Power Profiling and Inherent Lag Prediction of a

Wind Power Generating System for its Integration to

an Energy Storage System
Vanaja Rao, Student Member, IEEE, Adam Bedford, Maizura Mokhtar, Member, Joe M. Howe
Centre for Energy and Power Management, University of Central Lancashire (UCLan)
Preston, PR1 2HE, UK.
{VRao, ABedford1, MMokhtar, JMHowe}@uclan.ac.uk

AbstractA key challenge within the power sector is to

address the issue of intermittency. Intermittency is responsible
for reducing the efficiency of the national infrastructure and can
compromise energy security. Increasing use of renewable energy
can cause the increasing intermittency. This is an important issue
that needs to be dealt with. Predictive mechanisms based on
historical data have been used previously to try and address
energy security with renewables. However, the effectiveness of
the predictive mechanisms are low. Going forward, energy storage
systems will play a key role in securing the energy supply provided
by renewables. Efficient use of energy storage relies on information about the generator system that it is coupled with. This
paper aims to show that despite the inherent characteristics of
renewable energy generation, the nature of mechanical generation
of renewable systems can be equated and modelled. The model
can provide the information required for energy storage coupling.
The model equates the inherent lag using the torque values of the
generator, as well as the generators velocity. The model is part
of a larger framework that predicts the output power profile of
the renewables, using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The
predictive information can further improve the performance of
the coupled energy storage system and address intermittency.
Index TermsIntermittency, Generation, Adaptive Algorithms, Sliding Window, Predictive, Energy Storage, Energy
Security

I. I NTRODUCTION
A key challenge for the energy sector is accounting for and
predicting the intermittency of renewable generation. Intermittency can increase energy losses within the generators and the
national grids [8]. It also means that, at present, intermittent
renewables cannot be relied on for energy security [2].
Energy storage is seen as a possible mechanism to manage
intermittency [2][3]. Depending on the type of storage systems,
analyses of both input and output data from the renewable
power generating system are required to optimise the performance of the energy storage system. Since most energy
generating systems can be seen as a series of linked electromechanical systems, they will obey the basic rules of the linked
electrical and mechanical systems. Most importantly, as a
result, they will exhibit a delay between the input force (torque)
and the generator (velocity) output. This delay can therefore be
modelled, and be used to inform energy storage technologies.
The inherent delay presented to the energy storage technologies
helps address intermittency.

To date, there are a number of research works that describe

how to predict the energy output produced from renewables.
The prediction is performed based on historical data [1][6][13].
However, little work has been done to predict inherent delay.
This paper seeks to address this, by defining a framework,
under which all relevant information, i.e. energy output from
renewables and the inherent delay of the generator system
can be provided. This information will be useful to optimise
the energy storage operations to address intermittency. The
energy profile/data of the generating system is provided to
the energy storage system(s) for the purposes of smoothing
and compensation [7]. The purpose of this paper is, therefore,
to present a framework that demonstrates how the relevant
information from renewables, more specifically from a Wind
Power Generation (WPG) system, can be obtained and is useful
to inform energy storage technologies.
This paper is divided into 4 sections. Section II indicates
that lag exists in a WPG system, and based on the lag informaR
tion, a Simulink
model is developed that models the inherent
delay within the system. Methods used to calculate the inherent
lag used within the model data is discussed in Section II-B;
and initial results of these analyses are presented in Section
III. Section IV briefly describes the future intended work on
energy profile prediction. Section V concludes the paper by
summarising the proposed framework and its contribution to
estimating the inherent lag of the WPG system, which therefore
helps in effective coupling with an energy storage system.
II. F RAMEWORK FOR R ENEWABLE E NERGY P ROFILING
The proposed framework consists of a correlation component (Sec. II-C) and a predictive mechanism that aims to
provide the relevant information required for effective energy
storage operations. The proposed framework is indicated in
Fig. 1. An example of the predictive mechanism considered is
the Artificial Neural Network [5][12]. The correlation system
is responsible for validating the inherent lag of the generator
system.
A. Generator Model
As a proof-of-concept, a model of the WPG system is first
developed to test the correlation component of the framework.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

Flow-chart of the framework for a power profile predictive controller for the WPG System

Flow-chart of the framework for a power profile predictive controller for a simulated Wind Power Generating (WPG) System

Fig. 2 shows how the generator model is incorporated to the

framework presented in Fig. 1.
Wind power, like other forms of mechanical generation, is
subject to a lag period that results from the interaction between
the driving and resultant torque. This lag occurs due to the
variable input to the generator. This is an obvious feature when
it comes to WPG, because wind is of a variable nature.
Mechanical generation is incapable of reacting instantaneously to an input torque. The resulting lag period is dependent on the balance of torque in the system and therefore
the loading of the generator. The net torque resulting from the
input torque and the generator torque is proportional to the
rotational inertia of the system. This is as illustrated in Fig. 3.
The generator in the WPG system behaves much like a
rotational damper since it is removing energy from the system
[14]. The combination of damping and the rotational inertia
causes the output to lag behind the input. This is presented
via equations in Section II-B. By measuring the input torque
and comparing it with the resultant output power, the inherent
lag value can be obtained.
The damping of a WPG system is known to contribute
towards the lag in the output, where the majority of the
R
damping will be provided by the generator itself. A Simulink
model simplifying the WPG system output can be modelled
based on how energy output is obtained from rotational based
energy generating system, produced based on the input torque
R
of the system. Fig. 4 shows the Simulink
model for the

Fig. 3.

Coupled Generator-Dynamometer System.

WPG system. The WPG system is an example of a polyphasic

generator.
B. Polyphasic generator
For a polyphasic generator, the torque resulting from the
generator will be the result of all the phases, and as such, the
polyphasic power term (P ) for a 3-phase system would be
equated as follows:

Fig. 4.

Simulink Model for Rotational System

= P0 + P120 + P120
2 2
2 N 0 3
= 0

Rgen 2

0, 23 , 23

0, 23 , 32

cos 2( + i ) (4)

and:

is the angular displacement in radian, N is the number of

turns, is the magnetic Flux value and Rgen is the generator
resistance in .
The power term P is proportional to sin2 . Therefore, the
total power in a 3-phase system would be proportional to:
3
sin2 () + sin2 ( + 120 ) + sin2 ( 120 ) =
2

(1)

3 1
sin ( + i ) =
2 2
2

(2)

This can be proven by looking at the phasor for the system as

illustrated in Fig. 5.

2
2
0, 3 , 3

cos 2( + i )

4
4
0, 3 , 3

cos 2

4
4
0, 3 , 3

cos i + sin 2

sin i

=0

(5)

For a rotating generator, ignoring the torsional spring characteristic, the generator torque equation would be as follows:
P
0

(6)

02 3 N 2 20

= I00 + 0
0 2 Rgen

(7)

(t) = I00 +
Through substitution of P in (1):
(t) = I00 +
Therefore:
00 =

1
( (t) 0 )
I

(8)

3N 2 20
2Rgen

(9)

and:
=
is defined as:
Fig. 5.

Phasor Diagrams for & 2, ={0,

sin2 ( + i ) =
Therefore,

2
, 2
}
3
3

1
(1 cos 2( + i ))
2

(10)
I
Equation (8) shows the simplified form of a coupled system,
where the damping constant is provided by the dynamics of
the generator. To predict the inherent lag in this system, it
is necessary to solve (8), and this can be partially achieved
through the application of Laplace transforms (11)(12).
=

(3)

L {00 } =

1
L { (t)} L {0 }
I

(s) =

(0)
0 (0)
1

(s)
+
+
Is2 + s
s
s2 + s

A(s) =

(0)
s

If:
&

B(s) =

(11)

(12)

0 (0)
s2 + s

therefore:
(s) = H(s) (s) + A(s) + B(s)

(13)

where, I = Moment of Inertia (kgm2 ), = Power-Linked

Rotational Damping (kgm2 s1 rad1 ), and = Torque (N m).
The Laplace transforms resulted in a transfer function which
can be contributed to the system model indicated in Fig. 4:
H(s) =

1
Is2 + s

Fig. 6.

Smoothed Random Input Profile Generator Subsystem

(14)

And as a result of (14), the following equation is obtained:

(t) = L1 {H(s) (s)} + A(t) + B(t)

(15)

A(t) = (0)

(16)

where,

and
B(t) =

0 (0)
1 et

(17)

R
Simulink
is used to model the transfer function (15).
From this model, the inherent lag of the WPG system can be
obtained. The capacity for initial conditions has been included,
but for the first few tests, these values have been set to zero,
because the device is initially stationary. I and are set to 1,
as shown in Fig. 4.
At the present stage of the work (proof-of-concept), the
input torque is provided from a pseudo-random input produced
from the model depicted in Fig. 6. The simulation was conducted with unit constants. Since this work will only be of use
if it applies to all potential inputs, as a proof-of-concept, the
pseudo-random input is chosen. The input should ideally be
random, to replicate the inherent nature of the inputs to the
WPG system (the inherent nature of the wind), however the
repeatability of the pseudo-random input is useful for testing.

Fig. 7.

Velocity Output from Rotational System

This correlation function is the Pearsons Product Moment

Correlation Coefficient [9] applied to a sliding frame of
reference (19).
P
[(x x
) (y y)]
q
r = qP
(19)
2 P
2
(x x
)
(y y)
A small sample size is used. A small sample y is taken
from the output and compared, with a varying lag d, to a
sample from the input at a given location x. This will give a
correlation and a predicted lag at that sampling location. x, y
and their subsets xs , ys are defined below:
x R : < x < xs x
y R : < y < ys y
where in our case:

C. Correlation

xs = {x0 , , x0+w }

The inherent lag of the generator system can also be

estimated and validated through the use of correlation. An
example of the correlation algorithm [10] is shown in (18).

ys = {yd , , yd+w }

[(x(i) x
) (y(i d) y)]
r
r(d) = rPi
2 P
2
(x(i) x
)
(y(i d) y)
i

(18)

If x0 and y0 are the most recent values, from (19) gives us

(20).
P
[(xs x
s ) (ys ys )]
q
r = qP
(20)
2 P
2
(xs x
s )
(ys ys )
The small sample size helps to ease the training process
for the ANN (Fig. 1). As indicated in Introduction, it is used

Fig. 8.

Graphical representation of the input/output variables (x, y)

to predict the inherent lag and the energy profile of the WPG
system. The x, y and r values are:
x is the output velocity of the generator model (or the
output from the generator itself (Fig. 1)).
y is the torque value.
r is the correlational coefficient of the lag value.
The method using the correlation component application
gives us the confidence of the correlation for the delay (d)
that will occur between the input and the output values of
the system. A higher correlation coefficient (r) value signifies
better accuracy of the delay obtained from the model. This is
useful in validating the model proposed to obtain the inherent
lag in the WPG system (Fig. 4).

For real-world data validation, a larger dataset will be gathered and the proposed subsampling and sampling techniques
will be applied to the input torque and the output velocity
values, to which the correlation will be performed. A Gaussian
function will be applied to the correlation of the data, in order
to obtain the peak correlation values. The torque and velocity
values used to obtain the peak correlation will be used to train
the ANN.
In the future, the framework presented in Fig. 2 will require
the recorded data from a WPG system, in order to provide
an accurate representation of the WPG system Fig. 1. The
recorded data can also be used to validate the generator model
presented in Fig. 4.

III. S IMULATION R ESULTS

IV. F UTURE WORK : P REDICTING THE E NERGY P ROFILE

The inherent delay in the system presented in Fig. 4 can

be seen in Fig. 7. It can also be seen that the two profiles,
although similar, are distinctly different. Fig. 8 shows how the
correlation of the torque and power output (r), as presented
in Sec. II-C, is a representative of the delay indicated in
Fig 7. Figure 8 illustrates the correlation of the torque and
the velocity output as presented in Sec. II-C obtained for
w = 2s window, offset by d = 1.5s delay. This correlation
is performed only for a small sample of the input and output
data at a given location. The correlation value for an offset
time period of 1.5s is a good 92.9%.

The subsampling and correlation method suggested in Sec.

II-C can only predict the delay in retrospect. This makes it
of limited use, because a longer duration of prediction is
required for the optimise energy storage system operations.
The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is proposed to provide
such prediction. If by using suitable learning algorithm with the
ANN, could potentially predict both the energy profile from the
WPG system and its inherent delay, as well as providing online
training of the ANN that can allow for the ANN continuous
adaptation to variability (i.e. input source, wind) that affects
the WPG system. Long prediction and online adaptation can

be used to compensate for the generator variability when in use

with the energy storage system. Online adaptation (learning)
of the ANN, as a proof-of-concept are as follows:
1) Input torque data is fed to the generator model in order
to produce a simulated power output.
2) Simulated torque and power output is fed to the subsample correlator to produce the inherent delay.
3) The torque, power output and delay data is fed back to
the subsampler to produce an aligned data. Aligned data
is input data offset by the delay.
4) The aligned data is fed to the ANN to produce the
predicted energy profile required by the energy storage
system. As previously indicated the energy profile consist of the torque, power output and the inherent delay
from the WPG system.
5) The current and predicted energy profile are fed into the
learning algorithm that trains the ANN.
Online adaptation is carried out by applying the sliding window
reference technique, which will take batches or windows of the
aligned dataset offset This method will also help in finding the
peak correlations within the window frame for a large realworld dataset, making it easier to predict the inherent delay
and the power output in the Wind Power Generating (WPG)
system, in real world conditions. In the future, the model would
be replaced with sensor data taken from an operating WPG
system. The process is largely the same except that the step 1
is ignored as the output data is being provided by sensors. The
algorithm is trained in precisely the same way and therefore
this framework would allow for suitable adaptive algorithms
to be implemented into a real-world framework.
V. C ONCLUSION
The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a method of
addressing intermittency caused by renewable energy generation. The framework described in this paper is one route to
achieving this. The framework presented herein represents a
rotating device with inherent lag between the input and output
of the system. The paper shows that the inherent lag of an
energy generating system is a result of a transfer function, and
that of the critical system characteristics. These are the moment
of inertia and the power-linked rotational damping of the
system, which are both design characteristics. Therefore, it can
be modelled and, therefore, is predictable. The paper presents
the framework that incorporates and tests the transfer function,
and has demonstrated the potential of the presented framework
in predicting the inherent lag of an energy generating system.
The inherent lag information, together with other energy profile
data, is useful to inform the operations of a energy storage
system, in order to address intermittency and ensure energy
security.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research is part-funded by the University of Central
Lancashire (UCLan) and BAE Systems, UK.

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