Data Mining 1AC

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school
Inherency
Contention 1 is inherency:
NASA is overloaded by data now- makes it unusable- new solutions are
key
Smith 13
[Brett Smith, writer for Red Orbit, October 18, 2013, NASA Reveals Herculean Process Of Handling Big Data
http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1112978899/nasa-big-data-process-revealed-101813/, ABirenbaum]
If youve ever downloaded a movie from the Internet, you know that large amounts of data can take time to transfer and process
using a standard computer. Now imagine the
herculean task NASA faces in trying to process the
constant flood of data streaming in from the simple Voyager probe signal emanating from outside our Solar System to
the hi-res images being downloaded from various orbiting telescopes. Scientists use big data for
everything from predicting weather on Earth to monitoring ice caps on Mars to searching for distant galaxies, said Eric De
Jong of NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and principal investigator for NASAs Solar System Visualization project. De Jongs
project team converts NASA mission science into visualization products that researchers can use for various projects. We are the
keepers of the data, and the users are the astronomers and scientists who need images, mosaics, maps and movies to find patterns
and verify theories, De Jong said. To manage the massive amount of data from space, NASA first needs a place to store the data.
After the torrents of information are stored, the space agency needs a way to visualize the data in a palatable way. Thats where De
Jongs team comes in. The staff at the Solar System Visualization project is continually developing new ways to visualize data. For
example, each image from NASAs Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, which contains about 120 megapixels apiece, is used by the project
to create a movie. De Jongs team also creates countless computer graphics and animations that allow scientists and the public to
better understand the Red Planet. Data are not just getting bigger but more complex, said De Jong. We are constantly working on
ways to automate the process of creating visualization products, so that scientists and engineers can easily use the data. NASA also
prioritizes making their vast quantities of data easily searchable. If you have a giant bookcase of books, you still have to know how
to find the book youre looking for, said Steve Groom, manager of NASAs Infrared Processing and Analysis Center at the California
Institute of Technology, Pasadena. The center, which archives data from a number of NASA astronomy missions, allows users to
access data all at once, enabling a search for large-scale patterns. Astronomers can also browse all the books in our library
simultaneously, something that cant be done on their own computers, Groom said. No human can sort through that much data,
noted Andrea Donnellan of JPL, who has a similar task for the NASA-funded QuakeSim project, which aggregates massive data sets to
study earthquake processes. The QuakeSim projects images and data plots allow scientists to learn how earthquakes happen and
extend long-term pre-emptive strategies. The data includes GPS data for hundreds of locations in California, where countless
As
NASAs pool of assets continues to grow, it will need to develop new methods
to manage the flow. As new tools develop so will the space agencys capacity to understand our universe and the world.
measurements are taken. The project scientists engineer software tools to assist users coming through the flood of data.
Its all in the game.- Omar
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Environment Advantage
Contention 2 is the climate
Climate change causes extinction- scientific consensusdoing nothing guarantees

extinction
Hsu 10
[Dr. Feng Hsu, Senior Vice President, Systems Engineering & Risk Management, Space Energy Group, "Harnessing the Sun:
Embarking on Humanity's Next Giant Leap," ONLINE JOURNAL OF SPACE COMMUNICATION n. 16, Winter 2010,
http://spacejournal.ohio.edu/issue16/hsu.html, Accessed August 7 th, 2014]
a catastrophic climate change scenario is

dire. Until recently, I worked at Goddard Space Flight Center, a NASA research center in the forefront of space and earth science
The evidence of global warming is alarming. The potential for
research. This Center is engaged in monitoring and analyzing climate changes on a global scale. I received first hand scientific
information and data relating to global warming issues, including the latest dynamics of ice cap melting and changes that occurred on
either pole of our planet. I had the chance to discuss this research with my Goddard colleagues, who are world leading experts on the
temperatures are rising, and that global warming is a serious

problem confronting all of humanity. No matter whether these trends are due to human interference or
subject. I now have no doubt global
to the cosmic cycling of our solar system, there are two basic facts that are crystal clear: a) there is
overwhelming scientific evidence showing positive correlations between the level of

CO2 concentrations in the earth's atmosphere with respect to the historical fluctuations of global
temperature changes; and b) the overwhelming majority of the world's scientific community is in
agreement about the risks of a potential catastrophic global climate change. That is, if we humans continue to ignore
this problem and do nothing, if we continue dumping huge quantities of greenhouse gases into earth's biosphere,
humanity will be at dire risk. As a technical and technology risk assessment expert, I could show with confidence
that we face orders of magnitude more risk doing nothing to curb our fossil-based energy addictions than we will in making a
the risks of a catastrophic anthropogenic climate change can

be potentially the extinction of human species, a risk that is simply too high for us to take any chances.
fundamental shift in our energy supply. This is because
Of course, there will be economic consequences to all societies when we restrict the burning of fossil fuels in an effort to abate
"global warming." What we are talking about are options and choices between risks. All human activities involve risk taking; we
cannot avoid risks but only make trade-offs, hopefully choosing wisely. In this case, there has to be a risk-based probabilistic
thought process when it comes to adopting national or international policies in dealing with global warming and energy
issues. As the measure of risk is a product of "likelihood" and "consequence," when consequence or risk of a potential human
extinction (due to catastrophic climate change) is to be compared with the potential consequence or risk of loss of jobs
or slowing the growth of economy (due to restriction of fossil-based energy consumption), I believe the choice is clear.
Page 2
Page 3
The plan solves- 2 internal links
1. Large climate data analysis- key to pattern identification
Faghmous et al 13
[James H. Faghmous is a computer scientist who works in machine learning, data mining, and spatio-temporal data analytics, with a
Ph.D in Spatio-Temporal Data Mining from the University of Minnesota; his thesis won the Best Ph.D Dissertation Award in Physical
Sciences and Engineering. He is part of a group that analyzes large climate datasets Climate Informatics Funded by the National
Science Foundations Expeditions in Computing Program. Along with M. Le, M. Uluyol, and V. Kumar. From Parameter-Free SpatioTemporal Data Mining to Catalogue Global Ocean Dynamics. Thirteenth IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM)
published 2013.Accessed August 7th, 2014| LWang]
an increasing challenge facing computer scientists is

that of identifying discrete patterns in continuous spatio-temporal field s. In this paper, we
introduce a parameter-free pattern mining application that is able to identify dynamic anomalies in
ocean data, known as ocean eddies. Despite ocean eddy monitoring being an active field of research, we provide one of the
Abstract- As spatio-temporal data have become ubiquitous,
first quantitative analyses of the performance of the most used monitoring algorithms. We present an incomplete information
validation technique that uses the performance of two methods to construct an imperfect ground truth to test the significance of
patterns discovered as well as the relative performance of pattern mining algorithms. These methods, in addition to the validation
schemes discussed
provide researchers direction in analyzing large unlabeled climate
datasets. I. Introduction The World Ocean covers more than 70% of the globes surface and is the site of intense physical,
chemical, and biological activity that impact virtually every other aspect of our planet. A plethora of phenomena occur
globally and there are significant scientific questions to be answered by effectively
monitoring such phenomena. Given that most climate phenomena are dynamic, a typical
workflow is to identify such phenomena, track their evolution, and report global statistics. The focus of this
paper is on enabling the aforementioned workflow for monitoring mesoscale ocean eddies in large climate
data.
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2. Reconstructing paleodynamics- key to climate prediction
Theron et al 04
[Roberto Theron, a researcher in the Department of Automatic Informations at the University of Salamanca collaborated with Maria
Vaquero, Didier Paillard, Claire Waelbroeck and Elsa Cortijo of the Department of Geology in the University of Salamanca,as well as
Jose-Abel Flores and Francisco Javier Sierro of the Mixed Unit of Research of the CEA-CNRS of France, along with the suggestions and
guidance of Dr. Bjorn Malmgren and Dr. Harry Dowsett. From RAPID RECONSTRUCTION OF PALEOENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES USING
A NEW MULTIPLATFORM PROGRAM, published 2004 in Micropaleontology, vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 391-395 and found at
http://carpe.usal.es/roberto/papers/micropaleontology.pdf, Accessed August 3rd, 2014 | LWang]
Ocean dynamics modeling is essential for predicting the impact of

climatic change on human activities. The need of large time series (e. g., paleoclimatic
data) has been exposed as one of the challenges to embark on decadal climate
predictability. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the surface water dynamics in the China sea during the last 130,000
years. In order to do that it was necessary the assembly of integrated comprehensive datasets
obtained from a gravity core recovered in the Sunda Slope (South China Sea) using different techniques such as
quantitative analyses from cocolithophores, stable isotopes and biomarkers. Thanks to data mining, through a variety of data
Abstract
analysis tools, from Silicon Graphics Mineset, such as Decision trees and Clustering we have established the variations in the water
column stratification (nutricline/thermocline relative position). This study is a good example of combining data mining and
paleoceanography to explain some general paleodynamics, including short-time events, showing the potential to monitor and predict
in the context of decadal time-series. I. INTRODUCTION Over the last years we have witnessed how the claim of society for accurate
climate prediction has increased; therefore, the climate predictability has emerged as one of the most powerful areas of research. Two
approaches may be used: the development of new methods that will provide best-guess predictions; and a better understanding of
the climate changes in the past that will lead to a more accurate ability of prediction. Along with atmospheric and land processes,
ocean dynamics modeling is essential for predicting the impact of climatic change on human activities. A very interesting point is to
understand how some mechanisms has contributed in the past to sudden climate changes. The need of large time series (i.e.,
paleoclimatic data) has been exposed as one of the challenges to embark on decadal climate predictability. There is only one record
of climatic data with durations exceeding decades: the paleoceanographic record. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the
surface water dynamics in the South China sea during the last 130,000 years. In order to do that it was necessary the assembly [1] of
integrated comprehensive datasets obtained from gravity core SU17961-2 (830.4'N, 112 19.9'E; 1968 m water depth; 992 cm of
core length), recovered in the Sunda Slope (South China Sea) using different techniques such as quantitative analyses from
coccolithophores [2][3], Uk37 technique for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and 18 16O ratio for the sea-surface salinity (S) [2].
data mining through a variety of

can discover pattern relationships, exceptional values and
missing values in data that may be used to make predictions. These discoveries are easy to perceive
This core shows a continuous record for the last 6 Marine Isotope Stages (MIS). Thanks to
data analysis tools we
when shown graphically, although we are restricted to showing many dimensions (or variables) on a two-dimensional computer
screen or paper. The new and powerful visualization tools developed require people to train their eyes in order to understand the
information being conveyed [4]. In the next section it is outlined a data mining approach that helps paleoceanographers to model
past events using different paleodata. II. MINING PALEORECORDS In the past decades a lot of research has been done on time-series
and data mining has found a new opportunity to apply its methods and algorithms. Climatic change is not an uncommon field for data
mining, and some [5] have treated the case of ocean time-series, but we have no news of these techniques applied to paleorecords
study, that have been traditionally done through factor and spectral analysis [6].
Page 5
Long term prediction allows adaptation to succeed
Amarakoon 10
[Sampath Amarakoon, of ARWMMSCB, is a researcher for the Department of Computing and Information
Systems, at the Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka. He graduated with a Masters from the University of Colombo School of
Computing, is an Oracle Certified Professional and is part of the IEEE Computer Scoiety and the Founder of Eclat. From
EFFECTIVENESS OF USING DATA MINING FOR PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE IN SRI LANKA, published 2010, and found at
https://www.academia.edu/5173396/Effectiveness_of_Using_Data_Mining_for_Predicting_Climate_Change_in_Sri_Lanka, Accessed
August 7th, 2014 | LWang]
I. Introduction Weather and climate services if appropriately provided could lead to improvements and savings across many sectors
whether it be plantation or subsistence farming, hydroelectricity planning and production, cropping decisions, fisheries, infrastructure
construction, disaster management and so on. From the national viewpoint, there is considerable importance of such services, given
the severe impacts of weather and climate on energy [1]. Sea level rise : Coastal settlements Coastal erosion Sea water
intrusion Fishery industry Port Activities/Tourism Temperature rise : Power Generation Agriculture and livestock Human
health Drought: Ground Water Levels Power generation Agriculture/Livestock output Human Health Transport facilities
Increased thunder activity: Damage to infrastructure Human life risks High Intensity of Rainfall: Land erosion Land
degradation Agriculture/Livestock output Human health/Human settlements Power generation Transport Infrastructure
Impacts on Climate Change The Climate of Sri Lanka is dominated by Southwest and Northeast monsoons regional scale wind
regimes. The Climate experienced during 12 months period in Sri Lanka can be characterized in to 4 climate seasons as follows. 1.
First Intermonsoon Season - March - April 2. Southwest monsoon season - May - September 3. Second Intermonsoon season - October
- November 4. Northeast Monsoon season - December February The day-to-day weather prediction has been used for decades to
forecast a few days in advance, but recent developments move the trend from a few days to inter annual forecast. Users of weather
and climate information will benefit from predictions that have a high spatial resolution and extend from a few-days to possibly a year
in advance. Indeed, such predictions are already available for Sri Lanka on the Internet. The reliability of these predictions are in
question. Thus it is all the more urgent that an indigenous prediction capacity is developed. While, the potential benefits from having
climate predictions are considerable, the resources needed for it personnel, computing environment, technological transfer and
development is modest in comparison [2]. Computer models of Sri Lanka weather may be either statistical or dynamical. The
statistical model uses the historical record to anticipate climate by analogy in relation to sea and land surface conditions. On the
other hand, dynamical models calculate in advance the variations in atmospheric and land conditions based on the laws of physics
Technological improvements increase the understanding in meteorology that how the different cycles, El Nio Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) [3] over the Pacific Ocean and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) [4] affects the climate of the regions world widely. Sri Lanka
(Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka), have started the utilization of Seasonal Climate forecast Systems. In 1995, the International
Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) was formed by a group of scientists to overcome the shortcomings of previous work. The
main goal and purpose of this institute was to improve performance of existing systems, develop new accurate and sophisticated
systems for climate change. The Centre for Climate Change Studies was established as a part of the Department of Meteorology by
the Cabinet Memorandum dated 11th June 1999 to address issues related to Climate Change. The IRI with the collaboration of other
international institute for climate prediction developed new models for forecasting. IRI developed dynamical models based on the
Atmosphere General Circulation Model (AGCM), Other models are Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) [5], [6], Nonlinear Canonical
Correlation Analysis (NCCA) [7], Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array TAOA [8], Global Forecast System, Climate Forecast Model1 are
statistical, Numerical and dynamical (Two-tiered). These models use an SST as the main attribute for forecasting among other climatic
attributes. The sources of these attributes [9] are ENSO teleconnections (effects the global climate), Indian and Atlantic Ocean (effect
the regional climate). None of these models are accurate for all situations and regions . These
systems also use the geographical (longitude and latitude) location to identify the different regions instead of specific or city. The
data mining technique, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), how to develop a system that
uses numeric historical data (instead of geographical Location) to forecast the climate of a
specific region, city or months in advance. Data mining is the process of extracting important and useful
information from large data sets [10]. In this review, It was focused on the application of data mining
techniques in weather prediction. Now a days weather prediction is an emerging research field. This work provides a
brief overview of data mining techniques applied to climate prediction. KNN is classification algorithm that is based on
main purpose of this paper is how to use a
Euclidean distance formula, which is used to find out the closeness between unknown samples with the known classes. The unknown
sample is then mapped to the most common class in its k nearest neighbors. Data mining and their applications have been utilized in
different research areas and there is a bloom in this field. Different techniques have been applied for mining data over the years.
Qiang Yang and Xindong Wu [4] discussed the ten important challenging problems in data mining research area. Most used data
mining techniques are discussed in a paper [11]. Ganguly et al. in [12] explained the necessity of data mining for climate changes
Knowledge discovery from temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal data is

decisive for climate change science and climate impacts. Climate statistics are an established area.
Nevertheless, recent growth in observations and model outputs, combined with the increased availability of
geographical data, presents new opportunities for data miners. Ivan Simeonov in [13] explained the
and its impacts.
Page 6

algorithmic realization of system for short-term weather forecasting, which makes acquisition, processing and visualization of
information, related to the parameters temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction. Some of the weather
forecasting methods are 1) Persistence method, 2) Trends method, 3) Climatology method, 4) Analog method and 5) Numerical
weather prediction method [14]. Based on the above methods, the author creates a new system for short term weather forecasting.
The creation of the algorithm for short-term weather forecasting, based on the common and special features of known methods for
weather forecasting and some surface features to the earth ground level. S. Kotsiantis in [15] investigated the efficiency of data
mining techniques in estimated minimum, maximum and means temperature values. To achieve, they conducted a number of
experiments with well-known regression algorithms using real temperature data of the city. Algorithm performance has been
evaluated using standard statistical indicators, such as correlation co-efficient, Root mean squared error, etc., using this approach
they found that the regression algorithms could enable experts to predict minimum, maximum and average temperature values with
satisfying accuracy using as input the temperatures of the previous years. A system to predict the climate change was developed by
impact of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction on society, business,

agriculture and almost all aspects of human life, force the scientist to give proper attention to the
Zahoor et al. in [16]. The
matter. The last few years show tremendous achievements in this field. All systems and techniques developed so far using the Sea
Surface Temperature (SST) as the main factor, among other seasonal climatic attributes. Statistical and mathematical models are
then used for further climate predictions. In their paper, they developed a system that uses the historical weather data of a region
(rain, wind speed, dew point, temperature, etc.), and apply the data-mining algorithm K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN)
for classification of these historical data into a specific time span. The k nearest time spans (k nearest neighbors) are then taken to
predict the weather. Their experiments show that the system generates
reasonable time for months in advance when compared to other techniques.
Page 7
most accurate results within a
Warming is locked in for the next 1000 years- scientific consensus
Solomon et al 10
[Susan Solomon et. Al, Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Ph.D. in Climotology University of California, Berkeley, Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Chairman of the IPCC, Gian-Kasper
Plattner, Deputy Head, Director of Science, Technical Support Unit Working Group I, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Affiliated Scientist, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, John S. Daniel, research
scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Ph.D. in physics from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor,
Todd J. Sanford, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado Daniel M. Murphy, Chemical
Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder Gian-Kasper
Plattner, Deputy Head, Director of Science, Technical Support Unit Working Group I, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Affiliated Scientist, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland Reto Knutti, Institute for
Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenssiche Technische Hochschule Zurich and Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical
Modelling of Climate Systems, member of the Science Steering Committee of the Analysis Integration and Modeling of the Earth
System (AIMES) programme of IGBP and of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP),
8/31/2010, Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases, PNAS vol. 107, no. 43,
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/43/18354.full.pdf+html]
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases increased over the course of the 20th century due to human
activities. The human-caused increases in these gases are the primary forcing that accounts for much of the global warming of the
past fifty years, with carbon dioxide being the most important single radiative forcing agent (1). Recent studies have shown that the
warming linked to carbon dioxide is nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y, even
if emissions of the gas were to cease entirely (25). The importance of the ocean in taking up heat and slowing the
human-caused
response of the climate system to radiative forcing changes has been noted in many studies (e.g., refs. 6 and 7). The key role of the
oceans thermal lag has also been highlighted by recent approaches to proposed metrics for comparing the warming of different
greenhouse gases (8, 9). Among the observations attesting to the importance of these effects are those showing that climate
changes caused by transient volcanic aerosol loading persist for more than 5 y (7, 10), and a portion can be expected to last more
than a century in the ocean (1113); clearly these signals persist far longer than the radiative forcing decay timescale of about 1218
mo for the volcanic aerosol (14, 15). Thus the observed climate response to volcanic events suggests that some persistence of
climate change should be expected even for quite short-lived radiative forcing perturbations. It follows that the climate changes
induced by short-lived anthropogenic greenhouse gases such as methane or hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) may not decrease in concert
with decreases in concentration if the anthropogenic emissions of those gases were to be eliminated. In this paper, our primary goal
is to show how different processes and timescales contribute to determining how long the climate changes due to various greenhouse
gases could be expected to remain if anthropogenic emissions were to cease. Advances in modeling have led to improved
AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) as well as to Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). Although a
detailed representation of the climate system changes on regional scales can only be provided by AOGCMs, the simpler EMICs have
been shown to be useful, particularly to examine phenomena on a global average basis. In this work, we use the Bern 2.5CC EMIC
(see Materials and Methods and SI Text), which has been extensively intercompared to other EMICs and to complex AOGCMs (3, 4). It
should be noted that, although the Bern 2.5CC EMIC includes a representation of the surface and deep ocean, it does not include
processes such as ice sheet losses or changes in the Earths albedo linked to evolution of vegetation. However, it is noteworthy that
this EMIC, although parameterized and simplified, includes 14 levels in the ocean; further, its global ocean heat uptake and climate
sensitivity are near the mean of available complex models, and its computed timescales for uptake of tracers into the ocean have
been shown to compare well to observations (16). A recent study (17) explored the response of one AOGCM to a sudden stop of all
forcing, and the Bern 2.5CC EMIC shows broad similarities in computed warming to that study (see Fig. S1), although there are also
differences in detail. The climate sensitivity (which characterizes the long-term absolute warming response to a doubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations) is 3 C for the model used here. Our results should be considered illustrative and
exploratory rather than fully quantitative given the limitations of the EMIC and the uncertainties in climate sensitivity. Results One
Illustrative Scenario to 2050. In the absence of mitigation policy, concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxide can be expected to increase %in this century. If emissions were to cease, anthropogenic CO2 would be
removed from the atmosphere by a series of processes operating at different timescales (18). Over timescales of decades, both the
land and upper ocean are important sinks. Over centuries to millennia, deep oceanic processes become dominant and are controlled
by relatively well-understood physics and chemistry that provide broad consistency across models (see, for example, Fig. S2 showing
20% of the emitted anthropogenic

carbon remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years (with a range across models
how the removal of a pulse of carbon compares across a range of models). About
including the Bern 2.5CC model being about 19 4% at year 1000 after a pulse emission; see ref. 19), until much slower weathering
processes affect the carbonate balance in the ocean (e.g., ref. 18). Models with stronger carbon/climate feedbacks than the one
considered here could display larger and more persistent warmings due to both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases, through
reduced land and ocean uptake of carbon in a warmer world. Here our focus is not on the strength of carbon/climate feedbacks that
can lead to differences in the carbon concentration decay, but rather on the factors that control the climate response to a given
decay. The removal processes of other anthropogenic gases including methane and nitrous oxide are much more simply described by
Page 8

exponential decay constants of about 10 and 114 y, respectively (1), due mainly to known chemical reactions in the atmosphere. In
this illustrative study, we do not include the feedback of changes in methane upon its own lifetime (20). We also do not account for
potential interactions between CO2 and other gases, such as the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation (21), or
changes to the carbon cycle through, e.g., methane/ozone chemistry (22). Fig. 1 shows the computed future global warming
contributions for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for a midrange scenario (23) of projected future anthropogenic
emissions of these gases to 2050. Radiative forcings for all three of these gases, and their spectral overlaps, are represented in this
work using the expressions assessed in ref. 24. In 2050, the anthropogenic emissions are stopped entirely for illustration purposes.
The figure shows nearly irreversible warming for at least 1,000 y due to the imposed carbon dioxide increases, as in previous work.
All published studies to date, which use multiple EMICs and one AOGCM, show largely irreversible
warming due to future carbon dioxide increases (to within about 0.5 C) on a timescale of at least 1,000 y (35, 25, 26). Fig. 1
shows that the calculated future warmings due to anthropogenic CH4 and N2O also persist notably longer than the lifetimes of these
gases. The figure illustrates that emissions of key non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as CH4 or N2O could lead to warming that both
temporarily exceeds a given stabilization target (e.g., 2 C as proposed by the G8 group of nations and in the Copenhagen goals) and
remains present longer than the gas lifetimes even if emissions were to cease. A number of recent studies have underscored the
important point that reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions are an approach that can indeed reverse some past climate
changes (e.g., ref. 27). Understanding how quickly such reversal could happen and why is an important policy and science question.
Fig. 1 implies that the use of policy measures to reduce emissions of short-lived gases will be less effective as a rapid climate
mitigation strategy than would be thought if based only upon the gas lifetime. Fig. 2 illustrates the factors influencing the warming
contributions of each gas for the test case in Fig. 1 in more detail, by showing normalized values (relative to one at their peaks) of the
warming along with the radiative forcings and concentrations of CO2, N2O, and CH4. For example, about two-thirds of the calculated
warming due to N2O is still present 114 y (one atmospheric lifetime) after emissions are halted, despite the fact that its excess
concentration and associated radiative forcing at that time has dropped to about one-third of the peak value. Two factors contribute
to the differences between decreases in concentrations of greenhouse gases and persistence of the resulting warming, discussed
further below: (i) Radiative forcing may not simply follow concentration because of optical depth effects (for CO2 and CH4), and (ii)
warming may not match decreases in radiative forcing because of climate inertia, particularly due to the ocean. Climate Change
Persistence: (I) Optical Depth Effects. The physics of absorption spectroscopy dictate that radiative forcing will be linearly related to
concentration changes for those gases whose atmospheric optical depth is thin, whereas nonlinear forcing occurs for thicker optical
depths (24). Because CO2 absorption is not optically thin, the fractional increase in radiative forcing per parts per million by volume
of CO2 increase becomes smaller for larger CO2 concentrations. Fig. 2 shows how this factor acts in the reverse sense during relaxation from a peak,
enhancing the CO2 radiative forcing relative to the calculated concentration decrease. For example, for a 535 ppmv peak (as in the calculation in Fig. 1), the excess CO2
concentration above the preindustrial value of 278 ppmv remaining in the year 2200 is about 55% of the peak value, whereas the fractional radiative forcing remaining in that
year is about 63% of the peak value (i.e., the relative change in forcing is greater than the relative change in concentration by about 14%). Nonlinear optical effects grow as the
concentration change grows. For example, for a peak of CO2 of 1,200 ppmv in the 21st century followed by a stop of emissions, the relative change in forcing compared to the
relative change in concentration in the year 3000 is about 30%. Thus nonlinear spectroscopy, although not the dominant factor, contributes to rendering the warming from CO2
nearly irreversible, especially for larger values of peak concentration. Methane also displays significant nonlinearities in its radiative absorption, whereas these effects are very
small for N2O (Fig. 2). HFCs and perfluorocarbons absorb in the atmospheric window and are optically thin over the full range of plausible future concentrations; therefore, these
gases display no nonlinear optical absorption. We find that nonlinear spectral effects exceed 10% contributions to the persistence of warming only for carbon dioxide and
methane, and not for any of the other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate Change Persistence: (II) Physical Processes. Climate change is linked to a range of phenomena
displaying varying timescales (see, e.g., ref. 28). The atmosphere, clouds, and water vapor respond within a few months following a change in radiative forcing (29). The transfer
of heat from the atmosphere to the oceans mixed layer (top 100 m or so) is thought to occur on timescales on the order of a decade or less (30), whereas multiple centuries are
required to warm or cool the deep ocean (31), and changes in the great ice sheets and vegetation coverage may occur over many thousands of years (4). Much of the energy that
has been added to the Earths climate system in the 20th century through net radiative forcing has been taken up by the ocean (32). However, a large fraction of the energy that
could be trapped due to the impact of radiative forcing has not been added to the climate system at all but rather has been lost to space, because the Earth has already warmed
and therefore must radiate more energy. Observations and models both suggest that about two-thirds of the net radiative forcing (warming by anthropogenic greenhouse gases
less cooling by stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols) of the past half century has been radiated to space, while about one-third has been absorbed by the ocean (3335) .
If
anthropogenic radiative forcing were to be stabilized, atmospheric warming would continue for many centuries as the components of
the climate system reach a balance. On the other hand, if such forcing were to abruptly cease, some energy would be expected to be
lost rapidly through radiation to space, while some would be lost more slowly as the coupled ocean mixed layer/atmosphere system
adjusts. Some of the energy loss would occur over centuries depending mainly upon the amount of heat that has been stored in the
deep ocean. These processes are linked both to transient climate response and ocean heat uptake, and the uncertainties in these
parameters are of order 50% between current state-of-the-art AOGCMs (4, 35). Ocean heat uptake and changes in ocean circulation
are not well characterized by observations and contribute to the differences in future climate responses between models (3, 4, 31).
Carbon cycle processes that may slowly release carbon back to the atmosphere in a warming world (e.g., through changes in forest
cover and soil carbon dynamics) also affect the long-term behavior of warming and differ from model to model (3, 36). Understanding
the warming persistence from various forcing agents with different lifetimes and radiative forcing histories is aided by considering
energy balance for a time horizon long enough for the Earth to return to its original temperature. The energy balance equation can be
written as N F Tsurface; [1] where F is the added energy due to anthropogenic radiative forcing, N is the net heat flux, and
Tsurface is the energy radiated to space by a warmer Earth. Earth loses energy via a surface and atmosphere that are warmer
than their equilibrium values. The quantity expresses how much energy is lost per unit rise in temperature. In the long term, it is
the inverse of the climate sensitivity because, at a new steady state, N becomes zero and Tsurface F. If emissions are stopped
and treturn is a time in the future when the Earth has returned to its initial temperature (including the average temperature of the
oceans), then <equation1.jpg> Integrating both sides of Eq. 1 for this time interval and making the additional assumption that the
radiative response is independent of time and the rate of warming over this timescale (i.e., is approximately constant, or
uncorrelated with the forcing), then <equation2.jpg> The left-hand integral is just the energy trapped by the radiative forcing. Eq. 3
states that the time-integrated warming is approximately proportional to the integrated forcing, because the only way the Earth can
get rid of trapped energy is to radiate it to outer space. Ocean heat uptake delays and spreads the warming out in time, and also
defines the warming that must continue after emissions cease, i.e., the amount of time-integrated warming that must eventually
occur before the Earth returns to its original temperature. Consequences for climate change, ecosystems, and people can depend on
the time history: A long, modest increase in temperature is likely to be less harmful than a short pulse of extreme warming. In
practice, Eq. 3 is less useful for gases such as CO2 and SF6 that have such long lifetimes that the time horizon for their forcing to
Page 9

decay to zero and the Earth to return to an equilibrium temperature is many millennia. In those cases, a simplified way to view future
warming persistence is that emissions of CO2 and a handful of other extremely long-lived gases imply warming that is essentially
irreversible on human timescales without geoengineering or active sequestration. All shorter-lived gases and aerosols imply a
transient warming whose time integral is approximately determined simply by the time integral of the forcing and the equilibrium
climate sensitivity. Fig. 3 shows how the energy budget of the earthatmosphere system in the Bern 2.5CC EMIC would behave in
response to increases in radiative forcing over 100 y followed by a stop of emissions for a greenhouse gas with a 10 or 100 y lifetime.
The peak forcing in both cases is 1 Wm2. A linear increase is assumed for the first 10 y followed by a 2%per year increase from that
time until year 100. After the peak, the forcing decays with the assumed lifetime. Of particular interest is the behavior of ocean heat
uptake (Fig. 3, Left) as well as the atmospheric temperature and sea level rise (Fig. 3, Right). In the case of a gas with a 10-y lifetime,
for example, energy is slowly stored in the ocean during the period when concentrations are elevated, and this energy is returned to
the atmosphere from the ocean after emissions cease and radiative forcing decays, keeping atmospheric temperatures somewhat
elevated for several decades. Elevated temperatures last longer for a gas with a 100-y lifetime because, in this case, radiative forcing
and accompanying further ocean heat uptake continue long after emissions cease. As radiative forcing decays further, the energy is
ultimately restored from the ocean to the atmosphere. Fig. 3 shows that the slow timescale of ocean heat uptake has two important
effects. It limits the transfer of energy to the ocean if emissions and radiative forcing occur only for a few decades or a century.
energy that is added to the ocean remains available to be transferred

back to the atmosphere for centuries after cessation of emissions. Fig. 4 further illustrates how
However, it also implies that any
the computed warmings due to a broader range of specific different greenhouse gases would evolve assuming an idealized 21st
century ramp of emissions to 1 Wm2 in 100 y (as in Fig. 3), followed by cessation of emissions in the Bern 2.5CC model. If the rate of
radiative forcing were to increase at 2% per year (about the average value observed over the past several decades for CO2), the
computed warming or realized warming (33) in the Bern 2.5CC model is about 60% of the quasi-equilibrium value, similar to that of
the range of models recently assessed (4). Put differently, the climate system response under increasing radiative forcing (even on
the timescale of a century) will be smaller than the response would be if the forcing were maintained at a constant level and the
system were to largely equilibrate. The smaller response is related to the transient climate response and to the considerations
indicated above regarding the partitioning of energy flow between the ocean and loss to space under increasing forcing. The
simulations presented in Fig. 4 illustrate the importance of realized warming versus quasi-equilibrium warming. For a gas such as CF4
with a very long lifetime of about 50,000 y, concentrations and forcing remain essentially constant for more than 1,000 y following
cessation of emissions (Fig. 4, Upper). But the warming due to CF4 s radiative forcing continues to increase slowly as the ocean and
atmosphere adjust over centuries, reaching a quasi-equilibrium atmospheric warming that is about 60% larger than the transient
value obtained when emissions stopped in this model for the test case considered here (and this value is approximately the inverse of
the realized warming noted above). The same behavior would be expected if, for example, atmospheric concentrations of any gas
were to be stabilized but, for shorter-lived gases, stabilization requires continued emission (in contrast to CF4).
Carbon
dioxide concentrations display an initial fast decay for several decades in carbon cycle models after cessation of
emissions, followed by a much slower subsequent decline (see Fig. S2), but temperatures remain nearly
constant throughout as shown in Fig. 4. The above discussion of CF4 illuminates a key reason for this behavior. The nearirreversibility of the CO2-induced warming after emissions cease and concentrations peak is linked mainly to a near balance between
concentration changes (which slowly decrease to a value that is about 40% of the peak of excess concentration above preindustrial,
see Fig. 4) and the fact that the ratio of quasi-equilibrium to transient warming is about 1.6 in this model (compare the range of about
1.32.3 across models in ref. 4). Thus the decrease in CO2 concentration is roughly compensated by the way that the transient
warming evolves to a near equilibrium warming (i.e., the warming is realized over time), together with a significant but lesser
contribution due to the nonlinear dependence of radiative forcing on CO2 concentration. These long-term changes in both CO2
concentration and warming are robust across a broad range of coupled carbon/ climate models (3, 4) and are both linked to the slow
timescales of transport in the ocean. For forcing agents shown in Fig. 4 with lifetimes of years to centuries, some forcing due to these
gases will continue even as concentrations decay, leading to some persistence of the induced warming. Fig. 4 illustrates the
persistence for HFC152a, CH4, and N2O, and Fig. S3 shows the behavior calculated in the Bern 2.5CC model for a range of
halocarbons with lifetimes ranging from years to centuries. An important qualitative conclusion of Fig. 4 is that the warming induced
by even a very shortlived gas such as HFC-152a can persist longer than the gas itself and its associated forcing (see also Figs. 3 and
4). The extent to which warming is prolonged is linked to the competition between decay of the radiative forcing and ocean heat
uptake and will also depend on the carbon cycle feedback; the carbon cycle feedback and ocean heat uptake will differ somewhat
among models. Persistence of the induced climate change should be expected to be larger for gases with lifetimes long enough to
transfer more heat to the ocean, i.e., several decades to centuries or more, and much smaller for gases with short lifetimes of a year
to a decade. Similarly, the persistence of the warming will be greater if radiative forcing is maintained over longer periods through
sustained anthropogenic emissions (17, 27); i.e., the longer humans continue to emit greenhouse gases, the longer the climate
memory of that emission will become, even for very short-lived substances, due to ocean thermal inertia (9). This paper focuses on
emissions over a century.
Page 10
Only adaptation solves extinction
Committee on Earth Science 7
[Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space, EARTH SCIENCE AND APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE: NATIONAL IMPERATIVES
FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND, National Academy of Sciences, 2007, p. 258-259.]
The growing emphasis on regional and higher-spatial-resolution predictions, on expansion of the family of forecasting products, and
on the role of multiple stresses in environmental-impact research is directly linked to the goal of realizing the full potential of climate
research to benefit society. The value of climate information to society depends on knowledge of the nature and strength of the
linkages between climate and human endeavors, on improved understanding of the uncertainties associated with forecasts or
predictions, on the accessibility of credible information, on knowledge of societal needs, and on the ability of users to respond to
information (NRC, 1999c, 2001b,d). Such research is in its infancy , but the demand for it will grow substantially. The potential societal
benefits are large. Even modest improvement in seasonal to interannual predictions has the potential for important societal benefits
The ability to characterize or

reduce uncertainties in climate change prediction is a critical element in supporting energy
and conservation policy related to global warming (NRC, 2001a). The ability to assess potential climate effects, and then to
define adaptation and mitigation strategies, depends both on improving the effectiveness of
climate modeling (NRC, 1998b, 2001c) and on implementing more comprehensive approaches to environmental study
in agriculture, energy, and management of weatherrelated risk (NRC, 1994, 1998a).
(NRC, 1999d). The first recommendation of the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts (National Assessment Synthesis
Team, 2000) calls for a more integrated approach to examining the impacts and vulnerabilities associated with multiple stresses
Changes in the volume of water

are of critical importance to coastal populations and infrastructure because of
the effects on sea level. Water resource management is strongly tied to climate and weather, and
adaptation strategies are expensive and often require decades to implement. Climate change research has
considerable potential to improve the anticipation of adverse health outcomes
(Figure 9.1). Several effects and vulnerabilities are particularly noteworthy.
stored on land as ice and snow
specifically related to heat mortality, changes in the pattern and character of vector-borne diseases, and air quality. Finally, climate
change research is a major factor in improving the ability to be better stewards of natural ecosystems. This vision recognizes that the
demand for knowledge of climate change and variability will intensify.
The objective is to
improve the ability to
anticipate the future and thus increase the capability to use the knowledge to limit adverse outcomes and maximize
benefits to society. Failure to obtain that knowledge carries high risks.
Page 11
Climate change makes mass migration inevitable
Moberg 09
[Kara K. Moberg, Student Researcher @ Climate Legacy Initiative Vermont Law School, J.D. Candidate, The University of Iowa College
of Law, March, 2009, Extending Refugee Definitions to Cover Environmentally Displaced Persons Displaces Necessary Protection ,
94 Iowa L. Rev. 1107, lexis]
It is clear that climate change and environmental
displacement due to such climate change is
occurring. As the Prime Minister of Tuvalu, Saufatu Sopoanga, stated at the Fifty-eighth Session of the U.N. General Assembly,
The threat [of severe weather events] is real and serious. The 0.7 degree increase in the average temperature of
the Earths surface since the late 1800s has already changed weather patterns, melted polar ice caps,
heightened the spread of human diseases, and declined crop yields. Already, earthquakes, hurricanes, floods,
and other natural disasters have displaced twenty-five million people. Ten percent of the worlds
population currently lives on coastal lands that are less than ten meters above sea level; thus, rising sea levels will
cause problems for hundreds of millions of people. Also, hundreds of millions of people depend on melting
snow and glaciers to supply water for irrigation. As these sources deplete, many people face forced
relocation. Due to the greenhouse gases already in our atmosphere, even without the emission of any additional greenhouse
gases, the temperature will continue to increase beyond the year 2100 , causing further depletion of our environment.
Page 12
Sudden displacement is coming- independently causes resource wars
Jacques 10
[Bahati Ntama Jacques, Policy Analyst @ Africa Faith and Social Justice Network, Originally published in the Jan-Feb edition of Around
Africa, 2/9/2010, Climate Change: What About the Displaced?, http://afjn.org/focus-campaigns/other/other-continental-issues/82general/792-climate-change-what-about-the-displaced.html, Accessed August 7th, 2014 | LWang]
Already, as a result of climate change, at least 18 islands have been submerged worldwide. These include
Lohachara Island in India, Bedford, Kabasgadi and Suparibhanga Island near India. Other islands are at risk of being submerged. They
include Bangladeshs Bhola Island, half of which is permanently flooded, Kutubdia in southeastern Bangladesh with thousands of
people already displaced and more to be displaced, in Shishmaref and Kivalini of Alaska, and Maldives, a state island in the Indian
Climate change -related disasters not only affect

ecosystems, but cause people to relocate either by choice or by force. Some will be displaced within the
boundaries of their affected countries (Internal Displacement or ID) and others will cross state borders. Some will be
displaced because of sudden-onset hydro-meteorological disasters , such as flooding, hurricanes,
landslides, etc. Others will be affected by slow-onset disasters, like desertification , rising sea levels
and droughts. Sea level rise will, in some cases, lead to permanent loss of small state islands, Maldives being an example,
Ocean whose President wishes to relocate the entire country.
which means permanent displacement of the inhabitants of the island. In high-risk zones authorities have to choose between the cost
as a result of
displacement, disputes over resources such as water and land will cause
violence. It is more than likely that some of the violence will end up in armed conflict.
of rebuilding every time a disaster hits or of just displacing the people permanently. Furthermore ,
Page 13
Resource wars go nuclear
Scheffran 9 [Jurgen Scheffran, Professor at the Institute of Geography of University of Hamburg, July 3, 2009, The Gathering
Storm: Is Climate Change a Security Threat?, Security Index, No. 2, Vol. 15, http://gees.org/files/documentation/doc_Documen03518.pdf]
In a 2003 paper, Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall sketched a dramatic scenario where abrupt climate change would change the
geopolitical environment and, as a consequence of the reduced availability of food, water and energy, lead up to major wars and the
spread of nuclear weapons: Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their coun tries, preserving
nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may
initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy.30 The study raises concerns that
with less energy supply nuclear energy will become a critical source of power, and this will accelerate nuclear
proliferation. The same authors, together with Nils Gilman, in a later study for the Global Business Network, conclude that
resources for themselves. Less fortunate
climate change poses unique challenges to U.S. national security and interests.31 The CNA Corporation, a U.S.based think tank, and
climate change as a
threat multiplier of insta bility, making already fragile regions more vulnerable to
tension, the spread of disease and conflicts over food and water.32 Such regions could become possible
breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism. The threat could affect Americans at home, impact U.S. military
the Military Advisory Board, a blueribbon panel of retired admirals and generals identified
operations and heighten global tensions. The report recommends to integrate climate change into U.S. national security strategy and
the National Intelligence Estimate to help stabilize cli mate change at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security
and stability. A report of the Washingtonbased Center for Strategic and International Studies, including for mer CIA director James
Woolsey and Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling, concluded that cli mate change has the potential to be one of the greatest national
security challenges that this or any other generation of policy makers is likely to confront.33 Global warming could desta bilize
virtually every aspect of modern life, and is likely to breed new conflicts and magnify existing problems. Even a
moderate
global average temperature rise of 1.3 C by 2040 could induce a multitude of national security implications, such as
the spread of disease, largescale migrations, heightened tensions; and resource conflicts. More severe climate change with a
induce massive nonlinear societal events and armed conflict between

nations over resources; even nuclear war. The catastrophic scenario (tem perature rise of 5.6 C by
temperature rise of 2.6 C by 2040 could
2100), would pose almost inconceivable challenges for human soci ety on a global scale.34 A comprehensive assessment of the
security risks of climate change has been prepared in a report by the German Advisory Council on Global Change. The consequences
could well trig ger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state
failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence. On the contrary, climate change could also unite the international community
to set the course for avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system by adopting a dynamic and globally
coordinated climate policy.35 The initially mentioned European Commission report also refers to climate change as a threat
multiplier, identifying political and security risks which would directly affect European inter ests. These include resource conflicts and
tension over energy supply; economic damage and risk to coastal cities and critical infrastructure; loss of territory, border disputes
and environ mentallyinduced migration. Altogether these factors could create situations of fragility and radicalization, and increase
the pressure on international governance.36
Page 14
Migration flows make conflict inevitable- adaptation key
Atapattu 08
[Sumudu Atapattu, Associate Director, Global Legal Studies Center, University of Wisconsin Law School, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of
Law, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka, Fall, 2008, Global Climate Change: Can Human Rights (and Human Beings) Survive this
Onslaught?, Colorado Journal of International Environmental Law and Policy, 20 COLO. J. INT'L ENVTL. L. & POL'Y 35, lexis]
While environmental stress has rarely been the sole cause of conflicts in and between states, the intrinsic link between access to
resources - particularly water - and conflict is increasingly recognized. Global climate change will exacerbate this
problem . Faced with increased temperatures, erosion, desertification, deforestation, flooding, rising sea levels, forest fires, loss of
species, and increased incidence of disease, environmental stress may well become the main cause of conflict
in the coming years. While wars and conflicts have forced many people to abandon their homes and flee to relatively safe areas, we
are now faced with a situation where people may flee their homes for environmental reasons. People who do so have been termed
"environmental refugees," and it is estimated that in 1984-1985 some ten million Africans fled their homes due to reasons connected
with environmental degradation. 121 Many of these refugees moved across national boundaries thereby increasing tension in the
receiving countries can barely cope with their own problems and
when more people seek access to quickly dwindling resources, conflicts are bound to
increase .The World Commission on Environment and Development ("WCED") described the relationship between environmental
receiving countries. Most
degradation and conflict as follows: As unsustainable forms of development push individual countries up against environmental limits,
major differences in environmental endowment among countries, or
variations in stocks of usable land and
raw materials, could precipitate and exacerbate international tension and conflict. And competition for
use of the global commons, such as ocean fisheries and Antarctica, or for use of more localized common resources in fixed supply,
such as rivers and coastal waters, could escalate to the level of international conflict and so threaten international peace and security.
122 If one also considers the inherent injustices in developing countries, prevailing extreme socioeconomic inequality, and corruption
and [*62] poverty, the situation becomes bleak indeed. The WCED recognized the link between global warming and conflict as
follows: Environmental threats to security are now beginning to emerge on a global scale. The most worrisome of these stem from the
possible consequences of global warming... Any such climatic change would quite probably be unequal in its effects,
disrupting agricultural systems in areas that provide a large proportion of the world's cereal harvests and
perhaps triggering mass population movements in areas where hunger is already endemic .
Sea levels may rise during the first half of the next century enough to radically change the boundaries between
coastal nations and to change the shapes and strategic importance of international waterways - effects both likely to increase
international tension. The climatic and sea-level change are also likely to disrupt the breeding grounds of economically
important fish species. Slowing, or adapting to, global warming is becoming an essential task to reduce
the risks of conflict.
Page 15
Population migrations fuel political instability- escalate to nuclear war
Kaku 11
[Michio Kaku, co-creator of string field theory, a branch of string theory. He received a B.S. (summa cum laude) from
Harvard University in 1968 where he came first in his physics class. He went on to the Berkeley Radiation Laboratory at the University
of California, Berkeley and received a Ph.D. in 1972. In 1973, he held a lectureship at Princeton University. Michio continues Einsteins
search for a Theory of Everything, seeking to unify the four fundamental forces of the universethe strong force, the weak force,
gravity and electromagnetism. He is the author of several scholarly, Ph.D. level textbooks and has had more than 70 articles
published in physics journals, covering topics such as superstring theory, supergravity, supersymmetry, and hadronic physics.
Professor of Physics He holds the Henry Semat Chair and Professorship in theoretical physics at the City College of New York, where
he has taught for over 25 years. He has also been a visiting professor at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, as well as New
York University (NYU). Physics of the Future http://213.55.83.52/ebooks/physics/Physics%20of%20the%20Future.pdf ]
**We disagree with the authors use of gendered language

The predicted spike fits the actual spike perfectly. Lastly, one can measure the amount of sunlight that lands on every square foot of
the earths surface. Scientists can also calculate the amount of heat that is reflected into outer space from the earth. Normally, we
expect these two amounts to be equal, with input equaling output. But in reality, we find the net amount of energy that is currently
heating the earth. Then if we calculate the amount of energy being produced by human activity, we find a perfect match. Hence,
human activity is causing the current heating of the earth. Unfortunately, even if we were to suddenly stop producing any carbon
dioxide, the gas that has already been released into the atmosphere is enough to continue global warming for decades to come. As a
result, by midcentury, the situation could be dire. Scientists have created pictures of what our coastal cities will look like at
midcentury and beyond if sea levels continue to rise. Coastal cities may disappear. Large parts of Manhattan may have to be
evacuated, with Wall Street underwater. Governments will have to decide which of their great cities and capitals are worth saving and
cities may
vanish under the ocean, creating mass migrations of people.
Since most of the commercial and population centers of the world are next to
the ocean, this could have a disastrous effect on the world economy. Even if some cities can be salvaged, there is still the
which are beyond hope. Some cities may be saved via a combination of sophisticated dikes and water gates. Other
be deemed hopeless and allowed to
danger that large storms can send surges of water into a city, paralyzing its infrastructure. For example, in 1992 a huge storm surge
flooded Manhattan, paralyzing the subway system and trains to New Jersey. With transportation flooded, the economy grinds to a
halt. FLOODING BANGLADESH AND VIETNAM A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change isolated three hot spots for
potential disaster: Bangladesh, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, and the Nile Delta in Egypt. The worst situation is that of Bangladesh, a
country regularly flooded by storms even without global warming. Most of the country is flat and at sea level. Although it has made
significant gains in the last few decades, it is still one of the poorest nations on earth, with one of the highest population densities. (It
has a population of 161 million, comparable to that of Russia, but with 1/120 of the land area.) About 50 percent of the land area will
be permanently flooded if sea levels rise by three feet. Natural calamities occur there almost every year, but in September 1998, the
world witnessed in horror a preview of what may become commonplace. Massive flooding submerged two-thirds of the nation, leaving
30 million people homeless almost overnight; 1,000 were killed, and 6,000 miles of roads were destroyed. This was one of the worst
natural disasters in modern history. Another country that would be devastated by a rise in sea level is Vietnam, where the Mekong
Delta is particularly vulnerable. By midcentury, this country of 87 million people could face a collapse of its main food-growing area.
Half the rice in Vietnam is grown in the Mekong Delta, home to 17 million people, and much of it will be flooded permanently by rising
sea levels. According to the World Bank, 11 percent of the entire population would be displaced if sea levels rise by three feet by
midcentury. The Mekong Delta will also be flooded with salt water, permanently destroying the fertile soil of the area. If millions are
flooded out of their homes in Vietnam, many will flock to Ho Chi Minh City seeking refuge. But one-fourth of the city will also be
underwater. In 2003 the Pentagon commissioned a study, done by the Global Business Network, that showed that, in a worst-case
chaos could spread around the world due to global warming. As millions of refugees cross
national borders, governments could lose all authority and collapse, so countries could
descend into the nightmare of looting, rioting, and chaos. In this desperate situation, nations, when faced with the
prospect of the influx of millions of desperate people, may resort to nuclear weapons. Envision
Pakistan, India, and Chinaall armed with nuclear weaponsskirmishing at their
borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable land, the report said. Peter Schwartz, founder
scenario,
of the Global Business Network and a principal author of the Pentagon study, confided to me the details of this scenario. He told me
that the biggest hot spot would be the border between India and Bangladesh. In a major crisis in Bangladesh, up to 160 million people
could be driven out of their homes, sparking one of the greatest migrations in human history. Tensions could rapidly rise as borders
collapse, local governments are paralyzed, and mass rioting breaks out. Schwartz sees that nations may use nuclear weapons as a
last resort. In a worst-case scenario, we could have a greenhouse effect that feeds on itself. For example, the melting of the tundra in
the Arctic regions may release millions of tons of methane gas from rotting vegetation. Tundra covers nearly 9 million square miles of
land in the Northern Hemisphere, containing vegetation frozen since the last Ice Age tens of thousands of years ago. This tundra
contains more carbon dioxide and methane than the atmosphere, and this poses an enormous threat to the worlds weather. Methane
Page 16

gas, moreover, is a much deadlier greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. It does not stay in the atmosphere as long, but it causes
much more damage than carbon dioxide. The release of so much methane gas from the melting tundra could cause temperatures to
rapidly rise, which will cause even more methane gas to be released, causing a runaway cycle of global warming.
Page 17
Arctic Advantage
Contention 3 is the arctic
Ocean uncertainty in the arctic makes fish management impossible
Jeffers 10 [Jennifer Jeffers, associate in Morrison & Foerster LLP, Land Use and Environmental Law Practice Group, J.D. from UC
Berkeley, MS from Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at Berkeley, Ellis J. Harmon Prize for legal writing in
environmental law and policy, Prosser Prize for scholastic excellence in Ocean Law and Policy, 2010, Climate Change and the Arctic:
Adapting to Changes in Fisheries Stocks and Governance Regimes, Ecology Law Quarterly]
Uncertainty plays a major role in attempting to clarify how fish populations will respond to climate change. Is it possi-ble to reduce
uncertainty on a useful time scale at a reasonable cost? Moreover, does uncertainty make it easier or more difficult to work out
effective governance regimes and fisheries management arrangements in the present? There are three major types of uncertainties
inherent in the Arctic system with respect to defining climate change impacts pertinent to this Note. n108 The first type of
uncertainty revolves around the study of historical changes in fish biology and ecosystem resili-ence
throughout the
Arctic region due to previous climatic fluctuations. This is due to the scale and extent of overfish-ing and exploitation over
past centuries, which have altered both the fisheries themselves and marine ecosystems as a whole. It may be possible to use past
variations in climate and effects on fisheries populations as a model for how to manage and prepare for future climate change
impacts on Arctic fisheries. However ,
it is unclear whether fish stocks , and even particular species, will

respond to future climatic changes in the same way they have in the past . It is also important to
note that fishing pressure and exploitation "have a strong potential to alter ... [and] modify the outcome of climate-induced changes."
n109 Thus, it is difficult to determine whether historical fishery collapses were due primarily to over-exploitation, or whether
environmental change also played a defining role. n110 A second source of uncertainty concerns future climate change effects.
Climatic variability causes seasonal alterations in the location of the most productive fishing grounds and leads to "changes in
uncertainty creates great

difficulty for scientists suggesting or developing management regimes for fisheries exploitation. As
a result, projections of climate change impacts on marine systems have been based largely on
scientific predictive models, especially with regard to potential changes in ther-mohaline circulation. n112
However, modeling is difficult to replicate and presents difficulties when trying to project changes in climate. For instance,
"current climate models do not include scenarios for ocean temperatures, watermass
mixing, upwelling, or other relevant ocean variables " either on a global or regional basis. n113 Fish
abundance and catchability that are as-yet imperfectly understood ." n111 This
stocks depend on these variables for survival , so the models' uncertainty is a key
factor in future projections; indeed, these numerous inter-dependent factors, lumped together in the models as an
"uncertainty," will determine much of the extent and severity of future fisheries changes. Another difficulty in determining future
climate change effects arises because Arctic species belong to many dis-tinct ecosystems, and it is unclear how the interaction and
dynamics between these systems will play out in the future. Fisheries management scientists agree that harvesting is just one of
many variables that affect fish stocks, and often not even the most significant one. "Changes in natural conditions, especially water
temperature and salinity, can often have a considerable impact; and the same goes for much discussed but little understood
interrelationships between various components in marine ecosystems." n114 The third type of uncertainty lies in accurately
predicting social, economic, and political responses to potential fish stock changes. This specific component of uncertainty is
discussed in more detail in Part III of this Note, Climate Change and Fisheries Management. A tangible example of how various
scientific uncertainties may play out in reality is best exemplified by the North-east Atlantic geographic analysis below. The
examination is a prime example of how changes in fish stock distribution, abundance, and migrations will significantly affect state
fishery industries, and highlights the extent to which numerous factors interrelate to determine the final outcome of climate change
effects.
Page 18
Arctic Advantage
That makes arctic war inevitable- monitoring is key- deterrence fails
Holtsmark 9 [Sven G. Holtsmark, Deputy Director at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, 2-09, [towards
cooperation or confrontation? Security in the High North, Research Division - NATO Defense College, Rome - No. 45 February 2009,
http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/Files/RESSpecNet/97586/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/B97C0503-C2E1-40D2-A4E8-E4EC
E0FC0DA1/en/rp_45en.pdf]
.
There is little reason to believe that this attitude will change in the foreseeable future, despite regional measures of confidence building and a hopefully positive trend in the
overall NATO-Russia relationship. However, NATO is at the core of the defence and security strategies of all the other Arctic Ocean states. For this simple reason, NATO cannot
avoid defining its role in the area. The challenge will be to devise policies that recognise Russian concerns, while at the same time securing fundamental Western security
interests. For this very reason, in the Arctic as elsewhere NATO has no other choice than to make every effort to engage in political and military confidence building and
cooperative ventures with Russia to supplement bilateral or regional arrangements. Most of these will have a non-Article 5 character. Apart from locally well-established arenas
such as marine search and rescue operations, bilateral information exchange and courtesy visits,56one approach may be to jointly identify and develop common security interests
outside the traditional hard security realm.57Various security and safety challenges related to Arctic SLOCs seem to offer a wide field of areas of mutually beneficial cooperation
based on common interests, including surveillance and patrolling. Russias active participation in Operation Active Endeavour (OAE) in the Mediterranean, even more so as this is
an Article 5 operation, might serve as a reference point. NATO and the West should actively search for arenas of cooperation in which shared perceptions may prove stronger than
disagreements or perceived values gaps on other issues.58 Turning to NATOs less inviting side, i.e. the Alliances commitment to collective defence, the Alliances closely
Should deterrence fail, the Alliance must prepare for crisis

management and, ultimately, participation in armed conflict. This will not necessarily mean a radical departure from existing
patterns. NATO as such is present in the High North today, for instance, through the NATO Integrated Air Defence System (NATINADS),
including fighters on Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) and regular AWACS airborne early warning flights, and exercises in Norway and
intertwined core functions in the Arctic remain surveillance and intelligence, and deterrence.
surveillance and intelligence is to create a basis for adequate situational

awareness, a key factor in the maintenance of regional stability. This starts with the elaboration of framework
Iceland. The aim of
analyses of regional developments over a wide spectrum of security-related issues, and ends up with real time surveillance of the
movements of civilian and military activities. As mentioned above, some of these tasks may present areas for cooperation with
Russia. In other areas it should be explored to what degree Allied resources, such as maritime and aerial surveillance and patrolling,
may be further developed to supplement efforts by the Arctic states themselves. The same applies to intelligence. Deterrence works
only if it has credibility based on visible substance. It must be designed on the basis of conceivable conflict scenarios, and it must
include documented and credible contingency planning for the management of crises that escalate to the use or the threat of use of
military force. It must also include a material basis in the form of a combination of national and NATO (integrated and pooled) military
capabilities that, taken together, cover the entire range of military peace time activities and crisis management tasks. Here, as
elsewhere, cooperation and coordination between Allied countries is of primary importance. Looking at the conflict potential inherent
in the region, it seems highly unlikely that any of the Arctic Ocean states would risk large-scale interstate military conflict to press for
their preferred solution to regional conflicts of interest. The likely material and political costs would by far outweigh any conceivable
gains. This, however, does not rule out the possibility
that loca lized episodes may inadvertently
develop into armed clashes despite the original intentions of the parties involved . Neither does it rule out the
possibility that one state actor in the region may consider the use of limited military force based on a firm conviction that the other
side will not escalate the conflict into major confrontation. Existing
asymmetries of strength may increase
the temptation for this option . Finally, it may be argued that the growing strategic attention to the region makes the High
North more vulnerable to the effect of events in other parts of the world. It cannot be excluded that armed aggression in the High
North may be launched in continuation of a major crisis somewhere else. The challenge may be summarized as maintaining a military
presence that is sufficient to act as a stabilizing factor in conceivable crisis scenarios but without undermining stability through
provoking short-term and long-term countermeasures and the ensuing escalation of general tension. A clear line must be drawn
between a model of deterrence in the Arctic as suggested in this paper and the sort of presence and posture NATO and the West
maintained during the cold war.59NATO and the West must leave no doubt that the use of military force in inter-state disputes in the
Arctic will be considered only as a last resort of self defence. This balancing applies to national military forces, but even more to forms
of multilateral efforts under the umbrella of NATO or other multinational organizations. A low-key approach in times of tranquillity
must be paralleled by demonstrations that national and NATO contingency planning include updated scenarios for the collective
handling of a wide range of crisis and conflict in the Arctic. In practical terms, the credibility of declarations of collective solidarity
should be reinforced by an appropriate mixture of NATO-led military exercises, the proper preparation of designated military units, a
continuous critical look at the adequacy of existing structures for command and control, and other peace time preparations.60The
residual risk that conflicts elsewhere may lead to armed confrontation in the Arctic implies that force levels and postures should
Even if military deterrence

may be effective in preventing the premeditated use of military force, it may prove unable to
forestall the occurrence of episodes that, unintended by any of the parties, may escalate into the use
of force. In the short and medium term, the potential for local crisis escalation in the Arctic
Ocean region is linked to fisheries management in disputed areas rather than to
conflicting claims to petroleum resources. For instance, Russian trawlers take twenty five per cent of
their Arctic Ocean catch in the Fisheries Protection Zone around Svalbard, where Russia and other states
dispute Norways sovereign rights to resources management. The Norwegian Coast Guard
appear adequate in comparison with the strength of non-NATO forces in the region.
Page 19

regularly patrols and conducts inspections in the area. However, on more than one occasion Russia has also sent naval vessels to the
Fisheries Protection Zone for inspection purposes. It must be emphasized that all parties with an interest in the area tend to
acquiesce to the terms of Norwegian jurisdiction and control. This example brings us back to the core importance of national and
local conflicts over resources management, including fishing rights,

that escalate to a military level . Such plans must be closely coordinated with the Arctic NATO member states
Allied contingency planning for the handling of
national defence and security policies. Moreover, they must include robust procedures for escalation control; procedures that must
involve close cooperation with national governments and NATO organs. Some of the conceivable conflict scenarios will involve parties
of strikingly different orders of strength, which emphasizes the challenge of calibrating the call for Allied support against the danger
of large-scale escalation. As one important element of both general deterrence and crisis management, national governments and
NATO need to consider to what degree the regular presence of Allied forces in High North waters may reduce the provocative effect of
requesting Allied support in a crisis situation.
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Arctic Advantage
Satellite info key
National Research Council 7 [Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space, EARTH SCIENCE AND
APPLICATIONS FROM SPACE: NATIONAL IMPERATIVES FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND, 2007, p. 193-194.]
Ecosystem changes due to climate change and human modification of the landscape and ocean
are occurring in many parts of the world, notably in coastal zones where much of the worlds population lives, at high
latitudes where climate change is lengthening the growing season, and in tropical forests, which are undergoing massive conversions
for agricultural expansion and timber extraction. Even the vast, remote
open ocean is experiencing
large
reductions in fish stocks because of harvesting . With accelerating changes in climate, land-use, and oceans over
the coming decades, management of ecosystems to enhance and maintain provision of food, water, and other
essential services for society is a critical challenge (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). The ability to manage
ecosystems rests on a scientific understanding of their role in the Earth system . Models suggest that changes in terrestrial and
marine ecosystems accelerate the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere and hence global warming. But models disagree about the
response of primary productivity to the competing or synergistic effects of temperature and moisture (e.g., Cox et al., 2000; Fung et
al., 2005; Friedlingstein et al., 2006). Moreover, the continuing ability of the ocean to take up CO2 is in question as a result of shifts in
ocean circulation and temperature and in ecosystem response. Disturbances
and modification of the land surface and the ocean,
natural or anthropogenic, are likely to further modify ecosystems and hence the carbon-climate system beyond what the models
project. Such changes may also increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to changing climate , moving ecosystems closer to
challenges posed
by changing climate, land-use, air quality, invasive species, harmful algal blooms, and a host of other factors call
for satellite capabilities that enhance our understanding of fundamental
earth system processes and enable effective ecosystem management . The
thresholds beyond which there is no recovery and reducing their capacity to support life . In summary,
panels identified set of five high-priority satellite missions, in combination with continuation of the long-term record and other
supporting observations from missions recommended by other panels, will enable scientific progress and improved management of
ecosystems.
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Arctic Advantage
The arctic is on the brink
Dingman 14 [Erica Dingman, Associate Fellow at the World Policy Institue, where her research focuses on the Arctic, January
17, 2014, Arctic Rhetoric http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2014/01/17/arctic-rhetoric, ABirenbaum]
Despite ongoing cooperation between Arctic nations Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, and
the United States mainstream rhetoric often implies
Arctic stakeholders are teetering on the brink
of conflict . To a great extent, this sentiment is reflected in mass media and political banter,
inflaming the passions of audiences. This is true, not only in the U.S. but also elsewhere, evidenced in the mass
media reporting of other Arctic nations and beyond. Consider, for instance, the impact of headlines pronouncing a
New Cold War or a Rush for Riches, headlines not uncommon in U.S. media. Some reactions may be visceral
insidiously implanting notions of fear, lust, or chaos into the very core of society. Similarly, political banter suggesting belligerent
rivalries reminiscent of bygone years may well influence public opinion to the detriment of strengthened Arctic relations. A case in
point occurred in December 2013 when Canada submitted its claim to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental
Shelf (UNCLOS), verbally asserting Canadas bond to the North Pole. However, the Canadian government submitted only preliminary
information on its Arctic, excluding the crucial scientific evidence that would substantiate such a pronouncement. The rules and laws
for determining validity of a claimants submission are orderly and well defined. Under UNCLOS, all
rights to
and
coastal states have
the waters and seabed beyond the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone, including resources such as oil, gas,
fish , if they can demonstrate that their continental shelf extends beyond this point. Based on an underwater mass, the
Lomonosov Ridge, both Russias and Denmarks (via Greenland) submitted claims to UNCLOS include scientific evidence that
conceivably links each nation to the North Pole. It is expected that Canadas next submission will be similar. In Canada, however, this
omission began a waterfall of political debate played out in mass media both in Canada and elsewhere. On December 9, 2013, the
day Parliament released the data to UNCLOS, Canadas Foreign Minister John Baird, accompanied by the Environmental Minister and
Arctic Council Chair Leona Aglukkaq, stood in the foyer of the House of Commons. He assured the public that additional scientific data
submitted to UNCLOS would show that the full extent of the continental shelf in the Arctic includes Canadas claim to the North
Pole. The following day, conservative MP Paul Calandra accused the Liberal opposition of abandoning Santa Claus, suggesting that
Santas workshop at the North Pole will fall into the hands of foreign interests. All of a sudden the Liberals are suggesting that Santa
Claus is no longer Canadian and that they would abandon the North Pole and abandon Santa Claus, said Calandra. Liberal leader
Justin Trudeau replied he would defer questions of North Pole claims to scientists and oceanographers. On the heels of this
Canadian banter, President Putins response was indirect but nevertheless determined to publically defend Russias Arctic presence.
Putin asserted: "I would like you to

devote special attention to deploying infrastructure and military units in the Arctic." Recent events in
December 2013 suggest the Arctic will be swept up in a vortex of militarization and
territorial disputes, in a rush for Arctic riches and shipping opportunities.
At a televised meeting of the Defence Ministry Board in Moscow on December 10,
Page 22
Arctic Advantage
Those wars go nuclear- specifically between U.S. and Russia
Wallace, 10 [Professor Emeritus at the University of British Columbia, March, Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons A Task
Long Overdue, http://www.arcticsecurity.org/docs/arctic-nuclear-report-web.pdf]
The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition. Russian President Medvedev has announced the creation of a
special military force to defend Arctic claims. Last year Russian General Vladimir Shamanov declared that Russian troops would step up training for Arctic combat, and
that Russias submarine fleet would increase its operational radius. Recently, two Russian attack submarines were spotted off the U.S. east coast for the first time in
15 years. In January 2009, on the eve of Obamas inauguration, President Bush issued a National Security Presidential Directive on Arctic Regional Policy. It affirmed
as a priority the preservation of U.S. military vessel and aircraft mobility and transit throughout the Arctic, including the Northwest Passage, and foresaw greater
capabilities to protect U.S. borders in the Arctic. The Bush administrations disastrous eight years in office, particularly its decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty
and deploy missile defence interceptors and a radar station in Eastern Europe, have greatly contributed to the instability we are seeing today, even though the Obama
administration has scaled back the planned deployments. The Arctic has figured in this renewed interest in Cold War weapons systems, particularly the upgrading of the
Thule Ballistic Missile Early Warning System radar in Northern Greenland for ballistic missile defence. The Canadian government, as well, has put forward new
military capabilities to protect Canadian sovereignty claims in the Arctic, including proposed ice-capable ships, a northern military training base and a deep-water port.
Earlier this year Denmark released an all-party defence position paper that suggests the country should create a dedicated Arctic military contingent that draws on army,
navy and air force assets with shipbased helicopters able to drop troops anywhere. Danish fighter planes would be tasked to patrol Greenlandic airspace. Last year
Norway chose to buy 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, partly because of their suitability for Arctic patrols. In March, that country held a major Arctic military
practice involving 7,000 soldiers from 13 countries in which a fictional country called Northland seized offshore oil rigs. The manoeuvres prompted a protest from
Russia which objected again in June after Sweden held its largest northern military exercise since the end of the Second World War. About 12,000 troops, 50 aircraft
and several warships were involved. Jayantha Dhanapala, President of Pugwash and former UN under-secretary for disarmament affairs, summarized the situation
the United
States and the Russian Federation, which together own 95 per cent of the nuclear weapons in the world converge on
the Arctic and have competing claims. These claims, together with those of other allied NATO countries Canada, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway
could, if unresolved, lead to conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons. Many will no doubt argue that this is
excessively alarmist, but no circumstance in which nuclear powers find themselves in military confrontation can be taken lightly . The current geo-political threat level
is nebulous and low for now, according to Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary, [ the] issue is the uncertainty as Arctic states and non-Arctic states
bluntly: From those in the international peace and security sector, deep concerns are being expressed over the fact that two nuclear weapon states
begin to recognize the geo-political/economic significance of the Arctic because of climate change.
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Arctic Advantage
U.S. Russia war is an existential risk- this answers their defense
Starr 14 [Steven Starr, Senior Scientist for Physicians for Social Responsibility (www.psr.org) and Director of the Clinical
Laboratory Science Program at the University of Missouri, June 05, 2014, The Lethality of Nuclear Weapons: Nuclear War has No
Winner http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-lethality-of-nuclear-weapons-nuclear-war-has-no-winner/5385611, ABirenbaum]
Paul Craig Roberts held top security clearances. He has repeatedly warned that a US-Russian nuclear war would wipe out the human
race, along with all other complex forms of life. As a scientist with expert knowledge, I wish to echo and explain his warning. Nuclear
war has no winner. Beginning in 2006, several of the worlds leading climatologists (at Rutgers, UCLA, John Hopkins University, and
the University of Colorado-Boulder) published a series of studies that evaluated the long-term environmental consequences of a
nuclear war, including baseline scenarios fought with merely 1% of the explosive power in the US and/or Russian launch-ready
nuclear arsenals. They concluded that the consequences of even a small nuclear war would include catastrophic disruptions of
global climate[i] and massive destruction of Earths protective ozone layer[ii]. These and more recent studies predict that global
agriculture would be so negatively affected by such a war, a global famine would result, which would cause up to 2 billion people to
starve to death. [iii] These peer-reviewed studies which were analyzed by the best scientists in the world and found to be without
error also predict that a war fought with
less than half of US or Russian strategic nuclear
weapons would destroy the human race .[iv] In other words, a US-Russian nuclear war would create such extreme longterm damage to the global environment that it would leave the Earth uninhabitable for humans and most animal
forms of life. A recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war,
[v] begins by stating: A nuclear war between Russia and the United States, even after the arsenal reductions planned under New
START, could produce a nuclear winter. Hence, an attack by either side could be suicidal , resulting in selfassured destruction. In 2009, I wrote an article[vi] for the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament
that summarizes the findings of these studies. It explains that nuclear firestorms would produce millions of tons of smoke, which
would rise above cloud level and form a global stratospheric smoke layer that would rapidly encircle the Earth. The smoke layer would
remain for at least a decade, and it would act to destroy the protective ozone layer (vastly increasing the UVB reaching Earth[vii]) as well as block warming sunlight, thus creating Ice Age weather conditions that would last 10 years or longer.
Following a US-Russian nuclear war,
temperatures in the central US and Eurasia would fall below freezing
every day for one to three years; the intense cold would completely eliminate growing seasons for a decade or longer. No
crops could be grown, leading to a famine that would kill most humans and large animal populations. Electromagnetic
pulse from high-altitude nuclear detonations would destroy the integrated circuits in all modern electronic devices[viii], including
those in commercial nuclear power plants. Every nuclear reactor would almost instantly meltdown; every nuclear spent fuel pool
(which contain many times more radioactivity than found in the reactors) would boil-off, releasing vast amounts of long-lived
radioactivity. The fallout would make most of the US and Europe uninhabitable. Of course, the survivors of the nuclear war would be
starving to death anyway. Once nuclear weapons were introduced into a US-Russian conflict, there would be little chance that a
Theories of limited nuclear war and nuclear deescalation are unrealistic.[ix] In 2002 the Bush administration modified US strategic doctrine from a retaliatory
nuclear holocaust could be avoided.
role to permit preemptive nuclear attack; in 2010, the Obama administration made only incremental and miniscule changes to this
doctrine, leaving it essentially unchanged. Furthermore, Counterforce doctrine used by both the US and Russian military
Both sides would be under immense

pressure to launch a preemptive nuclear first-strike once military hostilities
had commenced, especially if nuclear weapons had already been used on the battlefield. Both the US and Russia each
emphasizes the need for preemptive strikes once nuclear war begins.
have 400 to 500 launch-ready ballistic missiles armed with a total of at least 1800 strategic nuclear warheads,[xi] which can be
launched with only a few minutes warning.[xii] Both the US and Russian Presidents are accompanied 24/7 by military officers carrying
a nuclear briefcase, which allows them to transmit the permission order to launch in a matter of seconds. Yet top political leaders
and policymakers of both the US and Russia seem to be unaware that their launch-ready nuclear weapons represent a self-destruct
mechanism for the human race. For example, in 2010, I was able to publicly question the chief negotiators of the New START treaty,
Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov and (then) US Assistant Secretary of State, Rose Gottemoeller, during their joint briefing at the
UN (during the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference). I asked them if they were familiar with the recent peer-reviewed studies
that predicted the detonation of less than 1% of the explosive power contained in the operational and deployed U.S. and Russian
nuclear forces would cause catastrophic changes in the global climate, and that a nuclear war fought with their strategic nuclear
weapons would kill most people on Earth. They both answered no. More recently, on April 20, 2014, I asked the same question and
received the same answer from the US officials sent to brief representatives of the NGOS at the Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory
Committee meeting at the UN. None of the US officials at the briefing were aware of the studies. Those present included top officials
of the National Security Council. It is frightening that President Obama and his administration appear unaware that the worlds
leading scientists have for years predicted that a nuclear war fought with the US and/or Russian strategic nuclear arsenal means the
end of human history. Do they not know of the existential threat these arsenals pose to the human race . . . or do they choose to
remain silent because this fact doesnt fit into their official narratives? We hear only about terrorist threats that could destroy a city
Page 24

with an atomic bomb, while the threat of human extinction from nuclear war is never mentioned even when the US and Russia are
each running huge nuclear war games in preparation for a US-Russian war. Even more frightening is the fact that the
neocons
running US foreign policy believe that the US has nuclear primacy over Russia; that is, the US could successfully
launch a nuclear sneak attack against Russian (and Chinese) nuclear forces and completely destroy them. This theory was articulated
in 2006 in The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy, which was published in Foreign Affairs by the Council on Foreign Relations.[xiii] By
concluding that the Russians and Chinese would be unable to retaliate, or if some small part of their forces remained, would not risk a
second US attack by retaliating, the article invites nuclear war. Colonel Valery Yarynich (who was in charge of security of the
Soviet/Russian nuclear command and control systems for 7 years) asked me to help him write a rebuttal, which was titled Nuclear
Primacy is a Fallacy.[xiv] Colonel Yarynich, who was on the Soviet General Staff and did war planning for the USSR, concluded that
the Primacy article used faulty methodology and erroneous assumptions, thus invalidating its conclusions. My contribution lay in my
knowledge of the recently published (in 2006) studies, which predicted even a successful nuclear first-strike, which destroyed 100%
of the opposing sides nuclear weapons, would cause the citizens of the side that won the nuclear war to perish from nuclear famine,
just as would the rest of humanity. Although the nuclear primacy article created quite a backlash in Russia, leading to a public speech
by the Russian Foreign Minister, the story was essentially not covered in the US press. We were unable to get our rebuttal published
by US media. The question remains as to whether the US nuclear primacy asserted in the article has been accepted as a fact by the
US political and military establishment. Such acceptance would explain the recklessness of US policy toward Russia and China. Thus
we find ourselves in a situation in which those who are in charge of our nuclear arsenal seem not to understand that they can end
human history if they choose to push the button. Most of the American public also remains completely unaware of this deadly threat.
The uninformed are leading the uninformed toward the abyss of extinction. US public schools have not taught students about nuclear
weapons for more than 20 years. The last time nuclear war was discussed or debated in a US Presidential election was sometime in
the last century. Thus, most people do not know that a single strategic nuclear weapon can easily ignite a massive firestorm over 100
square miles, and that the US and Russia each have many thousands of these weapons ready for immediate use. Meanwhile,
neoconservative ideology has kept the US at war during the entire 21st century. It has led to the expansion of US/NATO forces to the
very borders of Russia, a huge mistake that has consequently revived the Cold War. A hallmark of neconservatism is that America is
the indispensable nation, as evidenced by the neoconservative belief in American exceptionalism, which essentially
asserts
that Americans are superior to all other peoples, that American interests and values should reign supreme in the
world. At his West Point speech on May 28, President Obama said, I believe in American exceptionalism with every fiber of my
being. Obama stated his bottom line is that America must always lead on the world stage, and the backbone of that leadership
always will be the military. American exceptionalism based on might, not diplomacy, on hard power, not soft, is precisely the hubris
and arrogance that could lead to the termination of human life. Washingtons determination to prevent the rise of Russia and China,
as set out in the Brzezinski and Wolfowitz doctrines,
is a recipe for nuclear war.
Page 25
Arctic Advantage
100 million die in first 30 minutes- arsenals are on hair trigger alert
Helfand and Pastore 09 [Ira Helfand, M.D., and John O. Pastore, M.D., are past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility., Ira Helfand/John
Pastore: U.S.-Russia nuclear war still a threat, Projo.com ,http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31 09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html,
2009 SUZman]
President Obama and Russian President Dimitri Medvedev are scheduled to Wednesday in London during the G-20 summit. They must not let the current economic
crisis keep them from focusing on one of the greatest threats confronting humanity: the danger of nuclear war. Since the end of the Cold War, many have acted as
though the danger of nuclear war has ended. It has not. There remain in the world more than 20,000 nuclear weapons. Alarmingly, more than 2,000 of these
weapons in the U.S. and Russian
arsenals remain on ready-alert status, commonly known as hair-trigger alert. They can be
fired within five minutes and reach targets in the other country 30 minutes later. Just one of these weapons can destroy a city. A war involving a
substantial number would cause devastation on a scale unprecedented in human history. A study conducted by Physicians for Social Responsibility in 2002 showed
that if only 500 of the Russian weapons on high alert exploded over our cities, 100
million Americans would die in the first 30
minutes.
An attack of this magnitude also would destroy the entire economic, communications and transportation infrastructure on which we all depend.
Those who survived the initial attack would inhabit a nightmare landscape with huge swaths of the country blanketed with radioactive fallout and epidemic diseases
rampant. They would have no food, no fuel, no electricity, no medicine, and certainly no organized health care. In the following months it is likely the vast majority
of the U.S. population would die. Recent studies by the eminent climatologists Toon and Robock have shown that such a war would have a huge and immediate
impact on climate world wide. If all of the warheads in the U.S. and Russian strategic arsenals were drawn into the conflict, the firestorms they caused would loft
180 million tons of soot and debris into the upper atmosphere blotting out the sun. Temperatures across the globe would fall an average of 18 degrees Fahrenheit
to levels not seen on earth since the depth of the last ice age, 18,000 years ago. Agriculture would stop, eco-systems would collapse, and many species,
including perhaps our own, would become extinct. It is common to discuss nuclear war as a low-probabillity event. But is this true? We know of
five occcasions during the last 30 years when either the U.S. or Russia believed it was under attack and prepared a counter-attack. The most recent of these near
misses occurred after the end of the Cold War on Jan. 25, 1995, when the Russians mistook a U.S. weather rocket launched from Norway for a possible attack .
Jan. 25, 1995, was an ordinary day with no major crisis involving the U.S. and Russia. But, unknown to almost every inhabitant on the planet, a misunderstanding
led to the potential for a nuclear war. The ready alert status of nuclear weapons that existed in 1995 remains in place today.
Page 26
Plan
Thus the plan: the United States federal government should substantially increase its
investment of all necessary resources toward the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration for the purpose of increasing data mining Earth ocean information.
Page 27
Solvency
Contention 4 is solvency
Additional investment key
National Academy of Sciences 2 [private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
general welfare, 2002, ASSESSMENT OF THE USEFULNESS AND AVAILABILITY OF NASAS EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE MISSION DATA
http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/cs/groups/ssbsite/documents/webpage/ssb_051716.pdf, ABirenbaum]
Charge 2. How useful are current data collections and archives from NASAs science missions as resources in support of high priority
scientific studies in each Enterprise [i.e., NASAs Earth Science Enterprise and Space Science Enterprise]? How well are areas such as
data preservation, documentation, validation, and quality control being addressed? Are there significant obstacles to appropriately
broad scientific use of the data? Are there impediments to distribution of derived data sets? Are there any changes in data handling
and data dissemination that would improve usefulness? The use of archival data has contributed to a number of scientific advances in
the earth and space sciences (e.g., confirmation of the Antarctic ozone hole and the accelerating expansion of the universe). The
large and growing number of userscoupled with the positive results of user surveys, external reviews, and the task groups own
experience with the data facilitiesattests to the usefulness of the data in a wide variety of investigations. Many data sets will grow
getting the most out of existing

data sets will require the development of software tools for handling the data
(e.g., for changing formats, subsetting large data sets, and querying and visualizing data sets) and improvements in
documentation, user interfaces, and technical and scientific support. These
improvements will be even more important for dealing with the projected growth in
the volume of data (one to two orders of magnitude over the next 5 years) and the increasing need to integrate
in value as the time period covered by the measurements lengthens. However,
disparate data sets for both research and applications purposes. Maintaining accessibility and compatibility with changing standards
for storage media, software tools, and so forth in the long term will present substantial challenges in terms of both cost and
management. Although issues of validation and quality control of individual data sets were not directly addressed in this study, the
task groups generally positive findings about data usefulness suggest that these issues do not now pose either major or widespread
obstacles to data use. However, they will require heightened attention in the future as demands on the active archives increase.
NASA data have the potential to benefit society in many ways, but in order to exploit
this potential it is necessary to provide support for the translation of scientific
data into data products that are tailored for specific applications. These data products must be easily
accessed and interpreted by people who are experts in the fields to which the data are being applied, but who
will very likely have limited or no training in fields for which the data were originally collected. The work of Earth Science Information
Partners, Regional Earth Science Application Centers, Infomarts, and similar applications programs is an important step in increasing
meeting the needs of the broader community would

require a very substantial additional investment of resources, and such investments should be
the usefulness of NASA data. However,
preceded by an assessment of the market for NASA information and a prioritization of investments according to cost-effectiveness
and likely impact. Charge 3. Keeping in mind that NASA receives appropriated funds for both mission development as well as analysis
of data from earlier or currently operating missions, is the balance between attention to mission planning and implementation versus
data utilization appropriate in terms of achieving the objective of the Enterprises? Should the fraction of a missions life-cycle cost
Declines in funding for analysis of space

science data in the 1990s have been reversed in recent years, although funding remains
insufficient for analyzing data during extended missions or after missions have been completed.
devoted to data analysis, processing, storage and accessibility be changed?
Page 28

Solvency
NASA key- directly informs policymakers, creates the necessary partnerships
CCES 12 [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, an independent nonprofit organization working to promote practical,
effective policies and actions to address the twin challenges of energy and climate change, February 2012, CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION: WHAT FEDERAL AGENCIES ARE DOING http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/federal-agencies-adaptation.pdf, ABirenbaum]
NASA advances our understanding about the global and regional integrated Earth system
by sponsoring research, collecting observations from space, developing technologies, and
communicating scientific information. The agency provides information on solar activity, sea level rise, the
temperature of the atmosphere and the oceans, the state of the ozone layer, air pollution, and changes in sea ice and land ice.
Sea level rise, extreme heat events, changes in storm intensity and frequency, inland and coastal flooding, beach erosion, winds,
storm surge, and changes in availability of electricity and water already pose risks to NASAS mission, operations and services. NASA
manages risk proactively and in an integrated fashion. Consideration of climate variability and extremes is just one of many factors
included in existing discussions and decisions regarding risk to mission, risk to operations, risk to people, and risk to the environment.
A key element in managing these risks is making appropriate adaptations to institutional systems. Selected Initiatives and Strategies
NASA Policy StatementAdapting to Climate Change. Issued in response to E.O. 13514 and implementation guidance from CEQ, NASA
released a policy statement on climate change adaptation in May 2011. The policy directs NASA to develop and publish an adaptation
plan by June 2012 and meet other deadlines specified by the Implementing Instructions released by CEQ. The Senior Sustainability
Officer will be responsible for implementing adaptive actions, working with NASA Center Sustainability Officers who will coordinate
Center adaptation activities.271 NASA Earth Science Division, Applied Sciences Program: Climate Applications Area.
The
Applied Sciences Program develops innovative uses and practical benefits of NASA Earth science data, scientific
knowledge, and technology, creating a bridge between the data and knowledge generated by
NASA Earth Science Division and the needs of decision makers and the public. The Applied Science Program includes
eight application areas, including Agriculture, Air Quality, Climate, Ecological Forecasting, Public Health, Natural Disasters, Water
Resources, and Weather. The Climate Applications area concentrates on using NASAs Earth science information to support
assessments, policy analyses, and implementation in planning and response to climate change. The Climate Application area has a
special focus on enhancing economic and policy decision-making models and tools with Earth-science information.272 Resilience and
Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshops. NASA has established a voluntary initiative for NASA Centers to identify and manage their
site- specific climate risks in a workshop setting, working in collaboration with NASA climate scientists, and NASA Headquarters
institutional managers. Thus far three workshops have taken place and two more are currently scheduled in 2012.The workshops are
based on an approach first utilized by NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies with New York City in conjunction with New York
NASA has refined the approach and successfully

applied it to NASA Centers for their use and the use of their surrounding communities. The approach
Citys broader sustainability plan (PlaNYC 2030)273.
emphasizes three important aspects of seeking solutions in the win-win-win overlap area of disaster management, sustainability
and climate adaptation (as illustrated in the following graphic) to optimize benefits. From an infrastructure perspective, a long view of
adaptation, implemented through modest changes to renewal investments rather than through adaptation- exclusive investments,
helps minimize costs and negative impacts. Adaptation involves planning and management of risks related to environmental changes
and variability in order to reduce negative effects and takes advantage of new opportunities to increase efficiency and build in
resilience and flexibility. Adaptation planning recognizes the need to address future risks and requirements while managing the
current and changing environment. NASAs current workshop approach has matured to a process comprising four major elements
depicted in the diagram below. Programs and Institutional Mechanisms NASA-funded researchers develop predictive climate models,
heavily informed by NASA-produced observations, including downscaled regional models for use by decision-makers and adaptation
Science-based decision support tools that incorporate NASA data and

models into frameworks for policymakers, natural resource managers, and public health officials are in
planners.
use and new ones designed to meet new risk requirements are in development. For example: In collaboration with the Center for
Disease Control (CDC) and Indiana University, NASA has ongoing pilot projects working with the communities of Philadelphia, PA,
Dayton, OH, and Phoenix, AZ to improve their heat watch/warning systems through the development of tools that integrate NASA
satellite data products with social and health data. NASA is making available information products regarding Center- specific climate,
weather, and climate hazards developed for internal risk management use with surrounding communities. By seeking and leveraging
partnerships with state and local governments to protect infrastructure and communities of mutual concern, NASA is assisting the
Nation in building resilience while minimizing expenditures. To develop a risk-based response to climate change grounded in the best
available science, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg requested NASAs assistance in understanding the risks of a changing
climate on the citys critical infrastructure. NASA is sharing with other communities the lessons learned from helping New York City
plan strategies for resilience. NASA is also applying the best practices learned at Stennis Space Center in the aftermath of Hurricane
Katrina to its NASA Centers and their communities. NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup. The CASI
Workgroup assists in the development of climate adaptation strategies for NASA as whole and for individual Research Centers across
the country.274 The Workgroup has compiled historic climate and climate projections with associated uncertainties for each Center, is
creating an inventory of climate and climate impact data and project activities within NASA, assessing adaptation approaches and
Center-level planning strategies, recommending future research initiatives that fill gaps, and leading thematic and region-specific
Page 29

workshops. Each Center faces unique climate hazards and impacts. The following list describes the major research areas and
accomplishments at each Center. Ames Research Center (ARC) - Analyzed historical and projected climate and land use change for
the surrounding region; linked projected changes to increased drought and flood risk, sea level rise, and to declines in ecosystem
services; hosted 3-day Resilience & Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop and half day climate symposium. Dryden Flight Research
Center (DFRC) - Developed a vulnerability assessment based on an extreme precipitation scenario known as ARkStorm; hosted 1.5
day technical Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation in the Mojave Region. Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) - Researched
impacts of climate change on forest health by merging NASA ecosystem modeling (Biome-BGC) and forest modeling (UFORE- iTree).
Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) - Analyzed relative importance of natural variability (including the El Nio Southern Oscillation), and
long-term trends in Californias long term precipitation records. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) - Completed a GIS analysis of sea level
rise hazards to identify first order vulnerabilities of more than 25 different facility, infrastructure, and natural and archaeological
resource categories; hosted 3-day Resilience & Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop. Langley Research Center (LaRC) - Applied the
Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) storm surge model to the geographic location of LaRC and adjacent Langley Air Force Base;
hosted 3-day Resilience & Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) - Assessed the impacts of
climate and extreme weather on the centers buildings and infrastructure; installed local weather stations to identify and characterize
extreme events at fine spatial scales. Stennis Space Center (SSC) - Developed baseline storm surge inundation scenarios and
investigated available storm surge models TOOLS AND RESOURCES Global Climate Change Website. NASA maintains a public website
that contains general information about climate change, including key indicators, evidence, causes, effects, and uncertainty of
climate change. Recent news and events are also collected on the site.275 Internal Communication. NASA has an internal electronic
portal for climate impacts and adaptation and maintains a sophisticated climate risk communication approach that applies best
practices identified in the literature as shown is the following Table: Leveraged Resources. NASA understands that in these austere
NASA seeks out partnerships, coalitions,

and alliances to implement its initiatives, projects and programs to share and
leverage resources. A prime example is NASA Kennedy Space Centers Dune Vulnerability Team which is managing the
times there is a need to be creative and innovative to get things done.
risk of eroding beach dunes that threaten NASAs launch pads exposure to the sea. Currently, NASA is exploring several opportunities
to work with community stakeholders through various kinds of relationships to manage climate risks and other mutual benefits.
NASAs current framework for these relationships is shown in the following graphic:
Page 30
Solvency
NASA data mining allows for worldwide access- volume of data makes
NASA key
Han et al. 2 [JiAWEI HAN, profcs.TOr In the Ucpnrtnieni of Computer Science in the University of lllinois at Urbana-C
Champaign, Russ B. ALTMAN, associate professor of genetics and medicine Department of Genetics at Stanford University, VlPIN
KUMAR, Director of tbe Army Higb Performance Computing Research Center and a professor in tbe Computer Science Department at
the Universit)' of Minnesota, Minneapolis, HEIKKI MANNILA, Research Director of the HUT Basic Research Unit in the Department of
Computer Science at the University' of Helsinki, Finland., DARYL PRFGIBON, member of AT&T Labs, Researcb, Florbam Park, NJ, August
2002, Emerging Applications in Data Mining COMMUNICATIONS OF THE AC, Vol. 45, No 8, ABirenbaum]
Geospatial Data The scope, coverage and volume of digital geographic data sets have grown rapidly in recent years due to the
progress in data collection and data processing technologies. These data sets include digital data of all sorts, created, processed,
and disseminated by government- and private-sector agencies on land use and socioeconomic infrastructure; vast amounts of
georeferenced digital imagery and video data acquired through high-resolution remote sensing systems and other monitoring
devices; geographic and spatiotemporal data collected by global posi- tioning systems, as well as other position-aware devices,
including cellular phones, in-vehicle naviga- tion systems, and wireless Internet clients; and digital geographic data repositories on
U.S. National Spatial Data Infrastructure, facilitate data sharing and interoperability, making enormous amounts of
space-related data sharable and analyzable worldwide. The increasing volume and diversity
of digital geographic data easily overwhelm traditional spatial analysis techniques that handle
the Web. Moreover, information infrastructure initiatives, including the
only limited and homogeneous data sets with high-computational bur- den. To discover new and unexpected patterns, trends,
and relationships embedded within Iarge and diverse geographic data sets , several recent studies of geospatial data mining
[4] have developed a number of sophisticated and scalable spatial clustering algorithms, outlier analysis techniques, spatial
classification and association analysis methods, and spatial data-cleaning and integration tools. Nevertheless, considering the
challenges posed by the already enormous and increasing amount of spatial data, geospatial data mining is in its infancy. Lots of
research needs to be done, especially concerning the following pressing issues: Developing and supporting geographic data warehouses. Although data warehouses are central to the knowledge discovery process, no true geospatial data warehouse exists today.
Creating one requires solutions to problems in geographic and temporal data compatibility, including reconciling semantics, referencing systems, geometry, accuracy, and precision. Creating a warehouse might also need to solve the problems of efficient
computation of sophisticated spatial aggregations, as well as how to handle spatial- related data streams. However, spatial data
warehouses are likely to eventually play an essential role in geospatial information exchanges and data mining, so it is critical that
we develop and support such an infrastructure today. Exploring and mining richer geographic data types. Geographic data sets are
moving beyond the well- structured vector and raster formats to include semi- structured and unstructured data, especially
georeferenced stream data and multimedia data. Tech- niques have to be developed to handle spatiotemporal data, robust
geographic concept hierarchies and gran- ularities, and sophisticated geographic relationships, including non-Euclidean distances,
direction, connec- tivity, attributed geographic space (such as terrain), and constrained interaction structures (such as net- works).
Reaching a broader user community. Geospatial data mining needs to go beyond researchers to also deliver its benefits to genera!
users. This requires high-level user interfaces and visualization tools that aid diverse users in geospatial data mining. Moreover, these
interfaces and tools have to be integrated with existing geographical information systems and database systems to guide users
searching for geographic knowledge, interpreting and visualizing discovered knowledge, and using the discovered geographic
large amount of climate data

acquired through NASA's Earth-observation satellites, terrestrial observations, and ecosystem
models offers an unprecedented opportunity for predicting and preventing
future ecological problems by managing the ecology and health of the planet. Such data consists of
a sequence of global snapshots of the Earth, typically available at monthly intervals, including various atmospheric,
land, and ocean variables (such as sea surface temperature, precipitation, and net primary production, or the net
photosynthetic accumulation of carbon by plants). Due to the nature and scale of this data, data mining techniques
can play a major role in the automatic extraction and analysis of interesting patterns, thus
knowledge in their decision making. Climate Data and the Earth's Ecosystems The
complementing existing statistical techniques. Earth science data mining consists of two main components: the modeling of
ecological data; and the design of efficient algorithms for finding spatiotemporal patterns. An important goal is the discovery of
teleconnection patterns, or recurring and persistent climate patterns spanning vast geographical regions. They manifest themselves
as spatiotemporal relationships among ecological variables observed at variotis locations on the Earth and are
understanding
critical for
how the ecosystems various elements interact with one another. Clustering techniques, which
divide data into meaningful or useful groups, help automate the discovery ot teleconnections [5, 6]. Specifically, clustering identifies
regions of the Earth whose con- stituent points have similar short- and long-term climate characteristics. By analyzing correlations
among climate variables across these regions, it is possible to rediscover existing patterns (such as tbe El Niiio periodic oceanatmosphere disruption in the tropical Pacific Ocean), as well as new, previously unrecognized teleconnections. An alternative
Page 31

approacb is to convert the time series into sequences of events, then apply existing association-rule techniques to discover
interesting patterns in tbe sequences.
Page 32
Solvency
Accurate climate records key to influencing policymakers must be able
to withstand relentless attack
Anderson 7- Jim Anderson, Philip S. Weld Professor in the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Decadal
Survey: CLARREO Workshop http://www.docstoc.com/docs/30803707/DRAFT-Decadal-Survey-%28DS%29-CLARREO-Workshop-ReportEdited-by
The ability of this CLARREO mission to calibrate passive sensors on-orbit via SI traceability and to address sampling issues without subsidiary information is a
notable departure from the current strategy pursued for climate satellite records. The necessity for this departure was recognized by the NRC as follows: NRC
Objective: Global Benchmark Climate Record Benchmark Observations: What are they? The
NRC Decadal Survey recognized that when the

global climate record emerges as a significant contributor to public policy (societal) decisions, that record
will be attacked relentlessly. If the climate record cannot stand up to those attacks, the record cannot
effectively serve society. Recognition of this led to the requirement that the design of climate observing and monitoring systems from space must
ensure the establishment of global, long-term climate records, which are of high accuracy, tested for systematic errors onorbit, and tied to irrefutable standards such as those maintained in the U.S. by the National Institute of Standards and Technology For the NRC
report, this mission definition was essential for the prioritization process that fully considered scientific/societal
impact, cost, ability to complement other systems, degree of readiness, risk mitigation, and contributions to other thematic area s. The ASIC3 report also chose a
CLARREO-like mission as one of its high priority recommendations based on similar requirements. Once the context of responsiveness to societal objectives is
understood, the path leading all the way to details of instrument design may be defined. A summary of requirements flowdown from high level science
requirements to data products to mission and payload requirements for the IR and GPS components is included below.
Page 33
Solvency
NASA is the only agency in the world that can coordinate all the benefits
of Earth Observation research.
Killeen 5
[Dr. Timothy L. Killeen, Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research, NASA Earth Science, Hearing Before the
House Science Committee, 42805, p. 65., http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109hhrg20736/html/CHRG-109hhrg20736.htm]
NASA plays a crucial role in the fabricthe intellectual fabric of capacity and human
capital in the Nation . I think the AAAS mentions that NASA provides 34 percent of the funding to
our whole national Earth science capability, environmental sciences capability. So it is a dominant
agency. But its role isthe focus, as Berrien points out, on the research, on the seed corn, on the new technologies, on the innovation
that then can be extended and utilized more broadly to support society through operational capabilities. And I think the history has
shown that it does that extremely well. The doors have opened on plate tectonics, air pollution, weather, climate, many of the
examples you say could be filled up withthere are numerous examples where we could point to NASAs innovation opening
the work of the past decades has suggested

that we need to take this life science analogy and look at the Earth as a system . We are capable of looking
intellectual doors. I think we stand at a point in history where
at the Earth as a system and actually investigating its metabolism, its function across a whole range of parameters and factors. NASA
NASA is probably the only agency in the world that has the wherewithal,
the track record, and the access to the human capital to make that happen. And that is
will support that.
going to be something that is so important for future generations, and it is going to drive economic benefits.
Page 34
Solvency
Global warming causes extinction and adaptation is key- 12,000 peer reviewed
studies prove
Rodgers 14
[Paul Rodgers, contributor to Forbes Magazine and wrote for The Economist, The Independent, The Telegraph, and
New Statesman, 3/31/2014, Climate Change: We Can Adapt, Says IPCC
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulrodgers/2014/03/31/climate-change-is-real-but-its-not-the-endof-the-world-says-ipcc/, ABirenbaum]
Global warming will have severe, pervasive and irreversible effects, touching everyone on the
planet, says the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. People can expect to face more floods, droughts and
violent storms as emissions of carbon dioxide, mostly from burning fossil fuels, feed the greenhouse effect and drive up
global temperatures. A large fraction of species will face extinction and both human conflict and
poverty will increase as resources dwindle, said the report, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,
and Vulnerability. These are multibillion dollar events that the rich are going to have to pay for, and theres a limit to what they can
pay, said IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri. English: Rajendra K. Pachauri, the chair of th... Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Photo by Mikhail Evstafiev (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Yet for the first time, the IPCC
is offering a glimmer of hope. It acknowledges that some of the changes will be beneficial including higher crop yields in places like
Canada, Europe and Central Asia and that in others cases, people will be able to adapt to them. The really big breakthrough in this
report is the new idea of thinking about managing climate change, said Dr Chris Field, the global ecology director at the Carnegie
Institution in Washington and a co-chairman of the report. We have a lot of the tools for dealing effectively with it. We just need to be
smart about it. Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has never been tried, said Field. Governments, firms, and
communities around the world are building experience with adaptation. This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more
adaptations that will be important as climate and society continue to change. Adaptations
could include better flood defences or building houses that can withstand tropical cyclones.
ambitious
Vicente Barros, another co-chairman, said: Investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the
future. Despite the shift, one scientist, Professor Richard Tol, an economist at Sussex University, withdrew his name from the report
claiming that it was still too alarmist. Mean surface temperature change for 19992008 ... Mean surface temperature change for
19992008 relative to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980 (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Previous reports from the IPCC have
been criticized for their apocalyptic tone and a perceived bias against capitalism. The last report, in 2007, was criticized for errors,
particularly a prediction that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035. Perhaps more significantly, the previous hectoring has
done little to reduce carbon emissions, which have risen by half from more than 20m tonnes to over 30m tonnes since 1990. Global
annual fossil fuel carbon dioxide emiss... Global annual fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions through year 2007, in million metric
tonnes of carbon, as reported by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/home.html. (Photo credit:
Wikipedia) But the policy document, agreed at a meeting in Yokohama, Japan, on 31March after a week of intense discussions, is more
climate change is a real threat. Before we thought we knew this was happening, but
now we have overwhelming evidence, said Dr Saleemul Huq, a researcher with the International Institute for
Environment and Development and the lead author on one of the chapters. The report, written by 300 experts
from 70 countries, is based on 12,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers , more than double the
confident than ever that
evidence previously available. In the past, people could have damaged the Earths climate out of ignorance, said Michel Jarraud,
secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organivation. Now, ignorance is no longer a good excuse. He described the report as
the most solid evidence you can get in any scientific discipline. It predicts that the seas will become more acidic, killing coral reefs
and damaging shellfish, and that many sea creatures will move as temperatures rise. In Antarctica and some tropical waters, catches
could be halved. Yields for corn, rice and wheat will decline between now and 2050, with the worst projections showing them falling
by a quarter. Going into the future, the risks only increase, and these are about people, the impacts on crops, on the availability of
water and particularly, the extreme events on peoples lives and livelihoods, said Professor Neil Adger of the University of Exeter.
People are going to become more vulnerable to sinking deeper into poverty, said Dr Maggie Opondo of the University of Nairobi.
Page 35
Solvency
Must act now some parts of the world are near a tipping point
The Guardian 14 [published March 28, 2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/28/ipcc-reportclimate-change-report-human-natural-systems, Accessed 9/9/14]

Climate change has already left its mark "on all continents and across the
oceans", damaging food crops, spreading disease, and melting glaciers, according to
the leaked text of a blockbuster UN climate science report due out on Monday. Government officials and scientists are gathered in
Yokohama this week to wrangle over every line of a summary of the report before the final wording is released on Monday the first
update in seven years. Nearly 500 people must sign off on the exact wording of the summary, including the 66 expert authors, 271
officials from 115 countries, and 57 observers. But governments have already signed off on the critical finding that
climate
change is already having an effect, and that even a small amount of warming in the future could lead to
"abrupt and irreversible changes", according to documents seen by the Guardian. "In recent decades, changes in climate have
caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans," the final report from the Intergovernmental
Some parts of the world could soon be at a tipping point.

For others, that tipping point has already arrived. "Both warm water coral reef and Arctic
Panel on Climate Change will say.
ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible regime shifts," the approved version of the report will say. This will be the second of
three reports on the causes, consequences of and solutions to climate change, drawing on researchers from around the world. The
first report, released last September in Stockholm, found humans were the "dominant cause" of climate change, and warned that
much of the world's fossil fuel reserves would have to stay in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change. This report will, for the
The
thinking behind the decision was to encourage governments to prepare for the full
range of potential consequences under climate change. It's much more about what are the
first time, look at the effects of climate change as a series of risks with those risks multiplying as temperatures warm.
smart things to do then what do we know with absolute certainty," said Chris Field, one of the co-chairs overseeing the report. "If we
want to take a smart approach to the future, we need to consider a full range of possible outcomes and that means not only the more
likely outcomes, but also outcomes for truly catastrophic impacts, even if those are lower probability," he said. The gravest of those
risks was to people in low-lying coastal areas and on small islands, because of storm surges, coastal flooding and sea-level rise. But
people living in large urban areas would also be at risk from inland flooding that wipes out homes and businesses, water treatment
centres and power plants, as well as from extreme heatwaves. Food production was also at risk, the report said, from drought,
flooding, and changing rainfall patterns.
Crop yields could decline by 2% a decade over the rest of the century.
Fisheries will also be affected, with ocean chemistry thrown off balance by climate change. Some fish in the tropics could
become extinct. Other species, especially in northern latitudes, are on the move. Drought could put safe drinking water in short
supply. Storms could wipe out electricity stations, and damage other infrastructure, the report is expected to say.
Those risks will not be borne equally, according to draft versions of the report circulated before the meeting. The poor, the young and
the elderly in all countries will all be more vulnerable to climate risks. Climate change will slow down economic growth, and create
The
biggest potential risk, however, was of a number of those scenarios unfolding at
the same time, leading to conflicts and wars, or turning regional problem into
a global crisis, said Saleemul Haq, a senior fellow of the International Institute for Environment and Development and one
new "poverty traps". Some areas of the world will also be more vulnerable such as south Asia and south-east Asia.
of the authors of the report. "The really scary impacts are when things start getting together globally," he said. "If you have a crisis in
two or three places around the world, suddenly it's not a local crisis. It is a global crisis, and the repercussions of things going bad in
several different places are very severe." There was controversy in the run-up to the report's release when one of the 70 authors of a
draft said he had pulled out of the writing team because it was "alarmist" about the threat. Prof Richard Tol, an economist at Sussex
University, said he disagreed with some findings of the summary. But British officials branded his assessment of the economic costs of
climate change as "deeply misleading". The report argues that the likelihood and potential consequences of many of these risks could
be lowered if ambitious action is taken to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. It also finds that
a certain
amount of warming is already locked in, and that in some instances there is no way to
escape the effects of climate change. The 2007 report on the effects of climate change contained an error
governments if they act now can help protect populations from those risks. But the report also acknowledges that
that damaged the credibility of the UN climate panel, the erroneous claim that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035. This
year's report will be subject to far more rigorous scrutiny, scientists said. It will also benefit from an explosion of scientific research.
The number of scientific publications on the impacts of climate change doubled between 2005 and 2010, the report will say.
Researchers said they also hoped to bring a fresh take on the issue. They said they hoped the reframing of the issue as a series of
Page 36

risks would help governments respond more rapidly to climate change. "Previously the IPCC was accused of being very conservative,"
said Gary Yohe, professor of economics and environmental studies at Wesleyan University, one of the authors of the report. "This
allows them to be less conservative without being open to criticism that they are just trying to scare people to death."
Page 37

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Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

herculean task NASA faces in trying to process the

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Climate change causes extinction- scientific consensusdoing nothing guarantees

a catastrophic climate change scenario is

temperatures are rising, and that global warming is a serious

overwhelming scientific evidence showing positive correlations between the level of

the risks of a catastrophic anthropogenic climate change can

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

an increasing challenge facing computer scientists is

provide researchers direction in analyzing large unlabeled climate

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Ocean dynamics modeling is essential for predicting the impact of

data mining through a variety of

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Knowledge discovery from temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal data is

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

impact of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction on society, business,

Its all in the game.- Omar

most accurate results within a

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

20% of the emitted anthropogenic

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

energy that is added to the ocean remains available to be transferred

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

The ability to characterize or

Changes in the volume of water

improve the ability to

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

displacement due to such climate change is

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Climate change -related disasters not only affect

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

induce massive nonlinear societal events and armed conflict between

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

variations in stocks of usable land and

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

**We disagree with the authors use of gendered language

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

it is unclear whether fish stocks , and even particular species, will

uncertainty creates great

Its all in the game.- Omar

Aaron and Liana aff- Bellaire High school

Should deterrence fail, the Alliance must prepare for crisis