experience a summer of rage, with
scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece in reaction to
draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in the
west Deflationary Depression and Purging To Come What now that
stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still
high expectations for gold. Strategic Defaults: Is It Morally Right To
Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of
Americans are defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is
because they simply cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
(6-3-10) Dow 10,235 +5 Nasdaq 2303 +22 S&P 500 1,103 +4 [CLOSE- OIL
$74.61 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85
(reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,210[video] Gold Surges
Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $17.93 (+47% for
year 2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .82 EURO, 92
YEN, .68 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR
NOTE YIELD 3.37% …..… AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap – Stocks / Bonds / Currencies -
Domestic / International MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE
LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED
3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10
[archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market
that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week
Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10
Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING
MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11
Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons
Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover
Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for
2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! ‘WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
EVER’ Must Read Economic / Financial Data This
Depression is just beginning The coming depression…
thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAM’S
QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back
Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL /
TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
The Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double
Dip Is Now A ‘Virtual Certainty’ The stock of U.S. money as measured by
‘M3′ money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2 trillion during the three
months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but … I
don’t buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to
pump out ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of
worthless fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further
believe the same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent
paper, the consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is
invariably so in depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean
huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat Money Supply Contracting at Great
Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy Glass-
Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obama’s top economic adviser, has told
Congress to “grit its teeth” and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat Money Supply
Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
Sell in May and Go Away, Indeed [ I wasn’t kidding; and, I’m still not kidding when I say:
This is a great opportunity to sell / take profits because there’s much worse to
come! ]
Forecasts from Dent, Napier, and then Prechter: Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones
Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was
the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400
at one or more times during the bear market.
10 Reasons to Worry About Margin Growth … a good portion of these factors will likely
impact margins by the end of the year. I don’t believe this is adequately factored into
earnings estimates across the board. Given this, I believe we have seen the highs
for the year and next few quarters will be extremely volatile ...
Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Won’t Recognize America By The End
Of The Year Business Insider | “Pul – leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don’t give a
damn whether you have paper losses or paper profits!”
The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement
imposed. If that were so, they wouldn’t be worrying about who wins / loses since those
who fraudulently play, invariably would (and should) pay. If they’re not prosecuted,
everyone loses.
THE FORECASTS:
Harry Dent, Jr. Economy will be in a Depression by 2011
The worst of this next depression is likely to hit between mid-2010 and mid-2013,
especially around early 2011, but if the banking system continues to implode a deep
downturn or depression could begin sometime in 2009 instead of 2010.
Dow will Fall to 3,800 – 4,500 by 2012
Nasdaq will Fall Below 1,100, its 2002 low, by late 2010 or mid-2012 at the latest.
Inflation will Increase until mid- 2010 and then turn to Deflation
Interest Rates will Increase
U.S. Dollar will Decline
Housing will Decline by 40 – 60% from Today’s Levels
Greatest Economic and Banking Crisis since the 1930s will Occur Between 2010 and 2012
Russell Napier is the author of the book “Anatomy of the Bear”, a professor at the
Edinburgh Business School and a consultant to CLSA Ltd. which is one of the top
research houses in Asia. Napier’s research indicates (and I paraphrase) that: The S&P 500
will Decline to 400 by 2014 (the Dow 30 to 3800)
The S&P 500 will then undergo a major crash that will see U.S. equity prices bottom at
almost 50% below current levels (i.e. to 400 or less; the Dow 30 to 3800 or less) sometime
around 2014 as Tobin’s “q” drops to 0.3 signaling the end of the bear market, as it has
done at the end of the four largest U.S. market declines in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982.
U.S. Treasury Sales Collapse Leading to End of U.S. Dollar as Reserve Currency
Robert R. Prechter Jr. is author of a number of newsletters and books including “Elliott
Wave Principle” (1978) in which he predicted the super bull market of the 1980s; “At the
Crest of the Tidal Wave – A Forecast of the Great Bear Market” (1995) in which he
predicted a slow motion economic earthquake, brought about by a great asset mania, that
would register 11 on the financial Richter scale causing a collapse of historic proportions;
and “Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression”
(2002) in which he described the economic cataclysm that we are just beginning to
experience and advised how to position one’s self financially during that period of time.
Depression is Imminent
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777
which was the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below
400 at one or more times during the bear market.
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every second.
A Plague Upon The World: The USA is a “Failed State” Dr. Paul Craig
Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited. US citizen killed on flotilla
reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A forensic report said
Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in his head and
one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The explanation
foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably something
on the order of ‘they just wanted to make sure they missed him’.
Roberts: ‘AIPAC purchases US elections’ Russia Today | Paul Craig
Roberts says that there will be nothing that is going to be done by the
United States to change the relationship with Israel.
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why? They
already have that and more:
Launch of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new
weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
War in Afghanistan and Iraq costs America $1trillion From the Old | On May
30th at 10:06 the United States reached the point where they have
spent $1trillion on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Sinking of the
Cheonan: A Classic False Flag Operation Russia Today | Sinking of
the warship was really intended to convince Japan not to move US
forces off Okinawa as well as divert the attention of Americans from
the dire economic situation at home. . Israel: IDF Troops Who
Murdered Unarmed Innocent People Are ‘Brave Heroes’ The
government of israel, aided by many quarters of the international
media, is attempting to spin today’s deadly IDF assault on a
humanitarian aid ship carrying supplies to Gaza as the fault of the
murdered activists on board the vessel, ludicrously characterizing
machine-gun carrying Israeli troops who killed over a dozen innocent
people as the victims of the incident.
Murder on the high seas JERUSALEM: Israeli marines stormed aid ships
bound for Gaza on Monday and at least 10 rights activists were killed,
triggering a diplomatic crisis and an emergency session of the UN
Security Council. European nations, as well as the United Nations and
Turkey, voiced shock and outrage at the bloody end to the
international campaigners' bid to break Israel's blockade of the Gaza
Strip
"What this means is that Neanderthals are not totally extinct. In some of us,
they live on," Paabo … With regard to that extinction thing, I’d say
they’re still working on it (ultimately, decades, extinction, the
distinction, without a difference). Actually, prior to studying the
compelling subject of Biological Anthropology (Michael Park text), I
too had some misconceptions about the group known as Neandertals
(recent spelling drops the ‘h’) and actually mis-referenced same by the
stereotypical image of members of said clade even as the debate
continues as to whether they are within the species homo sapiens or a
separate species. I believe these to be distinctions without important
differences, so humble the origins and evolution of man truly are.
Parenthetically, I wonder what that anthropological scientist Heidi
Klum thinks on the subject.
Previously I wrote:
FOUND: MISSING LINK BETWEEN APES AND MAN.... These stories, and
the many like it, are old news and I subscribe to the more studied view
that there is no “missing link” per se and in my view they are
distinctions without significant differences. I previously wrote:
To Learn More About From Whence Man Came, This Link's For You
Drudgereport: Cops: Man killed kitten after animal unplugged his video
game...
DREAD IN THE MED: ISRAEL CONCERNED TURK NAVY WITH NEXT
FLOTILLA
Japanese prime minister intends to resign over U.S. Marine base...
Developing...
Activists send new boat to challenge blockade...
Irish ship latest to try and breach embargo...
Thousands of Gazans rush for Egyptian border...
Turkey Slams u.s. Response as american war criminals they are ...
...Israeli gov't defends the Indefensible because they’re war criminals
'Next time we'll use more force'...
Ahmadinejad: 'israeli commandos are wild dogs (yes, they they are mad
dogs)'...
...wants Netanyahu to (and netanayahu should) face trial
US consulate issues advisory for Israel...
JERUSALEM POST News Feed...
Israel faces int'l fury over flotilla...
Bloody raid...
Turkey warns of 'consequences'...
Israel in eye of storm...
Thousands protest, clashes in Athens...
Paris: Demonstrators tried to break into Israeli embassy...
Oil sheen confirmed less than 10 miles from Florida beach... Developing...
Robots succeed, cut well pipe; oil gushes into Gulf...
Gulf oil spill threat widens, BP shares drop...
WHITE HOUSE: FLOW RATE OF BP'S SPILL COULD INCREASE BY 20%
DURING NEW OPERATION...
'OIL COMING UP UNTIL AUGUST'...
Israel recoils as USA wisely backs UN move...
DAY 41: NO END IN SIGHT...
U.S. Plans 'for Worst' in Gulf...
Czech President: Euro Zone has failed...
Feds Telling BP 'What to Do'...
Latest Attempt by BP to Plug Oil Leak in Gulf of Mexico Fails...
BP now throwing GOLF BALLS into the oil well...
Prepares Backup Plan...
Pelosi blames Bush admin...
Parish President: Obama 'Chewed Me Out'...
BP Buses In 400 Workers During Obama's Visit...
Maher: Obama Not Acting Like A 'Real Black' President...
'mafia king cuomo' Mocked At NY Convention...
Dow Average Ends Worst May Since 1940... Brutal...
Credit rating cut deals blow to Spain... Debt Burden...
WARS: US Prepares for Largest Battle in Afghanistan...
PAPER: Israel to deploy nuclear submarines in Persian Gulf...
Bankruptcy talk spreads among California muni officials...
BP Resumes Effort to Seal Oil Well After Daylong Halt...
Stops video of leaking pipe, blames dirty lens...
Spill could be twice the EXXON Valdez...
22-mile-long deep-sea plume discovered...
Oil washes over 100 miles of Louisiana coast...
Obama to Americans: Go to beaches; most still open...
Landrieu: President will pay political price...
Issa: Job offer scandal could be Obama's 'Watergate'...
'Top Kill' Operations Start in Attempt to Plug Leaking Gulf Oil...
Spill hits over 100 miles of Louisiana coast...
[video] A Summer Of Slumping Stocks
CHINA WISELY SHOULD SHIELD NKOREA
NKorea bracing, severing all ties with South....
New Chinese aggression..
Israel drill raises tensions...
CBSNEWS POLL: Americans Pessimistic, Dissatisfied with Washington...
MOODY'S: Debt Level, Spending Pose Risk to America's Aaa Credit
Rating...
Another Vacation? Obama schedules second since oil spill...
Withdrew to Grove Park Inn & Spa as flow began to grow...
BUT makes time to host fundraiser for Boxer...
FINALLY: Bows to pressure: Will visit Gulf Coast during vacation...
BUT Will skip Memorial Day ceremony at Arlington Nat'l Cemetery... ONLY to return for
Paul McCartney concert!
SYRIA: Obama has failed in peace efforts; Lost influence in Mideast...
RASMUSSEN: OBAMA APPROVAL DROPS TO 44%...
Dem Freshmen Run Away...
63% Now Favor Repeal of HealthCare Law...
READY FOR NEW ‘GULF OF TONKIN’ / WAR...
US plans naval exercises with SKorea...
Gold Rising; Speculators buying faster than producers can mine...
US Plays Down European Crisis but China Worried...
Immelt: European economy 'teetering'...
wobama’s wet dream with new jive of New “International Order” despite
nation’s defacto bankruptcy and policies that have left allies defacto
bankrupt as well in jive session At West Point Uses teleprompters...
Tepid applause from cadets: Cuts 'That's a lot of cheering' line from prepared remarks …
Sestak confirms WH job offer to get out of Senate race … to save specter
whose specter is no more in those hallowed halls he sullied as less than
inspector specter from JFK assassination, to financial assassination of the
nation, etc. ... ...
Anger mounts as oil blackens Louisiana coast...
GOP takes House seat in Obama's Hawaiian home district..
Crisis Imperils Benefits Long Expected by Europeans...
Britain faces aggressive cuts in 'age of austerity' having leapt like
lemmings into american oblivion ...
France poised to raise retirement age...
Fiscal crises threaten Europe's generous benefits...
SPAIN SEIZES SAVINGS BANK IN RESCUE BID AS TALKS FAIL...
Public beach in Louisiana closed as oil washes up...
Mass layoffs spike led by manufacturing...
Report: CA borrowed $7 billion from feds to pay jobless benefits...
Nine NY workers retired with $100k+ pensions -- in their 30s...
Stocks Drop Most in a Year on Economic Reports, European Debt Crisis...
Roubini: Stocks to Tumble Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place...
Strains Accumulate...
Fed official: Europe's crisis poses risks to USA...
Confusion over regulation moves trigger sell-offs...
Unemployment spike largest in 3 months...
German Finance Minister: Markets Out of Control...
Greeks strikers march on parliament against cuts...
Rand Paul wins KY Senate race…Specter loses...
Grim milestone: 1,000 Americans dead...
DEMSASTER: SENATE CANDIDATE 'LIED' ABOUT SERVING IN VIETNAM
DOW AT SAME LEVEL IT WAS -- 10 YEARS AGO!
Bankruptcies resume upward path...
Mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures break records...
State pensions becoming federal issue; Bail-out cost potentially more than
$1T...
Greece May Take Legal Steps Against U.S. Banks for Crisis...
Euro Breakup Concerns Grow...
Germans lose faith...
Merkel: Rescue package 'just buys time'...
Roubini Says Greece 'Tip of Iceberg' as Sovereign Debt Threatens
Recovery...
Geithner: 'I Never Had A Real Job'… sounds like a plan!...
Tent City In New York Set Up In Hopes For Elevator Job... camped out
for 3 days for chance at getting an application
NATIONAL ENQUIRER CLAIMS OBAMA CHEATING SCANDAL...
'Hotel security video could topple Obama's presidency'...
GOLDMAN BOSS VISITED WHITE HOUSE AT LEAST 4 TIMES...
GOLDMAN SACHS CEO endorses Dem Banking Bill: 'Wall Street will
benefit'...
GREECE CUT TO JUNK... Doubts intensify... Spreads to Portugal...
Stephen Hawking: Aliens exist but don't talk to them -- it's too dangerous
… might not like us… Oh pshaw! … Human nature, man’s inhumanity to
man? … Such humble beginnings and evolutionary history … What’s not
to like? … Besides, not to worry. With their advanced technologies that
defy human understanding, the aliens already know you’re here … to stay.
So, not to worry. After all, as we know from that documentary of that same
name, ‘Earth Girls Are Easy’ … and then there’s photosynthesis on earth in
a very big way also going for it! ...
Seeing Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin’ to happen;
at best, decades.
http://www.albertpeia.com/alresume.htm